Consumers considerably less confident.
February ResultsThe Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved last month, weakened significantly in February. The Index now stands at 87.3 (1985=100), down from 96.4 in January. The Expectations Index fell to 96.8 from 107.8. The Present Situation Index decreased to 73.1 from 79.4.
The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO WorldGroup. NFO is one of TNS group of companies (LSE: TNN). The cutoff date for February's preliminary results was the 17th.
Consumers' assessment of current conditions was less positive in February than last month. The percentage of respondents claiming business conditions improved declined to 19.3 percent from 21.9 percent. Those claiming conditions have worsened rose to 25.1 percent from 22.9 percent. The percent of consumers claiming jobs are hard to get edged up to 32.1 percent from 31.6 percent. Those saying jobs are plentiful edged down to 11.8 percent from 12.3 percent.
Consumers' short-term outlook weakened significantly. Respondents expecting business conditions to improve dropped to 21.8 percent from 27.6 percent. Consumers expecting conditions to worsen over the next six months rose to 8.7 percent from 6.7 percent. The employment outlook was also less favorable. Respondents anticipating more jobs to become available fell to 18.7 percent from 22.0 percent. Those expecting fewer jobs to become available increased to 18.1 percent from 15.0 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes declined to 16.7 percent from 19.2 percent.
Consumers began the year on a high-note, but their optimism has quickly given way to caution. Consumers remain disheartened with current economic conditions, and at the core of their disenchantment is the labor market. While the current expansion has generated jobs over the past several months, the pace of creation remains too tepid to generate a sustainable turnaround in consumers' confidence. And, with consumers anticipating economic conditions to remain about the same in the months ahead, their short-term outlook turned less optimistic.
Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans Based on surveys conducted by NFO Research, Inc. Percentage of households = 100% Business Employment Income 2003 All series seasonally adjusted Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100 Consumer Confidence Index 64.8 61.4 81.0 83.6 83.5 Present Situation 63.5 61.4 75.2 67.3 64.2 Expectations 65.7 61.4 84.8 94.5 96.4 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent Business Conditions Good 13.6 13.6 16.2 16.1 14.9 Bad 29.6 30.0 23.9 28.4 28.1 Normal 56.8 56.4 59.9 55.5 57.0 Employment Jobs plentiful 11.4 11.4 13.0 12.3 11.2 Jobs not so plentiful 58.6 56.3 57.6 54.8 56.9 Jobs hard to get 30.0 32.3 29.4 32.9 31.9 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent Business Conditions Better 14.9 13.0 18.9 22.8 23.5 Worse 19.1 20.0 12.3 9.6 9.2 Same 66.0 67.0 68.8 67.6 67.3 Employment More jobs 12.4 10.8 16.4 17.9 18.9 Fewer jobs 28.5 26.5 20.9 17.8 16.9 Same 59.1 62.7 62.7 64.3 64.2 Income Increase 16.0 15.8 17.2 17.1 17.1 Decrease 12.2 13.4 10.7 9.7 10.4 Same 71.8 70.8 72.1 73.2 72.5 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent Automobile Yes 6.9 6.6 6.0 7.7 5.9 New 2.8 3.0 2.8 3.7 2.7 Used 3.0 2.8 2.1 2.5 2.3 Uncertain 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.9 Home Yes 