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Consumer Confidence springs back.

March Results

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in March after declining for five consecutive months. The Index now stands at 117.0 (1985=100), up from 109.2 in February. The Expectations Index increased from 70.7 to 83.6. The Present Situation Index rose from 167.1 to 167.2.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO WorldGroup, a member of The Interpublic Group of Companies (NYSE: IPG).

Consumers' assessment of ongoing business conditions was more positive in March than in February. The percentage of respondents who rated current business conditions as "good" rose from 31.6 percent to 32.9 percent. Those rating conditions as "bad" increased from 10.6 percent to 10.8 percent. Consumers claiming jobs were "hard to get" rose from 12.4 percent to 12.7 percent. Those reporting jobs were plentiful increased from 43.3 percent to 43.7 percent.

Consumers' short-term outlook in March was substantially more optimistic than in February. The percentage of respondents expecting an improvement in business conditions increased from 11.3 percent to 15.4 percent. Those anticipating conditions to worsen decreased from 17.6 percent to 13.6 percent. The employment outlook was also more favorable. Currently, 12.2 percent of consumers expect more jobs to become available, up from 10.8 percent. Those expecting fewer jobs to become available declined from 26.5 percent to 20.1 percent. Income expectations did not improve. Now, only 23.2 percent of respondents anticipate a gain, down from 23.9 percent in February.

The rebound in consumer confidence was prompted by a boost in expectations concerning short-term business and employment prospects. The reverberations experienced throughout the financial markets in mid-March have done little to dampen consumers' assessment of present conditions, but more importantly, they have not eroded expectations.

[GRAPH OMITTED]

[GRAPH OMITTED]
Consumer Confidence +7.8
 117.0

Present Situation +0.1
 167.2

Expectations +12.9
 83.6
Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans

Based on surveys conducted by NFO Research, Inc.

Percentage of households = 100%

Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985-100


 2000
All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June

Consumer Confidence Index 137.1 137.7 144.7 139.2
 Present Situation 182.5 179.8 183.6 180.1
 Expectations 106.8 109.7 118.7 111.9

 Business
 2000
All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct.

Consumer Confidence Index 143.0 140.8 142.5 135.8
 Present Situation 186.8 181.3 182.5 176.8
 Expectations 113.7 113.9 115.9 108.4

 Business Employment
 2000 2001
All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.(r)

Consumer Confidence Index 132.6 128.6 115.7 109.2
 Present Situation 179.7 176.1 170.4 167.1
 Expectations 101.2 96.9 79.3 70.7

 Income
 2001
All series seasonally adjusted Mar.(p)

Consumer Confidence Index 117.0
 Present Situation 167.2
 Expectations 83.6

Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent


 2000
All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June

Business Conditions

 Good 45.7 44.5 45.0 43.7
 Bad 8.7 8.4 7.2 9.4
 Normal 45.6 47.1 47.8 46.9

Employment

 Jobs plentiful 53.3 52.4 53.0 53.7
 Jobs not so plentiful 36.1 35.5 36.0 35.1
 Jobs hard to get 10.6 12.1 11.0 11.2

 Business
 2000
All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct.

Business Conditions

 Good 45.4 46.2 47.9 43.4
 Bad 7.3 8.6 8.8 9.7
 Normal 47.3 45.2 43.3 46.9

Employment

 Jobs plentiful 55.8 53.5 52.5 50.0
 Jobs not so plentiful 34.6 35.0 36.9 38.0
 Jobs hard to get 9.6 11.5 10.6 12.0

 Business Employment
 2000 2001
All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.(r)

Business Conditions

 Good 43.1 40.8 34.5 31.6
 Bad 8.8 9.5 10.7 10.6
 Normal 48.1 49.7 54.8 57.8

Employment

 Jobs plentiful 50.6 50.8 49.0 43.3
 Jobs not so plentiful 38.3 36.8 38.2 44.3
 Jobs hard to get 11.1 12.4 12.8 12.4

 Income
 2001
All series seasonally adjusted Mar.(p)

Business Conditions

 Good 32.9
 Bad 10.8
 Normal 56.3

Employment

 Jobs plentiful 43.7
 Jobs not so plentiful 43.6
 Jobs hard to get 12.7

Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent


 2000
All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June

Business Conditions

 Better 14.8 15.5 18.6 18.3
 Worse 6.8 5.3 4.7 6.3
 Same 78.4 79.2 76.7 75.4

Employment

 More jobs 15.7 16.5 19.6 18.2
 Fewer jobs 11.7 11.7 10.1 11.6
 Same 72.6 71.8 70.3 70.2

Income

 Increase 26.3 24.6 27.6 25.4
 Decrease 5.3 5.8 5.0 5.4
 Same 68.4 69.6 67.4 69.2

 Business
 2000
All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct.

