Consumer Confidence springs back.
March ResultsThe Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in March after declining for five consecutive months. The Index now stands at 117.0 (1985=100), up from 109.2 in February. The Expectations Index increased from 70.7 to 83.6. The Present Situation Index rose from 167.1 to 167.2.
The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO WorldGroup, a member of The Interpublic Group of Companies (NYSE: IPG).
Consumers' assessment of ongoing business conditions was more positive in March than in February. The percentage of respondents who rated current business conditions as "good" rose from 31.6 percent to 32.9 percent. Those rating conditions as "bad" increased from 10.6 percent to 10.8 percent. Consumers claiming jobs were "hard to get" rose from 12.4 percent to 12.7 percent. Those reporting jobs were plentiful increased from 43.3 percent to 43.7 percent.
Consumers' short-term outlook in March was substantially more optimistic than in February. The percentage of respondents expecting an improvement in business conditions increased from 11.3 percent to 15.4 percent. Those anticipating conditions to worsen decreased from 17.6 percent to 13.6 percent. The employment outlook was also more favorable. Currently, 12.2 percent of consumers expect more jobs to become available, up from 10.8 percent. Those expecting fewer jobs to become available declined from 26.5 percent to 20.1 percent. Income expectations did not improve. Now, only 23.2 percent of respondents anticipate a gain, down from 23.9 percent in February.
The rebound in consumer confidence was prompted by a boost in expectations concerning short-term business and employment prospects. The reverberations experienced throughout the financial markets in mid-March have done little to dampen consumers' assessment of present conditions, but more importantly, they have not eroded expectations.
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Consumer Confidence +7.8 117.0 Present Situation +0.1 167.2 Expectations +12.9 83.6 Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans Based on surveys conducted by NFO Research, Inc. Percentage of households = 100% Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985-100 2000 All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June Consumer Confidence Index 137.1 137.7 144.7 139.2 Present Situation 182.5 179.8 183.6 180.1 Expectations 106.8 109.7 118.7 111.9 Business 2000 All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct. Consumer Confidence Index 143.0 140.8 142.5 135.8 Present Situation 186.8 181.3 182.5 176.8 Expectations 113.7 113.9 115.9 108.4 Business Employment 2000 2001 All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.(r) Consumer Confidence Index 132.6 128.6 115.7 109.2 Present Situation 179.7 176.1 170.4 167.1 Expectations 101.2 96.9 79.3 70.7 Income 2001 All series seasonally adjusted Mar.(p) Consumer Confidence Index 117.0 Present Situation 167.2 Expectations 83.6 Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent 2000 All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June Business Conditions Good 45.7 44.5 45.0 43.7 Bad 8.7 8.4 7.2 9.4 Normal 45.6 47.1 47.8 46.9 Employment Jobs plentiful 53.3 52.4 53.0 53.7 Jobs not so plentiful 36.1 35.5 36.0 35.1 Jobs hard to get 10.6 12.1 11.0 11.2 Business 2000 All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct. Business Conditions Good 45.4 46.2 47.9 43.4 Bad 7.3 8.6 8.8 9.7 Normal 47.3 45.2 43.3 46.9 Employment Jobs plentiful 55.8 53.5 52.5 50.0 Jobs not so plentiful 34.6 35.0 36.9 38.0 Jobs hard to get 9.6 11.5 10.6 12.0 Business Employment 2000 2001 All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.