Printer Friendly



BOOKIES have faced a big problem pricing up today's St Leger and we can take advantage.

Their prices are based on what they perceive to be the chance a horse has of winning, adjusted according to the weight of money.

In such a race they only offer a fifth the odds for a place, which is usually more than adequate to cover themselves for each-way bets.

However, when the favourite is a very short price the maths goes out the window, and having Camelot at less than 1-2 means that all the other runners are odds against to be placed.

Although there are nine runners in today's Classic, Dartford is a no-hoper at 300-1, effectively leaving the other seven to fight for the three places each-way punters will collect on.

If we assume Camelot is going to win then you are left with six to fight out the remaining two places.

That also explains why Camelot's price has been drifting this week - punters have been latching on to the each-way value.

There is also an element of doubt whether the Ballydoyle star is such a good thing as the market suggests.

There is little doubt that Camelot is the best horse in the race - he is 7lb clear on Spotform ratings - but all that is irrelevant if he does not truly stay the mile-and--six-furlong trip.

The way I see it, Camelot's connections are too levelheaded to tilt at windmills, even if the prize is a Triple Crown.

There are many other options open to them so they must think Camelot will stay - and both his breeding and style of racing suggests he will - but there is an element of doubt.

That is why Frankel has been a cash machine for big-hitters for the last couple of seasons and today Camelot is not.

Punters have been backing Frankel to once again do what he has already done, not seriously being asked to run over a trip he is not bred for and basically beating the same or similar rivals.

Camelot is doing something different today - the extra two furlongs will seem like an eternity if he runs out of puff well before the post. It is a brave move by his connections and I, for one, hope that they are rewarded.

So will I back Camelot at the likely price? No, I will back something else eachway and suggest you do too. But will I be cheering him on? Too right I will.

Follow me on Twitter @CForwood
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2012 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Article Details
Printer friendly Cite/link Email Feedback
Title Annotation:Sport
Publication:The Mirror (London, England)
Date:Sep 15, 2012
Previous Article:Camelot ready to claim crown for Ballydoyle.
Next Article:READING v TOTTENHAM Tomorrow 4pm Sky Sp 1; Betting Boys.

Terms of use | Privacy policy | Copyright © 2019 Farlex, Inc. | Feedback | For webmasters