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.8 3.0 New 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.9 Lived in 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.5 Uncertain 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.6 Major appliances Total plans 27.5 28.2 29.7 31.6 27.8 Refrigerator 4.1 5.3 4.7 5.9 3.8 Washing machine 3.9 3.0 3.7 3.9 3.3 TV Set 6.1 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.2 Vacuum Cleaner 5.3 5.1 4.9 5.1 4.4 Range 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.8 3.4 Clothes dryer 3.5 3.2 4.1 3.6 3.7 Air conditioner 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.0 Carpet 5.0 6.1 5.6 5.5 4.9 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent Vacation Intended 42.7 42.4 41.8 Destination U.S. 35.5 37.0 36.2 Foreign country 8.7 7.1 7.2 Means of Travel Automobile 23.8 24.7 24.9 Airplane 17.5 17.3 16.8 Other 3.6 3.3 3.2 2003 All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct. Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100 Consumer Confidence Index 77.0 81.7 77.0 81.7 Present Situation 63.0 62.0 59.7 67.0 Expectations 86.3 94.9 88.5 91.5 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent Business Conditions Good 16.5 15.9 16.2 17.1 Bad 30.2 31.0 29.5 28.1 Normal 53.3 53.1 54.3 54.8 Employment Jobs plentiful 10.7 11.3 9.9 11.8 Jobs not so plentiful 56.6 54.6 55.0 54.5 Jobs hard to get 32.7 34.1 35.1 33.7 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent Business Conditions Better 20.0 22.6 21.3 23.5 Worse 11.4 10.6 11.9 11.0 Same 68.6 66.8 66.8 65.5 Employment More jobs 16.6 18.0 16.6 19.6 Fewer jobs 19.6 18.6 21.1 20.4 Same 63.8 63.4 62.3 60.0 Income Increase 15.9 20.7 19.0 16.9 Decrease 11.3 9.5 9.7 10.8 Same 72.8 69.8 71.3 72.3 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent Automobile Yes 8.7 6.6 5.4 6.6 New 3.4 2.7 2.1 3.0 Used 4.0 3.2 2.2 2.7 Uncertain 1.3 0.7 1.1 0.9 Home Yes 3.5 4.1 3.1 3.2 New 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 Lived in 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 Uncertain 0.9 1.3 0.7 1.0 Major appliances Total plans 29.3 32.5 26.6 26.7 Refrigerator 4.0 4.9 5.0 4.4 Washing machine 4.1 4.7 3.1 3.2 TV Set 6.8 7.4 6.3 7.0 Vacuum Cleaner 5.5 5.6 5.0 4.6 Range 3.1 3.5 2.5 3.1 Clothes dryer 3.3 3.8 2.8 3.0 Air conditioner 2.5 2.6 1.9 1.4 Carpet 6.3 5.6 4.8 5.0 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent Vacation Intended 43.4 46.3 Destination U.S. 36.3 38.3 Foreign country 8.6 8.9 Means of Travel Automobile 23.9 25.8 Airplane 17.0 17.3 Other 4.2 4.0 2003 2004 Feb. All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan.(r) (p) Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100 Consumer Confidence Index 92.5 91.7 96.4 87.3 Present Situation 81.0 74.3 79.4 73.1 Expectations 100.1 103.3 107.8 96.8 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent Business Conditions Good 19.9 18.6 21.9 19.3 Bad 23.6 24.5 22.9 25.1 Normal 56.5 56.9 55.2 55.6 Employment Jobs plentiful 13.5 12.6 12.3 11.8 Jobs not so plentiful 56.9 55.0 56.1 56.1 Jobs hard to get 29.6 32.4 31.6 32.1 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent Business Conditions Better 24.5 26.7 27.6 21.8 Worse 7.2 8.1 6.7 8.7 Same 68.3 65.2 65.7 69.5 Employment More jobs 18.5 21.6 22.0 18.7 Fewer jobs 18.0 16.9 15.0 18.1 Same 63.5 61.5 63.0 63.2 Income Increase 20.2 21.5 19.2 16.7 Decrease 9.6 10.2 8.7 8.3 Same 70.2 