Printer Friendly

Consumers confidence flat in March.

March Results

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined sharply last month, remained flat in March. The Index now stands at 88.3 (1985=100), down from 88.5 in February. The Present Situation Index rose to 84.1 from 83.3. The Expectations Index, however, declined to 91.0 from 91.9.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS NFO. TNS NFO is one of the TNS group of companies (LSE: TNN). The cutoff date for March's preliminary results was the 23rd.

Consumers' assessment of current conditions was slightly more favorable in March than last month. The percentage of respondents claiming business conditions improved increased to 20.7 percent from 19.3 percent. Those claiming conditions have worsened was almost unchanged at 23.3 percent. The percent of consumers claiming jobs are hard to get rose to 30.0 percent from 28.9 percent. Those saying jobs are plentiful, however, edged up to 14.7 percent from 14.5 percent.

Consumers' short-term optimism continued to wane. Respondents expecting business conditions to improve slipped to 19.3 percent from 19.5 percent. Consumers expecting conditions to worsen over the next six months remained the same at 9.6 percent. The employment outlook was somewhat mixed. Respondents anticipating more jobs to become available declined to 15.7 percent from 16.4 percent. Those expecting fewer jobs, however, also declined to 17.3 percent from 18.8 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating a decrease in their incomes rose to 10.1 percent from 8.4 percent.

While consumers claimed business conditions were more favorable in March than last month, they also claimed jobs were less readily available. The labor market not only continues to dampen consumers' present-day spirits, but it is also making them less optimistic about the short-term outlook.
Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans
Based on surveys conducted by NFO Research, Inc.
Percentage of households = 100%

 2003

All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June

Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100

Consumer Confidence Index 61.4 81.0 83.6 83.5
 Present Situation 61.4 75.2 67.3 64.2
 Expectations 61.4 84.8 94.5 96.4

Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 13.6 16.2 16.1 14.9
 Bad 30.0 23.9 28.4 28.1
 Normal 56.4 59.9 55.5 57.0

Employment
 Jobs plentiful 11.4 13.0 12.3 11.2
 Jobs not so plentiful 56.3 57.6 54.8 56.9
 Jobs hard to get 32.3 29.4 32.9 31.9

Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 13.0 18.9 22.8 23.5
 Worse 20.0 12.3 9.6 9.2
 Same 67.0 68.8 67.6 67.3

Employment
 More jobs 10.8 16.4 17.9 18.9
 Fewerjobs 26.5 20.9 17.8 16.9
 Same 62.7 62.7 64.3 64.2

Income
 Increase 15.8 17.2 17.1 17.1
 Decrease 13.4 10.7 9.7 10.4
 Same 70.8 72.1 73.2 72.5

Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 6.6 6.0 7.7 5.9
 New 3.0 2.8 3.7 2.7
 Used 2.8 2.1 2.5 2.3
 Uncertain 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.9

Home
 Yes 3.2 3.4 3.8 3.0
 New 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.9
 Lived in 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.5
 Uncertain 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.6

Major appliances
 Total plans 28.2 29.7 31.6 27.8
 Refrigerator 5.3 4.7 5.9 3.8
 Washing machine 3.0 3.7 3.9 3.3
 TV Set 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.2
 Vacuum Cleaner 5.1 4.9 5.1 4.4
 Range 3.1 3.1 3.8 3.4
 Clothes dryer 3.2 4.1 3.6 3.7
 Air conditioner 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.0
Carpet 6.1 5.6 5.5 4.9

Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended 42.4 41.8

Destination
 U.S. 37.0 36.2
 Foreign country 7.1 7.2

Means of Travel
 Automobile 24.7 24.9
 Airplane 17.3 16.8
 Other 3.3 3.2

 2003

All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept.

Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100

Consumer Confidence Index 77.0 81.7 77.0
 Present Situation 63.0 62.0 59.7
 Expectations 86.3 94.9 88.5

Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 16.5 15.9 16.2
 Bad 30.2 31.0 29.5
 Normal 53.3 53.1 54.3

Employment
 Jobs plentiful 10.7 11.3 9.9
 Jobs not so plentiful 56.6 54.6 55.0
 Jobs hard to get 32.7 34.1 35.1

Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 20.0 22.6 21.3
 Worse 11.4 10.6 11.9
 Same 68.6 66.8 66.8

Employment
 More jobs 16.6 18.0 16.6
 Fewerjobs 19.6 18.6 21.1
 Same 63.8 63.4 62.3

Income
 Increase 15.9 20.7 19.0
 Decrease 11.3 9.5 9.7
 Same 72.8 69.8 71.3

Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 8.7 6.6 5.4
 New 3.4 2.7 2.1
 Used 4.0 3.2 2.2
 Uncertain 1.3 0.7 1.1

Home
 Yes 3.5 4.1 3.1
 New 0.9 1.3 1.2
 Lived in 1.7 1.5 1.2
 Uncertain 0.9 1.3 0.7

Major appliances
 Total plans 29.3 32.5 26.6
 Refrigerator 4.0 4.9 5.0
 Washing machine 4.1 4.7 3.1
 TV Set 6.8 7.4 6.3
 Vacuum Cleaner 5.5 5.6 5.0
 Range 3.1 3.5 2.5
 Clothes dryer 3.3 3.8 2.8
 Air conditioner 2.5 2.6 1.9
Carpet 6.3 5.6 4.8

Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended 43.4

Destination
 U.S. 36.3
 Foreign country 8.6

Means of Travel
 Automobile 23.9
 Airplane 17.0
 Other 4.2

 Business Employment

 2003 2004

All series seasonally adjusted Oct. Nov. Dec Jan
 (r) (r)
Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100

Consumer Confidence Index 81.7 92.5 94.8 97.7
 Present Situation 67.0 81.0 76.0 86.1
 Expectations 91.5 100.1 107.4 105.3

Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 17.1 19.9 18.1 21.8
 Bad 28.1 23.6 23.7 23.1
 Normal 54.8 56.5 58.2 55.1

Employment
 Jobs plentiful 11.8 13.5 13.0 14.9
 Jobs not so plentiful 54.5 56.9 55.6 55.4
 Jobs hard to get 33.7 29.6 31.4 29.7

Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 23.5 24.5 28.0 27.0
 Worse 11.0 7.2 6.8 6.9
 Same 65.5 68.3 65.2 66.1

Employment
 More jobs 19.6 18.5 21.2 20.0
 Fewerjobs 20.4 18.0 15.1 15.2
 Same 60.0 63.5 63.7 64.8

Income
 Increase 16.9 20.2 21.7 18.2
 Decrease 10.8 9.6 9.6 8.6
 Same 72.3 70.2 68.7 73.2

Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 6.6 5.8 6.2 6.7
 New 3.0 2.2 2.8 2.5
 Used 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.1
 Uncertain 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.1

Home
 Yes 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.5
 New 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.0
 Lived in 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.6
 Uncertain 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.9

Major appliances
 Total plans 26.7 29.0 27.5 28.3
 Refrigerator 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.9
 Washing machine 3.2 3.7 3.1 3.7
 TV Set 7.0 7.2 7.0 6.5
 Vacuum Cleaner 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9
 Range 3.1 3.6 3.1 3.0
 Clothes dryer 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.3
 Air conditioner 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.0
Carpet 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.8

Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended 46.3 45.9

Destination
 U.S. 38.3 38.0
 Foreign country 8.9 8.7

Means of Travel
 Automobile 25.8 25.8
 Airplane 17.3 16.7
 Other 4.0 3.9

 Income

 2004

All series seasonally adjusted Feb Mar
 (r) (p)
Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100

Consumer Confidence Index 88.5 88.3
 Present Situation 83.3 84.1
 Expectations 91.9 91.0

Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 19.3 20.7
 Bad 23.2 23.3
 Normal 57.5 56.0

Employment
 Jobs plentiful 14.5 14.7
 Jobs not so plentiful 56.6 55.3
 Jobs hard to get 28.9 30.0

Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 19.5 19.3
 Worse 9.6 9.6
 Same 70.9 71.1

