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Future skill needs: projections & employers' views.

Introduction

The purpose of this study is to project future demand for the types of skills provided by the Australian Vocational Education and Training (VET) sector. The main question guiding our projections is: what will be the demand for vocational skills over the next five to ten years? In the course of projecting skill needs across certain industries and occupations, we assess how global and technological change has impacted on the structure of desired skills. In addition to quantitative analyses, this study involved consultation with employers, employer groups and a large national recruitment firm to determine what they see as the key future skills required, and what can and cannot be expected from the public vocational education system.

A contested issue in the literature on skills is whether skill levels in the labour market are generally rising or falling. Controversy over this issue was sparked over three decades ago with Braverman's 'technology as deskilling' thesis (Braverman, 1974). While some theorists ascribe to such pessimistic accounts of overall deskilling (see for example Thompson 1989 and Ritzer, 1998), other writers such as Castells (1999), Frenkel et al (1999) and De Laigne et al (2000) argue that the increased complexity of work is reducing the demand for lower skilled jobs and increasing the demand for jobs with higher skill competencies. While the early upskilling and deskilling theses were empirically informed, they lacked the advantage of representative aggregate data (Gallie, 1991). AUK study by Penn et al, (1994) attempted to rectify this deficit. Their study indicated that rather than a mass move to either up-skilling or deskilling, a pattern of skill polarisation existed in the UK, a pattern which benefited already skilled workers (Penn et al, 1994). It was argued that jobs at the bottom end of the labour market were not being deskilled, but this was only because they already called for so little skill (Rose et al (1994). Other theorists such as Shah and Burke (2003) posit that current and future skill levels are the result of the interaction between exposure to globalisation and new technologies, while Buchanan et al (2004:188) deconstruct this further by suggesting that there are different skill ecosystems resulting from the 'interlocking networks of firms, markets and institutions, conceived as a form of interdependence'.

Against this background of competing views of the required future levels of skills and the different impacts of trade and technology on skills, it is generally acknowledged that definitions of skill have changed in recent times, and indeed continue to change as work and the employment relationship is restructured over time (see for example Spenner, 1990; Gallie et al, 1998; Warhurst and Nickson, 2001; Buchanan et al, 2001; Grugulis, Warhust and Keep, 2004; Bolton, 2004, Marchington et al, 2005). It is argued here that in order to understand the types of skills that will be needed in the future, we need a firmer understanding of the concept of 'skill' itself, and this unpacking of the concept of skill forms the starting point for this paper.

This report is organised into 5 remaining sections. The next section explores the concept of 'skill', how conceptions of skill have changed over time, the impact of global and technological change on the structure of skills and importantly, the problematic nature of projecting skill demand. It is suggested here that traditional measures such as 'qualification' and 'earnings' have inherent weaknesses as proxies for skill, and an argument is made for a more 'task-centred' typology of skill. In Section 3 we present an 'Industry Approach' to projecting skill demand based on employment growth in what are predicted to be the most rapidly growing industries. Section 4 makes use of an alternative 'Occupation Approach' whereby we project skill demand in relevant VET-intensive occupations based on the projected increase in employment in each of the occupations. Section 5 reports on consultations with employers and a large recruitment firm. Their views on what they see as the key future skills required, and what can and cannot be expected from the public vocational education system are reported. Comparisons and contrasts with the projections from Section 3 and 4 are then discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn in Section 6 by drawing together the material from the previous sections.

2. Unpacking the Concept of Skill

2.1 Skills: A Changing Target

In this section the changing concept of skill is explored, since how 'skill' is conceptualised and defined has implications for the projections of skills required, and for the resultant nature of vocational training design and provision.

The notion of 'skill' is an elusive and difficult concept to define. The broad body of literature on skills reveals different types of approaches to defining 'skill' (see for example Becker 1964, Littler 1982, Spenner 1990, Noon and Blyton, 2002). One approach is adopted predominantly by economists, and involves the view that 'skill' is something that resides in the worker. The assumption is that enhancing workers' human capital through increasing their skill levels positively impacts on the productivity of firms. The second approach, sociological in orientation, involves the skill that is required of the job. This includes contextual job aspects beyond the task at hand, factors such as examination of job design and forms of control, as well as the nature of the employment relationship. The third approach (also sociological in its orientation) views skill as a social construction. This approach sees that the notion of 'skill' arises from negotiations between economic actors, collectively or as individuals. This social construction of skill takes place within and outside the workplace, and could be to the benefit of certain groups (including groups based on profession, craft, or gender).

While these approaches to skill are of academic interest, at first glance they are not immediately useful in the realm of policy-making. As Grugulis et al (2004:1-2) note, the pragmatics that drive policy-makers privilege definitions of skill that can be more readily achieved or measured. Activity within the vocational education and training (VET) system that cannot easily be judged by its ability to generate numerical outcomes (qualifications or parts thereof) is generally considered as highly problematic.

Since skill is not easy to quantify, substitutes are used, most notably 'qualifications' and 'earnings'. Qualifications however, are not skills, but a proxy for skill (Attewell, 1990; Steiger, 1993). As a convenient form of short hand included in almost every definition of skill, they can assist employers identify appropriate workers, provide individuals with portable credentials, and give occupational groups bargaining power. Yet, each of these advantages arise from the skills that qualifications are assumed to certify, no t from the fact that qualifications exist. This is not to denigrate the value of accreditation, for there is little doubt that qualifications enable workers and employers to locate one another, thus assisting the labour market to function efficiently. The point is that it is problematic to assume a more skilled workforce on the basis of greater participation in education and the accumulation of qualifications, since the possession of skills, or more accurately their proxies, rather than their use in the workplace starts to take precedence. In simple terms, proxies are not always reasonable signifiers for the skills they are intended to represent. Level of education or certification does not necessarily capture the actual skill requirements of jobs, and rapid growth in educational attainment may have as much to do with credentialism as skill attainment.

Alongside the problematic nature of defining and measuring skill has been the emergent tendency to rate what has traditionally been regarded as character traits, personal characteristics, predispositions and attitudes to be as important as skills. Examples include motivation, empathising, inquisitiveness, a sense of humour, enthusiasm, personal presentation, punctuality, positive self-esteem, and perseverance (Field, 2001 ). These types of attributes are also sometimes referred to as generic skills, employability skills and unobservable skills. The rationale underlying the importance of such attributes is that they underpin more traditionally defined skills such as communication, learning, project management and systems skills (this last skill including working with and understanding organisational, technological, information and product/service systems).

The landscape of generic skills is a contested terrain, even at a simple, pragmatic level. For example, from conducting a number of case studies, Grugulis and Vincent (2005) identify that different 'soft' skills (equating to the personality traits and attitudes mentioned above) are required in different organizations. Grugulis and Vincent found that in some organizations, loyalty and commitment were more highly prized over customer orientation and service, while in other organizations customer service skills were paramount above all else. From this perspective then, 'generic' skills are far more firm specific than is assumed. Moreover, the question has been raised as to how the gamut of desired new generic skills is distinguishable from the more simple old 'skill' of discipline. For example Lafer (2004) describes how in the US, a growing number of companies have turned to prison labour as a labour pool. One of the central objectives aims of the corrections system program is to enable inmates to develop desirable work habits such as teamwork and learning how to follow directions. Lafer cites a prison-based IBM supplier who declared that the productivity and quality of the prison-based workforce was as good, if not better, than any other workforce he'd dealt with. For Lafer (2004:117), this raises the following issue:
   'If private employers find the motivation and work ethic they need
   in prison, it suggests that the interactive skills, teamwork and
   emotional intelligence they seek are not a matter of skill, but
   rather of will. Anyone, it seems, can be a good team member, if
   they are only desperate enough for the job or institutionally
   deprived of the means to resist.


Lafer (2004) goes on to argue that the extent to which soft, generic skills are a matter of will rather than skill is further evident in the power of good wages to produce effects that training programmes 'seem incapable of providing' (p. 117). He refers to a study conducted by Moss and Tilly (1996), where two distribution warehouses in the same neighbourhood in Los Angeles employed large numbers of current and past gang members. In the first warehouse, managers complained about the laziness of the workers and their propensity for theft, and the struggle to retain the workers with turnover exceeding twenty five per cent. The second warehouse drew on the same labour force, but paid the entry-level workers several dollars an hour more than their competitor. At this warehouse, managers had few complaints about their workers, and the turnover rate was just two per cent. Lafer (2004) uses results such as these to suggest that 'soft' or 'generic' skills are not 'skills' that either one possesses or lacks; they are 'measures of commitment that one chooses to give or withhold based on the conditions of work offered' (p. 118).

Beyond what is necessary to make projections on the types of skills required over the next five years, the debate on what constitutes 'generic', 'employability' or 'unobservable' skills will not be entered into here, since a vast body of discussion on issues related to this matter has already been addressed elsewhere overseas and in Australia (see for example Gibb, 2004; Kearns, 2001; Dawe, 2002; Allen Consulting Group, 2004; Callan, 2003; Virgona et al, 2003a; Virgona et a12003b; Lafer, 2004). Moreover, we believe it is important to distinguish between the talents, capacities and abilities that that people bring to jobs from the skills that jobs require (Spenner, 1990).

Mournier (2001) adopts a novel and interesting approach to the question of what constitutes skill. He argues that any 'skill' is a heterogenous quality of labour, comprised of three dimensions or what he calls 'logics'. Mournier defines a 'logic' as a social force acting in a given direction, it is a result of interaction between social actors, institutions and social value and norms. Mournier (2001: 34) thus argues that the three logics of skill include the following:

* Technical skills, related to the exercise of labour power, and determined by equipment and production methods;

* Behavioural skills, related to the subordination aspects and interpersonal factors in employment relationships;

* Cognitive skills, related to the level and kind of general education and training undertaken by a population to help it understand and act in the world

Mournier (2001: 34) goes on to suggest that:
   In searching for a homogenous and substantive definition of skills,
   most attempts have only looked for one single logic, which has led
   them to neglect the social process of defining skills and to assume
   that skills could be compared through time and space.... (yet) a
   given combination of the three logics in defining skills is time
   and space specific, because those logics are embedded in labour
   relationships and broader social structures.


Mournier's (2001) conception is interesting since it identifies essential components of 'skill' yet allows for different emphases of each component (or 'logic'). His work is not directly used here, however, the framework used in this report adopts the same philosophy of the heterogeneity of skill, and follows a similar structural conception of skill. We will return to conceptual problems regarding the definition and measurement of skill. Before doing so however, some discussion on how and why skill sets (however defined or measured) is required.

2.2 The Impact of Global and Technological Change on Skills

In many countries, there has been a reported increased demand for skilled workers and a pronounced shedding of low skill workers over the last two decades (see for example Colecchia and Papconstantinou, 1996; Autor, Levy and Murnane (2003). As Figure 1 shows, Australia is no exception.

Figure 1 shows that since 1996, that has been just over a thirty per cent increase in the demand for high skilled labour, while the demand for middle and low skilled labour (1) has remained undergone some shifts but now is more or less at the same level since 1996.

The two main causes to explain the shift in demand towards high skilled workers are first, the global change associated with rising levels of international trade, and second, skill biased technological change. The trade hypothesis predicts that increased trade opportunities with developing countries induce a shift away from labour intensive manufacturing industries in industrialised countries, which lowers the relative demand for unskilled labour. The trade hypothesis thus focuses on structural shifts between industries. By contrast, the emphasis of the skill biased technology change hypothesis is on changes taking place within industries. It posits that if technological change is biased toward high skilled workers, their productivity will increase relative to that of other workers. Employers will respond to this by altering their skill mix in favour of high skilled workers. Under this hypothesis, no between-industry reallocation of labour need occur for the economy-wide share of high skilled workers to increase.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

A caveat is in order here. The distinction between trade and technological change effects is analytically convenient, but may not be wholly accurate since the two explanations could plausibly be causally linked. Increased pressure from international competition could cause some producers to adopt more technology intensive production methods within the same industry or in other sector of the economy. On the other hand, technology can stimulate trade (De Laine et al., 2000).

A useful typology using the combined effects of globalisation and technological change has been developed by Shah and Burke (2003). Their analysis is based on classifying occupations according to whether they are advantaged by globalisation

and technological change or relatively insulated or vulnerable. Globally advantaged occupations include professionals and associate professionals in business related occupations, who have the capacity to interact directly or through corporations with the global knowledge economy. The insulated occupations include many of the 'in-person service' professional occupations but also some skilled and low skill occupations for which overseas workers or products cannot be readily substituted. The vulnerable occupations include those whose services, or the products they make, are most subject to substitution from abroad or by new technology and include many manufacturing workers and some groups of white collar workers (Shah and Burke, 2003:iii). Table 1 below shows a summary of Shah and Burkes's 92003) typology.

