Horse Racing: BANKERS OR BLOWOUTS? TRADING POST.
SP forecast 4-5
Form is rock-solid in the context of this race and chances are she only needs to repeat the form of her Goodwood second at the beginning of June to win this, though Jeremy Noseda's filly will have something to say about that
Ran a poor race at Chester on her penultimate start, when she didn't appear to be in love with the track and, although Thirsk isn't as sharp as Chester, it does have a similar tight left-handed configuration and she might not like this place, either
It's not as if she hasn't been in a position to lose her maiden status, but she keeps finding at least one too good and there is more than a passing suspicion that she is a touch one-paced
Verdict: The fact Geoff Wragg is making the trek up to Thirsk tells you he doesn't think Apple Blossom is up to winning a better maiden down south, and if she can't win what looks a two-horse race, her connections will be disappointed. I haven't got a strong view, but if the forecast prices are accurate, and I had to have a bet, I'd rather back Talk More at odds against than lay Apple Blossom.
SP forecast 6-4
Unbeaten in two starts and bred to be a bit better than a handicapper, so the assessor might be chasing his tail with this filly for a little while yet
Won on Polytrack at Wolverhampton on her debut in June and it was soft when she went in again at Lingfield ten days ago and it remains to be seen if the good to firm ground is going to suit, as her breeding hints at her being best suited by give in the ground
You could say her inexperience is an advantage, because she has been winning, albeit by narrow margins, and she is sure to be better for her recent spin at Lingfield, but definite signs of greenness that day and I get the impression she might be better suited by a larger field at this early stage of her career
The Sir Mark Prescott-trained Hazy Days won at Lingfield last time, despite not yet knowing her job, and the suspicion is she might be well in here off a mark of 78. However, some top yards represented and I wouldn't be in a rush to back her at the forecast 6-4, especially with the ground being something of an unknown. MW
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|Publication:||The Racing Post (London, England)|
|Date:||Aug 4, 2007|
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