With the end of the Cold War, the global backdrop with which many
conflicts were portrayed has been discarded. Once again, the regional
characteristics of conflicts are assuming paramount importance. In
regard to domestic insurgencies, much of the existing research focuses
on transnational comparative studies. This study takes a different
course, it provides insight into the geographic patterns of an
insurgency at the national and sub-national scales. By studying the
dynamics of insurgent unrest at varying scales, a better model can be
developed in regard to conflict early warning and conflict resolution.
This paper details the results of research focusing on Egypt's
Islamist insurgency of the 1990s. It draws on a spatially-aggregated
database of insurgency-related violent incidents to examine the spatial
patterns of the insurgency at the provincial level for the entire Nile
River system and at the district level for Upper Egypt. Although
religious believes serve as the vehicle for expressing societal
discontent, evidence suggests that a number of socioeconomic variables
contributed to the outbreak of violence.
Chuck Fahrer
Department of Geography
University of South Carolina, Columbia
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