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Consumer confidence improves moderately, but present situation weakens further.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index[TM], which had declined to an all-time low in October, improved moderately in November. The Index now stands at 44.9 (1985=100), up from 38.8 in October. The Present Situation Index decreased to 42.2 from 43.5 last month. The Expectations Index increased to 46.7 from 35.7 in October.

The Consumer Confidence SurveyTM is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research company. The cutoff date for November's preliminary results was November 18th.

Consumers' assessment of current conditions deteriorated further in November. Consumers claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 40.3 percent from 37.1 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" edged up to 9.9 percent from 9.4 percent last month. Consumers' assessment of the labor market was more negative than a month ago. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 37.2 percent from 36.6 percent in October, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 8.8 percent from 9.0 percent.

Consumers' short-term outlook was less pessimistic. Consumers anticipating business conditions to worsen over the next six months declined to 28.1 percent from 36.5 percent, while those expecting conditions to improve rose to 11.4 percent from 9.6 percent. The outlook for the labor market was also less negative. The percent of consumers anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead declined to 33.3 percent from 41.5 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 9.2 percent from 7.3 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes increased to 13.3 percent from 11.1 percent.

The persistent declines in the Present Situation Index suggest that the economy has weakened further in the final months of this year. Inflation expectations, which have been at historically high levels in recent months, have subsided considerably as a result of falling gas prices. But, despite the improvement in the Expectations Index this month, consumers remain extremely pessimistic and the possibility that economic growth will improve in the first half of 2009 remains highly unlikely.
Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans

Based on surveys conducted by TNS

Percentage of households = 100%

 2007 2008
All series
seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.

 Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985 = 100

Consumer Confidence 87.8 90.6 87.3 76.4 65.9
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 115.7 112.9 114.3 104.0 90.6
 Expectations 69.1 75.8 69.3 58.0 49.4

 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 22.5 21.2 20.6 19.1 15.6
 Bad 18.9 18.8 20.1 21.3 25.5
 Normal 58.6 60.0 59.3 59.6 58.9
Employment
 Jobs plentiful 23.3 23.6 23.8 21.5 19.2
 Jobs not so plentiful 55.3 53.7 55.6 55.1 56.3
 Jobs hard to get 21.4 22.7 20.6 23.4 24.5

 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 12.4 13.8 11.5 9.7 8.6
 Worse 16.6 14.1 16.3 21.6 26.0
 Same 71.0 72.1 72.2 68.7 65.4
Employment
 More jobs 10.6 10.9 10.5 8.9 8.0
 Fewer jobs 22.8 19.9 21.9 28.0 29.3
 Same 66.6 69.2 67.6 63.1 62.7
Income
 Increase 19.4 20.2 18.1 18.0 16.1
 Decrease 10.9 10.4 9.8 10.6 13.7
 Same 69.7 69.4 72.1 71.4 70.2

 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 4.8 6.3 6.7 5.4 5.4
 New 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.2 2.6
 Used 1.8 2.4 3.2 2.2 2.2
 Uncertain 0.9 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.6
Home
 Yes 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.4
 New 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9
 Lived in 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.7
 Uncertain 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8
Major appliances
 Total plans 30.0 28.1 30.6 32.1 30.1
 Refrigerator 4.0 3.9 5.0 4.9 4.2
 Washing machine 3.9 3.4 3.9 3.3 3.6
 TV Set 9.2 8.9 9.7 11.0 11.1
 Vacuum Cleaner 5.0 4.7 4.1 4.4 4.8
 Range 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.4 2.3
 Clothes dryer 3.6 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.1
 Air conditioner 2.0 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.0
Carpet 3.4 4.1 5.0 4.4 3.9

 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended 44.5 43.0
 Destination
 U.S. 35.6 35.7
 Foreign country 9.7 9.6
 Means of Travel
 Automobile 22.3 22.4
 Airplane 18.4 19.3
 Other 4.7 3.9

 Business

 2008
All series
seasonally adjusted Apr. May June July

 Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985 = 100

Consumer Confidence 62.8 58.1 51.0 51.9
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 81.9 74.2 65.4 65.8
 Expectations 50.0 47.3 41.4 42.7

 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 15.4 13.0 11.5 13.2
 Bad 26.5 29.7 31.9 32.6
 Normal 58.1 57.3 56.6 54.2
Employment
 Jobs plentiful 17.1 16.1 14.1 13.6
 Jobs not so plentiful 55.0 55.6 56.2 56.2
 Jobs hard to get 27.9 28.3 29.7 30.2

