Printer Friendly

China's new provincial leaders: major reshuffling before the 17th National Party Congress.

This article surveys the profiles of current provincial leaders in order to determine the possible provincial reshuffling that may occur as a result of on-going elections for provincial Party committees in China. This is a politically significant exercise because the two chief leaders of each provincial unit--the provincial Party Secretary and the provincial governor--will likely enter the 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party in 2007 as full members. The stakes are even higher for provincial units with a seat in the Politburo because the Party Secretary of the provincial unit will probably enter the 17th Politburo.

**********

As a precursor to the 17th National Party Congress in 2007, elections for provincial Party committees in China have been scheduled for the second half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. These elections are politically significant because the top Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership will select the firsts among equals in terms of the two chief leaders of each provincial unit--the provincial Party Secretary and the provincial governor--and these leaders will likely enter the 17th Central Committee of the CCP as full members. (1) The stakes are even higher for provincial units with a seat in the Politburo because the Party Secretary of the provincial unit will likely enter the 17th Politburo.

This article surveys the profiles of current provincial leaders and speculates about who will be China's new provincial leaders over the next six years. It also considers the political implications of the provincial reshuffling for a new line-up of the central leadership at the 17th National Party Congress.

Selecting Provincial Party Bosses

Provincial units have served as a training ground for national leaders. (2) These leaders are among the most important players in Chinese politics. (3) Yet in order to compete nationally at the 17th National Congress of the CCP in 2007, they must first secure their positions in the provincial units through provincial Party committee elections.

The provincial Party committees, as well as Party committees at the municipal, county and township levels, are elected once every five years. China is expected to complete its elections of provincial Party committees by the end of June 2007 in preparation for the 17th National Congress of the CCP.

According to the Constitution of the CCP, the Party committee of a provincial unit is elected by the Party congress of the provincial unit. (4) But candidates for top leadership positions such as the provincial Party Secretary and Deputy Secretaries are usually pre-selected by the Central Organisation Department of the CCP. Henceforth, the provincial Party committee elections will also be selecting candidates for seats on the 17th Central Committee of the CCP.

Which Provincial Party Secretaries Will Be Stepping Down?

CCP leader exits have been more or less institutionalised since the 1990s. There are two basic rules. The first rule is age limit. Chief provincial/ministerial leaders such as provincial Party Secretaries should retire at the age of 65.

According to this rule, four provincial leaders should step down (see Table 1). Zhang Lichang, Party Secretary of Tianjin and a member of the Politburo, reached 65 in July 2004. (5) By July 2006, he will have passed the retirement age by two years. He will definitely retire as Party Secretary of Tianjin. Cao Bochun, Party Secretary of Guangxi, will reach 65 in November 2006. (6) Liu Qi, Party Secretary of Beijing and a member of the Politburo, will reach 65 in November 2007. (7) Finally, Wang Yunkun, Party Secretary of Jilin, will be 65 in December 2007. (8)

The second rule governing the political exits is ten-year tenure. A political leader who has stayed in one position for ten years can no longer stay in the same position. (9) Thus, three provincial Party Secretaries will have to leave their current posts. Wang Lequan, Party Secretary of Xinjiang and a member of the Politburo, has been in his position for more than a decade. (10) Wang is usually considered a member of the Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL) Group because he once worked as Deputy Secretary of the Shandong Provincial Communist Youth League Committee between March 1982 and September 1986. He became Acting Party Secretary of Xinjiang in September 1994 and Party Secretary of Xinjiang in December 1995. He reached his ten-year limit in December 2005.

Cao Bochun, Party Secretary of Guangxi, has been in his position since July 1997 and will therefore reach his ten-year limit in July 2007. But since he will reach retirement age earlier, in November 2006, he will likely retire and exit before that date. Finally, Li Jianguo, Party Secretary of Shaanxi, will reach his ten-year limit in August 2007, though he will not reach retirement age until April 2011. (11)

Candidate Line-Up for Provincial Party Secretary Vacancies

The two Party Secretary posts in Beijing and Tianjin are of greater significance than the other three because Beijing and Tianjin both enjoy elite provincial status where Party Secretaries are concurrently members of the Politburo. Candidates for these posts are thus also concurrently candidates for membership in the 17th Politburo. (12)