Employment
 More jobs 16.4 15.7
 Fewerjobs 18.8 17.3
 Same 64.8 67.0

Income
 Increase 17.1 17.7
 Decrease 8.4 10.1
 Same 74.5 72.2

Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 7.2 5.1
 New 2.9 2.2
 Used 3.2 2.3
 Uncertain 1.1 0.6

Home
 Yes 3.8 4.0
 New 1.3 1.1
 Lived in 1.4 1.7
 Uncertain 1.1 1.2

Major appliances
 Total plans 27.5 27.8
 Refrigerator 3.9 4.2
 Washing machine 3.7 3.4
 TV Set 7.4 6.5
 Vacuum Cleaner 4.8 5.1
 Range 2.6 3.3
 Clothes dryer 3.2 3.5
 Air conditioner 1.9 1.8
Carpet 4.7 5.2

Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended 43.0

Destination
 U.S. 36.6
 Foreign country 8.0

Means of Travel
 Automobile 23.7
 Airplane 17.6
 Other 3.6

(p)-preliminary (r)-revised

December 2003 and January 2004 have been revised because of a
programming error in calculating the adjustment seasonal factors.

Inflation Interest Rates Stock Prices

Not Seasonally 2003
Adjusted Mar. Apr. May June July Aug.

Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent

Inflation Rate
 Average 5.0 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3

Interest Rates
 Higher 39.9 45.4 44.5 42.1 39.9 57.7
 Same 38.0 35.9 40.8 39.0 40.6 30.2
 Lower 22.1 18.7 14.7 18.9 19.5 12.1

Stock Prices
 Increase 22.9 35.1 36.1 43.2 39.3 39.7
 Same 30.5 32.7 38.7 34.8 35.6 36.8

Not Seasonally 2003
Adjusted Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent

Inflation Rate
 Average 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3

Interest Rates
 Higher 60.0 54.5 55.2 56.0
 Same 28.9 34.3 35.3 33.9
 Lower 11.1 11.2 9.5 10.1

Stock Prices
 Increase 42.1 42.2 44.8 44.7
 Same 36.7 37.5 37.9 36.7

Not Seasonally 2004
Adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar.
 (r) (p)

Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent

Inflation Rate
 Average 4.3 4.3 4.6

Interest Rates
 Higher 54.0 53.4 55.3
 Same 37.2 36.5 34.7
 Lower 8.8 10.1 10.0

Stock Prices
 Increase 47.2 43.3 39.2
 Same 36.5 38.6 40.0

 2003
All series seasonally
adjusted Mar. Apr. May June July

Age of Household Head
 Under 35 68.6 89.7 90.5 95.3 90.4
 35-54 62.0 80.3 85.6 83.3 77.2
 55 and over 55.9 75.6 75.8 77.3 69.8

Household Income
 Under $15,000 41.9 61.2 69.4 59.9 52.0
 $15,000-24,999 52.5 68.0 68.0 62.9 59.0
 $25,000-34,999 55.8 81.8 85.0 83.5 72.4
 $35,000-49,999 65.0 78.2 82.3 85.2 76.1
 $50,000 and over 71.5 91.3 92.7 96.3 92.0

 2003
All series seasonally
adjusted Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
 (r)
Age of Household Head
 Under 35 88.8 84.8 88.8 98.7 101.9
 35-54 83.8 76.1 84.6 92.0 92.2
 55 and over 74.5 73.6 74.6 88.7 93.3

Household Income
 Under $15,000 52.7 51.8 61.7 67.3 64.3
 $15,000-24,999 69.0 59.4 60.9 68.6 74.2
 $25,000-34,999 75.5 76.2 76.3 82.0 89.9
 $35,000-49,999 77.2 74.9 87.7 96.4 93.0
 $50,000 and over 98.0 92.2 93.1 108.1 110.9

 3 mos.
 2004 Percent
All series seasonally Change *
adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar.
 (r) (r) (p)

Age of Household Head
 Under 35 111.5 101.7 101.3 8.7
 35-54 91.2 85.5 88.3 -1.4
 55 and over 97.3 83.6 81.1 2.1

Household Income
 Under $15,000 69.1 63.5 60.6 0.0
 $15,000-24,999 85.2 65.8 68.5 7.7
 $25,000-34,999 92.9 82.8 85.3 5.2
 $35,000-49,999 95.2 84.3 79.8 -6.4
 $50,000 and over 112.0 107.1 106.8 4.4

* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
preceding three months.