Shah and Burke's (2003) research indicates that four out of every five jobs that are generated because of growth in employment are projected to be in the globally advantaged occupations or in the insulated occupations.

While global trade factors are assumed to be of relevance, empirical evidence lends more credence to the impact of technology as determining changes in skill, rather than factors related to global change. Replicating a US study by Wolff (1995), Pappas (1998) has shown that the contribution of trade to changes in skills in Australia between 1976 and 1991 were very small. Studies that have explored the impact of technology on skills, however, reveal a high degree of complementarity between skill and technology (Wolff, 1995, Pappas, 1998, Kelly and Lewis 2003, Kelly and Lewis, 2004). The main argument is that recent technological change, especially the intensification of information and communications technologies (ICT) in the economy, has complemented skilled and highly skilled labour in production. Table 2 shows business use of selected IT items for all businesses between 1994 and 2004. Overall the growth of businesses with ICT usage is dramatic with a 39 percent increase in computer use since 1994, and an annual growth rate of 5.8 percent per annum since 1998. Internet access increased from 29 percent in 1998 to 74 percent in 2004, with the largest increase between 1998 and 2000 (27 percent) at a growth rate of 46.5 per annum.

Information and communication technologies can change the composition of skills in a number of different ways. The direct substitution of easily automated labour intensive jobs by computer based technologies will change the composition of skills. Change in skills may also eventuate from the organisational complementarity that exists between computer-based technologies and managerial and professional jobs. ICT allow organisational structures to vary from traditional hierarchical forms; they enable lateral communication and coordination and a degree of increased autonomy, a changed mode of supervision which requires different skills. People skills (or interactive skills) are crucial to this process (Kelly and Lewis, 2004). Having looked at the impact of global and technological change on the structure of skill demand, attention will now turn to projections of future skill needs.

2.3 Conceptual Framework for this Report

The Problematic Nature of Projecting Future Demand for Skills

To date, published Australian studies of changes in the demand for skills are retrospective studies based on historical data (see for example the work of Pappas 1998, Cully 1999, Wooden 2000, Kelly and Lewis 2003, Kelly and Lewis, 2004). This means that data exists on the key factors, such as industry growth rates and the occupational structures of industries that have contributed to changes in skill demand. This means that analysis can be performed on the relative contribution of such factors on changes in skill demand. The focus of this study however, is to project the future demand for skill and is thus prospective rather than retrospective.

The main factors that may contribute to changes in skill demand can be identified as a) changes in the skill composition of occupations; b) changes in the occupational composition of industries, and c) differences in the growth rates of industries. In turn, the factors underlying these changes are a complex set of interactions between market forces (eg globalization), technological change, changes in productivity, and changes in the nature of the employment relationship.

While these factors and interactions can be identified, as with any exercise in projection, predicting and forecasting the demand for skills involves making the best use of historical data.

We are generally of the view that forecasts of the nature, extent and outcomes of technological, economic and social developments need to be treated with some caution. As Fine (1999:3) neatly articulates:
   The social sciences, at the best of times, are hard put accounting
   for and explaining the present. Despite the demand for knowledge of
   the future, respectable academic social scientists have taken a
   generally conservative approach to the issue of long-term
   forecasting, qualifying their conclusions as projections rather
   than predictions or forecasts or have focused on broad, generally
   abstract generalisations.


We believe it is simply not possible to predict or forecast the multitude of different skills that will be required in the future, and as discussed above the use of proxies for skill such as qualifications, earnings, or nominal occupation as a means of supplying useful projections has inherent limitations. In this study we have adopted a non-traditional approach to the projection of future skill needs. Underlying our approach is the view that the concept of 'skill' is most usefully understood as being 'task-based'. We thus adopt a taxonomic view that skills are composed of qualitatively different classifiable tasks and dimensions, and believe this potentially allows for the formulation of 'skill profiles' for a given occupation and perhaps even industries (depending on the homogeneity of occupational composition).

The first part of our analysis is industry-based. We apply our taxonomy of skill dimensions to occupational clusters against the background of projections of occupational demand due to changes in industry growth rates. This involves the assumption that the skill composition of occupations and the occupational composition of industries remain constant over the period of our projections. We acknowledge these are contestable assumptions; nevertheless we are of the view that projected industry growth provides some clues as to which occupations and associated skill dimensions may be in future demand.

To provide an alternative approach for comparison, we also investigate the demand for skill dimensions based directly on the projected growth rates of a range of VET-related occupations (196 ASCO 4-digit occupations under 20 ASCO 2-digit categories). The growth of a particular occupation will depend on the growth in the share of that occupation within the industries in which it present and the growth rates of those industries. Thus, changes in the demand for skill dimensions estimated our taxonomy of skill dimensions will reflect both industry growth rates and changes in the occupational composition of industries (while still assuming that the skill composition of occupations remains constant).

The extent to which the Industry and Occupation Approach projections of future demand for skills differ from each other is an indication of the extent to which changes in the demand for skills are driven by changes in the occupational composition of industries rather than industry growth alone. An important caveat here is that since single occupations do exist in multiple industries, the differences between the growth of skills between the two approaches may not necessarily reflect the changes in the demand for skills demand due to changing occupational composition in industries.

Our projections of future skill requirements in this report are based on the use of a number of different sources. For the industry-based approach we have used DEWR (2005) data to determine which industries are likely to experience the most employment growth over the next five years, and within these industries, their occupational composition. We then determined the skill profile of each occupation in each of the growth industries by allocating scores for the three skill dimensions, as detailed below. For the occupation-based approach we again used DEWR (2006) data. The numbers of persons employed in each 4 digit ASCO (VET intensive) occupations for 2005 were projected to 2011 using five year annualised augmented growth rates. In this case the number of occupations was greater than in the industry-based approach, and additional skill dimension scores were allocated.

The level of uncertainty of our projections is dependent on the accuracy of the DEWR projections of industry and occupation growth, the extent to which the skill-composition of occupation change over time, and more critically on the accuracy of our calculated skill dimension scores for each occupation. Subjectivity in the assigning of skill scores was minimised by using ASCO task definitions for each occupation (at the 3 or 4 digit level), and an experienced and trained job analyst conducted the assigning of skill scores. It is noted however, that in most cases the ASCO task descriptors are brief and this may impact on the accuracy of the scores.

2.3 The Skill Dimension Typology

The framework adopted here focuses on the skill attributes required by jobs as distinct from personality attributes required from the individual, as defined in the US Department of Labour's (USDOL) Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) (2). At the finest level of occupational detail the following descriptions of tasks and their associated score are given. In DOT jobs are classified as requiring workers to function to some degree in relation to data (cognitive skills), people (interactive skills), and things (motor skills). As can be seen from Table 3 below, the dimensions are similar to the three 'logics' of skill highlighted by Mournier (2003), but differ in the sense that they are potentially measurable. Table 3 below outlines the tasks and scale for each skill dimension in descending order of complexity.

Tasks involving more complex judgement and responsibility are given lower numbers for each category, and the less complicated have higher numbers. For example, for people who handle data, 'analysing' is considered a more complex task than 'computing'. The same applies to tasks in the 'things' category. 'Precision working' involves greater complexity than 'tending'. A complete list of definitions of the workers' functions against the scale provided in Table 1 can be found at http://www.oalj.dol.gov/public/dot/refmc/dotappb.htm (USDOL, 2000).

By way of example, the distinction between analysing and compiling in the 'Data' column in Table 1 according to the DOT scheme, is as follows:

* Synthesising (level 1 skills) is the integrating analyses of data to discover facts and/or develop knowledge concepts or interpretations, whereas

* Compiling (level 3 skills) involves the gathering, collating, or classifying

information about data, people, or things. Reporting and/or carrying out a prescribed action in relation to the information is frequently involved.

(USDOL, 2000).

Similarly, the distinction between negotiating and persuading in the 'People' column in Table 1 according the DOT scheme, is as follows:

* Negotiating (level 1 skills) is the exchanging of ideas, information, and opinions with others to formulate policies and programs and/or arrive jointly at decisions, conclusions, or solutions, whereas,

* Persuading ((level 5 skills) is the influencing of others in favour of a product, service, or point of view.

(USDOL, 2000).

It should be noted that the scales relate to an ordering of the complexity of tasks typically undertaken in an occupation, but does not indicate the intensity of use of those skills.

Spenner (1990:402) lends some support to this organising scheme, while at the same time highlighting an area not pursued in this study:

'The thrust of empirical research suggests at least two dimensions of job skills: substantive complexity and autonomy control. Substantive complexity refers to the level, scope, and integration of mental, manipulative, and interpersonal tasks in a job. The subdimensions of mental, interpersonal and manipulative refer to the classic functional foci of "data, people, and things" as dimensions of interface between a person and a task. The level scope and integration of these substantive dimensions capture important empirical variations in the chemistry of the dimensions as they are found in jobs. '(italics added)

By using the DOT worker functions framework in this study, we have focused on the substantive complexity of jobs but have not included any analysis of autonomy control. Autonomy control refers to the discretion available in a job to control the manner (content and speed) in which tasks are executed. The extent to which autonomy control can be considered a dimension of skill is arguable. It depends on a range of complex mitigating factors associated with the nature of the employment relationship and the structure of power relations within contemporary capitalism. For the purpose of this study and in keeping with Form (1987), we are of the view that autonomy control is not a dimension of skill, rather it is a function of the broader contextual and hierarchical dimension of jobs.

Returning to the DOT, we note that it is not without its critics. Spenner (1990) outlines the following points of caution when using the DOT as a source of occupational data:

1. The DOT is not a probability sample of jobs in the (U.S) economy, and in general, manufacturing jobs are oversampled compared to professional, clerical and service jobs;

2. Use of the DOT variables at the level of occupations involves a degree of aggregation over person-instances of the job, for example, across companies, jobs within an occupation and so on. There is thus some measurement error in the DOT variables to the extent that they fail to capture these contexts and are relevant to the problem under study;

3. Estimates of (interrater) reliability for the DOT worker function variables of "data" (cognitive skills) and "people" (interactive skills) are generally acceptable (.63 to .70), however the ratings for levels of involvement with "things" (motor skills) are below acceptable social science standards.

4. Questions have been raised as to the validity of the DOT constructs, particularly in relation to gender bias. While some studies argue that aspects of the DOT are lacking in validity (see for example Miller, Treiman, Cain and Roos, 1980), other studies lend confidence to the use of the DOT variables (Karasek 1979, Spenner 1980).

We do not see Point 1 above as posing a serious problem for the purposes of this study. While service sector occupation have gown, the occupation group of 'professionals' form only a small proportion of VET-related occupations. The measurement error described in Point 2 above is difficult to escape, and we would argue that some degree of measurement error will always be in place for a concept as layered and complex as skill. Point 3 above is likely to be related to uneven technological change, and poor reliability for this variable can be understood against the background of uneven technological advancement, implementation and distribution. Point 4 above does not relate to work functions as presented here and is not problematic for purposes of this study. Hence, despite the caveats associated with the DOT, we believe the focus on the 'worker functions' component of the DOT has distinct advantages for our study of future skill demand and the implications for VET. The DOT provides a comprehensive, direct measure expert system, one that is broad in scope, yet parsimonious.

The division of skills into the dimensions of cognitive, interactive and motor skills forms the framework for the remainder of the paper. In the next section, projections of future skill requirements are made, using the skill dimension typology as a means of constructing a future skills profile.

3. Industry Approach to Projecting Future Skill Needs

This section develops our Industry Approach to projecting skill demand based on the skill dimensions approach discussed above. The projections are based on forecasts of industry employment growth produced by the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR, 2005). Before exploring our projections, it is useful to look at relevant research which may place our study in context.

3.1 Historical View

Pappas (1998) mapped skills trends over time from 1975 to 1995. His findings are revealed in Figure 2 and are included here since they potentially provide a useful context for the findings in this study. From Figure 2 we can see an accelerated growth in the use of cognitive and interactive skills since the mid 1980's, and a marked decline in the use motor skills.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

The changed grading structure of occupations since 1996 in the second edition of the Australian Standard Classification of Occupation poses a significant obstacle to extending the work of Pappas (1998) both to the current time and for the purpose of projections. Nevertheless, the trend profile revealed in Figure 2 gives us some idea of changes in skill dimensions and their likely trajectory.