Wang Qishan, Mayor and Deputy Secretary of Beijing, is likely to replace Liu Qi as next Party Secretary of Beijing. (13) Wang is usually regarded as a Princeling (14) because his father-in-law was the late Yao Yilin (1917-94), former standing member of the Politburo and Vice Premier. (15) Wang has accumulated extensive experience in both central and local governments. He has served as Vice Governor and Governor of the Chinese People's Construction Bank, Vice Governor of the Chinese People's Bank (the central bank), Vice Governor of Guangdong, Director of the Office of Economic Systems Reform of the State Council and Party Secretary of Hainan. He was an alternate member of the 15th Central Committee of the CCP and is a full member of the 16th Central Committee of the CCP. He was transferred to Beijing in April 2003 during the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic to replace negligent Mayor of Beijing, Meng Xuenong. Wang will likely become a member of the 17th Politburo if he replaces Liu Qi as Party Secretary of Beijing.

There are two potential candidates for Zhang Lichang's replacement in Tianjin. Dai Xianglong, Mayor and Deputy Secretary of Tianjin, is a good candidate. (16) Before he went to Tianjin, Dai was a banker. He had been Vice Governor of the Chinese Agricultural Bank, CEO of the Chinese Communications Bank and Vice Governor of the Chinese People's Bank. He was appointed as Governor of the Chinese People's Bank in June 1995 and was reported to have been nominated as a candidate for a membership in the 16th Politburo. (17) He ended up as a full member of the 16th Central Committee of the CCP and was transferred to Tianjin in December 2002 as Acting Mayor. He is likely to replace Zhang Lichang as Party Secretary of Tianjin and to enter the 17th Politburo in the fall of 2007.

Li Jianguo, currently Party Secretary of Shaanxi, is also a good candidate for the post of Tianjin's Party Secretary. Li was Deputy Secretary of Tianjin for five years from August 1992 to August 1997 before his transfer to Shaanxi. Since he will have to leave his current post, he might go back to Tianjin as Party Secretary with a potential opportunity to enter the Politburo. But Dai Xianglong has a better chance because he is in Tianjin right now while Li is in Shaanxi.

Liu Qibao has already replaced Cao Bochun as Party Secretary of Guangxi. According to a report published on 29 June 2006, the Central Committee of the CCP decided to appoint Liu Qibao as Party Secretary of Guangxi. (18) Liu, a native of Susong, Anhui, turned 53 in 2006 and is a member

of the CCYL Group. He worked in the Anhui Provincial CYL Committee for five years (1980-5) as Deputy Director of the Propaganda Department, Director of the Propaganda Department and Deputy Secretary and Secretary. He also worked in the CYL Central Committee for about eight years (1985-93). He did not have direct work contact with Hu Jintao in the CYL system because he went to the CYL Central Committee after Hu had already left. Liu was appointed as Deputy Secretary of Guangxi in September 2000 and has been in that capacity for almost six years.

Yuan Chunqing, another member of the CCYL Group, is likely to replace Li Jianguo as Party Secretary of Shaanxi, even though he has recently been appointed as Acting Governor of Shaanxi. (19) Yuan, a native of Hanshou, Hunan, turned 54 in 2006 and is a graduate of Beijing University. He worked in the CYL Central Committee for 17 years (1980-97). (20) He probably had direct contact with Hu Jintao, though their relationship then may not have been very close because Yuan's position in the CYL Central Committee then was too low. Hu Jintao was a member of the Secretariat of the CYL Central Committee between 1982 and 1985, while Yuan's posts were Deputy Head of a section, Director of the Student Federation Office of the School Department and Deputy Director of the School Department. Yuan was later transferred to Shaanxi as Deputy Secretary in March 2001 and became concurrent Party Secretary of Xi'an, Shaanxi, in January 2004. He obtained a doctoral degree in management from Hunan University in July 1997 and received a certificate for post-doctoral studies from Beijing University in May 2001. He is an alternate member of the 16th Central Committee of the CCP. The 25th Meeting of the Standing Committee of the Shaanxi 10th Provincial People's Congress decided on 1 June 2006 to appoint Yuan Chunqing as Vice Governor and Acting Governor of Shaanxi. (21)

