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Gross product by industry: revised and updated estimates, 1947-85.

Gross Product by Industry: Revised and Updated Estimates, 1947-85

THE estimates of gross product by industry for 1947-84 have been revised as part of the revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPA's) released in December 1985. The sources of the revisions in GNP and its major components are described in the October and December 1985 issues of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. In this article, the effects of these revisions on industry product are reviewed and new estimates for 1985 are presented.

Annual estimates of gross product by industry are prepared for about 70 industries. For private activities, the industries are based on the 1972 Standard Industrial Classification. The estimates, in current and constant dollars, are shown in NIPA tables 6.1 and 6.2, respectively. Revised estimates back to 1982 were included in the March 1986 SURVEY, and comparable estimates for 1947-82 will be published in a separate volume.1

1. Estimates for all periods are available in machine-readable form. For further information, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230.

Table 1 presents the average annual rates of change of the previously published and revised estimates of constant-dollar (real) GNP and industry gross product for selected periods: 1948-59, 1959-72, 1972-84, and 1948-84. As indicated in previous articles on the revised estimates, the revisions in real GNP largely reflected the impact of shifting the base period from 1972 to 1982 for the calculation of constant-dollar estimates. Revisions in the estimates of industry gross product also were largely due to the shift in base period. In addition, they reflect improved deflation procedures introduced in the estimates for the gross product of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries; mining; and construction. The introduction of the improved procedures tended to lower the rates of change for these industries.

For the entire period 1948-84, the average annual rate of increase in real GNP was revised down 0.2 percentage point to 3.2 percent. The rates of increase were revised down in all industries except in services and in "rest-of-the-world,' which were revised up slightly, and in manufacturing and in finance, insurance, and real estate, which were unrevised. For 1948-59, the rate of increase in real GNP, at 3.6 percent, was unrevised. Mining, construction, and finance, insurance and real estate were revised up. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries; government and government enterprises; and transportation and public utilities were revised down. For 1959-72, the rate of increase in real GNP was revised down 0.2 percentage point to 3.7 percent. Gross product in most industries was revised down; the largest revisions were in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries and in construction. For 1972-84, the rate of increase in real GNP was revised down 0.2 percentage point to 2.5 percent. Again, most industries were revised down; the largest revisions were in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, in mining, in wholesale trade, and in finance, insurance, and real estate.

In 1985, real GNP increased 2.2 percent, following a 6.5 percent increase in 1984 (table 2). All domestic industries except mining contributed to the 1985 increase; mining declined 1.8 percent. Real product for the rest of the world declined substantially. Among the domestic industries, the largest percentage increases in 1985 were in wholesale trade and in services. In wholesale trade, the increase was partly due to continued increases in the volume of merchandise imports. In services, about one-half the increase was in business services.

All industry divisions contributed to the slowing of the increase in real GNP in 1985. The largest decelerations occurred in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries and in manufacturing.

Table: 1.--Constant-Dollar GNP by Industry: Average Annual Rate of Change Over Selected Periods

Table: 2.--Gross National Product by Industry in Current and Constant Dollars

Table: 3.--Gross National Product by Industry

Table: 4.--Gross National Product by Industry in Constant Dollars
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Author:Peterson, Milo O.
Publication:Survey of Current Business
Date:Apr 1, 1986
Words:654
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