3.2 Projections of Employment Growth

The industry Approach to projecting the demand for skills focuses on the DEWR publication Australian Jobs 2005, that is, top ten occupations (by numbers employed) in the top ten industries (by projected employment growth),

Figure 3 below shows DEWR's projected share of relative employment growth for all industries to 2009-10.

Figure 3 portrays the share of industry growth. Both share and absolute analyses are important for the concept of industry growth rate. According to the DEWR forecasts (DEWR, 2005), five industries are expected to provide more than eighty per cent of Australia's new jobs over the next five years (see Figure 4). Property and business services and health and community services are expected to experience the largest jobs growth. These industries are expected to increase their employment by 2.7 per cent and 2.8 per cent per annum respectively. This means that on average, more than thirty thousand new jobs will be created in each of these industries every year for the next five years. Large numbers of new jobs are also expected to be created in Retail Trade with 1.9 per cent growth per annum or almost thirty thousand jobs per year till 2009-10, followed by Construction with nearly fourteen thousand new jobs per year, and Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants with nearly 12 thousand new jobs over the next five years. The occupations in these employment growth industries bear a strong resemblance to the globally advantaged and insulated occupations identified by Shah and Burke's (2003).

Property and Business Services for example is expected to create around 166,000 new jobs over the next five years. This is a diverse industry providing real estate, business and legal services, scientific research and machinery and equipment leasing. Consequently, it employs a range of skill levels and types, but most of the occupations do fall into the globally advantaged or insulated categories in Shah and Burke's (2003) typology. Likewise, Health and Community Services, currently the fourth largest employer of Australians is expecting strong employment growth. It is a high skilled industry and again occupations within it fall into the globally advantaged and insulated categories. Similarly, employment growth in Retail, Construction, and Accommodation Cafes and Restaurants support the occupational employment growth projections made by Shah and Burke (2003).

Having identified the industries in which the main employment growth is expected to occur, attention will now turn to an examination of the future skills required in occupations within those five high growth industries.

3.2 Methodology: Projecting Skills, the Industry Approach

Choosing Industries and Occupations

The Industry Approach uses projected industry-level growth rates in employment in the five industries that DEWR projects to have the highest employment growth from February 2005 to 2010. These industries are:

1. Property and business services

2. Health and community services

3. Retail trade

4. Construction

5. Accommodation, cafes and restaurants.

In addition, industries 1, 2, 3 and 5 were each further disaggregated into two sub-groupings of occupations in order to achieve relatively homogenous skill dimension scores within each group See Appendix 2). DEWR provides numbers of persons employed for each industry. For the purposes of this study some occupations, mainly managerial in character, were removed because these are not VET-trained occupations.

The list of included occupations is provided in Table 4. Occupations are classified by industry. Each occupation name is followed by its ASCO 1-digit classification and occupations are allocated into an industry grouping (with either a "1" or "2" suffix if necessary) on the basis of this value. Assigning Skill Dimension Scores

The next step in the method was to apply skill dimension scores to each occupation. Again a full listing is provided in Appendix 2 and a representative sample is provided in Table 5. The measures of skill used in this study were constructed using data and information from Australian occupational task descriptions contained in the Australian Standard Classification of Occupations (2nd edition) (ASCO), industry employment share matrices and the scale of skill complexity developed by the USDOL for the three skill dimensions (cognitive, interactive, and motor skills) outlined in Section 2 of this report. The methodology broadly resembles that used by Pappas (1998) and Kelly and Lewis, 2004). In order to derive the occupational skill scores, the measures presented in Table 1 (refer to Section 2) were inverted, that is, the least complex tasks were given the lowest score. Following this, all scores were converted to a common scale of 0 to [10.sup.3]. To derive the scores used for occupations, the ASCO task descriptions for the top ten occupations in each growth industry were examined and a score assigned for each skill dimension. The basis for assigning a score to an occupation was to determine and assess the most complex task undertaken in that occupation for each skill dimension. The skill scores derived in this way are provided in Appendix 1.

In order to check the validity of the skill scores allocated in this study, a sample of occupations were selected and were checked against the scores contained in the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) (refer to Appendix 4)

Calculating Industry and Aggregate Weighted Average Skill Dimension Scores

With the skill dimension scores for each occupation assigned the next step is to calculate weighted averages of skill dimensions for each industry. These are calculated from the skill dimension scores for each occupation and weighting these by the numbers of employed persons in each occupational category for 2005. The aggregate skill dimension scores are the weighted average of the industry weighted averages. Again, these are given in Appendix 2.

Projecting the Skill Dimensions

To calculate the skill dimension scores for 2011 the numbers of employed persons in each occupation were projected using a straight line trend, with the annual growth rate being the projected rate from DEWR of employment growth for each industry. This means that the weighted average of skill dimension scores for 2010 are equal to those for 2010 because the growth rates applied to each occupation are the same (that is, the industry-level project employment growth rate). On the basis of the projected numbers of employed persons in each occupational category the aggregate skill dimension scores for 2010 are calculated using the method described above except using the 2010 number of persons employment as the weights.

Projected percentage changes in the demand for cognitive, interactive and motor skills are also given in Table 6. The percentage changes indicate that the demand for interactive skills is likely to increase, the demand for cognitive skills to remain relatively constant and the demand for motor skills is likely to fall.

In Figure 5, the skill dimension scores for each industry grouping are illustrated. It is clear from this figure that there are differences in the skill dimension profiles of the industry and sub-industry groupings. For example, "Construction" has a relatively low level of interactive skills compared to other groupings (with the exception of "Retail Trade 2", which consists of trades workers within retail). The figure also illustrates the variation within industry groupings of the total skill levels. Where industries have been divided into "1" and "2" sub-groupings the differences in skill profiles are clear.

[FIGURE 5 OMITTED]

The fastest employment growth industry is Property and Business Services. Our grouping, "Property and Business Services 2" is made up of "Accountants" and "Real Estate Agents". These occupations have high interactive skill scores and are driving the growth of the interactive component of the aggregate skill score for this industry.

Similarly, occupations in "Health and Community Services 2" have a high cognitive skill component. This, together with the high growth of this industry is driving the projected increase in demand for cognitive skill in the aggregates for all industries.

3.3 Projection of Future Skills--Findings

Figure 6 below shows the percentage change in projected skills from 2005 to 2011. Overall, growth in interactive and cognitive skills is projected to dominate the change in demand for motor skills in the next six years, Figure 6 shows a profile not dissimilar to that provided by Pappas for the later years of his time series.

[FIGURE 6 OMITTED]

Structural factors are likely to underpin the profile evident in Figure 6, particularly the fall in demand for motor skills. Service sector work dominates the economy and working in the service sector demands very different skills to those required in manufacturing. But such structural explanations veil the subtle dynamics underlying such shifts. It is likely that the dynamics underlying the profile in Figure 6 are the same as those identified by Pappas (1998) and by Kelly and Lewis (2004). Pappas found that changes in cognitive and interactive skill were strongly positively correlated with various indicators of technological change, suggesting that these skills complement new technology. He also found that change in motor skills is positively correlated with a general indicator of technological change, but negatively correlated with computerisation, suggesting that while motor skills complement some technology, information technology reduces the demand for such skill. It is worth noting that Pappas (1998) drew these conclusions before the dramatic uptake of ICT revealed in Table 2: Business use of Selected Technologies in Australia. 1994-2004, percent (a), hence his findings take on a new and added significance. A recent study sheds more light on the importance of technology in reshaping skill requirements. Testing the relationship between IT related technological changes and changes in mean skill levels of industry, Kelly and Lewis (2004) found that the sophistication and nature of IT has enabled it to replace skills that were once considered relatively skilled.

Moreover, their findings suggest that it is only some of the more creative and interpersonal characteristics required in the workplace that will be immune to automation. For many tasks, there will be a trade-off between the level of interaction that consumers desire and the efficiency with which tasks can be undertaken. Kelly and Lewis (2004:147) use the example of bank tellers to explain why the roles of some occupations are being transformed. Bank tellers have been removed from the role as information processor and have been transformed into sales oriented and customer assistance roles where the value added is higher.

4. Occupation Approach to Projecting Future Skill Needs

In this section we project how the composition of the demand for skills in the workforce will change to 2011 using the 'Occupation Approach'. Skill scores of occupations were determined using the same technique as described earlier in this paper.

Data Sources and Method

Data referring to the growth rates and absolute numbers of persons within each occupation at the ASCO 4-digit and 2-digit level were provided by DEWR (2006). DEWR prepares projections of employment growth for occupations, currently to the year 2010-11. Rather than use all the occupations outlined by the classification, a decision was made to excise certain occupations so that further analysis would be performed only on those that are considered VET-intensive. These twenty occupational classifications at the 2-digit level were selected to correspond with Tan and Richardson (2006).

For each 4-digit occupation (within the twenty 2-digit classifications), a score was allocated for each of the three skill dimensions (cognitive, interactive and motor). These scores were then weighted according to the absolute number of persons within that 4-digit occupation as a proportion of those within the relevant 2-digit occupation. This produced a weighted score at the 2-digit occupation level for the three (CIM) skills (refer to Appendix X for details of this method and the complete results).

Once the weighted average for all 2-digit occupations had been calculated, a weighted average of these was constructed to derive a total score for the CIM skills in the given year. This was done with exactly the same method as the first weighted average, except using 2-digit ASCO rather than 4-digit.

Given that the number of people working within any 4-digit or 2-digit occupation is used as the weighting for CIM scores, determining the changing composition of the skill mix requires projections of the changes in worker numbers for each occupation. The DEWR data included projections based on an extension of historic trends in both annualised and non-annualised form. However, further projections were obtained from DEWR that were much more comprehensive and, rather than simply extend past trends, incorporated a host of relevant factors in determining a five year annualised growth rate by occupation. These projections are based on occupational projections provided by the Centre of Policy Studies (COPS) at Monash University (from the MONASH model), COPS data and augmented with the input of actual employment growth in recent years; industry employment growth and prospects; vacancy trends; industry surveys; and qualitative information on occupational developments from employers, recruitment agencies, employer organisations, education and training bodies and labour market intermediaries.

The decision was made to use these augmented projections, which represent the most informed of DEWR's. The difficulty of using these augmented projections are that they negate the possibility that the change in the (CIM) skill mix would differ from year to year -rather they assume that the composition changes uniformly over the five year time period.

After overcoming these conceptual problems, the calculation of the changing skill dimension mix was relatively straightforward. The growth rates derived as above were applied to the numbers of workers in each 4-digit occupation at the last recorded date (May 2006). This produced the weights for the five-year projections, from which new weighted averages were automatically generated. These were then recorded to produce a table of projected CIM scores.

Figure 7 portrays the expected movements in the CIM skill mix if the growth rates for each occupation are accurately mapped by DEWR's augmented five-year annualised projections.

Figure 7 shows the projected percentage change in skill mix for 2011. The percentage expected change in interactive skills is projected to be the greatest followed by cognitive skills with a decline projected for motor skills.

[FIGURE 7 OMITTED]

5. Comparison of Findings from the Industry and Occupation Approach

For the aggregate (weighted average) skill dimension scores, both the Industry Approach and the Occupation Approach yield similar results, that is, the demand for interactive and cognitive skills will grow and the demand for motor skills is likely to decline. It is important to emphasise that the changes in skill demand analysed in this paper are those due to projected industry and occupational growth rates and an underlying assumption is that the skill composition of occupations does not change.

[FIGURE 8 OMITTED]

Clearly, the Occupation Approach projects that demand for interactive skills grows significantly faster than cognitive skills, whereas the Industry Approach projected that demand for interactive and cognitive skills would grow at about the same rate. As discussed earlier (Section 2) the extent to which the Industry and Occupation Approach projections of future demand for skills differ from each other is an indication of the extent to which changes in the demand for skills are driven by changes in the occupational composition of industries rather than industry growth alone. An important caveat here is that since single occupations do exist in multiple industries, the differences between the growth of skills between the two approaches may not necessarily reflect the changes in the demand for skills demand due to changing occupational composition in industries. Keeping in mind this caveat, our projections suggest that the occupational structure of industries is changing in favour of occupations that are interactive-skill intensive.