Business Conditions

 Better 17.2 17.2 19.0 16.9
 Worse 6.1 5.4 5.6 7.2
 Same 76.7 77.4 75.4 75.9

Employment

 More jobs 17.6 17.1 18.7 18.6
 Fewer jobs 10.2 11.0 10.9 12.8
 Same 72.2 71.9 70.4 68.6

Income

 Increase 26.4 28.6 28.1 24.6
 Decrease 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.3
 Same 68.5 66.4 67.1 70.1

 Business Employment
 2000 2001
All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.(r)

Business Conditions

 Better 14.7 16.9 13.1 11.3
 Worse 8.3 10.1 15.2 17.6
 Same 77.0 73.0 71.7 71.1

Employment

 More jobs 14.7 14.0 11.7 10.8
 Fewer jobs 13.6 15.7 21.5 26.5
 Same 71.7 70.3 66.8 62.7

Income

 Increase 28.7 28.3 24.1 23.9
 Decrease 5.6 6.0 6.8 7.5
 Same 65.7 65.7 69.1 68.6

 Income
 2001
All series seasonally adjusted Mar.(p)

Business Conditions

 Better 15.4
 Worse 13.6
 Same 71.0

Employment

 More jobs 12.2
 Fewer jobs 20.1
 Same 67.7

Income

 Increase 23.2
 Decrease 7.0
 Same 69.8

Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent


 2000
All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June

Automobile

 Yes 8.5 8.3 10.1 8.4
 New 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5
 Used 3.4 3.0 4.1 3.1
 Uncertain 0.7 1.0 1.7 0.8

Home

 Yes 4.0 3.2 3.8 3.6
 New 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.9
 Lived in 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.6
 Uncertain 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.1

Major appliances

 Total plans 31.6 29.7 32.6 31.9
 Refrigerator 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.7
 Washing machine 4.1 3.1 4.0 3.9
 TV Set 7.7 7.3 7.9 8.4
 Vacuum Cleaner 5.8 5.0 6.4 5.1
 Range 3.0 3.8 3.4 2.9
 Clothes dryer 4.5 3.6 4.0 4.4
 Air conditioner 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.5
Carpet 6.3 5.5 6.8 5.8

 Business
 2000
All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct.

Automobile

 Yes 7.3 9.1 7.8 9.3
 New 2.9 4.0 3.7 4.3
 Used 3.2 4.0 2.9 3.5
 Uncertain 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.5

Home

 Yes 3.6 4.1 2.9 3.6
 New 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.2
 Lived in 1.6 1.7 0.9 1.4
 Uncertain 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.0

Major appliances

 Total plans 27.4 31.9 27.8 26.6
 Refrigerator 3.4 4.8 4.0 3.7
 Washing machine 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6
 TV Set 6.9 8.4 6.6 6.9
 Vacuum Cleaner 5.4 6.5 5.9 4.9
 Range 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.0
 Clothes dryer 3.3 3.4 2.6 2.9
 Air conditioner 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.6
Carpet 5.3 6.4 5.8 5.9

 Business Employment
 2000 2001
All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.(r)

Automobile

 Yes 7.2 8.3 7.8 9.0
 New 3.0 4.2 3.3 4.1
 Used 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.8
 Uncertain 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1

Home

 Yes 3.2 3.3 3.3 4.0
 New 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.2
 Lived in 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.6
 Uncertain 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2

Major appliances

 Total plans 27.6 29.8 28.1 28.3
 Refrigerator 4.2 4.9 4.1 4.3
 Washing machine 3.0 3.8 4.0 3.8
 TV Set 6.2 7.2 6.7 7.6
 Vacuum Cleaner 4.8 5.1 5.2 4.7
 Range 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.8
 Clothes dryer 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.2
 Air conditioner 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9
Carpet 5.3 5.9 6.2 5.4

 Income
 2001
All series seasonally adjusted Mar.(p)

