Horse Racing: SUN ALL SET TO SHINE IN THE BIG ONE; Elsworth ace the pick in Ces.
I'M rubbing my hands at the prospect of picking up an estimated pounds 2.5 million on the totescoop6 this afternoon.
Unlike last Saturday when I was sure it wouldn't be won, I think it will be today, although it certainly won't be easy.
I will definitely be having a go but won't be too chuffed if it's won by someone with a pounds 2 line when I'm sitting with a sizeable perm.
It is, however, a fact that the big pots have been won by single line punters recently, so it can be done. But I recommend that you club together with a few mates and give yourself a better chance of hitting the jackpot.
Strangely enough the race that everyone thinks may be impossible to pick the winner could well end up being the least difficult to solve of the six. The Cesarewitch is one of the biggest handicaps of the year but it is often possible to put a line through several runners with, surprisingly, the draw being a hugely significant factor.
A high draw is essential which explains the drift in the market of Luca Cumani's Samurai Way who leapt to the front of the betting with a solid staying performance at Ascot, coming on the back of a cracking effort in the Ebor.
On the other hand the other ante post fancy Fair Along has been given a perfectly acceptable berth in stall 26. This individual is one of the best all-rounders in training at the moment and represents last year's winning combination of jockey Jamie Spencer and handler Philip Hobbs.
He hasn't been seen since finishing second in the Chester Cup in May but this wouldn't concern me in the least.
He will go close, as he often does, but I think there could well be one to beat him in the shape of David Elsworth's SUNLEY PEACE (3.55) who ran a huge third to Distinction in a decent conditions race over two miles at Ascot last time out and now finds himself having just 8st 1lb to carry here.
This is a seriously improving three-year-old who is now running over what will be his ideal trip. I believe there is every chance he will do the business.
The Champion Stakes is a much harder puzzle for totescoop6 punters to solve because I believe Notnowcato is a horse that needs to get his eye in after a break and I'm not convinced that he will be spot on for this event. He has the form but could be vulnerable.
I also believe that the other market leader, Creachadoir, could be suspect too. He may well come unstuck over the last two furlongs as he has looked for all the world like a miler in his career to date.
I really feel that both of them could get beaten today but finding one to do so won't be easy.
Aidan O'Brien's MOUNT NELSON (3.15) looked immensely promising as a two-year-old and the fact that the trainer has persevered with this horse suggests to me that he is certainly one that has to be included in today's perm.
In a normal week I would advise putting the top two up as a joint lay recommendation but the totescoop6 makes it a very tough race.
The Dewhurst Stakes is an absolute corker, as you would expect, and there is no way I would leave New Approach out of calculations.
The Irish raider was hugely impressive when comfortably beating Godolphin's Rio De La Plata, who reopposes today, at the Curragh last month.
But Jim Bolger's star, unbeaten in four outings, will have to be at least as good as he has looked to beat the John Gosden runner Raven's Pass who represents a bang in-form team.
The latter completed a three-timer with a scintillating display in the Solario Stakes when beating City Leaderby seven lengths.
Once again, however, I will be including a bigger priced runner and ever since I saw MCCARTNEY (2.40) win at Hamilton I have wanted to have Mark Johnston's horse on side and this one will most certainly be included in my perm.
Johnston believes his Champagne Stakes winner is entitled to take his chance after the In The Wings colt created a huge impression when slamming a quality field at Doncaster by an easy two and a half lengths. He had previously beaten a subsequent Group One winner, Scintillo, at Salisbury.
To ensure today's big pot is as difficult as possible to win the dash handicap at Catterick has been included. On the face of it, this looks an extremely difficult race but there is one in the line-up that stands out.
Scobie Coogan's fine sprinter MATSUNOSUKE (3.05) is in the form of his life and looked almost listed class when winning a hot Lingfield handicap last week
On that occasion, the selection came with a well-timed run under Seb Sanders to win by an easy looking length from Osiris Way.
He is equally if not more effective on turf and a penalty will not stop him going very close here.
Getting away from dreaming about becoming a millionaire, I do think that DISTINCTION (5.05) represents the day's solid bet in the Jockey Club Cup at headquarters.
This is a truly massive horse and I get the impression it has been a battle for Sir Michael Stoute to get him fit without breaking him down which explains his gradual improvement on the racecourse this season.
He only has to repeat his Ascot success to collect again and I think he could improve on that with the brilliant Ryan Moore in the saddle.
Anything above even money would be acceptable as far as I'm concerned and if Sunley Peace has won the Cesare witch by then I would possibly take a shade of odds on.
ELSWORTH: Bigchanceat HQ
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|Publication:||Daily Record (Glasgow, Scotland)|
|Date:||Oct 20, 2007|
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