Printer Friendly

HUNTINGTON NATIONAL BANK CHIEF ECONOMIST: LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX MEANS JOBS FOR OHIO

 COLUMBUS, Ohio, June 2 /PRNewswire/ -- James W. Coons, Vice President and Chief Economist for The Huntington National Bank in Columbus, Ohio, says that the 0.1 percent increase in the leading economic index (LEI) in April means the economic expansion will continue, growth will exceed last year's pace, and Ohio remains on course for an increase of more than 60,000 in total employment.
 Compiled by the Commerce Department in Washington, the LEI is a combination of eleven separate measures of economic activity, each with a tendency to move in advance of the overall economy. The April increase follows a 1.0 percent decrease in March and a 0.5 percent gain in February. The March decline called into question the longevity of the weak expansion a month ago, because it was the largest monthly drop since the recession.
 The rule of thumb for interpreting movements in the LEI is that three consecutive declines spells impending recession. This method has often produced false alarms and reveals nothing specific about the rate of economic growth.
 A more rigorous approach, applied at The Huntington, translates the recent pattern of the LEI into the probability of an upcoming recession and the rate of economic growth. The probability of imminent recession edged down slightly in April to 18 percent. Although well below the 95 percent threshold that warns of recession, at one-in-five, the chances of a downturn are the highest since February 1991 -- the final full month of the last recession.
 With respect to the pace of continued growth, the LEI is consistent with a 2.5-3.0 percent increase in real Gross Domestic Product in 1993. That compares with a 2.1 percent increase last year and would mark the best year for economic growth since at least 1988.
 A growth rate of 3 percent is believed to be the maximum sustainable pace of growth for the U.S. economy over the long run, and is the minimum growth rate necessary for a declining unemployment rate.
 "The Ohio economy will continue to enjoy the benefits of an expanding national economy," said Coons. "The recent pattern of the Leading Economic Index is consistent with an increase of 60,000 or more jobs in Ohio this year." The unemployment rate, currently at 6.5 percent, would be little changed by year end.
 -0- 6/2/93
 /CONTACT: Jim Coons of The Huntington National Bank, 614-463-4467/


CO: The Huntington National Bank ST: Ohio IN: FIN SU: ECO

BM -- CL006 -- 4351 06/02/93 09:46 EDT
COPYRIGHT 1993 PR Newswire Association LLC
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1993 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Article Details
Printer friendly Cite/link Email Feedback
Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Jun 2, 1993
Words:420
Previous Article:GRAPHIC INDUSTRIES FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS UP 98 PERCENT; SALES INCREASE FROM YEAR AGO
Next Article:FIRST UNION ANNOUNCES SECOND QUARTER DIVIDEND
Topics:


Related Articles
HUNTINGTON NATIONAL BANK ANNOUNCES UNEMPLOYMENT PAYMENT ASSISTANCE PLAN
HUNTINGTON BUSINESS FORUM SERIES "ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR 93"
HUNTINGTON CHIEF ECONOMIST: MAY PPI SPELLS END TO INFLATION SCARE
HUNTINGTON CHIEF ECONOMIST: ECONOMIC GROWTH POISED FOR A REBOUND
HUNTINGTON CHIEF ECONOMIST: ECONOMIC LULL TO PERSIST
HUNTINGTON BANKS INTRODUCE REVOLUTIONARY INSTANT ANSWER LOAN PROGRAM
MAURICE A. COX, JR. ELECTED TO THE HUNTINGTON NATIONAL BANK BOARD OF TRUSTEES
Recession Chances Remain Low for Next 12 Months -- Comerica
Huntington Revises 2003 Economic Outlook.
Huntington Economist Mokrzan to Serve on National Economic Advisory Committee.

Terms of use | Copyright © 2016 Farlex, Inc. | Feedback | For webmasters