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Coup d'tat: IraqAEs most fragile option: Look to the governmentunot the oppositionuto stage a coup.

Byline: Aza Hasib

During the past week, top Iraqi authorities have revealed possibility of a military revolution in the country; they have not offered any details.

Iraq has witnessed several coups d'tat since Rasheed AaliAEs coup and Saddam HusseinAEs revolution against President Ahmed Hassan Al-Bakir. The history of authority in Iraq is one full of revolutions. No former Iraqi government had been formed through ballots or peacefully. Thus, coups d'tat are influential columns of the political culture; and therefore, the possibility of revolution appears whenever a gap occurs between authority, the people, and political parties. As for now, a gap is quite clear between Nouri al-MalikiAEs government and the other Iraqi political parties.

However, the possibility of a military coup d'tat right now is very weak for the following reasons:

- For a successful military coup d'tat in Iraq, it requires an army to be complete in numbers and weapons. The current army is complete in neither.

- It also requires strong coordination among the important units, including the air forces and armored divisions. These two units do not even exist.

- Those who initiate the coup must reach BaghdadAEs Green Zone, topple the government, and seize Parliament. This would hardly be a success.

- Those who initiate the coup must reach the entire country; this is another difficult task due to the current circumstances in Iraq.

- As far as the American and multinational forces here, they wonAEt allow, in front of their eyes, the government and Parliament to be seized, the Constitution to be ignored, or all of their achievements since Saddam to be ruined.

Thus, what is mentioned must indicate a political coup, not a military one. It can be a revolution against the Constitution or against the political agreement on which the current Iraqi political process is based.

This type of political coup has occurred several times and always failed. A number of political blocs have announced a boycott of the government and Parliament. These were the types of revolutions aiming at breaking down those two institutions.

Hindering the decision on the oil and gas bill, not implementing Article 140, and delaying the vote on the provincial council elections law are all attempts to change the Constitution and affect the new IraqAEs main principles of democracy, federalism, and so on. All of these attempts at revolution occurred in the past few years.

Attempts to disable the entire political process still exist, even if they don't always succeed.

Amidst these fears, al-MalikiAEs governing bloc consists of those who opt for coups d'tat, especially after they have already concurred with the old Baathists and officers of the former army. Al-MalikiAEs current attitudes and the movement of the military units under his command reflect his inner will for a coup, especially as he feels more isolated now than at any time because he is losing allies and the Americans are not satisfied with him due to his closeness with Iran. When this dissatisfaction mounts, al-Maliki will announce a coup.

More clearly, Iraq faces a possibility for a coup d'tat at the hands of the government, not by the opposition.

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Publication:The Kurdish Globe (Erbil, Iraq)
Date:Oct 14, 2008
Words:529
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