Automobile

 Yes 7.8
 New 3.8
 Used 3.1
 Uncertain 0.9

Home

 Yes 4.1
 New 1.2
 Lived in 1.8
 Uncertain 1.1

Major appliances

 Total plans 28.9
 Refrigerator 4.0
 Washing machine 3.9
 TV Set 7.3
 Vacuum Cleaner 5.7
 Range 2.6
 Clothes dryer 3.6
 Air conditioner 1.8
Carpet 5.7

Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent


 2000
All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June

Vacation Intended 46.3 44.8

 Destination

 U.S. 39.4 37.6
 Foreign country 9.0 9.2

Means of Travel

 Automobile 24.4 24.1
 Airplane 21.9 21.1
 Other 3.9 3.7

 Business
 2000
All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct.

Vacation Intended 45.7 50.1

 Destination

 U.S. 39.3 42.0
 Foreign country 8.2 9.8

Means of Travel

 Automobile 25.2 27.4
 Airplane 19.3 18.6
 Other 3.5 4.7

 Business Employment
 2000 2001
All series seasonally adjusted Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.(r)

Vacation Intended 48.6 43.1

 Destination

 U.S. 40.2 35.9
 Foreign country 9.3 8.9

Means of Travel

 Automobile 25.8 23.7
 Airplane 19.4 17.4
 Other 4.3 4.1

 Income
 2001
All series seasonally adjusted Mar.(p)

Vacation Intended

 Destination

 U.S.
 Foreign country

Means of Travel

 Automobile
 Airplane
 Other

(p) - preliminary

(r) - revised
Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent

Inflation Interest Rates Stock Prices

 2000
Not Seasonally
Adjusted Mar. Apr. May June July

Inflation Rate

 Average 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.1

Interest Rates

 Higher 73.7 71.5 71.8 70.6 68.7
 Same 21.1 22.6 22.4 23.4 25.8
 Lower 5.2 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.5

Stock Prices

 Increase 39.7 38.2 36.8 38.4 41.4
 Same 39.2 39.3 40.8 39.6 40.8
 Decrease 21.1 22.5 22.4 22.0 17.8

Inflation

 2000
Not Seasonally
Adjusted Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Inflation Rate

 Average 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

Interest Rates

 Higher 61.7 57.8 55.9 57.2 51.3
 Same 29.5 34.1 34.8 33.9 28.3
 Lower 8.8 8.1 9.3 8.9 20.4

Stock Prices

 Increase 38.7 39.5 34.1 36.8 34.1
 Same 39.6 42.4 39.5 39.6 34.1
 Decrease 21.7 18.1 26.4 23.6 31.8

Inflation

 2001
Not Seasonally
Adjusted Jan. Feb.(r) Mar.(p)

Inflation Rate

 Average 4.7 4.7 4.3

Interest Rates

 Higher 39.5 29.4 32.8
 Same 27.5 27.8 29.7
 Lower 33.0 42.8 37.5

Stock Prices

 Increase 30.5 30.5 29.1
 Same 37.0 36.9 36.0
 Decrease 32.5 32.6 34.9
Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = 100

 2000
All series season-
ally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June July

Age of Household Head

 Under 35 145.1 137.0 146.6 139.3 147.4
 35-54 136.1 138.3 143.8 139.9 143.7
 55 and over 131.3 134.9 143.0 136.3 138.3

Household Income

 Under $15,000 105.8 107.2 116.5 113.1 118.3
 $15,000-24,999 127.7 119.3 133.9 124.1 134.4
 $25,000-34,999 141.1 136.2 144.0 136.4 136.4
 $35,000-49,999 139.2 145.4 154.1 142.1 141.7
 $50,000 and over 148.2 151.1 154.0 151.2 155.0

 2000
All series season-
ally adjusted Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Age of Household Head

 Under 35 144.2 149.3 137.3 129.5 129.3
 35-54 139.3 139.6 134.2 132.6 129.7
 55 and over 139.5 141.0 135.7 132.5 125.5

Household Income

 Under $15,000 108.7 122.4 104.0 106.6 103.5
 $15,000-24,999 130.1 135.3 124.4 123.5 115.3
 $25,000-34,999 133.4 135.1 138.7 128.6 125.2
 $35,000-49,999 147.5 145.7 140.2 137.4 129.3
 $50,000 and over 154.1 152.4 147.6 142.8 140.8

 2001 3 mos.
All series season- Percent
ally adjusted Jan. Feb.(r) Mar.(p) Change *