6. Future Skill Needs: Employer's Views

Employers representative of three of the five growth industries, as well as a senior executive in a major national recruitment firm, were interviewed for the purpose of this study. Questions were asked related to projected employment growth and occupation growth trends, reasons behind any stated trends, and future skill requirements. Each interviewee was briefed as to what constituted interactive, cognitive and motor skills in the context of this study, and was asked to comment on the perceived relative importance of each skill dimension for their industry over the next decade.

In each case, our projections for employment growth (based on DEWR, 2005) were seen to be as accurate as most other estimates available to the employers interviewed. Importantly, all interviewees indicated that interactive skills were the most valued and desired skills for the future. Cognitive skills were also seen as highly important, and in keeping with the projected skill profile for 2010, motor skills were perceived as necessary in certain occupations but overall of declining importance relative to the interactive and cognitive skill dimensions.

A point of interest was that all interviewees indicated some level of frustration that interactive skills were not formally recognised as being of equal worth as cognitive or motor skills. The resistance to acknowledging the validity of interactive skills was neatly put by an interviewee (4) representing the hospitality industry (part of the Accommodation, cafes and restaurants grouping), who commented that "we are really keen to get waiters acknowledged as having skills akin to a trade, but they're just not seen to be the same level as a trade level occupation". Employers representing hospitality and retail industries were particularly adamant about the fundamental importance of interactive skill in their industries. The hospitality representative argued strongly that while waiters (for example) may appear to be simply fetching and serving food or drinks, the reality of quality customer service means that skills of persuasion (rated somewhat higher than 'serving' on the list of interactive tasks, refer to Appendix 1), however subtle, are involved. The employer went on to argue that while some aspects of customer service and orientation may have as their outcome ongoing customer loyalty or brand loyalty, the ultimate bottom-line aim of customer interaction was effective persuasion resulting in a financial gain for the company or employer. This capability of persuasive activity he argued, involved a higher level of skill than was given credence.

This same employer representative went on to argue that there was an intrinsic bias against the hospitality and service sector skill set for some occupations, and that this was due to trades being traditionally and historically seen as blue collar, masculine, 'dirty' work. It appears that the traditional social construction of 'skill' as activity that is viewable and tangible, may preclude skills that are more covert and intangible such as that found in the service sector. This point will be taken up again in the final section of this report.

Other main issues emerging from the interviews related to the impact of both technological and social change. Each of these is dealt with in turn.

6.1 Technological Change and Skills: Employer's Views

The underlying dynamic of substitution by technology for replicable skills emerged as a familiar theme. For example, it was suggested that the increasing uptake of Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) and associated time-management software may lead to reduced or at least static numbers of secretaries and personal assistants. Additionally, the view was expressed that direct dialling facilities are replacing the traditional receptionist role, especially where intense productivity and efficiency gains are being sought.

In other cases however, technology was not substituting replicable skills, rather it was observed to bring about an enlarged skill set. One employer commented on the case of the electrical trades and applied technologies associated with the 'smart house' concept. With the advent of 'smart houses' (the timed operation of appliances and security systems or remote operation of such systems in the household), electricians are increasingly being required to learn a variety of applied technologies, rather than engage in traditional "wire jerker" trade skills. Interestingly, one employer commented that it was the social changes underlying the introduction of smart house technologies that have led to the changed skill set. For example a general 'climate of fear' leading to personal security concerns, as well as a raised awareness of scarce resources such as power and water were considered by one employer to have led to the design and uptake of smart house technologies and the change in focus for a growing number of electricians in construction to learn advanced applied technologies. According to one of the employers interviewed, the applied technologies require greater cognitive skills, and the direct interface in the use of applied technologies (such as smart house technologies) with the customer means that interactive skills assume more importance. Whereas motor skills would have traditionally been a dominant part of the electrical trades skill set, the skill set is now constantly changing, with the comment made that "the ability to gain a skill set, and then shed that as and when is necessary so as to learn a new skill set is a crucial part of being in the electrical trades" (5) Underpinning this shifting and broadening of the skill set was the general move to wireless technologies

The effect of technology and its impact on skills is being felt also in retail industries. New technology introduced to enhance supply chain responsiveness is leading some supermarket employers to re-think the skills required in their distribution centres and on the supermarket floor. Consumer preference for high quality fresh food produce has led to a 'farm to fridge' (6) concept. The implications for skill in the supermarket industry in the retail sector are two-fold. First, there will be an increased need to up-skill employees in distribution centres in the relevant supply chain technology. This 'migration' of skills (from old to new) is currently taking place, and clearly shifts the skill set for this group of employees away from motor skills into a more cognitive and interactive domain. Second, the 'farm to fridge' concept means that the product is offloaded at the point of consumer purchase, meaning that staff once employed to shift stock from the back of stores or from a storeroom are now expected to seize opportunities to have more of a customer focus and heightened interaction with customers. Where traditionally there were two types of workers in supermarkets, 'stockers' on the one hand and customer focused employees on the other, it is now increasingly expected that all employees engage in customer interaction. The shift toward interactive skills is again apparent.

6.2 Social Change and Skills: Employer's Views

It was mentioned above that social change associated with security concerns and scarce resources indirectly impacted on skills via the introduction of relevant technology. The recruitment firm representative we interviewed (7) highlighted how social change can lead to increased demand for some occupations, and more to the point, can lead to a changed skill set within occupations. He predicted a heightened demand for legal professionals as Australia increasingly adopts US litigation models, and also suggested that the current industrial relations reforms will lead to increased demand for legal consultation (al least in the mid-term). The point was also made that social and legislative change resulting from the Enron, Arthur Anderson, and Worldcom scandals is impacting the types of skills required. For example, there is considerable demand for accountants and financial controllers to bring their auditing skills in line to comply with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, 2002 (8). The Act essentially means that accountants and financial controllers adopt regular stringent reporting procedures (in the form of monthly declarations). This requires not just sophisticated cognitive skills, but involves a significantly enhanced focus on interactive skills, since it is the provision of clear and detailed communication that underpins the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.

6.3 Employer Perceptions of Public VET

Employers were also asked general questions related to VET, mainly surrounding the usefulness of the VET system as it currently stands, and how it may respond to the future skill needs in each of the five different growth industries. All employers acknowledged the difficulty for the VET system in trying to cater to the diverse needs of different industry groups and resultant different skill sets. Nevertheless, the employers generally indicated a level of dissatisfaction with the VET system as it currently stands. A unanimous criticism essentially revolved around the inability of VET to be flexible and responsive to the needs of industry, especially as those needs change over time. Moreover, there was a perception that in some cases, there was an actual mismatch between the training provided by VET and the skills that were required on the job. In other cases, employers commented that while some of the training provided was useful, other training components within a package were not. They suggested an enhanced role for employers whereby they provide some input into VET curriculum design. This closer partnership role was considered to be more likely to lead to accurate skills identification and delivery of appropriate training. One of the employers interviewed for this study suggested that more electives or 'modules' would be a more effective means to match industry-training requirements with VET offerings. 7.

Conclusion

The main aim of this report was to determine the types of skills that will be needed to 2011. We explored how global and technological change has impacted on the structure of desired skills, and then projected skill demand across certain employment growth industries and occupations. In addition to quantitative analyses, this study involved consultation with employer groups and a large national recruitment firm to determine what they see as the key future skills required, and what can and cannot be expected from the public vocational education system.

It was noted that definitions of skill have changed in recent times and are likely to continue to change as work and the employment relationship continues to be restructured. This report differs from most other investigation into changing skill requirements. The majority of studies into changing skill requirements have been retrospective, whereas this study is prospective. Additionally, rather than focus on proxies of skill such as 'qualification' or 'occupation', a task-oriented approach was adopted. This involved applying a framework derived from the US Department of Labour's (USDOL) Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) to various occupations within five identified employment growth industries. This framework involved analysing occupations using the classification of skills according to the dimensions of cognitive, interactive and motor skills.

Previous research conducted in Australia in the 1990's showed that interactive skills and cognitive skills had taken precedence over motor skills (Pappas, 1998), a finding that resembled the results of studies conducted in the United States (Wollff, 1995). The aggregate emphasis on interactive and cognitive skills was also found to hold true in this study. It was found that across the five main employment growth industries and well as an analysis of occupational grwoth, interactive and cognitive skills will be in high demand in the years to 2011.

There are significant variations in the relative importance of particular skill components for occupations in the high growth industries in this study and in the aggregate (weighted average) of skill dimension scores between industries. For the aggregate weighted average skill dimension scores, both the Industry Approach and the Occupation Approach yielded similar results, that is, the demand for interactive and cognitive skills will increase whereas the demand for motor skills is projected to decline. It is important to emphasise that the changes in skill demand analysed in this paper are those due to projected industry and occupational growth rates and an underlying assumption is that the skill composition of occupations does not change.

Given that our analysis indicates interactive and cognitive skills will increasingly be in demand, it is likely that the interactive and cognitive skill components of many, if not the majority, of occupations will grow due to this "market pull" effect.

The increased demand for cognitive and interactive skills is likely to be associated with the interaction of global change and accompanying rising level of international trade as well as skill-biased technological change. For example, the increased demand for cognitive skills may reflect the rising complexity in jobs driven by increased technological complexity and higher levels of consumer choice. Increased demand for interactive skills is likely to reflect an increasingly networked economy and a heightened focus on the knowledge supply chain. The future success of workers in occupations that have traditionally been characterised by a low interactive skill requirement will increasingly depend on their proficiency with functions within the interactive skill set.

This result based on our quantitative analysis was mirrored in the qualitative input from industry interviews. For example, one interviewee expressed frustration that interactive skills were not formally recognised as having equal worth with cognitive and motor skills. Employers in the hospitality sector, for example, saw a clear link between the quality of their employees' interactive skills and the success of their businesses.

An example that clearly illustrates this skills shift in the trades is the changing role of electricians. Traditionally, an electrician was relatively narrowly focused on straight forward technical and motor tasks. Increasingly, they are required to inform, educate and negotiate with customers and suppliers, and deal with the rising complexity of domestic and industrial electrical and electronic technologies, including programmatically logic controllers (PLCs), home security systems and home computer networks. This requires a different skill set, one more closely aligned with interactive worker functions.

Going back to the notion of a projected aggregate skills profile, employer interviews taken together with our quantitative findings indicate that interactive and cognitive skills will be the skill dimensions in highest demand over the coming decade. This is not to downplay the requirement for motor skills for which there are still obvious requirements. But it is clear that the changing nature of the workplace in terms of technological and social changes has led to an increased emphasis on interactive and cognitive skills.

The implications for VET are that curriculum design needs to incorporate consideration of the worker functions contained within the interactive and cognitive skill sets. For example, training in the hospitality sectors needs to emphasise the specific interactive skills required in particular jobs. This goes beyond simple customer focus training characterised by scripted interaction to a more in-depth treatment of higher level interactive skills such as persuasion and negotiation.

This notion of "ascending the skill hierarchy" is an important aspect of skill deepening.

This type of 'targeted curriculum' approach would need to incorporate an appropriate examination of each level of qualification, since each of the skill dimensions are likely to hold varying significance at different levels of study.

Employers interviewed in this study also commented that VET needed to be more flexible and responsive to the needs of industry. Employers commented that more consultation with industry would improve VET offerings and ensure that VET kept pace with the changing needs of industry. The results of the quantitative analysis in this study show that these types of industry statements are more than simple catch phrases--industry needs are changing. Employers interviewed expressed a desire for active partnership with VET in the design of curriculum and delivery of training, and that restructuring existing qualifications into an elective or modular structure may improve the flexibility of offerings

Shah, C. and Burke, G. (2003), Project 2000-02: Changing Skill Requirements in the Australian Labour Force in a Knowledge Economy: Future Job Openings, Working Paper No. 48, Centre for the Economics of Education and Training, Monash University.

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Spenner, K. (1990), 'Skill: Meanings, Methods and Measures', Work and Occupations, vol. 17, pp. 399-421

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United States Department of Labor (USDOL) (2000), Dictionary of Occupational Titles (4th edn)--Appendix B, http:llwww.oalj.dol.gov/public/dot/refrnc/dotappb. htm, (accessed on 4 October, 2005).

Virgona, C., Waterhouse, P., Sefton, R. and Sanguinetti, J. (2003a), Making Experience Work: Generic Skills Through the Eyes of Displaced Workers, vol 1, National Centre for Vocational Research, Adelaide.

Virgona, C., Waterhouse, P., Sefton, R. and Sanguinetti, J. (2003b), Making Experience Work: Generic Skills Through the Eyes of Displaced Workers, vol 2, National Centre for Vocational Research, Adelaide.