(r) Business Conditions Good 43.1 40.8 34.5 31.6 Bad 8.8 9.5 10.7 10.6 Normal 48.1 49.7 54.8 57.8 Employment Jobs plentiful 50.6 50.8 49.0 43.3 Jobs not so plentiful 38.3 36.8 38.2 44.3 Jobs hard to get 11.1 12.4 12.8 12.4 Income 2001 All series seasonally adjusted Mar.(p) Business Conditions Good 32.9 Bad 10.8 Normal 56.3 Employment Jobs plentiful 43.7 Jobs not so plentiful 43.6 Jobs hard to get 12.7 Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent 2000 All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June Business Conditions Better 14.8 15.5 18.6 18.3 Worse 6.8 5.3 4.7 6.3 Same 78.4 79.2 76.7 75.4 Employment More jobs 15.7 16.5 19.6 18.2 Fewer jobs 11.7 11.7 10.1 11.6 Same 72.6 71.8 70.3 70.2 Income Increase 26.3 24.6 27.6 25.4 Decrease 5.3 5.8 5.0 5.4 Same 68.4 69.6 67.4 69.2 Business 2000 All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct. Business Conditions Better 17.2 17.2 19.0 16.9 Worse 6.1 5.4 5.6 7.2 Same 76.7 77.4 75.4 75.9 Employment More jobs 17.6 17.1 18.7 18.6 Fewer jobs 10.2 11.0 10.9 12.8 Same 72.2 71.9 70.4 68.6 Income Increase 26.4 28.6 28.1 24.6 Decrease 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.3 Same 68.5 66.4 67.1 70.1 Business Employment 2000 2001 All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.(r) Business Conditions Better 14.7 16.9 13.1 11.3 Worse 8.3 10.1 15.2 17.6 Same 77.0 73.0 71.7 71.1 Employment More jobs 14.7 14.0 11.7 10.8 Fewer jobs 13.6 15.7 21.5 26.5 Same 71.7 70.3 66.8 62.7 Income Increase 28.7 28.3 24.1 23.9 Decrease 5.6 6.0 6.8 7.5 Same 65.7 65.7 69.1 68.6 Income 2001 All series seasonally adjusted Mar.(p) Business Conditions Better 15.4 Worse 13.6 Same 71.0 Employment More jobs 12.2 Fewer jobs 20.1 Same 67.7 Income Increase 23.2 Decrease 7.0 Same 69.8 Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent 2000 All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June Automobile Yes 8.5 8.3 10.1 8.4 New 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 Used 3.4 3.0 4.1 3.1 Uncertain 0.7 1.0 1.7 0.8 Home Yes 4.0 3.2 3.8 3.6 New 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 Lived in 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.6 Uncertain 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 Major appliances Total plans 31.6 29.7 32.6 31.9 Refrigerator 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.7 Washing machine 4.1 3.1 4.0 3.9 TV Set 7.7 7.3 7.9 8.4 Vacuum Cleaner 5.8 5.0 6.4 5.1 Range 3.0 3.8 3.4 2.9 Clothes dryer 4.5 3.6 4.0 4.4 Air conditioner 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 Carpet 6.3 5.5 6.8 5.8 Business 2000 All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct. Automobile Yes 7.3 9.1 7.8 9.3 New 2.9 4.0 3.7 4.3 Used 3.2 4.0 2.9 3.5 Uncertain 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.5 Home Yes 3.6 4.1 2.9 3.6 New 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 Lived in 1.6 1.7 0.9 1.4 Uncertain 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.0 Major appliances Total plans 27.4 31.9 27.8 26.6 Refrigerator 3.4 4.8 4.0 3.7 Washing machine 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 TV Set 6.9 8.4 6.6 6.9 Vacuum Cleaner 5.4 6.5 5.9 4.9 Range 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.0 Clothes dryer 3.3 3.4 2.6 2.9 Air conditioner 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.6 Carpet 5.3 6.4 5.8 5.9 Business Employment 2000 2001 All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.