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Gloom lifts, focus shifts to unemployment.

Pessimism may be finally abating among senior financial executives. More than 70% of the respondents to Treasury & Risk's Biannual Economic Survey, conducted from June 26 to July 10, say the worst of the financial crisis has passed, up from the 55% who were leaning that way in December. Confidence measures are inching back up from a record low six months ago. Respondents see inflation as more of a threat than deflation and almost three-quarters expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in the next 12 months. Six months ago, respondents worried most about the lack of available credit impeding economic growth (23%). Now, 26% see unemployment as the top threat to growth over the next year. More survey result s can be found online at www.treasurya ndrisk.com

23% expect the recession to be over by year's end, while 37% say the first half of 2010 and 39% see it ending in the second half of 2010 or beyond.
HOW CONFIDENT ARE YOU ABOUT THE
STATE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY?
(1 = very pesimistic, 10 = very confident)

Over the next six months:   4.19
12/08                       3.67
7/08                        4.29
12/07                       5.06

Over the next 12 months:    5.38
12/08                       4.46
7/08                        4.88
12/07                       5.52


52% see the credit crunch beginning to ease.
ANNUAL REVENUES

Under $500 million            7%
$500 million to $1 billion   28%
$1 billion to $5 billion     46%
Above $5 billion             19%

Note: Table made from pie chart.

BIGGEST THREATS TO ECONOMIC
GROWTH IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS:

Unemployment                        24%
Contraction in consumer spending    22%
Lack of availability of credit      18%
Lack of liquidity in the system     10%
Corporate and individual defaults    8%

Note: Table made from pie chart.

HAVE WE SEEN THE WORST OF
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS?

Yes   28%
No    72%

Note: Table made from pie chart.

EXPECTATIONS FOR FED FUNDS RATE 12 MONTHS FROM NOW:

UNCHANGED                      30%
UP 25 BASIS POINTS             27%
UP 50 BASIS POINTS             32%
UP MORE THAN 50 BASIS POINTS   11%

Note: Table made from bar chart.


57% expect their company's 2009 revenues to fall short of 2008 revenues.
EXPECTATIONS FOR AVERAGE PRICE OF BENCHMARK
LIGHT CRUDE OIL OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS:

Under $60     7%
$60 to $70   29%
$70 to $80   47%
$80 to $90   15%
Above $100    2%

Note: Table made from bar chart.


69% expect their company to be affected by the slowdown in global markets.

52% say the government's stimulus package is likely to help the economy in general, but only 33% say their company is likely to benefit from the stimulus.
HOW WILL THE DOLLAR PERFORM AGAINST
THE EURO OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Weaken          44%
Strengthen      30%
Stay the same   26%

HOW WILL THE DOLLAR PERFORM AGAINST
THE YEN OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Weaken          39%
Strengthen      30%
Stay the same   31%

Note: Table made from pie chart.

EXECUTIVES' OUTLOOK FOR THEIR OWN
COMPANY OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS:

WILL DECREASE CAPITAL SPENDING       31%
WILL INCREASE CAPITAL SPENDING       22%
WILL REDUCE WORKFORCE                35%
WILL ADD TO WORKFORCE                17%
EXPECT OPERATING MARGINS TO SHRINK   27%
EXPECT OPERATING MARGINS TO GROW     32%

Note: Table made from bar chart.

HAS THE FED RESPONDED ADEQUATELY
TO THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN?

TOO SLOW TO RESPOND   18%
TOO QUICK             25%
GOOD BALANCE          57%

Note: Table made from bar chart.


45% say the Obama administration is likely to deal better with the recession than the previous administration.
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Title Annotation:Treasury & Risk's 2009 Economic Survey
Publication:Treasury & Risk
Article Type:Survey
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Jul 1, 2009
Words:575
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