68.3 72.1 75.0 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent Automobile Yes 5.8 6.4 6.4 6.2 New 2.2 2.8 2.4 2.4 Used 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Uncertain 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.9 Home Yes 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 New 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 Lived in 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 Uncertain 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 Major appliances Total plans 29.0 28.9 28.4 25.7 Refrigerator 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.2 Washing machine 3.7 3.0 3.7 3.4 TV Set 7.2 7.0 6.3 6.6 Vacuum Cleaner 4.7 5.1 5.2 4.6 Range 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.4 Clothes dryer 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.0 Air conditioner 2.0 3.0 2.8 2.5 Carpet 5.3 5.3 4.8 4.5 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent Vacation Intended 48.2 56.6 Destination U.S. 40.0 49.3 Foreign country 9.3 9.0 Means of Travel Automobile 28.0 36.6 Airplane 17.0 18.0 Other 3.9 4.5 Inflation Interest Rates Stock Prices 2003 Not Seasonally Adjusted Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent Inflation Rate Average 4.8 5.0 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 Interest Rates Higher 41.7 39.9 45.4 44.5 42.1 39.9 57.7 Same 38.4 38.0 35.9 40.8 39.0 40.6 30.2 Lower 19.9 22.1 18.7 18.7 18.9 19.5 12.1 Stock Prices Increase 25.2 22.9 35.1 36.1 43.2 39.3 39.7 Same 32.6 30.5 32.7 38.7 34.8 35.6 36.8 Decrease 42.2 46.6 32.2 25.2 22.0 25.1 23.5 2004 Not Seasonally Adjusted Sept. 0ct. Nov. Dec. Jan.(r) Feb.(p) Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent Inflation Rate Average 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 Interest Rates Higher 60.0 54.5 55.2 56.0 54.0 52.9 Same 28.9 34.3 35.3 33.9 37.2 36.7 Lower 11.1 11.2 9.5 10.1 8.8 10.4 Stock Prices Increase 42.1 42.2 44.8 44.7 47.2 44.0 Same 36.7 37.5 37.9 36.7 36.5 38.0 Decrease 21.2 20.3 17.3 18.6 16.3 18.0 2003 All series seasonally adjusted Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Age of Household Head Under 35 78.5 68.6 89.7 90.5 95.3 35-54 65.1 62.0 80.3 85.6 83.3 55 and over 57.2 55.9 75.6 75.8 77.3 Household Income Under $15,000 45.4 41.9 61.2 69.4 59.9 $15,000-24,999 57.7 52.5 68.0 68.0 62.9 $25,000-34,999 66.1 55.8 81.8 85.0 83.5 $35,000-49,999 60.9 65.0 78.2 82.3 85.2 $50,000 and over 74.7 71.5 91.3 92.7 96.3 2003 All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct. Age of Household Head Under 35 90.4 88.8 84.8 88.8 35-54 77.2 83.8 76.1 84.6 55 and over 69.8 74.5 73.6 74.6 Household Income Under $15,000 52.0 52.7 51.8 61.7 $15,000-24,999 59.0 69.0 59.4 60.9 $25,000-34,999 72.4 75.5 76.2 76.3 $35,000-49,999 76.1 77.2 74.9 87.7 $50,000 and over 92.0 98.0 92.2 93.1 2003 2004 All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan.(r) Feb.(p) Age of Household Head Under 35 98.7 98.6 110.1 101.5 35-54 92.0 89.2 90.1 83.5 55 and over 88.7 90.2 96.1 83.3 Household Income Under $15,000 67.3 62.2 68.2 62.5 $15,000-24,999 68.6 71.8 84.1 62.7 $25,000-34,999 82.0 87.0 91.7 84.8 $35,000-49,999 96.4 90.0 94.1 82.1 $50,000 and over 108.1 107.3 110.6 106.1 3 mos. Percent All series seasonally adjusted Change * Age of Household Head Under 35 13.9 35-54 4.0 55 and over 13.7 Household Income Under $15,000 6.7 $15,000-24,999 15.7 $25,000-34,999 12.4 $35,000-49,999 