(r) Automobile Yes 7.2 8.3 7.8 9.0 New 3.0 4.2 3.3 4.1 Used 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.8 Uncertain 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 Home Yes 3.2 3.3 3.3 4.0 New 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.2 Lived in 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.6 Uncertain 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 Major appliances Total plans 27.6 29.8 28.1 28.3 Refrigerator 4.2 4.9 4.1 4.3 Washing machine 3.0 3.8 4.0 3.8 TV Set 6.2 7.2 6.7 7.6 Vacuum Cleaner 4.8 5.1 5.2 4.7 Range 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.8 Clothes dryer 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.2 Air conditioner 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 Carpet 5.3 5.9 6.2 5.4 Income 2001 All series seasonally adjusted Mar.(p) Automobile Yes 7.8 New 3.8 Used 3.1 Uncertain 0.9 Home Yes 4.1 New 1.2 Lived in 1.8 Uncertain 1.1 Major appliances Total plans 28.9 Refrigerator 4.0 Washing machine 3.9 TV Set 7.3 Vacuum Cleaner 5.7 Range 2.6 Clothes dryer 3.6 Air conditioner 1.8 Carpet 5.7 Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent 2000 All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June Vacation Intended 46.3 44.8 Destination U.S. 39.4 37.6 Foreign country 9.0 9.2 Means of Travel Automobile 24.4 24.1 Airplane 21.9 21.1 Other 3.9 3.7 Business 2000 All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct. Vacation Intended 45.7 50.1 Destination U.S. 39.3 42.0 Foreign country 8.2 9.8 Means of Travel Automobile 25.2 27.4 Airplane 19.3 18.6 Other 3.5 4.7 Business Employment 2000 2001 All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.(r) Vacation Intended 48.6 43.1 Destination U.S. 40.2 35.9 Foreign country 9.3 8.9 Means of Travel Automobile 25.8 23.7 Airplane 19.4 17.4 Other 4.3 4.1 Income 2001 All series seasonally adjusted Mar.(p) Vacation Intended Destination U.S. Foreign country Means of Travel Automobile Airplane Other (p) - preliminary (r) - revised Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent Inflation Interest Rates Stock Prices 2000 Not Seasonally Adjusted Mar. Apr. May June July Inflation Rate Average 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.1 Interest Rates Higher 73.7 71.5 71.8 70.6 68.7 Same 21.1 22.6 22.4 23.4 25.8 Lower 5.2 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.5 Stock Prices Increase 39.7 38.2 36.8 38.4 41.4 Same 39.2 39.3 40.8 39.6 40.8 Decrease 21.1 22.5 22.4 22.0 17.8 Inflation 2000 Not Seasonally Adjusted Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Inflation Rate Average 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Interest Rates Higher 61.7 57.8 55.9 57.2 51.3 Same 29.5 34.1 34.8 33.9 28.3 Lower 8.8 8.1 9.3 8.9 20.4 Stock Prices Increase 38.7 39.5 34.1 36.8 34.1 Same 39.6 42.4 39.5 39.6 34.1 Decrease 21.7 18.1 26.4 23.6 31.8 Inflation 2001 Not Seasonally Adjusted Jan. Feb.(r) Mar.(p) Inflation Rate Average 4.7 4.7 4.3 Interest Rates Higher 39.5 29.4 32.8 Same 27.5 27.8 29.7 Lower 33.0 42.8 37.5 Stock Prices Increase 30.5 30.5 29.1 Same 37.0 36.9 36.0 Decrease 32.5 32.6 34.9 Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = 100 2000 All series season- ally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June July Age of Household Head Under 35 145.1 137.0 146.6 139.3 147.4 35-54 136.1 138.3 143.8 139.9 143.7 55 and over 131.3 134.9 143.0 136.3 138.3 Household Income Under $15,000 105.8 107.2 116.5 113.1 118.3 $15,000-24,999 127.7 119.3 133.9 124.1 134.4 $25,000-34,999 141.1 136.2 144.0 136.4 136.4 $35,000-49,999 139.2 145.4 154.1 142.1 141.7 $50,000 and over 148.2 151.1 154.0 151.2 155.0 2000 All series season- ally adjusted Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Age of Household Head Under 35 144.2 149.3 137.3 129.5 129.3 35-54 139.3 139.6 134.2 132.6 129.7 55 and over 139.5 141.0 135.7 132.5 125.5 Household Income Under $15,000 108.7 122.4 104.0 106.6 103.5 $15,000-24,999 130.1 135.3 124.4 123.5 115.3 $25,000-34,999 133.4 135.1 138.7 128.6 125.2 $35,000-49,999 147.5 145.7 140.2 137.4 129.3 $50,000 and over 154.1 152.4 147.6 142.8 140.8 2001 3 mos. All series season- Percent ally adjusted Jan. Feb.