Consumer confidence survey.
Consumer ConfidenceApril Results
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had been on the decline for the past four months, improved sharply in April. The Index now stands at 81.0 (1985=100), up from 61.4 in March. The Expectations Index rose to 84.8 from 61.4. The Present Situation Index improved to 75.3 from 61.4.
The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO WorldGroup, a member of The Interpublic Group of Companies (NYSE: IPG).
Consumers' assessment of current conditions was less negative than in March. Respondents rating present business conditions as "bad" declined to 23.7 percent from 30.0 percent, while those holding the opposite view rose to 16.2 percent from 13.6 percent. Labor market conditions also improved. Consumers reporting jobs are hard to get eased to 29.5 percent from 32.3 percent, while those claiming jobs are plentiful edged up to 13.0 percent from 11.4 percent.
Consumers' short-term expectations improved considerably. Respondents anticipating a rebound in business conditions over the next several months rose to 18.7 percent from 13.0 percent. Consumers anticipating conditions to worsen dropped to 12.3 percent from 20.0 percent. The employment outlook was also more optimistic. Respondents anticipating more jobs to become available increased to 16.7 percent from 10.8 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs fell to 20.9 percent from 26.5 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their income rose to 17.1 percent, from 15.8 percent.
The swift and successful war in the Middle East has helped quell consumers' short-term concerns. While an increase of this magnitude occurred after the Persian Gull War in 1991, this post-war surge differs in that both components of the Index posted gains. Therefore, the increase in the Present Situation Index, especially in labor market conditions, may very well signal a turn-around in confidence and a more favorable outlook for consumer spending.
Lynn Franco
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Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans Based on surveys conducted by NFO Research, Inc. Percentage of households = 100% 2002 All series seasonally adjusted Apr. May June Composite Series: Ne Index Numbers, 1985=100 Consumer Confidence Index 108.5 110.3 106.3 Present Situation 106.8 111.2 104.9 Expectations 109.6 109.7 107.2 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent Business Conditions Good 19.7 21.2 19.9 Bad 19.4 18.5 19.5 Normal 60.9 60.3 60.6 Employment Jobs plentiful 20.9 21.2 20.1 Jobs not so plentiful 56.4 57.0 56.7 jobs hard to get 22.7 21.8 23.2 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent Business Conditions Better 26.0 24.9 23.7 Worse 6.4 6.8 7.1 Same 67.6 68.3 69.2 Employment More jobs 22.2 21.2 20.4 Fewer jobs 14.8 13.6 14.3 Same 63.0 65.2 65.3 Income Increase 21.1 21.1 20.9 Decrease 8.1 7.8 8.0 Same 70.8 71.1 71.1 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent Automobile Yes 7.8 7.9 7.8 New 4.3 3.8 3.9 Used 2.5 2.7 3.0 Uncertain 1.0 1.4 0.9 Home Yes 3.9 3.6 3.4 New 1.4 1.1 0.8 Lived in 1.8 1.5 1.5 Uncertain 0.7 1.0 1.1 Major appliances Total plans 31.3 27.6 29.6 Refrigerator 5.2 4.7 4.4 Washing Machine 4.0 3.3 3.8 TV Set 7.2 6.6 7.7 Vacuum Cleaner 5.6 4.7 4.8 Range 3.2 3.1 3.1 Clothes dryer 3.6 3.0 3.8 Air conditioner 2.5 2.2 2.0 Carpet 6.4 5.7 5.8 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent Vacation Intended Destination 44.7 44.5 U.S. 38.7 38.7 Foreign country 7.8 7.3 Means of Travel Automobile 25.6 24.9 Airplane 18.3 19.6 Other 3.7 3.4 2002 All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Composite Series: Ne Index Numbers, 1985=100 Consumer Confidence Index 97.4 94.5 93.7 Present Situation 99.4 93.1 88.5 Expectations 