 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 10.1 10.6 8.5 9.2
 Worse 27.4 32.9 33.5 32.4
 Same 62.5 56.5 58.0 58.4
Employment
 More jobs 8.8 9.0 8.0 8.0
 Fewer jobs 32.9 32.3 35.7 37.3
 Same 58.3 58.7 56.3 54.7
Income
 Increase 15.5 14.1 13.1 14.3
 Decrease 13.5 14.6 15.9 15.9
 Same 71.0 71.3 71.0 69.8

 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 5.8 5.1 5.1 5.0
 New 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.3
 Used 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.1
 Uncertain 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6
Home
 Yes 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.8
 New 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
 Lived in 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8
 Uncertain 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
Major appliances
 Total plans 32.1 33.6 28.3 28.6
 Refrigerator 4.1 4.6 3.8 4.0
 Washing machine 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.7
 TV Set 11.4 12.6 10.0 10.3
 Vacuum Cleaner 4.7 5.0 3.6 3.9
 Range 2.8 2.9 2.1 2.2
 Clothes dryer 3.8 3.3 3.4 2.9
 Air conditioner 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.6
Carpet 4.0 4.5 3.6 4.0

 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended 39.6 36.2
 Destination
 U.S. 33.4 30.1
 Foreign country 8.2 7.7
 Means of Travel
 Automobile 19.9 19.1
 Airplane 20.1 17.8
 Other 3.1 2.8

 Employment Income

 2008
All series
seasonally adjusted Aug. Sep. Oct.(r) Nov.(p)

 Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985 = 100

Consumer Confidence 58.5 61.4 38.8 44.9
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 65.0 61.1 43.5 42.2
 Expectations 54.1 61.5 35.7 46.7

 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 13.7 12.8 9.4 9.9
 Bad 32.7 33.4 37.1 40.3
 Normal 53.6 53.8 53.5 49.8
Employment
 Jobs plentiful 13.5 12.6 9.0 8.8
 Jobs not so plentiful 54.8 55.2 54.4 54.0
 Jobs hard to get 31.7 32.2 36.6 37.2

 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 12.0 13.4 9.6 11.4
 Worse 25.2 21.0 36.5 28.1
 Same 62.8 65.6 53.9 60.5
Employment
 More jobs 10.7 11.9 7.3 9.2
 Fewer jobs 30.0 26.9 41.5 33.3
 Same 59.3 61.2 51.2 57.5
Income
 Increase 15.4 15.1 11.1 13.3
 Decrease 15.9 13.9 19.2 17.7
 Same 68.7 71.0 69.7 69.0

 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 5.2 4.9 4.5 3.7
 New 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.3
 Used 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.0
 Uncertain 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.4
Home
 Yes 3.4 2.3 2.6 1.9
 New 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4
 Lived in 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2
 Uncertain 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.3
Major appliances
 Total plans 32.5 29.0 26.5 23.8
 Refrigerator 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.1
 Washing machine 3.8 3.3 3.2 2.6
 TV Set 11.4 10.8 9.5 9.0
 Vacuum Cleaner 5.1 4.3 3.3 3.3
 Range 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.0
 Clothes dryer 3.8 2.5 2.9 2.5
 Air conditioner 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.3
Carpet 4.3 4.3 3.4 3.3

 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended 37.3 39.2
 Destination
 U.S. 30.7 31.4
 Foreign country 8.0 8.8
 Means of Travel
 Automobile 19.3 21.2
 Airplane 16.0 14.5
 Other 3.8 3.9

(p)--preliminary (r)--revised

Inflation Interest Rates Stock Prices

 2007 2008
Not Seasonally
Adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.

 Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent

Inflation Rate
 Average 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.4 6.1
Interest Rates
 Higher 43.8 44.1 43.6 31.9 35.4
 Same 33.1 30.9 30.4 31.1 27.0
 Lower 23.1 25.0 26.0 37.0 37.6
Stock Prices
 Increase 26.7 29.6 25.5 19.9 18.1
 Same 40.8 39.1 40.0 37.1 33.0
 Decrease 32.5 31.3 34.5 43.0 48.9

 2008
Not Seasonally
Adjusted Apr. May June July Aug.

 Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent

Inflation Rate
 Average 6.8 7.7 7.7 7.5 6.6
Interest Rates
 Higher 37.3 38.4 43.3 46.6 45.8
 Same 28.3 31.8 30.0 31.0 32.3
 Lower 34.4 29.8 26.7 22.4 21.9
Stock Prices
 Increase 21.8 24.4 21.7 18.2 22.5
 Same 32.5 30.8 30.1 26.9 33.4
 Decrease 45.7 44.8 48.2 54.9 44.1

 2008
Not Seasonally
Adjusted Sep. Oct.(r) Nov.(p)

 Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent

Inflation Rate
 Average 6.2 6.8 5.9
Interest Rates
 Higher 45.8 47.3 37.1
 Same 34.5 26.2 35.0
 Lower 19.7 26.5 27.9
Stock Prices
 Increase 23.2 21.9 27.4
 Same 33.3 23.9 33.3
 Decrease 43.5 54.2 39.3

 2007 2008
All series
seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.