(r) Mar.(p) Change * Age of Household Head Under 35 123.4 120.8 124.7 -6.8 35-54 112.6 110.5 115.1 -14.7 55 and over 113.4 99.7 114.1 -16.9 Household Income Under $15,000 94.4 80.1 91.6 -15.3 $15,000-24,999 108.3 98.4 108.3 -13.3 $25,000-34,999 113.7 105.3 112.1 -15.6 $35,000-49,999 122.8 114.8 120.3 -12.1 $50,000 and over 123.0 120.3 126.7 -14.2 Consumer Confidence by Region Seasonally unadjusted Index numbers: U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 2000 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June New England Consumer Confidence 142.8 132.7 136.5 150.3 142.4 Index Present Situation 184.9 192.2 195.7 195.4 203.3 Expectations 114.7 93.0 97.0 120.2 101.9 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence 127.3 122.0 119.3 125.6 122.7 Index Present Situation 153.0 158.8 154.5 161.7 160.8 Expectations 110.1 97.5 95.9 101.5 97.3 East North Central Consumer Confidence 151.1 140.2 148.7 148.0 138.7 Index Present Situation 193.9 191.7 192.4 191.2 187.9 Expectations 122.5 105.8 119.6 119.2 105.9 West North Central Consumer Confidence 141.6 144.6 137.7 142.1 130.2 Index Present Situation 181.5 189.0 187.7 191.4 191.8 Expectations 115.0 115.0 104.4 109.2 89.1 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence 145.6 143.1 140.8 148.9 143.9 Index Present Situation 184.5 186.7 175.8 185.0 185.2 Expectations 119.6 114.1 117.5 124.9 116.3 East South Central Consumer Confidence 136.4 133.4 126.7 136.9 134.0 Index Present Situation 161.9 174.8 155.5 167.7 164.6 Expectations 119.4 105.8 107.5 116.3 113.5 West South Central Consumer Confidence 137.2 140.2 139.1 142.3 144.7 Index Present Situation 158.4 174.3 175.1 179.4 178.3 Expectations 123.0 117.6 115.0 117.7 122.3 Mountain Consumer Confidence 144.4 130.8 142.3 145.7 144.8 Index Present Situation 174.6 163.7 183.1 177.9 178.1 Expectations 124.2 109.0 115.1 124.3 122.7 Consumer Consumer Confidence 144.8 141.0 135.8 143.1 135.4 Index Present Situation 179.2 171.1 179.2 185.8 180.0 Expectations 121.8 120.9 106.9 114.7 105.7 2000 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. New England Consumer Confidence 135.4 143.9 136.5 140.7 133.4 Index Present Situation 196.9 195.0 192.8 195.5 198.2 Expectations 94.4 109.8 99.0 104.1 90.2 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence 130.4 130.7 129.2 124.4 121.0 Index Present Situation 173.9 168.3 169.1 163.4 165.6 Expectations 101.4 105.6 102.7 98.4 91.2 East North Central Consumer Confidence 140.2 136.2 147.9 142.1 134.6 Index Present Situation 194.7 188.4 196.6 186.5 192.2 Expectations 103.8 101.3 115.5 112.5 96.3 West North Central Consumer Confidence 137.4 136.8 141.3 134.3 128.2 Index Present Situation 190.0 187.8 187.7 185.4 182.9 Expectations 102.3 102.7 110.3 100.2 91.7 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence 147.2 150.6 149.4 144.4 142.1 Index Present Situation 189.4 189.1 190.4 188.3 188.8 Expectations 119.1 124.9 122.1 115.2 110.9 East South Central Consumer Confidence 138.7 125.5 137.7 135.6 123.4 Index Present Situation 182.4 160.4 169.2 172.5 