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Appendix 1
Inverted and Scaled Skill Dimension Scores

Skill Dimensions

Data (Cognitive Skills)

                               Original   Scaled   Inverted Score

Synthesising                   0          0.00     10.00
Coordinating                   1          1.43     8.57
Analyzing                      2          2.86     7.14
Compiling                      3          4.29     5.71
Computing                      4          5.71     4.29
Copying                        5          7.14     2.86
Comparing                      6          8.57     1.43

People (Interactive Skills)

                               Original   Scaled   Inverted Score

Mentoring                      0          0.00     10.00
Negotiating                    1          1.11     8.89
Instructing                    2          2.22     7.78
Supervising                    3          3.33     6.67
Diverting                      4          4.44     5.56
Persuading                     5          5.56     4.44
Speaking-Signalling            6          6.67     3.33
Serving                        7          7.78     2.22
Taking Instructions/Helping    8          8.89     1.11

Things (Motor Skills)

                               Original   Scaled   Inverted Score

Setting up                     0          0.00     10.00
Precision working              1          1.25     8.75
Operating-Controlling          2          2.50     7.50
Driving-Operating              3          3.75     6.25
Manilulating                   4          5.00     5.00
Tending                        5          6.25     3.75
Feeding-Off bearing            6          7.50     2.50
Handling                       7          8.75     1.25

Appendix 2

Skill dimension scores and persons employed, actual and projected, for
occupation used in the Industry Approach

PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES 1                Cognitive   Interactive

Designers and Illustrators (3)                  5.71        5.56
Bookkeepers (5)                                 5.71        3.33
Secretaries and Personal Assistants (5)         5.71        5.56
Receptionists (6)                               2.86        3.33
Security Officers and Guards (6)                1.43        5.56

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                4.57        4.82

PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES 2                Cognitive   Interactive

Accountants (3)                                 7.14        7.78
Real Estate Agents (3)                          5.71        8.89

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                6.47        8.30

HEALTH AND COMMUNITY SERVICES 1                 Cognitive   Interactive

Nurses Aides and Personal Care Assistants (6)   2.86        2.22
Carers, Hostel and Refuge Workers (6)           2.86        2.22
Child Care Workers (6)                          2.86        5.56
Receptionists (6)                               2.86        3.33

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                2.86        3.32

HEALTH AND COMMUNITY SERVICES 2                 Cognitive   Interactive

Welfare and Community Workers (3)               6.20        5.13
Enrolled Nurses (3)                             5.71        4.44

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                5.93        4.74

RETAIL TRADE 1                                  Cognitive   Interactive

Sales Assistants (6)                            1.43        4.44
Checkout Operators and Cashiers (6)             1.43        2.22
Storepersons                                    1.43        1.11
Kitchenhands                                    2.86        2.22
Retail and Checkout Supervisors (6)             2.86        6.67
Fast Food Cooks (4)                             1.43        2.22

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                1.53        3.74

RETAIL TRADE 2                                  Cognitive   Interactive

Motor Mechanics (4)                             4.29        2.22
Motor Vehicle and Parts Salespersons (6)        2.86        2.22

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                3.99        2.22

CONSTRUCTION 1                                  Cognitive   Interactive

Carpenters and Joiners (4)                      4.29        3.33
Electricians (4)                                7.14        3.33
Plumbers (4)                                    4.29        2.22
Painters and Decorators (4)                     4.29        2.22
Builders' and Plumbers' Assistants              1.43        1.11
Construction Plant Operators                    1.43        1.11
Concreters (4)                                  1.43        1.11
Bricklayers (4)                                 1.43        1.11

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                3.74        2.26

ACCOMMODATION, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 1          Cognitive   Interactive

Waiters (6)                                     2.86        4.44
Bar Attendants (6)                              1.43        2.22
Kitchenhands (6)                                1.43        1.11
Cooks (4)                                       2.86        3.33
Sales Assistants (6)                            2.86        4.44
Receptionists (6)                               2.86        3.33

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                2.30        3.22

ACCOMMODATION, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 2          Cognitive   Interactive

Chefs (3)                                       7.14        7.78
Restaurant and Catering Managers (3)            5.71        6.67
Hotel and Motel Managers (3)                    5.71        6.67

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                6.26        7.10

ALL INDUSTRIES ABOVE                            Cognitive   Interactive

WEIGHTED AVERAGE 2005                           3.13        3.88

WEIGHTED AVERAGE 2011                           3.12        3.91

PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES 1                Motor

Designers and Illustrators (3)                  5.00        27,000
Bookkeepers (5)                                 1.25        28,800
Secretaries and Personal Assistants (5)         1.25        55,100
Receptionists (6)                               3.75        24,700
Security Officers and Guards (6)                3.75        26,600

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                2.66        162,200

PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES 2                Motor

Accountants (3)                                 5           71,600
Real Estate Agents (3)                          1.25        63,900

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                3.23        135,500

HEALTH AND COMMUNITY SERVICES 1                 Motor

Nurses Aides and Personal Care Assistants (6)   1.25        66,100
Carers, Hostel and Refuge Workers (6)           1.25        64,700
Child Care Workers (6)                          1.25        63,800
Receptionists (6)                               3.75        59,800

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                1.84        254,400

HEALTH AND COMMUNITY SERVICES 2                 Motor

Welfare and Community Workers (3)               4.54        20,000
Enrolled Nurses (3)                             3.75        25,500

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                4.10        45,500

RETAIL TRADE 1                                  Motor

Sales Assistants (6)                            1.25        488,900
Checkout Operators and Cashiers (6)             1.25        104,800
Storepersons                                    1.25        66,900
Kitchenhands                                    1.25        30,300
Retail and Checkout Supervisors (6)             1.25        22,200
Fast Food Cooks (4)                             1.25        18,400

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                1.22        731,500

RETAIL TRADE 2                                  Motor

Motor Mechanics (4)                             8.75        68,200
Motor Vehicle and Parts Salespersons (6)        3.75        18,400

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                7.69        86,600

CONSTRUCTION 1                                  Motor

Carpenters and Joiners (4)                      8.75        81,700
Electricians (4)                                8.75        58,200
Plumbers (4)                                    8.75        52,000
Painters and Decorators (4)                     8.75        40,200
Builders' and Plumbers' Assistants              5.00        34,200
Construction Plant Operators                    6.25        33,400
Concreters (4)                                  8.75        32,300
Bricklayers (4)                                 8.75        26,600

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                8.16        358,600

ACCOMMODATION, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 1          Motor

Waiters (6)                                     1.25        94,600
Bar Attendants (6)                              3.75        55,300
Kitchenhands (6)                                1.25        40,000
Cooks (4)                                       5.00        19,200
Sales Assistants (6)                            1.25        17,600
Receptionists (6)                               3.75        15,800

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                2.28        242,500

ACCOMMODATION, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 2          Motor

Chefs (3)                                       8.75        40,400
Restaurant and Catering Managers (3)            1.25        41,400
Hotel and Motel Managers (3)                    1.25        23,400

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                4.13        105,200

ALL INDUSTRIES ABOVE                            Motor

WEIGHTED AVERAGE 2005                           3.30        1,763,400

WEIGHTED AVERAGE 2011                           3.21

PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES 1

Designers and Illustrators (3)                  31,374
Bookkeepers (5)                                 33,466
Secretaries and Personal Assistants (5)         64,026
Receptionists (6)                               28,701
Security Officers and Guards (6)                30,909

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                188,476

PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES 2

Accountants (3)                                 83,199
Real Estate Agents (3)                          74,252

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                157,451

HEALTH AND COMMUNITY SERVICES 1

Nurses Aides and Personal Care Assistants (6)   77,205
Carers, Hostel and Refuge Workers (6)           75,570
Child Care Workers (6)                          74,518
Receptionists (6)                               69,846

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                297,139

HEALTH AND COMMUNITY SERVICES 2

Welfare and Community Workers (3)               23,360
Enrolled Nurses (3)                             29,784

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                53,144

RETAIL TRADE 1

Sales Assistants (6)                            544,635
Checkout Operators and Cashiers (6)             116,747
Storepersons                                    74,527
Kitchenhands                                    33,754
Retail and Checkout Supervisors (6)             24,731
Fast Food Cooks (4)                             20,498

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                814,891

RETAIL TRADE 2

Motor Mechanics (4)                             75,975
Motor Vehicle and Parts Salespersons (6)        20,498

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                96,472

CONSTRUCTION 1

Carpenters and Joiners (4)                      89,543
Electricians (4)                                63,787
Plumbers (4)                                    56,992
Painters and Decorators (4)                     44,059
Builders' and Plumbers' Assistants              37,483
Construction Plant Operators                    36,606
Concreters (4)                                  35,401
Bricklayers (4)                                 29,154

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                393,026

ACCOMMODATION, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 1

Waiters (6)                                     107,087
Bar Attendants (6)                              62,600
Kitchenhands (6)                                45,280
Cooks (4)                                       21,734
Sales Assistants (6)                            19,923
Receptionists (6)                               17,886

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                274,510

ACCOMMODATION, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 2

Chefs (3)                                       45,733
Restaurant and Catering Managers (3)            46,865
Hotel and Motel Managers (3)                    26,489

WEIGHTED AVERAGE                                119,086

ALL INDUSTRIES ABOVE

WEIGHTED AVERAGE 2005                           2,394,196

WEIGHTED AVERAGE 2011

Appendix 3

ASCO
Code   Title                               Cognitive   Interactive

       All Occupations              2006        5.50          5.05
                                    2011        5.55          5.15

11     Generalist Managers                 Cognitive   Interactive

1111   Legislators and Government
       Appointed Officials                     10.00          8.89
1112   General Managers                         8.57         10.00
1191   Building and Construction
       Managers                                 8.57          6.67
1192   Importers, Exporters and
       Wholesalers                              8.57          8.89
1193   Manufacturers                           10.00          8.89

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        8.82          8.84
                                    2011        8.84          8.91

12     Specialist Managers                 Cognitive   Interactive

1211   Finance Managers                         8.57          8.89
1212   Company Secretaries                      8.57          8.89
1213   Human Resource Managers                  8.57          8.89
1221   Engineering Managers                     8.57          8.89
1222   Production Managers                      8.57          8.89
1223   Supply and Distribution
       Managers                                 8.57          8.89
1224   Information Technology
       Managers                                 8.57          8.89
1231   Sales and Marketing
       Managers                                 8.57          8.89
1291   Policy and Planning
       Managers                                 8.57          8.89
1292   Health Services Managers                 8.57          8.89
1293   Education Managers                       8.57          8.89
1294   Commissioned Officers
       (Management)                             8.57          8.89
1295   Child Care Coordinators                  8.57          8.89
1296   Media Producers and
       Artistic Directors                       8.57          8.89
1299   Other Specialist Managers                8.57          8.89

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        8.57          8.89
                                    2011        8.57          8.89

13     Farmers and Farm Managers           Cognitive   Interactive

1311   Mixed Crop and Livestock
       Farmers                                  7.14          6.67
1312   Livestock Farmers                        7.14          6.67
1313   Crop Farmers                             7.14          6.67
1314   Aquaculture Farmers                      7.14          6.67

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        7.14          6.67
                                    2011        7.14          6.67

32     Business and
       Administration Associate
       professional                        Cognitive   Interactive

3211   Branch Accountants and
       Managers (Financial
       Institution)                             7.14          7.78
3212   Financial Dealers and
       Brokers                                  8.57          7.78
3213   Financial Investment
       Advisers                                 8.57          7.78
3291   Office Managers                          5.71          6.67
3292   Project and Program
       Administrators                           8.75          6.67
3293   Real Estate Associate
       Professionals                            5.71          8.89
3294   Computing Support
       Technicians                              7.14          3.33

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        7.06          6.95
                                    2011        7.07          6.93

33     Managing Supervisors
       (Sales and Service)                 Cognitive   Interactive

3311   Shop Managers                            4.29          7.78
3321   Restaurant and Catering
       Managers                                 5.71          6.67
3322   Chefs                                    7.14          7.78
3323   Hotel and Motel Managers                 5.71          6.67
3324   Club Managers (Licensed
       Premises)                                5.71          6.67
3325   Caravan Park and Camping
       Ground Managers                          5.71          6.67
3329   Other Hospitality and
       Accommodation Managers                   5.71          6.67
3391   Sport and Recreation
       Managers                                 5.71          6.67
3392   Customer Service Managers                5.71          6.67
3393   Transport Company Managers               5.71          6.67
3399   Other Managing Supervisors
       (Sales and Service)                      5.71          6.67

