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ECONOMIC MOMENTUM FADES AGAIN

 DETROIT, July 15 /PRNewswire/ -- For the third time in less than three years, the Advance Economic Barometer -- a Comerica Bank index that forecasts business activity six months into the future -- has stumbled. By dipping to 1.9 in June, from a level of 2.5 in May, the Barometer is predicting continued anemic economic activity through the end of 1993, both for the U.S. and large industrial states like Michigan.
 Essentially, this bellwether index, which includes key indicators of economic and financial momentum, suggests that the second half of 1993 will be a repeat of the significantly sub-par real GDP performance of the first half of the year.
 In contrast to prior recoveries, where real GDP expansion rates have exceeded 6 to 10 percent by this stage in the cycle, no quarterly growth rates have reached a respectable 5 percent rate.
 June's Advance Economic Barometer deceleration chiefly reflected sharp declines in the moving average of composite leading indicators released each month by the U.S. Commerce Department and a minor degree of financial market constraint.
 The Advance Economic Barometer combines three series into a single, balanced and comprehensive leading indicator: inflation- adjusted money growth, yield curve spread, and the Commerce Department's Index of Leading Indicators.
 -0- 7/15/93
 /CONTACT: David L. Littmann, First Vice President & Senior Economist, Comerica Bank, 313-222-4568/
 (CMA)


CO: Comerica Bank ST: Michigan IN: FIN SU: ECO

SB -- DE029 -- 2131 07/15/93 15:39 EDT
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Jul 15, 1993
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