Age of Household Head

 Under 35 123.4 120.8 124.7 -6.8
 35-54 112.6 110.5 115.1 -14.7
 55 and over 113.4 99.7 114.1 -16.9

Household Income

 Under $15,000 94.4 80.1 91.6 -15.3
 $15,000-24,999 108.3 98.4 108.3 -13.3
 $25,000-34,999 113.7 105.3 112.1 -15.6
 $35,000-49,999 122.8 114.8 120.3 -12.1
 $50,000 and over 123.0 120.3 126.7 -14.2
Consumer Confidence by Region

Seasonally unadjusted Index numbers: U.S. Average, 1985 = 100


 2000

 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June

New England

 Consumer Confidence 142.8 132.7 136.5 150.3 142.4
 Index
 Present Situation 184.9 192.2 195.7 195.4 203.3
 Expectations 114.7 93.0 97.0 120.2 101.9

Middle Atlantic

 Consumer Confidence 127.3 122.0 119.3 125.6 122.7
 Index
 Present Situation 153.0 158.8 154.5 161.7 160.8
 Expectations 110.1 97.5 95.9 101.5 97.3

East North Central

 Consumer Confidence 151.1 140.2 148.7 148.0 138.7
 Index
 Present Situation 193.9 191.7 192.4 191.2 187.9
 Expectations 122.5 105.8 119.6 119.2 105.9

West North Central

 Consumer Confidence 141.6 144.6 137.7 142.1 130.2
 Index
 Present Situation 181.5 189.0 187.7 191.4 191.8
 Expectations 115.0 115.0 104.4 109.2 89.1

South Atlantic

 Consumer Confidence 145.6 143.1 140.8 148.9 143.9
 Index
 Present Situation 184.5 186.7 175.8 185.0 185.2
 Expectations 119.6 114.1 117.5 124.9 116.3

East South Central

 Consumer Confidence 136.4 133.4 126.7 136.9 134.0
 Index
 Present Situation 161.9 174.8 155.5 167.7 164.6
 Expectations 119.4 105.8 107.5 116.3 113.5

West South Central

 Consumer Confidence 137.2 140.2 139.1 142.3 144.7
 Index
 Present Situation 158.4 174.3 175.1 179.4 178.3
 Expectations 123.0 117.6 115.0 117.7 122.3

Mountain

 Consumer Confidence 144.4 130.8 142.3 145.7 144.8
 Index
 Present Situation 174.6 163.7 183.1 177.9 178.1
 Expectations 124.2 109.0 115.1 124.3 122.7

Consumer

 Consumer Confidence 144.8 141.0 135.8 143.1 135.4
 Index
 Present Situation 179.2 171.1 179.2 185.8 180.0
 Expectations 121.8 120.9 106.9 114.7 105.7


 2000

 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.

New England

 Consumer Confidence 135.4 143.9 136.5 140.7 133.4
 Index
 Present Situation 196.9 195.0 192.8 195.5 198.2
 Expectations 94.4 109.8 99.0 104.1 90.2

Middle Atlantic

 Consumer Confidence 130.4 130.7 129.2 124.4 121.0
 Index
 Present Situation 173.9 168.3 169.1 163.4 165.6
 Expectations 101.4 105.6 102.7 98.4 91.2

East North Central

 Consumer Confidence 140.2 136.2 147.9 142.1 134.6
 Index
 Present Situation 194.7 188.4 196.6 186.5 192.2
 Expectations 103.8 101.3 115.5 112.5 96.3

West North Central

 Consumer Confidence 137.4 136.8 141.3 134.3 128.2
 Index
 Present Situation 190.0 187.8 187.7 185.4 182.9
 Expectations 102.3 102.7 110.3 100.2 91.7

South Atlantic

 Consumer Confidence 147.2 150.6 149.4 144.4 142.1
 Index
 Present Situation 189.4 189.1 190.4 188.3 188.8
 Expectations 119.1 124.9 122.1 115.2 110.9

East South Central

 Consumer Confidence 138.7 125.5 137.7 135.6 123.4
 Index
 Present Situation 182.4 160.4 169.2 172.5 163.3
 Expectations 109.6 102.3 116.7 110.9 96.8

West South Central

 Consumer Confidence 149.1 138.3 148.1 134.9 135.6
 Index
 Present Situation 184.9 172.5 187.4 171.4 176.1
 Expectations 125.2 115.5 122.0 110.5 108.6