2.8 $50,000 and over 10.4 (p) - preliminary (r) - revised A monthly report from The Consumer Research Center Copyright [c] 2004 by The Conference Board, Inc. All rights reserved. ISSN 1046-1876 The Conference Board, 845 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10022-6679 / 212 759 0900 The Conference Board Europe, Chaussee de La HulPe 130, Box 11, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium 32 2 675 54 05 The Conference Board of Canada, 255 Smyth Road, Ottawa, Ontario, K1H-8M7, Canada 613 526 3280 The Conference Board and the torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board, Inc. * Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with preceding three months. Age and Income data have been adjusted for seasonal variations. Consumer Confidence by Region Seasonally unadjusted 2003 Index numbers: U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May New England Consumer Confidence Index 74.4 62.8 57.6 66.4 85.1 Present Situation 63.9 44.5 38.0 52.0 71.4 Expectations 81.5 75.1 70.8 76.0 94.3 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 65.4 57.3 54.7 68.4 69.2 Present Situation 53.8 43.2 52.5 58.2 50.3 Expectations 73.1 66.8 56.2 75.2 81.8 East North Central Consumer Confidence Index 79.3 58.2 58.5 73.4 69.4 Present Situation 67.5 46.5 52.2 60.9 49.9 Expectations 87.2 66.0 62.7 81.8 82.4 West North Central Consumer Confidence Index 77.5 65.2 60.2 63.6 84.5 Present Situation 76.1 60.9 56.2 59.2 79.1 Expectations 78.4 68.0 63.0 66.6 88.2 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 87.2 78.9 70.8 93.4 88.1 Present Situation 88.2 81.6 74.1 96.7 81.1 Expectations 86.6 77.1 68.6 91.2 92.7 East South Central Consumer Confidence Index 76.2 60.7 59.7 79.4 83.5 Present Situation 70.3 56.5 56.0 79.7 66.5 Expectations 80.1 63.4 62.2 79.3 94.9 West South Central Consumer Confidence Index 94.3 75.1 62.3 92.7 100.1 Present Situation 89.4 68.7 53.3 91.8 92.1 Expectations 97.6 79.4 68.3 93.3 105.4 Mountain Consumer Confidence Index 97.6 68.8 59.9 94.9 86.7 Present Situation 94.8 62.5 49.2 80.3 67.3 Expectations 99.5 73.1 67.1 104.6 99.6 Pacific Consumer Confidence Index 69.7 63.3 63.0 75.9 79.4 Present Situation 54.6 51.3 57.9 57.5 48.3 Expectations 79.8 71.2 66.4 88.1 100.1 Seasonally unadjusted 2003 Index numbers: U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. New England Consumer Confidence Index 72.7 56.8 69.9 73.4 75.5 Present Situation 46.5 42.8 51.6 55.5 57.4 Expectations 90.2 66.2 82.2 85.3 87.6 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 70.6 69.9 76.0 65.3 69.4 Present Situation 51.5 58.0 59.6 45.3 57.6 Expectations 83.3 77.9 86.9 78.6 77.3 East North Central Consumer Confidence Index 71.8 71.1 68.4 70.9 74.9 Present Situation 46.3 56.3 46.6 54.1 67.5 Expectations 88.8 80.9 82.9 82.2 79.8 West North Central Consumer Confidence Index 78.4 89.6 68.0 74.1 80.7 Present Situation 62.2 78.5 46.0 64.4 67.4 Expectations 89.2 97.0 82.7 80.6 89.6 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 100.2 86.0 88.8 84.8 98.9 Present Situation 97.8 80.8 77.2 80.4 93.2 Expectations 101.9 89.6 96.6 87.7 102.7 East South Central Consumer Confidence Index 79.4 67.4 84.5 67.4 95.5 Present Situation 70.0 60.2 72.4 57.8 94.7 Expectations 85.7 72.2 92.6 73.8 96.0 West South Central Consumer Confidence Index 90.7 77.3 82.0 90.6 86.7 Present Situation 75.1 63.8 60.5 77.9 68.8 Expectations 101.1 86.3 96.4 