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Demonetization of 2016 in India: Documentation of Short Term Pains and Perspectives on Long Term Gains.

The demonetization of high value currencies which constituted 80 percent of total currencies in circulation, on the mid-night of 8th November 2016 by the government of India, is one of the historic monetary events in the history of monetary economics, at least in India. The economists, intelligentsia, social scientists, politicians and common men were in topsy and turvey regarding the size of its impact on the black money, counterfeit currency, corruption and terrorist funding and finally on the economic growth and development in India. The withdrawal of these high value notes caused a lot of inconvenience to the people, largely the common men belonging to the countryside where the spread of the banking network is frugal. People particularly belonging to the middle and lower middle class and the impoverished were in queue for several weeks to withdraw new currency notes from banking and other delivery system in order to meet their day to day transaction. Besides, as reported in the media, the farmers, small and medium scale businessmen, traders, etc. also faced a lot of inconvenience in making payments to the labourer and workers and also in the purchase of raw materials and other necessary things to carry out their day to day businesses. The day to day business of the winter session of the parliament of India became paralyzed because of the tussle between the ruling party and opposition on demonetization. Although the people standing in the queues largely supported the move of the government, many opposition parties and a few economists and intelligentsia also criticized the demonetization of high value currencies. Amartya Sen has termed demonetization decision by the governments "despotic". To him "it is a gigantic mistake, both in terms of its objective of dealing with corruption as well as the objective of one rapid jump of getting into a cashless economy... this is Modi's Napoleon movement." (1 ) On the other hand, Bhagwati calls it as "courageous". Arun Kumar criticized it by saying "if you take out 85 percent blood from somebody's body and then put five percent into it, what will happen to that person? He will die. Similarly, when you take out 85 percent of liquidity from the economy and slowly replace it by five percent, then the circulation of income goes down." (2) Many opponents of demonetization criticized it as "foolish decision", "mega scam", "economic robbery", "erroneous decision", "demonetization is good for the rich and bad for the poor"; "it is anti-poor", "decision is good but implementation is poor", and many of them have also questioned the introduction of Rs. 2000, so on. Some criticized it as "politically motivated," keeping in mind the upcoming State elections, particularly election in the State of Uttar Pradesh. Subbarao, former Governor of RBI termed it as "creative destruction and the most disruptive policy innovation since 1991 reforms". (3)

However, the government in power, termed the difficulty faced by the common men who were in queue for withdrawing money as "short term pain but for long term gain". The rural areas having poor banking infrastructure faced a lot of inconvenience, as the banking infrastructure in the country was not adequately equipped to deal with such a challenge. Similarly, the challenge of printing of more than 14 lakh cores of new currencies within the short period of fifty days was a herculean task before the government.

Demonetization as a measure of monetary policy is rarely resorted to by the government of both developed as well as developing countries, except in rarest circumstances. This is largely because of the fear of the expected associated problems to be faced by the government, economy and the people at large during the process of re-monetization. For example, the demonetization inflicted by Venezuela in the same year 2016 was withdrawn by their government because of people's resentment and violence associated with the inconvenience people faced to deposit the demonetized currencies and withdraw the new currency from the bank.