96.1 95.5 97.2 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent Business Conditions Good 20.2 16.7 18.5 Bad 22.1 21.8 23.8 Normal 57.7 61.5 57.7 Employment Jobs plentiful 18.8 17.4 15.9 Jobs not so plentiful 57.3 58.8 58.7 jobs hard to get 23.9 23.8 25.4 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent Business Conditions Better 20.8 22.2 21.6 Worse 9.2 10.0 9.7 Same 70.0 67.8 68.7 Employment More jobs 17.3 17.4 17.3 Fewer jobs 17.0 17.8 16.8 Same 65.7 64.8 65.9 Income Increase 20.1 22.1 21.5 Decrease 9.6 10.1 8.9 Same 70.3 67.8 69.6 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent Automobile Yes 8.3 7.4 7.2 New 3.3 4.1 2.7 Used 3.8 2.3 3.0 Uncertain 1.2 1.0 1.5 Home Yes 3.8 4.5 3.3 New 0.9 1.7 0.9 Lived in 1.9 1.9 1.4 Uncertain 1.0 0.9 1.0 Major appliances Total plans 28.0 31.3 26.2 Refrigerator 3.7 4.8 4.2 Washing Machine 3.4 3.7 3.5 TV Set 7.4 7.3 6.6 Vacuum Cleaner 4.3 5.8 3.8 Range 3.3 3.3 2.7 Clothes dryer 3.0 3.4 2.9 Air conditioner 2.9 3.0 2.5 Carpet 5.5 5.2 5.7 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent Vacation Intended Destination 42.2 U.S. 35.2 Foreign country 9.2 Means of Travel Automobile 22.4 Airplane 17.7 Other 4.0 Business 2002 All series seasonally adjusted Oct. Nov. Dec. Composite Series: Ne Index Numbers, 1985=100 Consumer Confidence Index 79.6 84.9 80.7 Present Situation 77.2 78.3 69.6 Expectations 81.1 89.3 88.1 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent Business Conditions Good 15.6 16.1 14.5 Bad 27.7 25.7 25.9 Normal 56.7 58.2 59.6 Employment Jobs plentiful 14.7 14.2 12.3 Jobs not so plentiful 58.0 58.5 58.0 jobs hard to get 27.3 27.3 29.7 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent Business Conditions Better 19.3 20.3 21.1 Worse 14.3 11.3 11.0 Same 66.4 68.4 67.9 Employment More jobs 15.3 15.4 15.4 Fewer jobs 22.1 18.8 20.2 Same 62.6 65.8 64.4 Income Increase 17.9 19.4 19.6 Decrease 11.3 9.9 10.7 Same 70.8 70.7 69.7 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent Automobile Yes 6.9 6.8 7.7 New 3.1 2.8 3.3 Used 2.8 2.4 3.4 Uncertain 1.0 1.6 1.0 Home Yes 3.1 3.1 3.2 New 0.8 0.8 1.0 Lived in 1.4 1.5 1.4 Uncertain 0.9 0.8 0.8 Major appliances Total plans 28.3 28.6 28.4 Refrigerator 4.4 3.9 4.5 Washing Machine 4.0 3.4 3.5 TV Set 7.5 6.7 7.5 Vacuum Cleaner 4.3 5.4 4.8 Range 2.9 3.0 3.0 Clothes dryer 3.2 3.4 3.4 Air conditioner 2.0 2.8 1.7 Carpet 5.3 5.2 5.2 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent Vacation Intended Destination 47.3 43.3 U.S. 40.1 34.7 Foreign country 8.0 9.1 Means of Travel Automobile 26.1 23.7 Airplane 17.8 16.0 Other 3.4 4.3 Employment Income 2003 All series seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar.(r) Composite Series: Ne Index Numbers, 1985=100 Consumer Confidence Index 78.8 64.8 61.4 Present Situation 75.3 63.5 61.4 Expectations 81.1 65.7 61.4 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent Business Conditions Good 15.0 13.6 13.6 Bad 26.7 29.6 30.0 Normal 58.3 56.8 56.4 Employment Jobs plentiful 14.5 11.4 11.4 Jobs not so plentiful 56.6 58.6 56.3 jobs hard to get 28.9 30.0 32.3 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent Business Conditions Better 17.7 14.9 13.0 Worse 14.0 19.1 20.0 Same 68.3 66.0 67.0 Employment More jobs 14.2 12.4 10.8 Fewer jobs 21.2 28.5 26.5 Same 64.6 59.1 62.7 Income Increase 18.4 16.0 15.8 Decrease 10.2 12.2 13.4 Same 71.4 71.8 70.8 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent Automobile Yes 6.8 6.9 6.6 New 3.0 2.8 3.0 Used 3.0 3.0 2.8 Uncertain 0.8 1.1 0.8 Home Yes 3.6 3.8 3.2 New 1.2 1.0 0.9 Lived in 1.7 1.7 1.3 Uncertain 0.7 1.1 1.0 Major appliances Total plans 28.2 27.5 28.2 Refrigerator 5.8 4.1 5.3 Washing Machine 3.4 3.9 3.0 TV Set 6.3 6.1 6.7 Vacuum Cleaner 4.3 5.3 5.1 Range 3.3 2.7 3.1 Clothes dryer 3.1 3.5 3.2 Air conditioner 2.0 1.9 1.8 Carpet 5.6 5.0 6.1 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent Vacation Intended Destination 42.7 U.S. 35.5 Foreign country 8.7 Means of Travel Automobile 23.8 Airplane 17.5 Other 3.6 Income 2003 All series seasonally adjusted Apr.