99.1 98.6 Mountain Consumer Confidence Index 93.9 73.9 87.8 96.6 104.9 Present Situation 70.3 61.1 69.2 77.4 96.6 Expectations 109.7 82.4 100.2 109.3 110.4 Pacific Consumer Confidence Index 74.3 70.9 85.5 77.7 86.1 Present Situation 50.8 52.7 63.8 56.9 62.5 Expectations 89.9 83.1 100.0 91.5 101.9 Seasonally unadjusted 2003 2004 Index numbers: U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Nov. Dec. Jan(r) Feb(p) New England Consumer Confidence Index 104.2 92.5 98.2 83.3 Present Situation 103.3 72.7 86.5 49.7 Expectations 104.8 105.7 106.1 105.7 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 80.5 78.1 83.6 73.1 Present Situation 70.3 60.9 62.5 65.8 Expectations 87.3 89.6 97.7 78.0 East North Central Consumer Confidence Index 90.4 90.0 83.6 72.5 Present Situation 74.7 62.7 61.1 52.8 Expectations 100.8 108.2 98.6 85.7 West North Central Consumer Confidence Index 88.1 94.5 96.4 92.2 Present Situation 71.3 78.9 85.0 74.8 Expectations 99.3 104.9 104.0 103.8 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 103.9 106.1 109.6 104.7 Present Situation 105.3 107.3 106.6 103.8 Expectations 103.0 105.4 111.6 105.3 East South Central Consumer Confidence Index 98.7 84.5 102.2 92.5 Present Situation 104.7 69.8 94.8 82.3 Expectations 94.7 94.3 107.2 99.3 West South Central Consumer Confidence Index 97.0 99.7 108.0 92.4 Present Situation 83.1 82.4 92.5 77.7 Expectations 106.2 111.3 118.3 102.2 Mountain Consumer Confidence Index 102.8 105.1 119.0 103.4 Present Situation 95.0 92.0 102.6 94.3 Expectations 108.1 113.9 130.0 109.5 Pacific Consumer Confidence Index 92.4 90.6 96.9 94.1 Present Situation 71.8 70.9 75.1 81.6 Expectations 106.1 103.8 111.5 102.4 3-MONTH AVG. Seasonally unadjusted Dec.,Jan.,Feb. Index numbers: Percent U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 2003 2004 Change New England Consumer Confidence Index 66.5 91.3 37.4 Present Situation 58.1 69.6 19.8 Expectations 72.1 105.8 46.8 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 64.3 78.3 21.8 Present Situation 51.9 63.0 21.5 Expectations 72.5 88.4 21.9 East North Central Consumer Confidence Index 71.5 82.0 14.8 Present Situation 57.8 58.8 1.8 Expectations 80.6 97.5 21.0 West North Central Consumer Confidence Index 71.0 94.4 32.8 Present Situation 70.7 79.5 12.5 Expectations 71.2 104.2 46.3 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 85.7 106.8 24.5 Present Situation 87.0 105.9 21.7 Expectations 84.9 107.4 26.5 East South Central Consumer Confidence Index 72.0 93.1 29.2 Present Situation 70.5 82.3 16.8 Expectations 73.1 100.3 37.3 West South Central Consumer Confidence Index 85.5 100.0 17.1 Present Situation 79.1 84.2 6.4 Expectations 89.7 110.6 23.3 Mountain Consumer Confidence Index 84.9 109.2 28.7 Present Situation 79.5 96.3 21.1 Expectations 88.4 117.8 33.2 Pacific Consumer Confidence Index 69.5 93.9 35.1 Present Situation 54.0 75.8 40.4 Expectations 79.8 105.9 32.6 * Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with the same period a year ago. Regional data are not adjusted for seasonal variation.
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| Author: | Franco, Lynn |
|---|---|
| Publication: | Consumer Confidence Survey |
| Geographic Code: | 1USA |
| Date: | Mar 1, 2004 |
| Words: | 3770 |
| Previous Article: | December results. |
| Next Article: | Consumers confidence flat in March. |
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