In common parlance, demonetization is an act by which the government of a country withdraws the circulation of one or more than one currency unit of its status as a legal tender. The process of demonetization involves either totally withdrawing a currency unit or withdrawing more than one currency unit and introducing new currency units of the same denomination which are being demonetized or completely replacing the old currency with new currency of different denomination, (Pattanaik, 2017). This process of demonetization is largely done keeping in mind the goal of unearthing black money accumulated through corrupt means. Other motives of demonetization are to do away with the counterfeit currencies in circulation and also to uncover the taxable income money which is kept under the pillow in liquid form. As a practice, it is seen that largely high value currencies are demonetized by countries because these currencies are more vulnerable to be used as counterfeit currencies and hoarded in the idle form of black money. John Eatwell Palgrave's Dictionary of Political Economy defines demonetization as the discontinuance by a government of the use of a coin and its official withdrawal from circulation. Thorpe and Thorpe (2010) opined that demonetization refers to the withdrawal of currency from circulation which is done to ambush black market currency and unaccounted money. Not only India, several countries to name a few, USA in 1969; Zaire in 1990; Australia in 1996; Zimbabwe in 2010 and North Korea in 2010 have resorted to demonetization at different points of time. While the effort resulted in success in the developed liberalized economies, it could not produce enough success in the underdeveloped countries. The first demonetization in independent India was done in the year 1946, and the second one in the year 1978 and third, the recent one, was done on the mid-night of 8th November, 2016. The currency of the denomination of rupees 1000 were demonetized in the year 1946; in the year 1976, the currency denomination of Rs. 1000, Rs 5000 and Rs 10000 were demonetized and in the year 2016 the currency of the denomination of Rs.500 and Rs. 1000 were demonetized. In the years 1946 and 1978, the currency notes of higher denomination constituted only three percent, of the total currency in the circulation. Therefore, its effect on the inconvenience for the general public was minimal. As far as the demonetization in the year 1946 is concerned, the Direct Taxes Enquiry Committee in its interim report admitted "demonetization was not successful then, because only a very small proportion of total notes in circulation were demonetized. Notes demonetized in 1946 were of the value of Rs. 143.97 crores as against the total notes issued of the value of Rs. 123593 crores." (5)

One of the key features of demonetization of 2016, which is different from the demonetization done in 1946 and 1978, is that it was kept very secret, so that the black money hoarders could not get any time to convert their black money and counterfeit currency into white money. Further, 52 days were given to the people to deposit their old Rs.500 and Rs. 1000 notes in their bank accounts. Besides, the cash payment in old Rs.500 and Rs. 1000 notes were allowed for selected few utilities, such as filling of fuel, purchase from the departmental store, and booking of air and railway ticket for a few days.

Demonetization and Black Money

Black money is variously known as "black income", "dirty money", "unaccounted income" "counterfeit currency" acquired through corruption, bribe, black market and hording, arm trafficking, terrorism, smuggling, illicit trade in banned substances and money laundering. This unfair income and wealth is being accumulated by a small percentage of people, largely corrupt and criminals, who do not pay tax on this illegal income. In nutshell, black money is "unaccounted money" and the income which has escaped taxation net and may be hoarded in the form of cash and invested in other precious assets like landed property, house, gold, jewelry and other valuable durable assets. Existence of black money is one of the fundamental reasons for the endurance of high economic inequalities, poverty and unemployment in the country. According to NIPFP (2016), black income is the aggregates, of income which is taxable but not reported to the tax authority. The Wanchoo Committee in its report on Black Money -1971, described black money as a "cancerous growth in the country's economy, which if not checked in time, will surely lead to its ruination." The Committee's report envisaged that "black money denotes not only unaccounted currency, which is either hoarded or is in circulation outside disclosed trading channels, but also its investment in gold, jewellery and even in precious stones made secretly and in land and buildings and business assets over and above the amounts shown in the books." The principal causes of tax evasion and the creation of black money and its proliferation are:

(i) high rates of taxation

(ii) economy of shortages and licensing system

(iii) donations to political parties

(iv) corruption

(v) ineffective enforcement of tax laws and

(vi) corruption in business practices (5)

The Black Money, White Paper May 2012 brought out by the joint effort of the Ministry of Finance, Department of Revenue and Central Board of Direct Taxes, New Delhi has envisaged that "manifestation of black money in the social, economic and political space of our lives has a debilitating effect on the institutions of governance and conduct of public policy in the country". (6) The Report therefore has advocated that the success of an inclusive development strategy critically depends on the capacity of our society to root out the evils of corruption and black money from its very foundations. Most economists feel that the size of unreported economy would be nearly 40 percent of the GDP. As the GDP of India is in the neighborhood of 62 lakhs crore, the country's underground and parallel economy would be worth at least Rs 25 lakh crores. (7) Another estimation says that India's "black money" is over Rs30 lakh crores or about 20 percent of total GDP and it is contracting gradually over the years, but still remains bigger than the overall economic size of countries like Thailand and Argentina.India's black economy is roughly estimated to be 50 percent of GDP-generating at current prices in 2012-13, about Rs.50 lakh crore or $1 trillion. (9) CBI has revealed that Indians have $500 billion of illegal funds in foreign tax havens, more than any other country. (10) According to Swiss Banking Association Report 2006, the five countries having deposits in terms of their rank first to fifth are: lndia-$1456 billion; Russia-$470 billion; UK-$390 billion; Ukraine-$100 billion and China-$96 billion. Thus black money is a great threat to India's social, economic, political and cultural development. It is nothing but drains of money like brain drain of human resources from India to foreign countries, and if not checked and recovered, will cost dearly to the economy, both at present also in future. This means that measures have to be taken to unearth the stock and check the flow of black money from the economy to the unscrupulous black money hoarders, both in India and abroad. To date, only 5 percent of Indian workers pay income tax, just 15 percent of the economy is inside the tax net and India's tax to GDP ratio is 17 percent, which is 5 point lower than comparable countries. (11)