Nie Weiguo, an alternate member of the 16th Central Committee of the CCP and Deputy Secretary of Xinjiang, is a good candidate for the post of Xinjiang's Party Secretary. A native of Chongqing, Nie turned 54 in 2006. (22) He has spent most of his working life in Sichuan, starting as an educated youth (zhishi qingnian) in Nanchuan, Sichuan in January 1969. He worked in the Peilin Prefecture (later Peilin Municipality and then Peilin District) for 17 years (1983-2000) and served as Deputy Secretary of Chongqing for three years (2002-5). He was transferred to Xinjiang in March 2005 as Political Commissar of the Xinjiang Construction Corps, Board Chairman of China New Construction Corporation and Deputy Secretary of Xinjiang. (23) Notably, his predecessor, Chen Demin, was only a standing member of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Regional Party Committee, but Nie was made a Deputy Secretary of Xinjiang. It is also possible that the Party Centre will transfer another individual from elsewhere to replace Wang Lequan. But whoever is the new Party Secretary of Xinjiang is unlikely to obtain a seat in the 17th Politburo. Wang Lequan's career path is probably unique to him.

Following the common practice of the CCP, Wang Min, Governor of Jilin, is expected to replace Wang Yunkun as Party Secretary of Jilin. A native of Huainan, Anhui, Wang turned 56 in 2006. (24) Like Xu Kuangdi, former Mayor of Shanghai, Wang is an academic-cum-politician. He obtained a doctoral degree in machine building from Nanjing Aerospace Institute and later served as Vice President of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA). Wang was transferred to the Jiangsu Provincial Government in July 1994 as Assistant Governor. He was promoted to Vice Governor in December 1996 and appointed Party Secretary of Suzhou, Jiangsu in May 2002. Two years later, he was transferred to Jilin as Deputy Secretary of Jilin in October 2004. The Jilin Provincial People's Congress Standing Committee appointed him on 30 October 2004 as Vice Governor and Acting Governor of Jilin, replacing retiring Hong Hu (son of Hong Xuezhi). He was made Governor of Jilin on 29 January 2005. Since the new leadership under Hu Jintao has targeted the Northeast Region including Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning as the new engine of economic growth, Wang's experience in Jiangsu will continue to be useful in producing new success stories for Jilin.

Finally, quite surprisingly, Chen Liangyu, Party Secretary of Shanghai and a member of the Politburo, was removed from office on 24 September 2006 for his alleged involvement in a much publicised corruption scandal in Shanghai. Chen is a member of the Shanghai Gang and a protege of Huang Ju, Vice Premier and a standing member of the Politburo. (25) A native of Ningbo, Zhejiang, Chen turned 60 in 2006. (26) He did not join the CCP until April 1980 but enjoyed rapid promotions in the 1990s and early years of the 21st century under Huang Ju, the Party boss of Shanghai from 1994-2002. He was promoted to Deputy Secretary of Shanghai in December 1992, only two months after he had been appointed Deputy Secretary-General of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee. When Xu Kuangdi, the former Mayor of Shanghai, was ejected from Shanghai in December 2001 due to his conflict with Huang Ju, Chen was made Acting Mayor of Shanghai. Within 10 months, Chen was further promoted to be Party Secretary of Shanghai when Huang Ju was transferred to Beijing and entered the 16th Politburo one month later, in November 2002. Since July 2003, there have been rumours about Chen's possible transfer when he reportedly challenged Premier Wen Jiabao at a Politburo meeting over national economic policies. (27) However, Chen was discovered to have been involved in a corruption case in which a government official--Zhu Junyi, Director of the Shanghai Bureau of Labour and Social Security--reportedly transferred three billion yuan (USD374 million) from the social security fund to a businessman--Zhang Rongkun, the owner of a private investment company--for purchasing a highway. (28) In addition, Chen is said to have helped business people in their unlawful pursuits, protected members of his staff who had serious disciplinary and legal issues and to have sought illicit interests on behalf of his relatives. (29) Chen was stripped of all of his posts in Shanghai and his membership in the Politburo and the Central Committee was also suspended.