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        5.29          7.27
                                    2011        5.35          7.25

34     Health and Welfare
       Associate Professionals             Cognitive   Interactive

3411   Enrolled Nurses                          5.71          4.44
3421   Welfare Associate
       Professionals                            5.71          4.44
3491   Ambulance Officers and
       Paramedics                               8.57          7.78
3492   Dental Associate
       Professionals                            7.14          7.78
3493   Aboriginal and Torres
       Strait Islander Health
       Workers                                  8.57          8.89
3494   Massage Therapists                       5.71          4.44

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        6.20          5.13
                                    2011        6.20          5.12

39     Other Associate
       Professionals                       Cognitive   Interactive

3911   Police Officers                          7.14          8.89
3991   Primary Products
       Inspectors                               7.14          7.78
3992   Safety inspectors                        7.14          7.78
3993   Sportspersons, Coaches and
       Related Support Workers                   714         10.00
3994   Senior Non-Commissioned
       Defence Force Officers                   5.71          6.67
3995   Senior Fire Fighters                     7.14          6.67
3996   Retail Buyers                            7.14          4.44
3997   Library Technicians                      8.57          7.78
3999   Other Miscellaneous
       Associate Professionals                  5.71          6.67

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        7.16          8.57
                                    2011        7.22          8.66

41     Mechanical and Fabrication
       Engineering Tradespersons           Cognitive   Interactive

4111   General Mechanical
       Engineering Tradespersons                7.14          6.67
4112   Metal Fitters and
       Machinists                               7.14          3.33
4113   Toolmakers                               7.14          3.33
4114   Aircraft Maintenance
       Engineers                                7.14          6.67
4115   Precision Metal
       Tradespersons                            3.33          7.50
4121   General Fabrication
       Engineering Tradespersons                7.14          3.33
4122   Structural Steel and
       Welding Tradespersons                    7.14          3.33
4123   Forging Tradespersons                    4.29          3.33
4124   Sheetmetal Tradespersons                 4.29          3.33
4125   Metal Casting
       Tradespersons                            4.29          3.33
4126   Metal Finishing
       Tradespersons                            4.29          3.33

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        6.89          3.73
                                    2011        6.90          3.75

42     Automotive Tradespersons            Cognitive   Interactive

4211   Motor Mechanics                          7.14          2.22
4212   Automotive Electricians                  7.14          2.22
4213   Panel Beaters                            4.29          2.22
4214   Vehicle Painters                         2.86          2.22
4215   Vehicle Body Makers                      4.29          2.22
4216   Vehicle Trimmers                         4.29          2.22

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        6.30          2.22
                                    2011        6.29          2.22

43     Electrical and Electronics
       Tradespersons                       Cognitive   Interactive

4311   Electricians                             7.14          3.33
4312   Refrigeration and
       Airconditioning Mechanics                4.29          2.22
4313   Electrical Distribution
       Tradespersons                            3.33          2.22

31     Science, Engineering and
       Related Associate
       Professionals                       Cognitive   Interactive

3111   Medical Technical Officers               7.14          8.89
3112   Science Technical Officers               7.14          8.89
3121   Building, Architectural
       and Surveying Associate
       Professionals                            7.14          6.67
3122   Civil Engineering
       Associate Professionals                  7.14          6.67
3123   Electrical Engineering
       Associate Professionals                  7.14          6.67
3124   Electronic Engineering
       Associate Professionals                  7.14          6.67
3125   Mechanical Engineering
       Associate Professionals                  7.14          6.67
3129   Other Building and
       Engineering Associate
       Professionals                            7.14          6.67

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        7.14          7.32
                                    2011        7.14          7.33

4314   Electronic Instrument
       Tradespersons                            7.14          2.22
4315   Electronic and Office
       Equipment Tradespersons                  4.29          2.22
4316   Communications
       Tradespersons                            3.33          2.22

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        5.74          2.83
                                    2011        5.80          2.85

44     Construction Tradespersons          Cognitive   Interactive

4411   Carpentry and Joinery
       Tradespersons                            4.29          3.33
4412   Fibrous Plasterers                       4.29          2.22
4413   Roof Slaters and Tilers                  4.29          2.22
4414   Bricklayers                              1.43          1.11
4415   Solid Plasterers                         4.29          2.22
4416   Wall and Floor Tilers and
       Stonemasons                              4.29          2.22
4421   Painters and Decorators                  4.29          2.22
4422   Signwriters                              2.86          2.22
4423   Floor Finishers                          1.43          2.22
4431   Plumbers                                 4.29          2.22

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        3.94          2.51
                                    2011        3.93          2.52

45     Food Tradespersons                  Cognitive   Interactive

4511   Meat Tradespersons                       2.86          1.11
4512   Bakers and Pastrycooks                   4.29          3.33
4513   Cooks                                    2.86          3.33
4519   Other Food Tradespersons                 2.86          3.33

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        3.25          2.71
                                    2011        3.29          2.75

46     Skilled Agricultural and
       Horticultural Workers               Cognitive   Interactive

4611   Farm Overseers                           7.14          7.78
4612   Shearers                                 1.43          1.11
4613   Wool, Hide and Skin
       Classers                                 7.14          3.33
4614   Animal Trainers                          7.14          4.44
4621   Nurserypersons                           4.29          3.33
4622   Greenkeepers                             4.29          2.22
4623   Gardeners                                4.29          2.22

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        4.33          2.43
                                    2011        4.34          2.42

49     Other Tradespersons and
       Related Workers                     Cognitive   Interactive

4911   Graphic Pre-Press
       Tradespersons                            4.29          1.11
4912   Printing Machinists and
       Small Offset Printers                    4.29          1.11
4913   Binders and Finishers                    4.29          1.11
4914   Screen Printers                          4.29          1.11
4921   Wood Machinists and
       Turners                                  7.14          2.22
4922   Cabinetmakers                            7.14          3.33
4929   Other Wood Tradespersons                 4.29          2.22
4931   Hairdressers                             4.29          4.44
4941   Clothing Tradespersons                   2.86          2.22
4942   Upholsterers and Bedding
       Tradespersons                            4.29          2.22
4943   Footwear Tradespersons                   4.29          2.22
4944   Leather Goods, Canvas
       Goods and Sail Makers                    4.29          3.33
4981   Marine Construction
       Tradespersons                            7.14          3.33
4982   Glass Tradespersons                      4.29          3.33
4983   Jewellers and Related
       Tradespersons                            7.14          3.33
4984   Florists                                 5.71          4.44
4985   Fire Fighters                            7.14          7.78
4986   Drillers                                 4.29          1.11
4987   Chemical, Petroleum and
       Gas Plant Operators                      4.29          3.33
4988   Power Generation Plant
       Operators                                4.29          3.33
4991   Defence Force Members Not
       Elsewhere Included                       4.29          3.33
4992   Performing Arts Support
       Workers                                  4.29          3.33
4999   Other Miscellaneous
       Tradespersons and Related
       Workers                                  4.29          2.22

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        5.00          3.39
                                    2011        5.06          3.51

51     Secretaries and Personal
       Assistants                          Cognitive   Interactive

5111   Secretaries and Personal
       Assistants                               5.71          5.56

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        5.71          5.56
                                    2011        5.71          5.56

59     Other Advanced Clerical
       and Service Workers                 Cognitive   Interactive

5911   Bookkeepers                              4.29          2.22
5912   Credit and Loans Officers                5.71          4.44
5991   Advanced Legal and
       Related Clerks                           7.14          7.78
5992   Court and Hansard
       Reporters                                5.71          3.33
5993   Insurance Agents                         4.29          2.22
5994   Insurance Risk Surveyors,
       Investigators and Loss
       Adjusters                                7.14          7.78
5995   Desktop Publishing
       Operators                                5.71          2.22
5996   Travel Attendants                        5.71          4.44
5999   Other Miscellaneous
       Advanced Clerical and
       Service Workers                          5.71          4.44

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        4.96          3.39
                                    2011        4.94          3.35

61     Intermediate Clerical
       Workers                             Cognitive   Interactive

6111   General Clerks                           2.86          3.33
6121   Keyboard Operators                       2.86          2.22
6131   Receptionists                            2.86          3.33
6141   Accounting Clerks                        5.71          2.22
6142   Payroll Clerks                           7.14          3.33
6143   Bank Workers                             5.71          4.44
6144   Insurance Clerks                         5.71          3.33
6145   Money Market and
       Statistical Clerks                       5.71          2.22
6151   Production Recording
       Clerks                                   5.71          2.22
6152   Transport and Despatching
       Clerks                                   5.71          2.22
6153   Stock and Purchasing
       Clerks                                   5.71          2.22
6191   Inquiry and Admissions
       Clerks                                   4.29          2.22
6192   Library Assistants                       5.71          3.33
6193   Personnel Clerks                         5.71          3.33
6194   Intermediate Inspectors
       and Examiners                            5.71          3.33
6199   Other Intermediate
       Clerical Workers                         4.29          2.22

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        4.32          2.82
                                    2011        4.28          2.85

62     Intermediate Sales and
       Related Workers                     Cognitive   Interactive

6211   Sales Representatives                    2.86          4.44
6212   Motor Vehicle and Related
       Products Salespersons                    2.86          4.44
6213   Retail and Checkout
       Supervisors                              2.86          6.67

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        2.86          4.79
                                    2011        2.86          4.82

63     Intermediate Service
       Workers                             Cognitive   Interactive

6311   Education Aides                          2.86          3.33
6312   Children's Care Workers                  2.86          6.67
6313   Special Care Workers                     2.86          6.67
6314   Personal Care and Nursing
       Assistants                               2.86          2.22
6321   Hotel Service Supervisors                2.86          6.67
6322   Bar Attendants                           1.43          2.22
6323   Waiters                                  2.86          4.44
6324   Hospitality Trainees                     2.86          2.22
6391   Dental Assistants                        5.71          3.33
6392   Veterinary Nurses                        5.71          3.33
6393   Prison Officers                          2.86          4.44
6394   Gaming Workers                           2.86          2.22
6395   Personal Care Consultants                4.29          4.44
6396   Fitness Instructors and
       Related Workers                          5.71          7.78
6397   Travel and Tourism Agents                4.29          4.44
6399   Other Intermediate Service
       Workers                                  4.29          4.44

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006        3.17          4.61
                                    2011        3.12          4.60

                                                    Numbers    Numbers
ASCO                                               Employed   Employed
Code   Title                               Motor       2006       2011

       All Occupations              2006    4.91     5399.3
                                    2011    4.88                5672.9

11     Generalist Managers                 Motor

1111   Legislators and Government
       Appointed Officials                  3.75        6.4       13.6
1112   General Managers                     3.75       94.4      109.0
1191   Building and Construction
       Managers                             8.75       52.0       52.8
1192   Importers, Exporters and
       Wholesalers                          3.75       18.0       20.1
1193   Manufacturers                        5.00       28.6       28.4

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    5.23      199.5
                                    2011    5.09                 223.8

12     Specialist Managers                 motor

1211   Finance Managers                     8.75       48.1       55.2
1212   Company Secretaries                  8.75        0.3        0.3
1213   Human Resource Managers              3.75       36.8       43.1
1221   Engineering Managers                 8.75       16.4       18.4
1222   Production Managers                  8.75       45.5       51.3
1223   Supply and Distribution
       Managers                             7.50       26.3       30.7
1224   Information Technology
       Managers                             8.75       47.0       57.8
1231   Sales and Marketing
       Managers                             5.00      129.2      151.3
1291   Policy and Planning
       Managers                             8.75       18.2       19.3
1292   Health Services Managers             5.00       11.8       13.8
1293   Education Managers                   5.00       28.0       30.2
1294   Commissioned Officers
       (Management)                         5.00        1.0        0.9
1295   Child Care Coordinators              5.00        7.4        8.6
1296   Media Producers and
       Artistic Directors                   5.00        5.7        5.7
1299   Other Specialist Managers            5.00       33.4       38.9

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    6.49      455.3
                                    2011    6.49                 525.5

13     Farmers and Farm Managers           motor

1311   Mixed Crop and Livestock
       Farmers                              6.25       41.3       37.7
1312   Livestock Farmers                    6.25       85.2       81.8
1313   Crop Farmers                         6.25       57.7       54.6
1314   Aquaculture Farmers                  6.25        2.2        2.4

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    6.25      186.3
                                    2011    6.25                 176.5

