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ECONOMY DESTINED FOR CHOPPY WATERS, SAYS INVESTMENTS CHIEF

       ECONOMY DESTINED FOR CHOPPY WATERS, SAYS INVESTMENTS CHIEF
    CHICAGO, Nov. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Given the recent spate of bleak economic data, the economy appears destined to remain in choppy waters during the next few months and the prognosis for the current quarter remains guarded, an investment research leader said today.
    "While we maintain our expectations that a  double-dip' is not the most likely outcome, the risks that another bout of weakening could ensue are, unfortunately, more than trivial," said Wayne C. Stevens, president and chief executive of Duff & Phelps/MCM Investment Research Co., in his firm's latest Investment Overview report.
    More importantly, even if the expansion is sustained, Stevens feels continued fallout from structural reordering under way in many sectors suggests that the recovery is unlikely to show any near-term deviation from the current trajectory of modest and historically subpar growth.
    Based on the loss of momentum, apparent in many economic indicators last quarter and weak readings in two key early fourth quarter gauges, October nonfarm payrolls and the N.A.P.M. index, a weaker fourth quarter GNP comparison appears probable.
    "Currently, we expect real growth in the 1-2 percent range, but any substantial pullback by consumers could result in another down quarter," said Kathryn J. Lunstrum, economic analyst for Duff & Phelps/MCM.  "The susceptibility of the economy to downside risk should clearly keep the Fed on standby for further accommodative action."
    -0-                    11/18/91
    /CONTACT:  Wayne Stevens, 312-630-4560, or Kathryn J. Lunstrum, 312-630-4567, both of Duff & Phelps/ CO:  Duff & Phelps/MCM Investment Research Co. ST:  Illinois IN:  FIN SU:  ECO GK -- NY074 -- 4549 11/18/91 14:47 EST
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Nov 18, 1991
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