Mountain

 Consumer Confidence 143.7 143.2 145.0 147.4 139.7
 Index
 Present Situation 183.3 181.4 185.2 182.7 179.3
 Expectations 117.3 117.7 118.2 123.9 113.4

Consumer

 Consumer Confidence 140.9 134.3 137.7 138.4 136.9
 Index
 Present Situation 182.6 176.6 178.0 182.8 185.1
 Expectations 113.1 106.2 110.9 108.9 104.8


 2000 2001

 Dec. Jan. Feb. (r) Mar. (p)

New England

 Consumer Confidence 125.9 111.9 115.4 117.1
 Index
 Present Situation 195.6 173.9 189.6 182.0
 Expectations 79.5 70.5 66.0 73.9

Middle Atlantic

 Consumer Confidence 114.9 107.0 101.8 98.9
 Index
 Present Situation 164.7 160.7 138.5 136.8
 Expectations 81.8 71.2 77.4 73.6

East North Central

 Consumer Confidence 126.3 106.8 101.9 113.3
 Index
 Present Situation 186.3 168.5 158.9 161.0
 Expectations 86.3 65.7 64.0 81.5

West North Central

 Consumer Confidence 129.2 115.9 107.3 119.9
 Index
 Present Situation 183.3 170.3 163.8 171.5
 Expectations 93.2 79.7 69.6 85.6

South Atlantic

 Consumer Confidence 132.4 126.7 118.3 127.2
 Index
 Present Situation 179.8 175.7 174.5 173.2
 Expectations 100.9 94.0 80.9 96.5

East South Central

 Consumer Confidence 120.4 120.2 98.1 107.4
 Index
 Present Situation 151.4 152.8 138.2 140.2
 Expectations 99.8 98.5 71.4 85.5

West South Central

 Consumer Confidence 122.6 126.0 122.4 125.5
 Index
 Present Situation 163.7 161.8 165.3 165.7
 Expectations 95.3 102.2 93.8 98.8

Mountain

 Consumer Confidence 137.0 119.8 122.3 132.2
 Index
 Present Situation 185.2 163.6 170.0 171.0
 Expectations 104.9 90.7 90.4 106.3

Consumer

 Consumer Confidence 128.3 117.3 110.1 117.0
 Index
 Present Situation 183.5 173.2 165.8 164.7
 Expectations 91.5 80.0 73.0 85.3

 3-MONTH AVG.
 Jan.,Feb.,Mar.
 Percent
 2000 2001 Change

New England

 Consumer Confidence 140.4 114.8 -18.3
 Index
 Present Situation 190.0 181.8 -4.3
 Expectations 107.4 70.1 -34.7

Middle Atlantic

 Consumer Confidence 127.5 102.6 -19.6
 Index
 Present Situation 160.1 145.3 -9.3
 Expectations 105.8 74.1 -30.0

East North Central

 Consumer Confidence 146.6 107.3 -26.8
 Index
 Present Situation 192.3 162.8 -15.3
 Expectations 116.2 70.4 -39.4

West North Central

 Consumer Confidence 141.6 114.4 -19.2
 Index
 Present Situation 184.6 168.5 -8.7
 Expectations 113.0 78.3 -30.7

South Atlantic

 Consumer Confidence 146.1 124.1 -15.1
 Index
 Present Situation 185.1 174.4 -5.8
 Expectations 120.1 90.5 -24.7

East South Central

 Consumer Confidence 138.1 108.6 -21.4
 Index
 Present Situation 169.7 143.7 -15.3
 Expectations 117.0 85.1 -27.2

West South Central

 Consumer Confidence 141.8 124.7 -12.1
 Index
 Present Situation 168.6 164.3 -2.6
 Expectations 124.0 98.3 -20.8

Mountain

 Consumer Confidence 138.6 124.8 -10.0
 Index
 Present Situation 170.6 168.2 -1.4
 Expectations 117.2 95.8 -18.3

Consumer

 Consumer Confidence 144.8 114.8 -20.7
 Index
 Present Situation 176.9 167.9 -5.1
 Expectations 123.4 79.4 -35.6

* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
the same period year. Regional data are not adjusted for seasonal
variation.
COPYRIGHT 2001 Conference Board, Inc.
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Article Details
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Author:Franco, Lynn
Publication:Consumer Confidence Survey
Article Type:Statistical Data Included
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Apr 1, 2001
Words:3776
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