32     Business and
       Administration Associate
       professional                        Motor

3211   Branch Accountants and
       Managers (Financial
       Institution)                         5.00       15.8       14.2
3212   Financial Dealers and
       Brokers                              5.00       65.9       78.7
3213   Financial Investment
       Advisers                             5.00       29.0       34.1
3291   Office Managers                      3.75      153.4      186.6
3292   Project and Program
       Administrators                       3.75       87.9      106.9
3293   Real Estate Associate
       Professionals                        1.25       65.5       73.0
3294   Computing Support
       Technicians                          8.75       41.8       48.0

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    4.15      459.2
                                    2011    4.15                 541.4

33     Managing Supervisors
       (Sales and Service)                 Motor

3311   Shop Managers                        3.75      186.2      182.5
3321   Restaurant and Catering
       Managers                             3.75       50.7       58.0
3322   Chefs                                8.75       53.9       63.1
3323   Hotel and Motel Managers             3.75       21.8       21.3
3324   Club Managers (Licensed
       Premises)                            3.75        6.1        6.3
3325   Caravan Park and Camping
       Ground Managers                      3.75        4.1        4.1
3329   Other Hospitality and
       Accommodation Managers               3.75        8.4        9.6
3391   Sport and Recreation
       Managers                             3.75        9.0        9.4
3392   Customer Service Managers            3.75       39.5       49.2
3393   Transport Company Managers           3.75       17.4       18.5
3399   Other Managing Supervisors
       (Sales and Service)                  3.75       45.4       45.9

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    4.36      442.6
                                    2011    4.42                 467.8

34     Health and Welfare
       Associate Professionals             Motor

3411   Enrolled Nurses                      3.75       33.5       33.2
3421   Welfare Associate
       Professionals                        1.25       22.2       26.0
3491   Ambulance Officers and
       Paramedics                           8.75       10.3       11.0
3492   Dental Associate
       Professionals                        8.75        4.9        5.2
3493   Aboriginal and Torres
       Strait Islander Health
       Workers                              3.75        1.1        1.2
3494   Massage Therapists                   8.75        8.8       10.5

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    4.55       80.8
                                    2011    4.54                  87.0

39     Other Associate
       Professionals                       Motor

3911   Police Officers                      7.50       50.4       54.6
3991   Primary Products
       Inspectors                           8.75        5.4        5.7
3992   Safety inspectors                    6.25        4.7        5.0
3993   Sportspersons, Coaches and
       Related Support Workers              3.75       23.7       27.3
3994   Senior Non-Commissioned
       Defence Force Officers               6.25        0.1        0.1
3995   Senior Fire Fighters                 8.75        0.7        0.7
3996   Retail Buyers                        3.75        5.7        6.6
3997   Library Technicians                  7.50        7.5        7.8
3999   Other Miscellaneous
       Associate Professionals              3.75        6.1        1.9

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    6.24      104.3
                                    2011    6.29                 109.6

41     Mechanical and Fabrication
       Engineering Tradespersons           Motor

4111   General Mechanical
       Engineering Tradespersons            8.75        5.4        5.6
4112   Metal Fitters and
       Machinists                           8.75      104.7      103.2
4113   Toolmakers                          10.00        7.2        6.5
4114   Aircraft Maintenance
       Engineers                            8.75       12.2       13.6
4115   Precision Metal
       Tradespersons                        8.75        6.8        6.6
4121   General Fabrication
       Engineering Tradespersons            8.75        1.4        1.4
4122   Structural Steel and
       Welding Tradespersons                8.75       71.6       73.4
4123   Forging Tradespersons                8.75        1.6        1.4
4124   Sheetmetal Tradespersons             8.75        6.6        6.2
4125   Metal Casting
       Tradespersons                        8.75        0.8        0.7
4126   Metal Finishing
       Tradespersons                        8.75        1.4        1.3

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    8.79      219.8
                                    2011    8.79                 220.0

42     Automotive Tradespersons            Motor

4211   Motor Mechanics                      8.75       92.2       89.0
4212   Automotive Electricians              8.75        9.2        9.3
4213   Panel Beaters                        8.75       16.5   15.5ASCO
4214   Vehicle Painters                     8.75       12.1       12.3
4215   Vehicle Body Makers                  8.75        3.3        3.1
4216   Vehicle Trimmers                     8.75        2.2        2.3

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    8.75      135.5
                                    2011    8.75                 131.5

43     Electrical and Electronics
       Tradespersons                       Motor

4311   Electricians                         8.75      104.8      112.3
4312   Refrigeration and
       Airconditioning Mechanics            8.75       18.5       20.2
4313   Electrical Distribution
       Tradespersons                        8.75        6.3        6.1

31     Science, Engineering and
       Related Associate
       Professionals                       Motor

3111   Medical Technical Officers           8.75       20.7       24.1
3112   Science Technical Officers           8.75       20.6       19.4
3121   Building, Architectural
       and Surveying Associate
       Professionals                        8.75       57.3       62.6
3122   Civil Engineering
       Associate Professionals              8.75        7.7        7.3
3123   Electrical Engineering
       Associate Professionals              8.75        8.4        8.3
3124   Electronic Engineering
       Associate Professionals              8.75       10.7       10.3
3125   Mechanical Engineering
       Associate Professionals              8.75        5.1        4.7
3129   Other Building and
       Engineering Associate
       Professionals                        8.75       10.3       10.6

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    8.75      140.7
                                    2011    8.75                 147.3

4314   Electronic Instrument
       Tradespersons                        8.75        2.2        2.2
4315   Electronic and Office
       Equipment Tradespersons              8.75       32.7       34.7
4316   Communications
       Tradespersons                        8.75       25.0       22.8

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    8.75      189.5
                                    2011    8.75                 198.2

44     Construction Tradespersons          Motor

4411   Carpentry and Joinery
       Tradespersons                        8.75      114.4      120.9
4412   Fibrous Plasterers                   5.00       22.5       23.5
4413   Roof Slaters and Tilers              8.75        9.1        9.8
4414   Bricklayers                          8.75       27.4       28.3
4415   Solid Plasterers                     8.75        8.2        8.9
4416   Wall and Floor Tilers and
       Stonemasons                          8.75       23.2        5.0
4421   Painters and Decorators              8.75       46.7       49.8
4422   Signwriters                          8.75        6.8        6.9
4423   Floor Finishers                      6.25        9.9       10.8
4431   Plumbers                             8.75       69.0       74.0

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    8.43      337.2
                                    2011    8.41                 338.0

45     Food Tradespersons                  Motor

4511   Meat Tradespersons                   5.00       24.9       22.7
4512   Bakers and Pastrycooks               7.50       24.2       25.8
4513   Cooks                                5.00       35.5       37.3
4519   Other Food Tradespersons             5.00        4.0        0.9

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    5.68       88.5
                                    2011    5.74                  86.8

46     Skilled Agricultural and
       Horticultural Workers               Motor

4611   Farm Overseers                       3.75        2.0        1.9
4612   Shearers                             7.50        5.4        4.8
4613   Wool, Hide and Skin
       Classers                             5.00        1.0        1.0
4614   Animal Trainers                      3.75        3.8        3.7
4621   Nurserypersons                       5.00        5.7        5.9
4622   Greenkeepers                         6.25       15.9       16.6
4623   Gardeners                            3.75       64.6       73.4

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    4.45       98.4
                                    2011    4.39                 107.4

49     Other Tradespersons and
       Related Workers                     Motor

4911   Graphic Pre-Press
       Tradespersons                        8.75        2.2        2.0
4912   Printing Machinists and
       Small Offset Printers                8.75       12.9       11.9
4913   Binders and Finishers                7.50        3.5        3.5
4914   Screen Printers                      6.25        2.3        2.2
4921   Wood Machinists and
       Turners                              8.75        3.1        2.9
4922   Cabinetmakers                        8.75       30.2       31.3
4929   Other Wood Tradespersons             7.50        5.0        2.1
4931   Hairdressers                         8.75       54.2       58.6
4941   Clothing Tradespersons               6.25        9.5        8.6
4942   Upholsterers and Bedding
       Tradespersons                        8.75        3.9        4.0
4943   Footwear Tradespersons               8.75        1.4        1.2
4944   Leather Goods, Canvas
       Goods and Sail Makers                8.75        1.3        1.0
4981   Marine Construction
       Tradespersons                        8.75        5.6        6.2
4982   Glass Tradespersons                  8.75        8.3        8.6
4983   Jewellers and Related
       Tradespersons                        8.75        3.5        3.3
4984   Florists                             5.00        6.7        6.9
4985   Fire Fighters                        7.50        9.7        9.9
4986   Drillers                             7.50        6.6        6.7
4987   Chemical, Petroleum and
       Gas Plant Operators                  7.50        4.8        4.3
4988   Power Generation Plant
       Operators                            7.50        5.0        5.0
4991   Defence Force Members Not
       Elsewhere Included                   6.25        0.1        0.1
4992   Performing Arts Support
       Workers                              3.75       11.8       12.5
4999   Other Miscellaneous
       Tradespersons and Related
       Workers                              7.50       11.1        2.6

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    7.91      202.6
                                    2011    7.94                 195.6

51     Secretaries and Personal
       Assistants                          Motor

5111   Secretaries and Personal
       Assistants                           1.25      171.4      159.7

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    1.25      171.4
                                    2011    1.25                 159.7

59     Other Advanced Clerical
       and Service Workers                 Motor

5911   Bookkeepers                          2.50      137.5      154.1
5912   Credit and Loans Officers            3.75       26.8       30.2
5991   Advanced Legal and
       Related Clerks                       3.75       20.4       21.7
5992   Court and Hansard
       Reporters                            7.50        1.3        1.2
5993   Insurance Agents                     3.75        9.2        8.9
5994   Insurance Risk Surveyors,
       Investigators and Loss
       Adjusters                            3.75        7.3        7.9
5995   Desktop Publishing
       Operators                            6.25        1.1        1.0
5996   Travel Attendants                    3.75       12.3       13.7
5999   Other Miscellaneous
       Advanced Clerical and
       Service Workers                      3.75       10.0        6.2

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    3.02      225.8
                                    2011    2.99                 245.0

61     Intermediate Clerical
       Workers                             Motor

6111   General Clerks                       1.25      120.1      134.5
6121   Keyboard Operators                   6.25       93.5       81.1
6131   Receptionists                        3.75      165.4      184.4
6141   Accounting Clerks                    3.75      115.2      101.5
6142   Payroll Clerks                       3.75       31.2       30.4
6143   Bank Workers                         3.75       52.1       46.1
6144   Insurance Clerks                     1.25       18.7       18.3
6145   Money Market and
       Statistical Clerks                   3.75        2.6        2.5
6151   Production Recording
       Clerks                               3.75        3.7        3.4
6152   Transport and Despatching
       Clerks                               3.75       27.0       28.7
6153   Stock and Purchasing
       Clerks                               3.75       83.3       88.4
6191   Inquiry and Admissions
       Clerks                               1.25      106.4      125.7
6192   Library Assistants                   1.25        7.8        7.5
6193   Personnel Clerks                     1.25       11.9       10.6
6194   Intermediate Inspectors
       and Examiners                        1.25       25.7       29.2
6199   Other Intermediate
       Clerical Workers                     1.25       25.0        2.6

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    3.12      892.0
                                    2011    3.06                 895.1

62     Intermediate Sales and
       Related Workers                     Motor

6211   Sales Representatives                1.25      113.0      117.6
6212   Motor Vehicle and Related
       Products Salespersons                1.25       31.4       34.0
6213   Retail and Checkout
       Supervisors                          1.25       27.3       31.4

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    1.25      171.7
                                    2011    1.25                 183.0

63     Intermediate Service
       Workers                             Motor

6311   Education Aides                      1.25       60.0       67.6
6312   Children's Care Workers              1.25       91.1      105.6
6313   Special Care Workers                 1.25       74.8       74.1
6314   Personal Care and Nursing
       Assistants                           1.25       62.6       73.6
6321   Hotel Service Supervisors            1.25        4.1        3.8
6322   Bar Attendants                       3.75       54.6       60.5
6323   Waiters                              1.25       99.4      110.3
6324   Hospitality Trainees                 1.25        0.4        0.2
6391   Dental Assistants                    3.75       17.1       18.1
6392   Veterinary Nurses                    3.75        7.7        8.0
6393   Prison Officers                      1.25       11.2       12.3
6394   Gaming Workers                       3.75       10.4       10.6
6395   Personal Care Consultants            3.75       23.6       21.5
6396   Fitness Instructors and
       Related Workers                      3.75       29.3       35.1
6397   Travel and Tourism Agents            3.75       25.7       25.2
6399   Other Intermediate Service
       Workers                              3.75       26.2        7.2