Documentation of "Pains" of Demonetization

Demonetization created short term disequilibrium in the supply of new currency and demand for them. As the demonetized currencies were of high value currencies, therefore, the gap between the supply and demand was higher in the short-run. The short-term pain of demonetization was felt by the common men when they were in queue to exchange their hard earned money for new currency. The laborer was pinched hard as he had to be in queue for exchange of old notes. However, it was also reported that many household workers were engaged by the landlords and business communities to exchange their black money kept to avoid income tax and other penalties imposed by the government. The NIPFP, Tax Research Team commented that the demonetization undertaken by the government was large shock to the economy. Some of the impacts of de-monetization as pointed out by the Tax Research Team of NIPFP(2016) were: (i) the sowing season for the Rabi crop and harvesting season of the Kharif crop was affected; (ii) cash being extinguished, to the extent it was being used as medium of exchange, resulted in a compression in incomes, employment and consumption in the economy; (iii) Demand for credit became low and the potential credit will not be realized immediately. A few problems faced aftermath of demonetization are as follows:

(i) Because of slow process of re-monetization, there was cash crunch of new currencies and people both in urban and rural areas had to stand in long queues in front of the banks and ATMs to deposit old currencies and withdraw money. The slow supply of money resulted in decrease in demand for goods and services. As a result the prices of perishable goods, particularly vegetables, decreased, resulting in short term loss to the farmers.

(ii) A lot of man days were wasted because people had to remain in queues by forgoing their work.

(iii) Reduction took place in the business of the small business men, tiny leather and cotton industries, merchants, traders, petty shop keepers, vendors because of cash and liquidity crunch. This reduction in business produced short term effect on their savings and investment. A survey participated by over 30,000 start ups has revealed that a higher percent of start-ups and small and medium-sized enterprises experienced a slowdown in funding and expansion plans.12

(iv) Demonetization imposed a lot of short term pain on the casual migrant labourers, who were thrown out of work by contractors, business men, small scale industrialists, etc. because of lack of liquidity to make payment to these daily wagers, both in urban, semi-urban and rural areas. It was reported that many migrant labourers went back to their native place during demonetization because of lack of liquidity with the contractors to make payments. 13

(v) Inconvenience has caused to the farmers for making payment to the labourer engaged as agricultural labourer in the field and for purchase of agricultural inputs such as manures, pesticides, seeds, etc. Therefore, during the planting season of paddy, it imposed an unexpected pain on the farmers and the agriculture sector. Non-lifting of crops and vegetables from the farmers fields by the purchasers because of cash crunch also affected the farmers' earning. It is also reported that the producers of perishable commodities such as vegetable and poultry were severely impacted. 14

(vi) As it was marriage season, the families performing marriages in both rural and urban areas faced a lot of problems. The postponement and cancellation of marriages and the breaking of marriage have also been reported in the print and electronic media.15

(vii) The accumulation of new currencies by the black marketers, politicians, businessmen, etc. with the help of bank official, adversely affected the success of the scheme.16

(viii) Insufficient banking infrastructure is also one of the important factors for poor implementation of the de-monetization process. The banking infrastructure is particularly poor in rural areas and astoundingly poor in far flung tribal and hilly areas. People belonging to these areas faced a lot of inconvenience during demonetization.

(ix) Nexus between the bank and corrupt businessmen and black money holders, who accumulated a lot of new currency by illegally depositing the old currencies, is a great flaw in our banking system which plays a critical role in economic development of the nation.17This nexus has unfolded the weakness of ourcash economy.