 Consumer Confidence Index[TM], 1985 = 100

Age of Household Head
 Under 35 99.0 100.9 98.6 87.7 82.9
 35-54 89.1 90.8 83.9 77.2 68.7
 55 and over 81.4 85.2 84.6 68.4 54.3
Household Income
 Under $15,000 62.4 69.6 55.8 58.0 50.5
 $15,000-24,999 69.7 73.2 79.2 50.6 52.3
 $25,000-34,999 79.9 75.0 73.1 68.6 51.1
 $35,000-49,999 85.4 91.2 82.0 80.5 56.5
 $50,000 and over 99.9 105.1 101.6 87.0 79.1

 2008
All series
seasonally adjusted Apr. May June July Aug.

 Consumer Confidence Index[TM], 1985 = 100

Age of Household Head
 Under 35 79.2 68.4 67.5 68.5 76.6
 35-54 65.2 60.4 49.3 54.4 58.5
 55 and over 50.7 49.8 44.6 42.8 50.7
Household Income
 Under $15,000 48.7 45.0 32.6 31.9 45.5
 $15,000-24,999 46.1 45.2 39.9 36.1 36.6
 $25,000-34,999 51.8 47.4 31.2 48.7 45.4
 $35,000-49,999 59.4 54.0 41.4 53.5 59.0
 $50,000 and over 74.0 68.7 65.8 61.4 71.7

 3 mos.
All series Percent
seasonally adjusted Sep. Oct.(r) Nov.(p) Change *

 Consumer Confidence Index[TM], 1985 = 100

Age of Household Head
 Under 35 77.7 48.0 49.9 -17.4
 35-54 61.1 40.7 45.7 -9.1
 55 and over 54.5 33.4 42.0 -5.9
Household Income
 Under $15,000 47.1 35.2 38.8 10.1
 $15,000-24,999 49.4 32.0 37.5 5.6
 $25,000-34,999 44.3 35.5 37.5 -6.4
 $35,000-49,999 60.8 36.9 48.5 -5.0
 $50,000 and over 73.4 43.2 49.9 -16.3

* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
preceding three months. Age and Income data have been adjusted for
seasonal variations.

Consumer Confidence by Region

Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2007 2008
U.S. Average,
1985 = 100 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.

New England
 Consumer Confidence 62.0 73.0 71.9 70.5 57.5
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 76.5 96.7 99.5 93.1 83.1
 Expectations 52.4 57.2 53.5 55.4 40.4
Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence 86.8 78.8 72.5 72.2 59.6
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 116.6 107.7 96.2 86.3 76.8
 Expectations 67.0 59.5 56.8 62.9 48.1
East North Central
 Consumer Confidence 59.9 57.9 65.8 59.1 46.0
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 62.7 65.7 73.1 64.8 40.1
 Expectations 58.0 52.7 60.9 55.3 50.0
West North Central
 Consumer Confidence 92.8 93.9 108.0 96.2 76.5
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 130.5 127.3 137.1 114.3 104.5
 Expectations 67.7 71.7 88.6 84.2 57.8
South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence 103.1 97.8 85.6 92.4 87.3
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 130.1 131.2 111.1 113.2 116.1
 Expectations 85.1 75.6 68.6 78.6 68.0
East South Central
 Consumer Confidence 106.4 81.2 97.2 100.7 87.2
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 122.7 98.2 117.2 116.2 103.5
 Expectations 95.6 69.8 84.0 90.4 76.3
West South Central
 Consumer Confidence 127.7 122.6 119.5 125.3 106.3
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 159.0 167.1 160.2 162.8 137.0
 Expectations 106.8 92.9 92.4 100.3 85.8
Mountain
 Consumer Confidence 140.1 119.6 114.0 122.8 102.1
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 181.4 156.1 159.4 171.5 142.5
 Expectations 112.6 95.3 83.7 90.3 75.1
Pacific
 Consumer Confidence 120.1 100.0 98.6 80.7 84.5
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 156.8 146.6 135.1 117.6 110.1
 Expectations 95.6 69.0 74.3 56.1 67.4

Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2008
U.S. Average,
1985 = 100 Mar. Apr. May June July

