Printer Friendly

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA ISSUES THE JUNE 1992 LIVINGSTON SURVEY

 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA ISSUES
 THE JUNE 1992 LIVINGSTON SURVEY
 PHILADELPHIA, June 30 /PRNewswire/ -- Real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter, a marked slowdown from the 2.7 percent growth posted in the first quarter, according to the forecasters who responded to the June Livingston Survey, the economic research department of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said today.
 However, growth is expected to rebound in the second half of 1992, reaching an average rate of 2.9 percent. The forecasters see continued moderate growth in 1993, when real GDP is expected to rise at a 3 percent annual rate.
 The moderate growth path for output translates into a slow decline in the rate of unemployment, which stood at 7.5 percent of the labor force in May. Livingston Survey respondents see the unemployment rate falling to 7 percent by December and to 6.8 percent in June of 1993. For 1993 as a whole, unemployment is expected to average 6.7 percent of the labor force. In 1989, the year before the recession hit, the unemployment rate averaged 5.3 percent.
 Inflationary expectations remain subdued. The forecasters anticipate that consumer prices will rise an average of 3.6 percent, both in the second half of 1992 and in 1993 as well. Over a longer horizon, survey respondents expect inflation to move above current levels. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is forecast to average 4 percent per year over the next 10 years. However, this long-term average is down slightly from the average 4.2 percent inflation that prevailed through the 1980s.
 Demand is expected to show strength in the second half, driving the increase in output. Retail sales are forecast to increase at a 6.6 percent annual rate through the fourth quarter. Automobile sales are expected to grow more strongly, rising at nearly a 12 percent annual rate in the second half.
 The residential housing market is expected to post healthy growth in the second half of 1992 as well. Starts are expected to run at an annual pace of 1.29 million units in December, which translates into annual growth of more than 14 percent from second-quarter levels.
 Business fixed investment is expected to increase at a somewhat more moderate pace of 4.6 percent (at an annual rate) over the next six months. For 1993, the forecasters see business fixed investment growing more rapidly, at a 5.5 percent annual rate.
 For the first time, survey respondents were asked to give forecasts of short-term and long-term interest rates. For short-term interest rates, as measured by the three-month Treasury bill, the forecast is for a slight increase in yields to an average of 4 percent at year-end. Long-term rates, as measured by the yield on 30-year maturity Treasury bonds, are expected to be up slightly from current levels, reaching 7.9 percent at year-end. For 1993, long-term interest rates are expected to move up to an average of 8.1 percent.
 Started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston, the Livingston Survey is the oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations. It summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking and academia. It is now published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in June and December.
 THE LIVINGSTON SURVEY, JUNE 1992
 December June Full yr. Full yr.
 Indicator Latest 1992 1993 1992 1993
 Gross Domestic
 Product
 (billions)(I) $5820.6(A) 6067.3(Q) 6269.7(Q) 5948.3 6315.3
 Real Gross
 Domestic Product
 (bil. '87)(I) $4900.9(A) 4988.3(Q) 5067.0(Q) 4935.1 5081.5
 Real nonresidential
 fixed investment
 (bil. '87)(I) $509.5(A) 524.7(Q) 542.5(Q) 517.2 545.7
 Corporate profits
 after taxes
 (billions)(I) 211.2(A) 235.2(Q) 248.1(Q) 223.1 249.7
 Industrial production
 (1987 equals 100) 108.8(B) 112.0 114.5 109.9 117.8
 Total private
 housing starts
 (millions) 1.230(B) 1.294 1.329 1.245 1.327
 Producer prices --
 finished goods 123.1(B) 125.3 128.5 123.7 128.1
 Consumer prices 139.7(B) 142.9 145.4 140.8 145.8
 Unemployment rate
 (percent) 7.5(B) 7.0 6.8 7.2 6.7
 Average weekly
 earnings in
 manufacturing $470.2(B) 477.5 486.5 469.5 487.5
 Retail trade
 (billions)(I) $158.8(B) 165.0 170.1 163.8 173.5