(p) Composite Series: Ne Index Numbers, 1985=100 Consumer Confidence Index 81.0 Present Situation 75.3 Expectations 84.8 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent Business Conditions Good 16.2 Bad 23.7 Normal 60.1 Employment Jobs plentiful 13.0 Jobs not so plentiful 57.5 jobs hard to get 29.5 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent Business Conditions Better 18.7 Worse 12.3 Same 69.0 Employment More jobs 16.7 Fewer jobs 20.9 Same 62.4 Income Increase 17.1 Decrease 10.8 Same 72.1 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent Automobile Yes 5.9 New 2.8 Used 1.9 Uncertain 1.2 Home Yes 3.3 New 1.3 Lived in 1.4 Uncertain 0.6 Major appliances Total plans 28.5 Refrigerator 4.5 Washing Machine 3.6 TV Set 6.9 Vacuum Cleaner 4.7 Range 2.9 Clothes dryer 3.8 Air conditioner 2.1 Carpet 5.6 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent Vacation Intended Destination 42.2 U.S. 36.8 Foreign country 7.2 Means of Travel Automobile 24.5 Airplane 17.3 Other 3.3 (p) - preliminary (r) - revised Inflation Interest Rates Stock Prices Not Seasonally 2002 Adjusted Apr. May June July Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent Inflation Rate Average 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 Interest Rates Higher 62.1 54.6 51.4 45.3 Same 28.0 34.6 35.6 39.3 Lower 9.9 10.8 13.0 15.4 Stock Prices Increase 42.6 37.1 32.4 26.5 Same 37.0 40.3 38.6 35.4 Decrease 20.4 22.6 29.0 38.1 Not Seasonally 2002 Adjusted Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent Inflation Rate Average 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.1 Interest Rates Higher 43.8 43.1 41.8 42.1 Same 36.5 39.4 38.9 35.8 Lower 19.7 17.5 19.3 22.1 Stock Prices Increase 33.9 32.9 29.1 34.4 Same 30.0 34.8 31.3 35.3 Decrease 36.1 32.3 39.6 30.3 Not Seasonally 2002 2003 Adjusted Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.(r) Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent Inflation Rate Average 4.4 4.4 4.8 5.0 Interest Rates Higher 43.5 43.7 41.7 39.9 Same 38.9 39.9 38.4 38.0 Lower 17.6 16.4 19.9 22.1 Stock Prices Increase 33.3 31.3 25.2 22.9 Same 34.9 34.6 32.6 30.5 Decrease 31.8 34.1 42.2 46.6 Not Seasonally 2003 Adjusted Apr.(p) Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent Inflation Rate Average 4.5 Interest Rates Higher 45.0 Same 36.1 Lower 18.9 Stock Prices Increase 35.0 Same 32.4 Decrease 32.6 (p) - preliminary (r) - revised 2002 All series seasonally adjusted Apr. May June Consumer Confidence Index, 1985=100 Age ot Household Head Under 35 112.5 112.9 116.6 35-54 106.9 110.5 104.6 55 and over 105.9 106.6 101.9 Household Income Under $15,000 72.1 74.8 77.3 $15,000-24,999 99.2 89.6 95.7 $25,000-34,999 106.7 108.1 102.7 $35,000-49,999 108.1 111.2 105.7 $50,000 and over 122.2 127.8 118.4 2002 All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Consumer Confidence Index, 1985=100 Age ot Household Head Under 35 108.8 100.8 106.2 35-54 98.0 97.7 93.2 55 and over 90.1 86.6 86.6 Household Income Under $15,000 71.8 64.6 69.0 $15,000-24,999 77.3 70.0 68.1 $25,000-34,999 85.6 94.8 93.9 $35,000-49,999 106.9 101.6 94.5 $50,000 and over 111.3 110.1 108.7 2002 All series seasonally adjusted Oct. Nov. Dec. Consumer Confidence Index, 1985=100 Age ot Household Head Under 35 92.5 90.5 98.3 35-54 78.1 85.2 80.1 55 and over 75.0 80.8 73.9 Household Income Under $15,000 62.6 65.1 58.7 $15,000-24,999 69.0 72.3 62.1 $25,000-34,999 73.1 77.9 79.6 $35,000-49,999 81.4 87.3 85.2 $50,000 and over 89.8 96.1 93.2 2003 All series seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar.