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GERMAN EXPORTS WILL GROW WITH ECONOMIC RECOVERY

 GERMAN EXPORTS WILL GROW WITH ECONOMIC RECOVERY
 FRANKFURT, Germany, June 25 /PRNewswire/ -- In the first four


months of 1992, German exports outstripped imports for the first time since German unification, writes Deutsche Bank Research in its latest "Focus: Germany" issue. During the period, exports grew 5.9 percent while imports grew 4.4 percent. Because the economies of Germany's major trading partners are expected to recover, this trend is likely to continue for the rest of the year.
 Based on the institute's forecasts, the 1992 German trade surplus will likely reach DM 25-30 billion, far surpassing the DM 21.2 billion figure of 1991. Nevertheless, according to DB Research, even a trade surplus that high will not prevent the German current account from closing with a substantial deficit in 1992.
 Economic growth in western Europe will contribute the most to sustaining the rise in Germany's exports, since the region as a whole makes up 72 percent of the country's export market; EC member states alone account for 50 percent of Germany's exports. The research institute estimates that the community's gross domestic product will increase by 1.3 percent, a slightly less optimistic figure than the 1.5 percent predicted by the EC Commission.
 According to DB Research, exports of German products to the United States, which grew 4.0 percent in the first quarter of the year, will continue to increase only moderately, in line with the predictions of a sluggish economic recovery. As for Japan, German exports to the country fell 8.5 percent in the second quarter 1992 compared to 1991, primarily due to Japan's economic slowdown.
 Imports into Germany increased 2.5 percent in value terms in the first four months of 1992 over the preceding four months. Imports of capital goods fell while consumer goods -- particularly automobiles -- increased, mostly to the benefit of the United States and Japan. German demand for raw materials was also beneficial to the republics of the former Soviet Union. Overall, imports are expected to rise 5.5 percent in 1992.
 For the complete text, contact Ute DeFarlo, vice president, communications, TransAtlantic Futures, Inc., Washington. Telephone: 202-462-1222; Fax: 202-462-1229.
 -0- 6/25/92
 /CONTACT: Thorsten Neufeld, 011-49-69-71007-231, or Hans-Jurgen Meltzer, 011-49-69-71007-227, of Deutsche Bank Research in Frankfurt/ CO: Deutsche Bank Research ST: IN: FIN SU:


TW -- DC003 -- 3661 06/25/92 09:55 EDT
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Date:Jun 25, 1992
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