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FIRST ANALYST TO PREDICT CHRISTMAS 'BONANZA' GIVES '93 STOCK PICKS LYNCH, JONES & RYAN'S JOHNSON FORECASTS WINTER RETAIL SLOWDOWN

 NEW YORK, Jan. 8 /PRNewswire/ -- Shoppers may feel a charge card hangover from their Christmas spree. Retail sales this winter could slow, according to a forecast issued today by Ed Johnson, retailing industry analyst at Lynch, Jones & Ryan and director of the Johnson Redbook market report on the retail trade.
 Johnson was the first analyst to accurately peg the Christmas shopping season's "bonanza" for retailers. The holiday shopping season accounted for 24 percent of last year's $400 billion in general merchandise, apparel and furniture sales. December 1992 department and chain store sales were up a healthy 10.9 percent over the dismal results for Christmas 1991 - and in line with Johnson's forecast. On July 27 he went out on a limb to project that retail Christmas sales would rise six percent or better over 1991 - an estimate he revised upward to "nine percent or higher" on Nov. 23.
 Results for the first quarter of this year may mean a return to earth for retailers, Johnson warned. "The euphoria for retailers of a stunning Christmas season will soon be replaced by the reality of comparisons with soaring sales last January and February. While the December 1992 sales level was a 10.9 percent improvement on a year earlier, it was just a 6.2 percent increase over January 1992 and a 3.4 percent increase over last February. There is some concern that consumers' enthusiasm for spending will be dampened as credit card bills arrive this month."
 Spring should bring a quickening of the retail pace, however. "Comparisons will be easier when March arrives. Also, Easter - which brings out holiday shoppers -- arrives a week earlier this year than last. All in all, we would look for sales for the retail April quarter to be up 4 to 5 percent over a year ago. Not tremendous, but not shabby either," Johnson said.
 A big winner in the growing consumer preference for off-price and discount retailers, Johnson noted, is Caldor (NYSE: CLD). His original "buy" recommendation dates from April 28, when the stock was at 13-5/8. It now trades above $27-a-share. (A full list of Johnson's retail recommendations follows).
 One of the better-known analysts covering retailing and related industries, Mr. Johnson has been publishing the Johnson Redbook of market data for more than 30 years. The report's weekly retail sales report is a de facto leading indicator of economic activity nationwide. It has also been cited by the Wall Street Journal as the "hottest new forecasting tool" for bond traders because "consumer spending accounts for about one-third of the nation's economic activity."
 Lynch, Jones & Ryan, founded in 1966, is a securities brokerages firm well known for its agency trading capabilities. The firm transacts equity and fixed-income trades for more than 1,000 institutional money management clients around the world and is a pioneer in providing independent research services to institutional investors, currently offering more than 500 research and measurement products to its clients. In addition, the firm's Plan Sponsor Services division is the largest provider of commission recapture programs, with over 400 corporate, public and Taft-Hartley fund clients.
 LYNCH, JONES & RYAN JOHNSON REDBOOK
 SOFT GOODS RECOMMENDATIONS
 Date Price Current Growth Projected Price
 App. Company Symbol Rec. At Rec. Price Rate(Pct.) Apprec. in a
 Year
 Bradlees BLE 11/23 $18.50 $17.50 14 $29 66 percent
 Caldors CLD 4/27 $13.50 27.75 20 52 88
 Clothestime CTME 12/18 $ 9.88 11.00 20 15 36
 Venture VEN 12/18 $26.25 27.25 13 38 39
 Bernard Chaus CHS 12/24 $ 7.38 6.50 25 11 69
 Farah FRA 8/13 $ 5.88 7.75 N/A 13 86
 Leslie Fay LES 4/20 $15.88 12.13 20 20 65
 Kellwood KWD 5/17 $25.00 27.00 18 42 52
 Delta Woodside DLW 12/31 $14.50 14.50 20 22 56
 Forstmann FSTM 6/8 $ 8.00 6.75 12 15 122
 Texfi TXF 12/25 $ 6.25 6.75 15 14 107
 -0- 1/8/93
 /CONTACT: David Kogut of GCI Corporate & Financial, 212-546-2687, or Ed Johnson of Johnson Redbook of Lynch, Jones & Ryan, 212-243-3137/


CO: Lynch, Jones & Ryan ST: New York IN: REA SU: ECO

LR-OS -- NY014 -- 2993 01/08/93 11:25 EST
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Date:Jan 8, 1993
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