163.3 Expectations 109.6 102.3 116.7 110.9 96.8 West South Central Consumer Confidence 149.1 138.3 148.1 134.9 135.6 Index Present Situation 184.9 172.5 187.4 171.4 176.1 Expectations 125.2 115.5 122.0 110.5 108.6 Mountain Consumer Confidence 143.7 143.2 145.0 147.4 139.7 Index Present Situation 183.3 181.4 185.2 182.7 179.3 Expectations 117.3 117.7 118.2 123.9 113.4 Consumer Consumer Confidence 140.9 134.3 137.7 138.4 136.9 Index Present Situation 182.6 176.6 178.0 182.8 185.1 Expectations 113.1 106.2 110.9 108.9 104.8 2000 2001 Dec. Jan. Feb. (r) Mar. (p) New England Consumer Confidence 125.9 111.9 115.4 117.1 Index Present Situation 195.6 173.9 189.6 182.0 Expectations 79.5 70.5 66.0 73.9 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence 114.9 107.0 101.8 98.9 Index Present Situation 164.7 160.7 138.5 136.8 Expectations 81.8 71.2 77.4 73.6 East North Central Consumer Confidence 126.3 106.8 101.9 113.3 Index Present Situation 186.3 168.5 158.9 161.0 Expectations 86.3 65.7 64.0 81.5 West North Central Consumer Confidence 129.2 115.9 107.3 119.9 Index Present Situation 183.3 170.3 163.8 171.5 Expectations 93.2 79.7 69.6 85.6 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence 132.4 126.7 118.3 127.2 Index Present Situation 179.8 175.7 174.5 173.2 Expectations 100.9 94.0 80.9 96.5 East South Central Consumer Confidence 120.4 120.2 98.1 107.4 Index Present Situation 151.4 152.8 138.2 140.2 Expectations 99.8 98.5 71.4 85.5 West South Central Consumer Confidence 122.6 126.0 122.4 125.5 Index Present Situation 163.7 161.8 165.3 165.7 Expectations 95.3 102.2 93.8 98.8 Mountain Consumer Confidence 137.0 119.8 122.3 132.2 Index Present Situation 185.2 163.6 170.0 171.0 Expectations 104.9 90.7 90.4 106.3 Consumer Consumer Confidence 128.3 117.3 110.1 117.0 Index Present Situation 183.5 173.2 165.8 164.7 Expectations 91.5 80.0 73.0 85.3 3-MONTH AVG. Jan.,Feb.,Mar. Percent 2000 2001 Change New England Consumer Confidence 140.4 114.8 -18.3 Index Present Situation 190.0 181.8 -4.3 Expectations 107.4 70.1 -34.7 Middle Atlantic Consumer Confidence 127.5 102.6 -19.6 Index Present Situation 160.1 145.3 -9.3 Expectations 105.8 74.1 -30.0 East North Central Consumer Confidence 146.6 107.3 -26.8 Index Present Situation 192.3 162.8 -15.3 Expectations 116.2 70.4 -39.4 West North Central Consumer Confidence 141.6 114.4 -19.2 Index Present Situation 184.6 168.5 -8.7 Expectations 113.0 78.3 -30.7 South Atlantic Consumer Confidence 146.1 124.1 -15.1 Index Present Situation 185.1 174.4 -5.8 Expectations 120.1 90.5 -24.7 East South Central Consumer Confidence 138.1 108.6 -21.4 Index Present Situation 169.7 143.7 -15.3 Expectations 117.0 85.1 -27.2 West South Central Consumer Confidence 141.8 124.7 -12.1 Index Present Situation 168.6 164.3 -2.6 Expectations 124.0 98.3 -20.8 Mountain Consumer Confidence 138.6 124.8 -10.0 Index Present Situation 170.6 168.2 -1.4 Expectations 117.2 95.8 -18.3 Consumer Consumer Confidence 144.8 114.8 -20.7 Index Present Situation 176.9 167.9 -5.1 Expectations 123.4 79.4 -35.6 * Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with the same period year. Regional data are not adjusted for seasonal variation.
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| Author: | Franco, Lynn |
|---|---|
| Publication: | Consumer Confidence Survey |
| Article Type: | Statistical Data Included |
| Geographic Code: | 1USA |
| Date: | Apr 1, 2001 |
| Words: | 3776 |
| Previous Article: | Consumer Confidence deteriorates further. |
| Next Article: | Consumer confidence rebounds. |
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