       WEIGHTED AVERAGE             2006    2.06      598.1
                                    2011    1.98                 633.9

                              DOT score/range      Current study
                                                (original score)

Chef           Cognitive                  1-3                  2
              Interactive                 3-6                2 *
                   Motor                    1                  1

                              DOT score/range      Current study
                                                (original score)

Electrician    Cognitive                  1-3                  2
              Interactive                 6-8                  6
                   Motor                  0-2                  1

                              DOT score/range      Current study
                                                (original score)

Plumber        Cognitive                  1-6                  4
              Interactive                 3-8                  7
                   Motor                    1                  1

                              DOT score/range      Current study
                                                (original score)

Bricklayer     Cognitive                  1-6                  6
              Interactive                 3-8                  8
                   Motor                    1                  1

                              DOT score/range      Current study
                                                (original score)

Secretary      Cognitive                  1-3                  3
              Interactive                   6                  6
                   Motor                    2                  5

                                          DOT      Current study
                                  score/range   (original score)

Motor          Cognitive                  2-6                  4
Mechanic      Interactive                 6-8                  7
                   Motor                    1                  1

                                Current study
                            (scaled inverted)

Chef           Cognitive                 7.14
              Interactive                7.78
                   Motor                 8.75

                                Current study
                            (scaled inverted)

Electrician    Cognitive                 7.14
              Interactive                3.33
                   Motor                 8.75

                                Current study
                            (scaled inverted)

Plumber        Cognitive                 4.29
              Interactive                2.22
                   Motor                 8.75

                                Current study
                            (scaled inverted)

Bricklayer     Cognitive                 1.43
              Interactive                1.11
                   Motor                 8.75

                                Current study
                            (scaled inverted)

Secretary      Cognitive                 5.71
              Interactive                5.56
                   Motor                 1.25

                                Current study
                            (scaled inverted)

Motor          Cognitive                 4.29
Mechanic      Interactive                2.22
                   Motor                 8.75


Appendix 4

In order to check the validity of the skill scores allocated in this study, a sample of occupations were selected and were checked against the scores contained in the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT). Occupations classified in DOT are listed and described in more detail than the occupational titles used in this study (which are based on ASCO and DEWR sources). For example, we include the simple occupational title 'plumber' in our study, yet the DOT contains six categories of plumber, with a range of skill scores for each category. In the tables below we present a comparison of the range of DOT skill scores with the scores allocated in this study. In all cases but two in the sample of occupations selected, the tables reveal that our allocated scores were in the range of scores allocated by the DOT.

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Endnotes

(1) For purposes here low skilled labour included all occupations at ASCO Levels 8 and 9, medium skilled labour was all occupations at ASCO Levels 4 to 7, and high skilled labour was all other occupations at ASCO level 1 to 3.

(2) The genesis of the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) dates back to the 1930's and was last published in 1991. It was developed in an industrial economy during an era that focused on 'blue-collar' occupations. It has been argued that its utility has been reduced with the increased emphasis on service-based and knowledge-based economies. In recent times the 'O-NET' has been developed (on the foundations of DOT), providing detailed information in approximately 1120 occupations and is periodically updated to reflect the changing nature of employment. At the time of preparing this study, the authors were unaware of the O-NET, hence it has not been used in this study.

(3) Where the common scale = 10--(new range/old range)*new score). This keeps the order and relative distance in tact and inverts the scale, such that higher levels of skill correspond with higher numerical values. Sensitivity tests on this scaling method undertaken in previous studies (see for example Kelly and Lewis, 2004) have shown no negative effects of extending the range of the scale in this way.

(4) Mr. Bill Healey, Secretary, Australian Hotels Association.

(5) Mr. Peter Glynn, Chief Executive Officer, National Electrical and Communication Association

(6) Ms. Mary Leighton, Organisational Capability Manager, Coles-Myer Institute.

(7) Mr. Phil Morton, SA General Manager, Hudson (Global Resources & Human Capital Solutions)

(8) The Sarbanes-Oxley Act 2002 involves significant changes to securities laws for all US listed organizations. The Act was passe in large part to protect investors by improving the accuracy and reliability of corporate disclosures made pursuant to the securities laws. One of the most significant provisions within Sarbanes-Oxley are the criminal and civil penalties that place executive management and the board of directors in the 'hot seat'. Specifically, under Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, executives need to certify and demonstrate that) files containing accounting information have not been compromised, and 2) all significant technical controls, including security authorisations and critical configuration files have not been compromised. The Act thus has clear implications for the skill set of accountant and financial controllers.
Table 1: Shah and Burke's (2003) Classification of Occupations
According to Impact of Globalisation and Technological Change

Occupation Type                      Examples

Globally advantaged occupations   1. Conceptual occupations, eg.
                                     Managers, financial dealers,
                                     various professional groups such
                                     as scientists, media and arts
                                     occupations
                                  2. Technical occupations, such as
                                     most technicians and other
                                     associate professional
                                     occupations

Insulated Occupations             1. In-person professionals such as
                                     medical practitioners and school
                                     teachers
                                  2. In-person skilled workers such as
                                     real estate workers, community
                                     service workers and
                                     police-officers
                                  3. In-person low-skill workers such
                                     as waiters, bus drivers,
                                     elementary sales and service
                                     workers

Vulnerable occupations            1. Advanced skills such as skilled
                                     tradespersons
                                  2. White-collar clerical such as
                                     various clerks, secretarial and
                                     word-processing jobs
                                  3. Blue-collar operative such as
                                     machine operators
                                  4. Manual low skill, including
                                     production assemblers and
                                     process workers

Source: Shah and Burke (2003)

Table 2: Business use of Selected Technologies in Australia.
1994-2004, per cent (a)

                                                            2003
                         1994   1998   2000   2001   2002   (b)    2004

Businesses with            49     63     76     84     84     83     85
Computers

Business with Internet    na      29     56     69     71     71     74
access

Businesses with Web       na       6     16     22     24     23     25
presence

(a) Proportions are of all businesses

(b) Changed survey frame due to The New Tax System (TNTS), some
caution required against making comparisons between 2003 and
subsequent estimates.

Source: ABS (2005) Cat. No. 81290.0

Table 3: Scale of Complexity for Skill Categories

Cognitive Skills    Interactive Skills
('Data')            ('People')               Motor Skills ('Things')

0 Synthesising      0 Mentoring              0 Setting Up
1 Coordinating      1 Negotiating            1 Precision Working
2 Analysing         2 Instructing            2 Operating -Controlling
3 Compiling         3 Supervising            3 Driving-Operating
4 Computing         4 Diverting              4 Manipulating
5 Copying           5 Persuading             5 Tending
6 Comparing         6 Speaking-Signalling    6 Feeding-Off bearing
                    7 Serving                7 Handling
                    8 Taking Instructions
                      --Helping

Table 4: Employed Persons, Actual and Projected (Industry Approach),
2006 and 2011

                                                              Projected
                                                 Employment   Employed
                                                       2005        2011

PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES 1

Designers and Illustrators (3)                       27,000      31,374
Bookkeepers (5)                                      28,800      33,466
Secretaries and Personal Assistants (5)              55,100      64,026
Receptionists (6)                                    24,700      28,701
Security Officers and Guards (6)                     26,600      30,909

PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES 2

Accountants (3)                                      71,600      83,199
Real Estate Agents (3)                               63,900      74,252

HEALTH AND COMMUNITY SERVICES 1

Nurses Aides and Personal Care Assistants (6)        66,100      77,205
Carers, Hostel and Refuge Workers (6)                64,700      75,570
Child Care Workers (6)                               63,800      74,518
Receptionists (6)                                    59,800      69,846

HEALTH AND COMMUNITY SERVICES 2

Welfare and Community Workers (3)                    20,000      23,360
Enrolled Nurses (3)                                  25,500      29,784

RETAIL TRADE 1

Sales Assistants (6)                                488,900     544,635
Checkout Operators and Cashiers (6)                 104,800     116,747
Storepersons                                         66,900      74,527
Kitchenhands                                         30,300      33,754
Retail and Checkout Supervisors (6)                  22,200      24,731
Fast Food Cooks (4)                                  18,400      20,498

RETAIL TRADE 2

Motor Mechanics (4)                                  68,200      75,975
Motor Vehicle and Parts Salespersons (6)             18,400      20,498

CONSTRUCTION

Carpenters and Joiners (4)                           81,700      89,543
Electricians (4)                                     58,200      63,787
Plumbers (4)                                         52,000      56,992
Painters and Decorators (4)                          40,200      44,059
Builders' and Plumbers' Assistants                   34,200      37,483
Construction Plant Operators                         33,400      36,606
Concreters (4)                                       32,300      35,401
Bricklayers (4)                                      26,600      29,154

ACCOMMODATION, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 1

Waiters (6)                                          94,600     107,087
Bar Attendants (6)                                   55,300      62,600
Kitchenhands (6)                                     40,000      45,280
Cooks (4)                                            19,200      21,734
Sales Assistants (6)                                 17,600      19,923
Receptionists (6)                                    15,800      17,886

ACCOMMODATION, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 2

Chefs (3)                                            40,400      45,733
Restaurant and Catering Managers (3)                 41,400      46,865
Hotel and Motel Managers (3)                         23,400      26,489

Table 5: Occupations and Industry Classification Used for the Industry
Approach

                                       Cognitive   Interactive   Motor

Receptionists (6)                           2.86          3.33    3.75
Security Officers and Guards (6)            1.43          5.56    3.75
Accountants (3)                             7.14          7.78    5.00
Real Estate Agents (3)                      5.71          8.89    1.25
Child Care Workers (6)                      2.86          5.56    1.25
Enrolled Nurses (3)                         5.71          4.44    3.75
Electricians (4)                            7.14          3.33    8.75
Plumbers (4)                                4.29          2.22    8.75
Painters and Decorators (4)                 4.29          2.22    8.75
Builders' and Plumbers Assistants           1.43          1.11    5.00
Construction Plant Operators                1.43          1.11    6.25
Concreters (4)                              1.43          1.11    8.75
Bricklayers (4)                             1.43          1.11    8.75
Waiters (6)                                 2.86          4.44    1.25
Cooks (4)                                   2.86          3.33    5.00
Sales Assistants (6)                        2.86          4.44    1.25
Receptionists (6)                           2.86          3.33    3.75
Restaurant and Catering Managers (3)        5.71          6.67    1.25

Table 6: Industry skill dimension estimates, aggregate (weighted
average) skill dimensions scores and percentage change

                                    Cognitive   Interactive   Motor

Property and Business Services 1         4.57          4.82    2.66
Property and Business Services 2         6.47          8.30    3.23
Health and Community Services 1          2.86          3.32    1.84
Health and Community Services 2          5.93          4.74    4.10
Retail Trade 1                           1.53          3.74    1.22
Retail Trade 2                           3.99          2.22    7.69
Construction                             3.74          2.26    8.16
Accommodation, Cafes and                 2.30          3.22    2.28
  Restaurants 1
Accommodation, Cafes and                 6.26          7.10    4.13
  Restaurants 2

All Industries Above
Weighted Average 2005                    3.13          3.88    3.30
Weighted Average 2010                    3.14          3.90    3.28
Percentage Change 2005-2010              0.46          0.42   -0.41

Figure 3: Projected Employment Growth to 2010 (Industry % share)

Culture & recreational services    4%
Property & business services      23%
Health & community services       21%
Retail trade                      21%
Construction                      10%
Accomm. Cafes & restaurants        8%
Personal & other services          5%
Education                          4%
Other industries                   4%

Source: DEWR (2005)

Note: Table made from pie chart.

Figure 4: Projected Employment Growth to 2010 Top 10 Industries
('000 per annum)

Property and business services      33.2
Health & community services         30.5
Retail Trade                        29.6
Construction                        13.7
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants  11.7
Personal & other services            7.9
Cultural & recreational services     6.0
Education                            5.8
Government administration & defence  5.4
Transport & storage                  4.0

Source: DEWR (2005)

Note: Table made from bar graph.
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Author:Lowry, Diannah; Molloy, Simon; McGlennon, Samuel
Publication:Australian Bulletin of Labour
Geographic Code:8AUST
Date:Jun 1, 2008
Words:18730
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