(r) Consumer Confidence Index, 1985=100 Age ot Household Head Under 35 89.5 78.5 68.6 35-54 81.3 65.1 62.0 55 and over 70.7 57.2 55.9 Household Income Under $15,000 57.9 45.4 41.9 $15,000-24,999 60.8 57.7 52.5 $25,000-34,999 68.2 66.1 55.8 $35,000-49,999 83.4 60.9 65.0 $50,000 and over 92.0 74.7 71.5 3 mos. 2003 Percent All series seasonally adjusted Apr.(p) Change * Consumer Confidence Index, 1985=100 Age ot Household Head Under 35 91.5 -14.3 35-54 79.6 -16.1 55 and over 75.6 -16.3 Household Income Under $15,000 60.3 -18.7 $15,000-24,999 68.7 -8.4 $25,000-34,999 84.2 -8.7 $35,000-49,999 77.1 -20.7 $50,000 and over 91.4 -15.5 (p) - preliminary (r) - revised Consumer Confidence by Region Seasonally unadjusted Index numbers: 2002 U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Mar. Apr. May June New England Consumer Confidence Index 101.9 106.7 107.3 104.8 Present Situation 95.6 115.5 119.2 110.7 Expectations 106.1 100.8 99.4 100.9 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 95.1 92.3 95.9 84.2 Present Situation 85.9 83.1 90.2 80.0 Expectations 101.3 98.4 99.7 86.9 East North Central Consumer Confidence Index 104.1 102.8 107.4 97.5 Present Situation 95.8 91.3 108.5 95.3 Expectations 109.7 110.5 106.6 98.9 West North Central Consumer Confidence Index 104.9 103.0 95.6 101.5 Present Situation 102.4 104.4 109.4 119.9 Expectations 106.5 102.1 86.4 89.2 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 120.8 117.2 115.3 119.7 Present Situation 120.8 120.9 121.6 130.0 Expectations 120.8 114.7 111.0 112.9 East South Central Consumer Confidence Index 108.8 95.4 95.1 103.7 Present Situation 102.6 91.0 92.7 97.6 Expectations 113.0 98.4 96.6 107.8 West South Central Consumer Confidence Index 118.4 122.9 108.6 109.8 Present Situation 119.9 125.1 112.6 109.8 Expectations 117.4 121.5 105.9 109.9 Mountain Consumer Confidence Index 118.2 114.5 124.5 113.0 Present Situation 123.5 102.9 124.2 116.6 Expectations 114.7 122.2 124.7 110.6 Pacific Consumer Confidence Index 114.4 105.0 113.5 105.4 Present Situation 103.3 95.7 102.5 91.7 Expectations 121.9 111.2 120.9 114.5 Seasonally unadjusted Index numbers: 2002 U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 July Aug. Sept. Oct. New England Consumer Confidence Index 92.4 90.5 89.2 74.2 Present Situation 96.3 113.7 94.3 70.8 Expectations 89.9 75.1 85.8 76.5 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 84.8 80.9 90.2 68.2 Present Situation 83.4 73.5 84.8 66.7 Expectations 85.7 85.8 93.8 69.2 East North Central Consumer Confidence Index 86.5 86.7 89.9 83.3 Present Situation 84.6 79.0 88.0 85.6 Expectations 87.8 91.9 91.1 81.8 West North Central Consumer Confidence Index 93.2 85.3 95.2 85.3 Present Situation 100.7 86.2 110.7 98.1 Expectations 88.2 84.7 85.0 76.8 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 110.2 101.1 101.3 90.4 Present Situation 122.2 110.1 100.5 101.1 Expectations 102.2 95.1 101.9 83.3 East South Central Consumer Confidence Index 86.5 90.4 99.9 90.3 Present Situation 90.3 88.1 99.4 95.3 Expectations 84.0 92.0 100.2 87.0 West South Central Consumer Confidence Index 102.2 100.2 95.9 83.7 Present Situation 112.1 103.2 90.4 81.7 Expectations 95.6 98.2 99.6 85.0 Mountain Consumer Confidence Index 95.7 93.5 102.2 85.7 Present Situation 97.0 88.8 102.8 72.5 Expectations 94.8 96.6 101.8 94.5 Pacific Consumer Confidence Index 93.8 94.5 91.3 88.5 Present Situation 91.0 89.3 83.1 80.0 Expectations 95.7 97.9 96.9 94.2 Seasonally unadjusted Index numbers: 2002 2003 U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. New England Consumer Confidence Index 82.5 62.2 74.4 62.8 Present Situation 79.9 66.0 63.9 44.5 Expectations 84.3 59.6 81.5 75.1 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 74.9 70.1 65.4 57.3 Present