Han Zheng, Mayor and Deputy Secretary of Shanghai, was appointed Acting Party Secretary of Shanghai. (30) A native of Cixi, Zhejiang, he was born in 1954. (31) As he was once Deputy Secretary and Secretary of the Shanghai Communist Youth League Committee, Han has been considered a member of the CCYL Group as well as a member of the Shanghai Gang. He became a Vice Mayor of Shanghai at the age of 44 in February 1998 and was made Mayor of Shanghai in February 2003. Han is currently acceptable to both Hu Jintao and the Shanghai Gang as Acting Party Secretary of Shanghai but it remains to be seen whether he will become Party Secretary of Shanghai. (32)

Balance of Factional Power among Provincial Party Secretaries

There are currently 13 provincial Party Secretaries with factional identities (see Table 1). Three are princelings: Bai Keming of Hebei, Xi Jinping of Zhejiang and Yu Zhengsheng of Hubei. Three are Shanghai Gang members: Chen Liangyu of Shanghai, Meng Jianzhu of Jiangxi and Xu Guangchun of Henan. Seven are CCYL Group members: Zhang Baoshun of Shanxi, Li Keqiang of Liaoning, Qian Yunlu of Heilongjiang, Li Yuanchao of Jiangsu, Wang Yang of Chongqing, Zhang Qingli of Tibet and Wang Lequan of Xinjiang.

If this author's predictions were to come true, the new provincial Party leadership would include 15 individuals with factional identities. In addition to the original three princelings, there would be one more princeling Party Secretary: Wang Qishan of Beijing. As one Shanghai Gang member has been replaced by another Shanghai Gang member, the Shanghai Gang will still keep three members as Party Secretaries.

CCYL Group provincial Party Secretaries may increase from seven to nine with some modi.cations. Zhang Baoshun, Li Keqiang, Li Yuanchao, Qian Yunlu, Wang Yang and Zhang Qingli would stay on in their respective positions. Liu Qibao has already replaced Cao Bochun (a non-CCYL Group member) as Party Secretary of Guangxi and Yuan Chunqing will likely replace Li Jianguo (a non-CCYL Group member) as Party Secretary of Shaanxi. But Wang Lequan is likely to be replaced by a non-CCYL Group member, Nie Weiguo. Finally, Han Zheng is also a member of the CCYL Group and his promotion to the post of Acting Party Secretary of Shanghai at the expense of Chen Liangyu is probably partly due to his dual membership in two factional groups.

On the whole, the Shanghai Gang has suffered serious damage with Chen Liangyu's removal; the princelings have made some gains; and the CCYL Group has garnered greater prominence.

Selecting China's New Provincial Governors

The next round of elections for China's provincial governors and vice governors will not start until 2007, but the selection of provincial governors will be completed by July 2007 as a result of the provincial Party committee elections. This is because a governor is usually the No. 2 person in the province and concurrent Deputy Secretary of the provincial Party committee. As a common CCP practice, each provincial unit has two full members on the Central Committee of the CCP. These two full members are usually the provincial Party Secretary and the governor.

According to the Organic Law of the Local People's Congresses and People's Governments of Various Levels of the People's Republic of China, governors (including mayors of centrally administered municipalities and chairmen of autonomous regions) and vice governors (including vice mayors of centrally administered municipalities and vice chairmen of autonomous regions) are elected by their respective people's congresses (Item 5, Article 8, Chapter 2). (33)

However, as in the case of provincial Party Secretaries, candidates for provincial governors are usually pre-selected by the Central Organisation Department of the CCP. Therefore, future governors will mostly come from among the current Deputy Secretaries and standing members unless they are transferred from elsewhere.

Which Governors Might Step Down?

Some of the current governors are likely to step down for four reasons. First, as in the case of provincial Party Secretaries, they should retire at the age of 65. Four governors will reach retirement age within a year (see Table 3): Huang Zhiquan of Jiangxi (February 2007), (34) Zhang Zhongwei of Sichuan (February 2007), (35) Xu Rongkai of Yunnan (February 2007) (36) and Shi Xiushi of Guizhou (July 2007). (37)

Second, as in the case of provincial Party Secretaries, governors must leave their current posts when they have served in one post of the same locality for ten years. Ma Qizhi, Chairman of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, began his tenure as Acting Chairman of Ningxia in December 1997 and as Chairman of Ningxia in May 1998. (38) He will reach his ten-year service limit in December 2007 if his acting tenure is counted. But even if his tenure as Chairman of Ningxia beginning in May 1998 is considered, he will still have to leave his current post in May 2008. Therefore, he is likely to be replaced.