Perspectives on Long term "Gains" of Demonetization

Demonetization was inflicted on the Indian economy with some objectives in mind. The comfortable argument was that the demonetization will help the economy in the long run to have a cleaner growth, formalize the economy and check counterfeit currencies. The demonetization is an economic action and not a concrete monetary measure to wipe out black money. Its imposition would be helpful to promote institutional saving habits and thus can promote economic growth in the long run. It is remarked that although the comprehensive long term impact of these demonetization measures cannot be fully ascertained at this stage, the overall economy is expected to benefit from a decrease in unaccounted cash transactions and an elimination of counterfeit currency notes, leading to more effective tax collection and increased transparency in ascertaining transactions costs (Chatterjee and Benerji, 2016). The perspectives on benefits of demonetization are as follows:

(i) The popularization of cash less economy through digital payment by the government, just after demonetization, in the long run would reduce the quantum of unproductive and lazy money in the economy. However, it is true that payments in cash not only put burden on the government for the printing of currencies, but also is one of the means of endurance of corruption and parallel economy in the developing countries. As compared to developed countries, the use of cash in the transaction process is very high in developing countries. With demonetization, the value of debit card transactions has gone up, the value of mobile banking transactions has gone up and the value of interest banking transactions has gone up. (18) Digital transactions are 300 percent up in numbers and 200 percent up in value. (19)
Table-2: Cash to GDP Ratio in Selected Countries (Percentage)

Country       Percentage

Sweden         1.73
South Africa   2.39
UK             3.72
Brazil         3.82
Canada         4.08
USA            7.9
Singapore      9.55
Russia        10.56
India         10.86

Source: http.//
s-1000 (accessed on 19/12/2016)

(ii) Demonetization is seen to have promoted banking literacy among the general population more particularly among the poor and less educated people, who were out of the net of the banking system. Opening of a new bank account by the poor people for depositing their old notes has institutionalized the saving system among common men who were habituated in saving their money in their almiras, suitcases and under the pillow. It is reported that demonetization is forced banks to open savings accounts at a breakneck speed and it is estimated that by November 30, 2016, about 30 lakh new accounts were opened and their number is on the rise. In the long run, the savings bank deposit will became a habit, at least among the poor living in urban areas and same will go for the rural areas also.

(iii) The deposit of large amount of money in the Jan Dhan Bank account and opening up of new Jan Dhan Accounts clearly shows that common men who were earlier scared of Banks and were lacking banking habits, are being brought to the banking system. A common man spoke to a news channel that "earlier I feared to come to the bank; at least demonetization has removed this fear. We can now open an account, fill the withdrawal form and there is no fear now." Data shows that the Jan Dhan accounts, many of them containing zero balance earlier, rose to Rs. 72,843 crore by November 23rd 2016. (21)

(iv) The rise in savings account deposits, because of demonetization, has strengthened the banking system. Because of several reasons such as loan defaulters, waving of loan of certain categories of beneficiaries, etc, many bank branches, particularly belonging to rural and semi-urban areas had been facing acute problem of NPA(Non-Performing Assets). The capabilities of banks to lend more will be enhanced now which would raise the investment in the economy in the long run. It is reported that "in nutshell, demonetization may have come as a boon for Indian banks. On the one hand, they see a surge in new account openings and on the other hand, they are seeing a surge in deposits. The bigger will be the improvement in their operating margins." (22)

(v) The excess income deposited in the banks would generate taxable income which can be spent on various welfare programmes for the poor in different sectors of the economy. Those who were not paying tax and avoiding the tax payment will come to the tax net. It is reported by the government that "as a result of demonetisation and Operation Clean Money, there is a substantial increase in the number of income tax returns filed. The number of returns filed as on 05.08.2017 stands at 2,82,92,955 as against 2,26,97,843 filed during the corresponding period of FY 2016-2017, registering an increase of 24.7 percent, compared to growth rate of 9.9 per cent in the previous year." (23)

(vi) During the re-monetization process, the supply of money and liquidity flow to the market will be slow. With less cash in hand, the demand will be less as compared to the supply, which will help to control inflation in the economy. Later on, the demand will increase once the remobilization process is completed. However, in the long run, it will be helpful to check the inflation, which was rising due to the excess profiteering habit of the corrupt middle men and black marketeers. Arvind Panagariya opined that through demonetization, as the black money will go out of the system, the money supply will shrink to some degree and this will reduce inflation rate in the absence of any open market interventions by the Reserve Bank of India. (24)

(vii) Money earned through the demonetization process, if spent prudently and honestly for the upliftment of the poor, will be helpful to reduce poverty and inequality in the society. As the challenges before a developing country like India are many i.e. creation of infrastructure for agriculture, industry and service sector, payment of salaries to the employees and other economic growth boosting measures, the scanty resources do not leave much funds for the government to allocate for development and welfare activities. Thus, this type of monetary measure will not only generate fund for welfare activities but also reduce fiscal deficit.