Age and Income data have been adjusted for seasonal variations.
December 2003 and January 2004 have been revised because of a
programming error in calculating the adjustment seasonal factors.

Consumer Confidence by Region

Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2003
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June

New England
 Consumer Confidence Index 62.8 57.6 66.4 85.1 72.7
 Present Situation 44.5 38.0 52.0 71.4 46.5
 Expectations 75.1 70.8 76.0 94.3 90.2

Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 57.3 54.7 68.4 69.2 70.6
 Present Situation 43.2 52.5 58.2 50.3 51.5
 Expectations 66.8 56.2 75.2 81.8 83.3

East North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 58.2 58.5 73.4 69.4 71.8
 Present Situation 46.5 52.2 60.9 49.9 46.3
 Expectations 66.0 62.7 81.8 82.4 88.8

West North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 65.2 60.2 63.6 84.5 78.4
 Present Situation 60.9 56.2 59.2 79.1 62.2
 Expectations 68.0 63.0 66.6 88.2 89.2

South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 78.9 70.8 93.4 88.1 100.2
 Present Situation 81.6 74.1 96.7 81.1 97.8
 Expectations 77.1 68.6 91.2 92.7 101.9

East South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 60.7 59.7 79.4 83.5 79.4
 Present Situation 56.5 56.0 79.7 66.5 70.0
 Expectations 63.4 62.2 79.3 94.9 85.7

West South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 75.1 62.3 92.7 100.1 90.7
 Present Situation 68.7 53.3 91.8 92.1 75.1
 Expectations 79.4 68.3 93.3 105.4 101.1

Mountain
 Consumer Confidence Index 68.8 59.9 94.9 86.7 93.9
 Present Situation 62.5 49.2 80.3 67.3 70.3
 Expectations 73.1 67.1 104.6 99.6 109.7

Pacific
 Consumer Confidence Index 63.3 63.0 75.9 79.4 74.3
 Present Situation 51.3 57.9 57.5 48.3 50.8
 Expectations 71.2 66.4 88.1 100.1 89.9

Seasonally unadjusted 2003
Index numbers:
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.

New England
 Consumer Confidence Index 56.8 69.9 73.4 75.5 104.2
 Present Situation 42.8 51.6 55.5 57.4 103.3
 Expectations 66.2 82.2 85.3 87.6 104.8

Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 69.9 76.0 65.3 69.4 80.5
 Present Situation 58.0 59.6 45.3 57.6 70.3
 Expectations 77.9 86.9 78.6 77.3 87.3

East North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 71.1 68.4 70.9 74.9 90.4
 Present Situation 56.3 46.6 54.1 67.5 74.7
 Expectations 80.9 82.9 82.2 79.8 100.8

West North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 89.6 68.0 74.1 80.7 88.1
 Present Situation 78.5 46.0 64.4 67.4 71.3
 Expectations 97.0 82.7 80.6 89.6 99.3

South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 86.0 88.8 84.8 98.9 103.9
 Present Situation 80.8 77.2 80.4 93.2 105.3
 Expectations 89.6 96.6 87.7 102.7 103.0

East South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 67.4 84.5 67.4 95.5 98.7
 Present Situation 60.2 72.4 57.8 94.7 104.7
 Expectations 72.2 92.6 73.8 96.0 94.7

West South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 77.3 82.0 90.6 86.7 97.0
 Present Situation 63.8 60.5 77.9 68.8 83.1
 Expectations 86.3 96.4 99.1 98.6 106.2

Mountain
 Consumer Confidence Index 73.9 87.8 96.6 104.9 102.8
 Present Situation 61.1 69.2 77.4 96.6 95.0
 Expectations 82.4 100.2 109.3 110.4 108.1

Pacific
 Consumer Confidence Index 70.9 85.5 77.7 86.1 92.4
 Present Situation 52.7 63.8 56.9 62.5 71.8
 Expectations 83.1 100.0 91.5 101.9 106.1

Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2004
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Dec. Jan. Feb Mar
 (r) (p)

New England
 Consumer Confidence Index 92.5 98.2 81.3 86.6
 Present Situation 72.7 86.5 48.8 73.7
 Expectations 105.7 106.1 103.0 95.2

Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 78.1 83.6 72.6 68.9
 Present Situation 60.9 62.5 65.8 54.9
 Expectations 89.6 97.7 77.2 78.2

East North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 90.0 83.6 71.4 73.1
 Present Situation 62.7 61.1 51.9 53.8
 Expectations 108.2 98.6 84.4 86.0

West North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 94.5 96.4 93.3 91.9
 Present Situation 78.9 85.0 77.2 87.8
 Expectations 104.9 104.0 104.0 94.7

South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 106.1 109.6 105.7 105.7
 Present Situation 107.3 106.6 106.2 113.3
 Expectations 105.4 111.6 105.3 100.7

East South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 84.5 102.2 91.5 80.4
 Present Situation 69.8 94.8 79.0 70.0
 Expectations 94.3 107.2 99.9 87.4

West South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 99.7 108.0 95.5 96.3
 Present Situation 82.4 92.5 83.4 82.3
 Expectations 111.3 118.3 103.6 105.7

Mountain
 Consumer Confidence Index 105.1 119.0 104.3 95.7
 Present Situation 92.0 102.6 93.2 89.1
 Expectations 113.9 130.0 111.7 100.2

Pacific
 Consumer Confidence Index 90.6 96.9 94.1 93.4
 Present Situation 70.9 75.1 80.6 78.3
 Expectations 103.8 111.5 103.1 103.5

Seasonally unadjusted 3-MONTH AVG.
Index numbers: Jan.,Feb.,Mar. Percent
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 2003 2004 Change

New England 65.0 88.7 36.5
 Consumer Confidence Index 48.8 69.7 42.9
 Present Situation 75.8 101.4 33.8
 Expectations

Middle Atlantic 59.1 75.0 26.8
 Consumer Confidence Index 49.8 61.0 22.5
 Present Situation 65.4 84.4 29.0
 Expectations

East North Central 65.3 76.0 16.4
 Consumer Confidence Index 55.4 55.6 0.4
 Present Situation 72.0 89.7 24.6
 Expectations

West North Central 67.6 93.9 38.8
 Consumer Confidence Index 64.4 83.3 29.4
 Present Situation 69.8 100.9 44.6
 Expectations

South Atlantic 78.9 107.0 35.5
 Consumer Confidence Index 81.3 108.7 33.7
 Present Situation 77.4 105.9 36.8
 Expectations

East South Central 65.5 91.4 39.5
 Consumer Confidence Index 60.9 81.2 33.3
 Present Situation 68.6 98.2 43.1
 Expectations

West South Central 77.2 99.9 29.4
 Consumer Confidence Index 70.4 86.0 22.1
 Present Situation 81.7 109.2 33.6
 Expectations

Mountain 75.5 106.3 40.9
 Consumer Confidence Index 68.8 94.9 38.0
 Present Situation 79.9 113.9 42.6
 Expectations

Pacific 65.3 94.8 45.2
 Consumer Confidence Index 54.6 78.0 42.9
 Present Situation 72.5 106.0 46.3
 Expectations

* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
the same period a year ago. Regional data are not adjusted for seasonal
variation.
COPYRIGHT 2004 Conference Board, Inc.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2004, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

Article Details
Printer friendly Cite/link Email Feedback
Author:Franco, Lynn
Publication:Consumer Confidence Survey
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Apr 1, 2004
Words:3748
Previous Article:Consumers considerably less confident.
Next Article:Consumers confidence improves in April.
Topics:


Related Articles
May Results.
Consumer Confidence softens.
Consumer Confidence springs back.
Consumer Confidence declines.
Consumer Confidence Surges.
Consumer confidence slips further.
Consumer confidence survey.
Consumers confidence improves in April.
Consumer Confidence Survey[TM]: confidence dips, but consumers still confident.
Consumer confidence by region.

Terms of use | Privacy policy | Copyright © 2021 Farlex, Inc. | Feedback | For webmasters