Third, when some of the current governors move up to become Party Secretaries, their vacancies will have to be filled. Beijing, Tianjin, Jilin and Shaanxi may present such opportunities because Mayor Wang Qishan of Beijing, Mayor Dai Xianglong of Tianjin, Governor Wang Min of Jilin and Acting Governor Yuan Chunqing of Shaanxi are likely to become Party Secretaries of their respective provincial units. This is also true of Shanghai because Mayor Han Zheng has already replaced Chen Liangyu as the Party boss. Moreover, as Governor Lu Hao of Gansu replaced Su Rong as Party Secretary of Gansu in July 2006, he will need a replacement as well. (39)

Finally, some governors might be replaced due to their poor performances. One case in point is Governor Zhang Zuoji of Heilongjiang. Although he will not reach 65 until 2010 and his ten-year service limit until 2013, he may possibly step down to take responsibility for a number of serious accidents that have taken place during his tenure as Governor. In one case in June 2005, at least 117 people including 105 children died as a result of a flood. (40)

Candidates for New Vacancies

As a result of the four reasons mentioned above, there will be 13 vacancies in three centrally administered municipalities, nine provinces and one autonomous region (see Table 4). If Mayor Wang Qishan of Beijing is promoted to Party Secretary of Beijing, the capital city will need a new mayor. There are several candidates for the post. First, Zhai Hongxiang (1946-), currently Vice Mayor of Beijing, is a good candidate. (41) She is the Executive Vice Mayor and the only standing member of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee among the vice mayors of Beijing. However, she reached age 60, the retirement age for vice mayors, in June 2006 and may have to retire soon.

Another good candidate is Vice Mayor Liu Jingmin (1952-). Liu is listed as the No. 2 Vice Mayor of Beijing. A native of Dingzhou, Hebei, he joined the CCP in 1972. He worked as Director of the Propaganda Department and Deputy Secretary in the Beijing CYL Committee. (42) He became a vice mayor of Beijing in January 1998 and has been in that post for more than eight years. As he was only 54 in 2006, he could work as Vice Mayor for another six years. If elected as Mayor of Beijing in 2007, he would be able to work for two complete terms (i.e., ten years).

If Mayor Dai Xianglong of Tianjin were to move up as Party Secretary of Tianjin, his successor would likely be Huang Xingguo (1954-). A native of Xiangshan, Zhejiang, Huang joined the CCP in 1973 and is currently an alternate member of the 16th Central Committee. (43) He was Vice Governor of Zhejiang for five years between 1998 and 2003 and a standing member of the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee and Party Secretary of Ningbo during the same period. He was transferred to Tianjin in November 2003 as Deputy Secretary and was appointed as Vice Mayor of Tianjin the following month. (44) He is the Executive Vice Mayor of Tianjin and would succeed Dai as Mayor of Tianjin.

If Governor Wang Min is made Party Secretary of Jilin, there would be two candidates for the post of Jilin Governor. Lin Yanzhi (1948-), a native of Heilongjiang and son of Lin Feng (former President of the Central Party School), would be a good candidate. (45) A graduate of Qinghua University, Lin worked as Secretary of the Beijing CYL Committee between 1984 and 1987. He was a standing member of the Henan Provincial Party Committee for five years from 1995 to 2000 and has been Deputy Secretary of Jilin since October 2000. However, he has no experience in government.

Another good candidate is Tian Xueren (1947-). A native of Kuandian, Liaoning, Tian is also a former CYL cadre who served as Deputy Secretary of the Jilin Provincial CYL Committee. (46) He has spent his entire career in Jilin, climbing the ladder of success in several cities such as Tonghua, Changchun and Jilin, as well as in the provincial government. He was appointed Vice Governor in December 2004 (47) and has been the Executive Vice Governor of Jilin and a standing member of the Jilin Provincial Party Committee. (48)

If for some reason Governor Zhang Zuoji of Heilongjiang steps down, his possible successor might be Li Zhanshu (1950-). A native of Pingshan, Hebei, Li is also a former CYL cadre since he was Secretary of the Hebei Provincial CYL Committee between 1986 and 1990. (49) He was a standing member of the Hebei Provincial Party Committee between 1993 and 1998 before he was transferred to Shaanxi in 1998. He was Party Secretary of Xi'an from January 2002 to December 2003 and Deputy Secretary of Shaanxi from May 2000 to December 2003. He was transferred to Heilongjiang as Deputy Secretary in December 2003 and appointed Vice Governor of Heilongjiang in October 2004. (50) He is an alternate member of the 16th Central Committee and has been the Executive Vice Governor of Heilongjiang.