Situation 67.1 58.7 53.8 43.2 Expectations 80.2 77.7 73.1 66.8 East North Central Consumer Confidence Index 88.0 76.9 79.3 58.2 Present Situation 84.5 59.6 67.5 46.5 Expectations 90.3 88.5 87.2 66.0 West North Central Consumer Confidence Index 85.8 70.5 77.5 65.2 Present Situation 93.3 75.2 76.1 60.9 Expectations 80.8 67.3 78.4 68.0 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 97.6 91.1 87.2 78.9 Present Situation 98.1 91.2 88.2 81.6 Expectations 97.2 91.1 86.6 77.1 East South Central Consumer Confidence Index 83.1 79.2 76.2 60.7 Present Situation 77.2 84.6 70.3 56.5 Expectations 87.0 75.6 80.1 63.4 West South Central Consumer Confidence Index 91.4 87.0 94.3 75.1 Present Situation 91.5 79.3 89.4 68.7 Expectations 91.4 92.1 97.6 79.4 Mountain Consumer Confidence Index 94.2 88.1 97.6 68.8 Present Situation 89.7 81.3 94.8 62.5 Expectations 97.2 92.6 99.5 73.1 Pacific Consumer Confidence Index 82.1 75.5 69.7 63.3 Present Situation 63.9 56.2 54.6 51.3 Expectations 94.2 88.5 79.8 71.2 Seasonally unadjusted 3-MONTH AVG. Index numbers: 2003 Feb.,Mar.,Apr. U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Mar.(r) Apr.(p) 2002 2003 New England Consumer Confidence Index 57.6 67.2 102.3 62.6 Present Situation 38.0 53.1 100.2 45.2 Expectations 70.8 76.7 103.6 74.2 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 54.7 68.5 89.7 60.2 Present Situation 52.5 57.9 80.0 51.2 Expectations 56.2 75.6 96.1 66.2 East North Central Consumer Confidence Index 58.5 73.0 96.9 63.2 Present Situation 52.2 61.6 87.0 53.4 Expectations 62.7 80.7 103.6 69.8 West North Central Consumer Confidence Index 60.2 65.9 102.5 63.8 Present Situation 56.2 61.2 104.6 59.4 Expectations 63.0 69.1 101.1 66.7 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index 70.8 93.7 112.9 81.1 Present Situation 74.1 95.8 112.7 83.8 Expectations 68.6 92.2 113.1 79.3 East South Central Consumer Confidence Index 59.7 80.0 100.4 66.8 Present Situation 56.0 79.0 98.9 63.8 Expectations 62.2 80.7 101.4 68.8 West South Central Consumer Confidence Index 62.3 94.3 114.0 77.2 Present Situation 53.3 93.1 115.6 71.7 Expectations 68.3 95.1 113.0 80.9 Mountain Consumer Confidence Index 59.9 95.4 113.1 74.7 Present Situation 49.2 81.1 106.5 64.3 Expectations 67.1 104.9 117.5 81.7 Pacific Consumer Confidence Index 63.0 74.7 108.3 67.0 Present Situation 57.9 57.4 97.8 55.5 Expectations 66.4 86.3 115.3 74.6 Seasonally unadjusted Index numbers: Percent U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Change New England Consumer Confidence Index -38.8 Present Situation -54.9 Expectations -28.4 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index -32.9 Present Situation -36.1 Expectations -31.1 East North Central Consumer Confidence Index -34.8 Present Situation -38.6 Expectations -32.6 West North Central Consumer Confidence Index -37.8 Present Situation -43.2 Expectations -34.0 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence Index -28.2 Present Situation -25.6 Expectations -29.9 East South Central Consumer Confidence Index -33.5 Present Situation -35.5 Expectations -32.2 West South Central Consumer Confidence Index -32.3 Present Situation -38.0 Expectations -28.4 Mountain Consumer Confidence Index -33.9 Present Situation -39.6 Expectations -30.5 Pacific Consumer Confidence Index -38.1 Present Situation -43.3 Expectations -35.3 * Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with the same period a year ago. Regional data are not adjusted for seasonal variation. Consumer Confidence +19.6 81.0 Present Situation +13.9 75.3 Expectations +23.4 84.8
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| Publication: | Consumer Confidence Survey |
|---|---|
| Geographic Code: | 1USA |
| Date: | May 1, 2003 |
| Words: | 4100 |
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