(viii) It is believed that the impact of demonetization will prevail for long and people will prefer to go for digital transactions rather than cash based transactions. If the black money hoarders, who have earned through corruption and unfair means, are exposed and punished, it will pave the way towards a corruption free society. It will help to create a corruption free administrative and political environment in the country.

(ix) Earning through the unearthing of black money and also through raid on corrupt businessmen, politicians and bureaucrats, will reduce the fiscal deficit. As NITI Aayog Vice-Chairperson, Arvind Panagariya expects, that demonetization will bring significant tax gains and help the economy bounce back strongly in the years ahead. (25)

(x) The flow of FDI to the economy will be enhanced, as foreign investment requires a corruption free environment. Corruption and redtpism are some of the important reasons due to which foreign investors and also NRIs are not encouraged to invest in India. If the country provides a corruption free environment, then certainly the Indian market has great potential to attract foreign investment in the long run.

(xi) This step will not only check the generation of black money, but will also be helpful to control the outflow of illicit money to other developed country's foreign bank accounts. The raid on the black money holders will unearth and control "money laundering" and "hawala" transactions also. It is reported that demonetization has struck at the roots of hawala trade with business coming to a grinding halt and only 3 to 5 percent of the trade is functioning now.


(xii) Demonization has inflicted a big blow to the terrorists and naxalites funding. The terrorists, Naxalites and Maoists were largely using counterfeit high value currencies for purchase of arms and ammunitions for conducting their nefarious activities. They were also using these counterfeit high value currencies for the conduction of terrorist camps, training and terrorists attacks. (27)

(xii) Demonization will help the nation to achieve a real and cleaner economic growth rate without much support of black money. To Arun Kumar, India's black economy is roughly estimated to be 50% of GDP-generating at current prices in 2013, i.e. about Rs. 50 lakh crore or$1 trillion. (28)

(xiv) Last but not the least; demonetization will be helpful to reduce the size of informal economy in the country. To Arun Jaitley, demonetization may impact growth "for a quarter or so" but this disruption will not last too long and the move, along with GST, will help create a larger and cleaner economy. (29)


Demonetization had its impact not only on the economic front but also short term deep inconvenience it inflicted on the common man has installed an imprint on the minds at least among the common men of India about banking, money and monetary affairs of the country. The common men get knowledge about the banking system, including the function of the printing of currency by the Reserve Bank of India. Despite the short term pain, people standing in the queue to draw their own money from the commercial banks did not resist it, with a hope that it is better for the future economic growth and development of the country.

The Crisil Report says that "the demonetization move could change the face of the Indian economy". (30) According to Mauro F Guillen" the move could stifle some business that are legal and clean, if they use cash payment. But everyone will adjust. And while it can hurt some small business and individuals, it is better to do it than not". (31) According to IMF "we support the measures to fight corruption and illicit financial flows in India." (32) India is a great democracy where the people at large, despite inconvenience, support the demonetization inflicted by the government for unearthing black money and corruption. The demonetization process could have been better planned and properly implemented, so that all the inconveniences caused to the businessmen, small industries, farmers, common men at large and the economy might have been avoided. It is too early to judge the impact of demonetization on the economy. Certainly in the short run, it had a few visible multi-dimensional impact of both pains and gains. People standing in the queues leading to loss of man days, daily wagers lost their employment because of lack of liquidity with the employer, business and small and medium scale industries suffered- these are a few important short run pains. The short term gains are upshot in bank deposits and financial literacy among the common men, reduction in rate of inflation, reduction in terrorists and extremist activities, and check on black money and counterfeit currency. The long run benefits are yet to be expected. However, it is true that it is not the sole solution to economic ills. Attack on illegal property and corruption at all levels along with good governance will ensure clean economic growth rate of the economy.