Since Governor Huang Zhiquan of Jiangxi will reach 65 in February 2007, he should be replaced. His successor could be Wu Xinxiong (1949-), a native of Jiangying, Jiangsu. (51) Wu worked in his home province of Jiangsu for more than three decades. He worked in Jiangying County (and later Jiangying Municipality) as Deputy Head, Deputy Secretary, Vice Mayor and Mayor from 1983 to 1992 and served in Wuxi Municipality as Vice Mayor, Acting Mayor and Mayor from 1992 to 2001. He was transferred to Nanchang, Jiangxi as Party Secretary in June 2001, two months after Meng Jianzhu was appointed as Party Secretary of Jiangxi. Wu is currently Executive Vice Governor and Deputy Secretary of Jiangxi. With Meng's support, he is very likely to succeed Huang Zhiquan as Jiangxi's next governor.

Governor Zhang Zhongwei of Sichuan will reach 65 in February 2007 and is likely to step down soon. One of his potential successors is Jiang Jufeng (1948-), a native of Zhuji, Zhejiang. Other than his university days at Fudan University in Shanghai between 1978 and 1982, Jiang did not leave his home province of Zhejiang until 2002. (52) He was Party Secretary of Wenzhou from June 1998 to March 2002 and has been Deputy Secretary of Sichuan since March 2002 and Vice Governor of Sichuan since April 2002. He will be able to serve for one complete term of five years once elected Governor of Sichuan in 2007.

Governor Shi Xiushi of Guizhou will reach 65 in July 2007 and is unlikely to stay on in his post. According to an announcement on 30 June 2006, he was removed from his post as Deputy Secretary of Guizhou and was replaced by Lin Shusen (1946-), Party Secretary of Guangzhou. (53) This is a clear indication that Lin will become Governor of Guizhou. (54) A native of Shantou, Guangdong, Lin spent most of his working life in Guangdong until July 2006. (55) He worked in Huizhou, Guangdong, for about a decade from 1983 to 1992, served as Deputy Secretary-General and Director of the Planning Commission of the Guangdong Government in the early 1990s and was appointed as Deputy Secretary of Guangzhou, Guangdong in July 1996. He was Acting Mayor of Guangzhou from August 1996 to March 1997, Mayor of Guangzhou from March 1997 to February 2003, Party Secretary of Guangzhou from October 2002 to June 2006 and Chairman of the Guangzhou People's Congress Standing Committee from March 2003 to June 2006. He will reach 60 in December 2006, the retirement age for deputy provincial leaders, but will be able to serve one five-year term as a governor. He was appointed as Acting Governor of Guizhou in July 2006 and is probably expected to bring his experience as the chief leader of Guangzhou to Guizhou. He is an alternate member of the 16th Central Committee and will likely become a full member of the 17th Central Committee.

Similarly, Governor Xu Rongkai of Yunnan will reach 65 in February 2007 and will likely step down soon. His replacement could be Qin Guangrong (1950-), a native of Yongzhou, Hunan. (56) Qin is a former CYL cadre, having served as Deputy Secretary of the Hunan Provincial CYL Committee in the 1980s. He was Party Secretary of Changsha, the capital of Hunan, from June 1993 to January 1999 and was transferred to Yunnan as a standing member of the Yunnan Provincial Party Committee and Secretary of the Political and Legal Commission in January 1999. He was elected as Vice Governor of Yunnan in January 2003 and has been Executive Vice Governor and Deputy Secretary of Yunnan. He was an alternate member of the 15th Central Committee and is an alternate member of the 16th Central Committee.

If Acting Governor Yuan Chunqing of Shaanxi were to move up as Party Secretary of Shaanxi, his successor is likely to be Zhao Zhengyong (1951-). A native of Ma'anshan, Anhui, Zhao is also a former CYL cadre at the local level. (57) He served consecutively as Deputy Secretary of the Ma'anshan Iron and Steel Corporation CYL Committee and Secretary of the Ma'anshan Municipal CYL Committee. He was Secretary of the Political and Legal Commission of Anhui before he was transferred to Shaanxi in June 2001. He was appointed Vice Governor of Shaanxi in January 2005 and has been Executive Vice Governor of Shaanxi and a standing member of the Shaanxi Provincial Party Committee. He turned 56 in 2006 and will likely work for another nine years before his retirement.