New England
 Consumer Confidence 57.8 43.7 49.7 26.6 51.4
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 75.8 52.5 56.8 36.2 64.4
 Expectations 45.7 37.8 45.0 20.1 42.8
Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence 51.9 49.7 45.4 40.9 33.6
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 68.3 58.1 53.9 49.2 40.2
 Expectations 41.0 44.1 39.7 35.4 29.2
East North Central
 Consumer Confidence 38.2 41.4 34.7 28.3 28.8
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 37.1 39.7 34.1 27.9 32.6
 Expectations 38.9 42.5 35.1 28.6 26.3
West North Central
 Consumer Confidence 73.0 79.5 55.1 64.0 58.5
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 98.1 100.8 75.5 101.4 82.3
 Expectations 56.3 65.3 41.5 39.0 42.7
South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence 67.9 64.3 58.5 51.3 53.4
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 88.7 83.9 74.7 63.4 64.7
 Expectations 54.1 51.3 47.8 43.3 45.9
East South Central
 Consumer Confidence 68.5 77.0 63.4 56.8 57.5
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 97.4 95.6 75.0 75.7 71.7
 Expectations 49.3 64.5 55.7 44.3 48.1
West South Central
 Consumer Confidence 97.5 91.3 82.6 82.8 80.0
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 132.9 131.1 119.7 125.0 124.8
 Expectations 73.9 64.7 58.0 54.6 50.2
Mountain
 Consumer Confidence 97.5 67.5 74.9 69.2 69.0
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 137.4 96.2 102.7 102.9 96.3
 Expectations 70.9 48.4 56.4 46.8 50.9
Pacific
 Consumer Confidence 65.9 58.1 57.1 51.6 48.4
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 85.3 75.3 73.8 62.9 54.9
 Expectations 52.9 46.7 45.9 44.1 44.1

Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2008
U.S. Average,
1985 = 100 Aug. Sep. Oct.(r) Nov.(p)

New England
 Consumer Confidence 42.0 42.8 25.2 35.2
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 38.9 49.7 41.8 22.0
 Expectations 44.1 38.3 14.1 44.1
Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence 44.9 50.1 35.0 44.8
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 51.6 54.5 42.0 46.9
 Expectations 40.4 47.1 30.3 43.4
East North Central
 Consumer Confidence 38.8 44.5 29.0 35.9
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 31.1 32.4 21.9 30.4
 Expectations 44.0 52.6 33.8 39.6
West North Central
 Consumer Confidence 62.7 61.4 50.2 61.4
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 83.8 73.9 64.4 83.1
 Expectations 48.7 53.1 40.7 47.0
South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence 56.3 64.3 37.3 40.7
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 60.8 62.5 34.6 30.1
 Expectations 53.3 65.5 39.2 47.7
East South Central
 Consumer Confidence 64.0 83.0 45.2 57.4
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 76.2 91.3 46.0 53.0
 Expectations 55.8 77.5 44.6 60.3
West South Central
 Consumer Confidence 92.8 93.0 77.0 63.2
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 122.6 120.8 112.6 85.1
 Expectations 72.9 74.5 53.3 48.6
Mountain
 Consumer Confidence 82.7 75.0 56.2 64.7
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 96.7 80.9 77.2 78.5
 Expectations 73.4 71.1 42.3 55.5
Pacific
 Consumer Confidence 50.0 62.9 40.4 45.0
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 55.2 60.9 46.4 35.1
 Expectations 46.5 64.3 36.4 51.7

Seasonally unadjusted 3-MONTH AVG.
Index numbers: Sep., Oct., Nov.
U.S. Average, Percent
1985 = 100 2007 2008 Change

New England
 Consumer Confidence 73.1 34.4 52.9
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 94.9 37.8 -60.2
 Expectations 58.5 32.2 -45.0
Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence 86.4 43.3 -49.9
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 114.3 47.8 -58.2
 Expectations 67.8 40.3 -40.6
East North Central
 Consumer Confidence 60.2 36.5 39.4
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 64.7 28.2 -56.4
 Expectations 57.2 42.0 -26.5
West North Central
 Consumer Confidence 99.6 57.7 -42.1
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 135.1 73.8 -45.4
 Expectations 76.0 46.9 38.3
South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence 103.4 47.4 -54.1
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 132.6 42.4 68.0
 Expectations 83.9 50.8 39.5
East South Central
 Consumer Confidence 102.8 61.9 -39.8
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 120.7 63.4 47.4
 Expectations 90.9 60.8 -33.1
West South Central
 Consumer Confidence 123.8 77.7 -37.2
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 160.5 106.1 -33.9
 Expectations 99.3 58.8 -40.8
Mountain
 Consumer Confidence 126.5 65.3 -48.4
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 166.8 78.8 -52.7
 Expectations 99.7 56.3 -43.5
Pacific
 Consumer Confidence 109.1 49.5 -54.7
 Index[TM]
 Present Situation 148.0 47.5 -67.9
 Expectations 83.2 50.8 -38.9

* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
the same period a year ago. Regional data are not adjusted for seasonal
variation.
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Author:Franco, Lynn
Publication:Consumer Confidence Survey
Date:Dec 1, 2008
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