(1.) Amrtya Sen said this in an interview with Karan Thapar, for detail see (accessed on 13/01/2017).

(2.) Arun Kumar in his writing "Demonetization is a foolish step...The poor will suffer the most" for detail see (accessed on 13/01/2017).

(3.) D Subbarao told it in the context of demonetization inflicted on the Indian economy on 8th November, 2016, for detail see on 11/01/2017).

(4.) Mentioned in the Wanchoo Committee report and also used following website on 17/01/2017).

(5.) For detail also refer (accessed on 17/01/2017).

(6.) It is quoted in "study on unaccounted income/wealth both inside and outside the country", National Institute of Financial Management, Draft Report; also see on 17/01/2017).

(7.) For detail see on 17/01/2017).

(8.) Said by Arun Kumar in h is article "India's black economy: Causes, implications and remedies", for detail see (14/12/2016).

(9.) Ramesh Thakur "Economic and political risks of India's demonetization" see

(10.) For detail see on 19/01/2017).

(11.) Ramesh Thakur "Economic and political risks of India's demonetization" see

(12.) For detail of the survey see on 19/01/2017).

(13.) Demonetization forced many migrant labourers nearly 15000 to 20000 who came from different parts i.e. Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bangladesh, etc. to work in various project of Nagpur city to leave the city because most of them unable to arrange for two square meals. For detail see (accessed on 30/12/2016).

(14.) For detail report see on 19/01/2017).

(15.) The effect of demonetization on marriages see on 19/01/2017).

(16.) Four banks helped a bullion trader to legalize Rs.150 crore demonetized currency in Mumbai. The cash was deposited into accounts of several shell companies (entities that exist only in paper) immediately after demonetization and then transferred into the traders's account through RTGS(Real-time gross settlement system). For detail see on 24/12/2016).

(17.) Kishroe Bhajiwala used dummy bank accounts to launder black money. He had used around 700 persons for depositing and withdrawing money after demonetization. Out of 27 bank accounts 20 are benami (fake) accounts. He held property worth of Rs.400 crores and on raid Income Tax Department recovered unaccounted money of worth Rs. 10.45 crores. For detail see on 24/12/2016).

(18.) India Resists has commented that: They change the goal post all the time. First it was about black money. Then it was about preventing counterfeiting of notes. Then they told that the drive had silenced the terrorists in Kashmir. Now it is about being cashless. For detail see on 10/1/2017).

(19.) This was said by Chanda Kochhar, M D & CEO, ICICI Bank for detail see on 10/1/2017).

(20.) For detail see on 19/01/2017).

(21.) For detail see on 19/01/2017)

(22.) For detail see on 19/01/2017).

(23.) For detail see on 9/08/2017).

(24.) For detail see on 20/01/2017).

(25.) For detail see on 20/01/2017).

(26.) It is reported in India Today for detail see on 25/12/2016).

(27.) For finding some of the observations and information see on 20/01/2017).

(28.) Quoted from Arun Kumar's writing "Demonetization is a foolish step...The poor will suffer the most" for detail see on 13/01/2017).

(29.) For detail see on 20/01/2017).

(30.) For detail see on 20/1/2017).

(31.) For detail see

(32.) For detail see on 20/1/2017).


Chatterjee B and Benerji A (2016): "The impact of demonetization in India" for detail see on 20/1/2017).

NIPFP(2016): "Demonetization: Impact on the economy", NIPFP Working Paper Series, No. 182, Tax Research Team, 14, November, 2016 and see on 24/12/2016).

Thrope E and Thorpe S (2010): The Person General Knowledge Manual 2010, Dorling Kindersley (India), New Delhi.

Tanzi V and Schuknechut L (1997): "Reconsidering the fiscal role of government: The international perspective", American Economic Review, 87, pp 164-168.

Ramesh Thakur "Economic and political risks of India's demonetization" see

Pattanaik BK (2017): "Demonetization, cashless economy and development," Yojana, Vol 61, Feb 2017, pp52-57
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Author:Pattanaik, B.K.
Publication:Political Economy Journal of India
Geographic Code:9INDI
Date:Jan 1, 2019
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