 Automobile sales,
 including foreign
 (millions)(I) 8.2(B) 9.0 9.2 8.6 9.4
 Prime interest rate
 (percent) 6.5(C) 6.6 7.1 --- 7.3
 30-Year U.S. Treasury
 Bond (percent) 7.8(C) 7.9 8.1 --- 8.1
 90-Day U.S. Treasury
 Bill (percent) 3.7(C) 4.0 4.7 --- 4.8
 Stock prices
 (S&P 500) 403.5(C) 384.1(S) 398.0(S) --- 414.7(S)
 (I) Seasonally adjusted annual rate
 (A) First quarter 1992
 (B) May 1992
 (C) June 26, 1992
 (Q) Forecast for quarter
 (S) End of month or year
 Following are the June 1992 Livingston Survey participants:
 Tucker H. Adams, The Adams Group, Inc.; Kermit Baker, Cahners Publishing Co., Inc.; David Berson, Leonard Mills, Federal National Mortgage Association; Paul W. Boltz, T. Rowe Price Associates; Ian Borsook, Merrill Lynch; William A. Brown, Morgan Guaranty Trust Co.; Dr. Wynn V. Bussmann, Chrysler Corp.; Edward J. Campbell, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.; Gary L. Ciminero, Fleet Financial Group; Phil Cummins, Pennzoil Co.; Frederick T. Dixon, ICI Americas Inc.; Joseph W. Duncan, Dun & Bradstreet Corp.; Dr. G.C. Eads, General Motors Corp.; Robert J. Eggert, Eggert Economic Enterprises, Inc.; Gail Fosler, Conference Board; Robert Giordano, Goldman, Sachs & Co.; George A. Guy, Fremont Mutual Insurance Co.; Dr. Lacy H. Hunt, Hongkong Bank; Professor Saul H. Hymans, University of Michigan; Howard Keen Jr., Consolidated Rail Corp.; Irwin L. Kellner, Manufacturers Hanover Trust Co.; Dr. David L. Littmann, Manufacturers National Bank; John G. Lonski, Moody's Investors Service, Inc.; Dr. Kenneth T. Mayland, Society National Bank; Dr. Ralph M. Monaco, U.S. Department of Agriculture; Robert R. Nathan, Robert R. Nathan Associates, Inc.; Richard S. Peterson, Continental Bank; Professor Wallace C. Peterson, University of Nebraska; Dr. Joel Popkin, Joel Popkin & Co.; Ronald Promboin, Amoco Corp.; Professor Donald Ratajczak, Georgia State University; Lynn Reaser, First Interstate Bancorp.; Charles B. Reeder, Charles Reeder Associates; Richard D. Rippe, Prudential Securities; Stephen S. Roach, Morgan Stanley & Co., Inc.; Norman Robertson, Mellon Bank N.A.; John W. Skorburg, Chicago Association of Commerce and Industry; Herman Starobin, International Ladies Garment Workers' Union; Richard A. Stuckey, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.; Thomas W. Synnott III, United States Trust Co. of New York; John Tuccillo, National Association of Realtors; Theodore H. Tung, National City Bank; Robert Villanueva, National Association of Home Builders; Joseph V. Vincenzino, Metropolitan Life Insurance Co.; Seymour L. Wolfbein, T.W.O.; and David A. Wyss, Data Resources, Inc.
 /delval/
 -0- 6/30/92
 /CONTACT: Rossana Mancini of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 215-574-3810/ CO: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ST: Pennsylvania IN: FIN SU: ECO


CC-LJ -- PH018 -- 5193 06/30/92 13:06 EDT
COPYRIGHT 1992 PR Newswire Association LLC
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1992 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Article Details
Printer friendly Cite/link Email Feedback
Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Jun 30, 1992
Words:1204
Previous Article:INTERMEDIA AFFILIATE ACQUIRES 114,000 CUSTOMERS IN MIDWEST, BRINGING FOUR-YEAR-OLD MSO TO MORE THAN 505,000 SUBSCRIBERS
Next Article:TELECONCEPTS SETS NEW DATE FOR SPECIAL MEETING TO APPROVE MERGER


Related Articles
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA ISSUES THE JUNE 1992 LIVINGSTON SURVEY
PHILADELPHIA FED RELEASES THIRD QUARTER 1992 SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
PHILADELPHIA FED RELEASES FOURTH QUARTER 1992 SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE BANK RELEASES LIVINGSTON SURVEY
PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE BANK RELEASES LIVINGSTON SURVEY
PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE BANK RELEASES LIVINGSTON SURVEY
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to Release Livingston Survey Friday.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to Release Livingston Survey Friday.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to Release Livingston Survey Friday.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Releases Livingston Survey.

Terms of use | Copyright © 2017 Farlex, Inc. | Feedback | For webmasters