Since Chairman Ma Qizhi of Ningxia will reach his ten-year service limit in May 2008, he is likely to be replaced. Wang Zhengwei (1957-), a native of Tongxin, Ningxia, is a good candidate for Ma's replacement. Wang is a typical cadre of Mishu (assistant) background. (58) He worked as a Mishu in the General Office of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Regional Party Committee for five years from December 1983 to January 1989 and was appointed Executive Deputy Director of the Propaganda Department of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Regional Party Committee in December 1997. He served as Party Secretary of Yinchuan, Ningxia from April 2001 to December 2003 and has been Executive Vice Chairman of Ningxia since January 2004. He is a standing member of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Regional Party Committee and is a full member of the 16th Central Committee. (59) He was only 49 in 2006 and has a bright political future ahead.

As Governor Lu Hao of Gansu has already moved up as concurrent Party Secretary of Gansu, a replacement for his position as Governor will be needed. A possible candidate is Xu Shaosheng. A native of Rudong, Jiangsu, Xu (1953-) spent his early career in his home province. (60) Starting off as the head of a production team in his native county in the early 1970s, Xu rose to become Party Secretary of Rudong in the early 1990s. He became a standing member of the Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee and concurrently Party Secretary of the Suqian Municipality in 2000. He was transferred to Gansu as a standing member and Director of the Organisation Department of the Gansu Provincial Party Committee in September 2001 and entered the 16th Central Committee as an alternate member in November 2002. He was appointed Vice Governor of Gansu in January 2004 and has been the Executive Vice Governor of the province.

Moreover, two recent transfers have also affected provincial leadership. Zhou Bohua, Governor and Deputy Secretary of Hunan, was relieved of his positions in the Hunan Provincial Party Committee in September 2006 (61) and his resignation as Governor of Hunan was accepted by the 23rd Meeting of the Standing Committee of the 10th Hunan Provincial People's Congress on 29 September 2006. (62) Zhou (1948-), a native of Xiangtan, Hunan, will be moved away from his home province for the first time and will reportedly replace his fellow home-province man, retiring Wang Zhongfu (1941-) as the head of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce. (63) Zhou Qiang (1960-), the First Secretary of the CYL Central Committee, was transferred to Hunan instead. (64) A native of Huangmei, Hubei, Zhou has been groomed as a future national leader. (65) One of the youngest members of the 16th Central Committee of the CCP, Zhou has served as First Secretary of the CYL Central Committee since June 1998. He worked under Li Keqiang, the then First Secretary of the CYL Central Committee and currently Party Secretary of Liaoning, for two and a half years (November 1995-June 1998) and with Liu Peng (currently Director of the General Administration of Sports), Yuan Chunqing (currently Acting Governor of Shaanxi) and Jiang Daming (currently Deputy Secretary of Shandong and concurrent Party Secretary of Jinan) in the Secretariat of the CYL Central Committee. Zhou was appointed Vice Governor and Acting Governor of Hunan. (66) At 46, he is currently the youngest governor in China.

Ji Yunshi (1945-), Governor of Hebei, has recently been transferred to Beijing. (67) He has replaced retiring Wan Xueyuan (1941-) as Vice Minister of Personnel and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs. Wan, a native of Huanggang, Hubei, is a member of the Shanghai Gang and once served as Governor of Zhejiang. Ji, a former CYL cadre and once Governor of Jiangsu, is probably taking this position with a ministerial rank as Wan did. (68) With Ji's departure, Hebei will have to find a new governor. (69)

A possible candidate is Guo Gengmao (1950-), currently Executive Vice Governor of Hebei and a standing member of the Hebei Provincial Party Committee. (70) A native of Jizhou, Hebei, Guo has so far worked in his home province for his entire career. He received some training at Beijing University in the early 1980s, was Head and Party Secretary of Zaoqiang County in the 1980s, Vice Mayor and Mayor of Xingtai Municipality in the early 1990s and became Vice Governor of Hebei in January 1998. He is an alternate member of the 16th Central Committee of the CCP and has been the Executive Vice Governor of Hebei. Unless a new governor is transferred from without, Guo will likely be appointed as Acting Governor of Hebei, then later Governor of Hebei and would thereby enter the 17th Central Committee as a full member.

Finally, as Han Zheng is currently both Mayor and Acting Party Secretary of Shanghai, the Party Centre needs to find a replacement for one of his posts. If Han is to become Party Secretary of Shanghai, then there will be a need for a new mayor of Shanghai. It is also likely that a new Party Secretary of Shanghai is to be transferred from either Beijing or somewhere else and that Han Zheng continues to be Mayor of Shanghai.

