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FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK OF NEW YORK FORECASTS NEW YORK-NEW JERSEY ECONOMIES FOR 1992-1993

 FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK OF NEW YORK FORECASTS
 NEW YORK-NEW JERSEY ECONOMIES FOR 1992-1993
 NEW YORK, April 20 /PRNewswire/ -- The Federal Home Loan Bank released its forecast of the New York-New Jersey economies for the 1992-93 period today.
 The good news, according to the forecast, is that the groundwork for recovery has begun. The bad news is that the recovery in these mid-Atlantic states will lag the nation's recovery by at least one year.
 Rae D. Rosen, vice president and senior economist at the bank, expects New York State to lose over 130,000 jobs in 1992 following a loss of 360,000 jobs during the prior two years. Rosen expects New Jersey to lose another 34,000 jobs this year following the loss of nearly 200,000 jobs during the prior two years.
 There are glimmers of a turnaround in the upstate economies of Buffalo and Rochester, Middlesex-Somerset-Hunterdon, and the Monmouth- Ocean County area. But at a statewide level, slow growth in service employment will not be sufficient to offset the continuing large job losses in the manufacturing sector, retail trade employment and employment by state and local government.
 Rosen expects that the strong recovery in single-family housing starts, the more moderate gains in resales of existing homes and the heavy flow of dollars into public works such as bridge and tunnel repair and highway rehabilitation are laying the groundwork for modest job growth in 1993. She notes that there are no engines of growth or catalysts for a robust expansion such as occurred in the mid-1980s but adds that the cessation of job losses in construction, retail trade and government in 1993 indicate that major drags on the economy of both states will be overcome in the next 12 months.
 Indeed, construction employment is projected to increase rapidly in the coming year and that growth, coupled with modest job gains in the broad service sector of the economy which reflects rising consumer incomes, will catapult both states' economies solidly into the plus column in 1993. But she cautions that on a statewide basis, these northeastern economies are projected to lag the national recovery by a full year.
 Detailed projections for both states and most metropolitan areas with each state are available.
 The Federal Home Loan Bank of New York provides low-cost financing and other banking services to stockholding institutions in support of affordable housing for Americans in New York, New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
 -0- 4/20/92
 /CONTACT: Rae D. Rosen, vice president of Federal Home Loan Bank, 212-912-4845/ CO: Federal Home Loan Bank of New York ST: New York, New Jersey IN: SU: ECO


TQ-OS -- NY077 -- 0217 04/20/92 16:28 EDT
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Apr 20, 1992
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