Some Characteristics of the New Governors

Table 4 provides some particular characteristics of the new governors. First, people of Jiangsu and Zhejiang origins are going to be prominent. Four governors and governors-to-be are from Jiangsu: Governor Yu Youjun of Shanxi, Governor-to-be Wu Xinxiong of Jiangxi, Governor-to-be Xu Shousheng of Gansu and Governor Han Yuqun of Shandong. Four governors and governors-to-be are from Zhejiang: Mayor-to-be Huang Xingguo of Tianjin, Mayor Han Zheng of Shanghai, Governor Lu Zushan of Zhejiang and Governor-to-be Jiang Jufeng of Sichuan. Second, cadres of Hebei origin will also become visible. Liu Jingmin of Beijing, Guo Gengmao of Hebei and Li Zhanshu of Heilongjiang are all from Hebei.

Third, the number of people with experience in managing coastal areas will increase in the new provincial leadership. Among these future governors, Huang Xingguo and Jiang Jufeng have both worked in Zhejiang while Lin Shusen has worked in Guangdong and Wu Xinxiong and Xu Shousheng have all worked in Jiangsu. It is hoped these new governors will bring their experience inland to help in the development of these areas.

Finally, CYL cadres may continue to be prominent among governors. Currently, nine governors have CYL background (see Table 3): Ji Yunshi of Hebei, Yang Jing of Inner Mongolia, Han Zheng of Shanghai (who is currently also a Shanghai Gang member), Huang Xiaojing of Fujian, Li Chengyu of Henan, Huang Huahua of Guangdong, Yuan Chunqing of Shaanxi, Song Xiuyan of Qinghai and Ma Qizhi of Ningxia. The number of CYL cadres may increase to 12 among future governors (see Table 4). The new CYL governors will be Liu Jingmin of Beijing, Tian Xueren of Jilin, Li Zhanshu of Heilongjiang, Qin Guangrong of Yunnan, Zhao Zhengyong of Shaanxi and Zhou Qiang of Hunan.

However, none of these new governors with CYL background had any direct contact with Hu Jintao when Hu was a CYL leader in the early 1980s. Qin Guangrong was Deputy Secretary of the Hunan CYL Provincial Committee between December 1984 and February 1987; Tian Xueren was Deputy Secretary of the Jilin CYL Provincial Committee before 1985; Li Zhanshu was Secretary of the Hebei CYL Provincial Committee between April 1986 and October 1990; Zhao Zhengyong was Deputy Secretary of the Ma'anshan Iron and Steel Corporation CYL Committee and Secretary of the Ma'anshan Municipal CYL Committee; and Zhou Qiang did not enter the CYL Central Committee until November 1995.

Implications for the 17th National Party Congress

Provincial Party committee elections are a precursor to the 17th National Congress of the CCP. These elections are particularly significant for the chief provincial leaders such as provincial Party Secretaries and governors because these leaders will likely enter the 17th Central Committee of the CCP as full members.

These elections are vital to two groups of provincial Party Secretaries. First, Party Secretaries of elite provincial units are candidates for seats in the 17th Politburo. The elite provincial units currently include Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Hubei and Xinjiang. The elite provincial units after the 17th Party Congress will likely change to include Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing and Guangdong. Chongqing will probably be upgraded to elite provincial unit status, while Xinjiang and Hubei might be downgraded to normal provincial status. In other words, Wang Qishan of Beijing, Dai Xianglong of Tianjin, Han Zheng of Shanghai, Wang Yang of Chongqing and Zhang Dejiang of Guangdong may become members of the 17th Politburo.

These elections are also vital to another group of provincial Party Secretaries: candidates for the core of the fifth generation leadership of the CCP. Both Li Keqiang of Liaoning and Xi Jinping of Zhejiang have been groomed as the core of the fifth generation leadership of the CCP. Although their provinces are not likely to be upgraded to elite provincial status, their election as provincial Party Secretaries may ensure their positions in the next Politburo or possibly the next Politburo Standing Committee.

As a result, there will be eight Politburo members in the 17th Central Committee from the provincial units, including Wang Qishan of Beijing, Dai Xianglong of Tianjin, Han Zheng of Shanghai, Wang Yang of Chongqing, Zhang Dejiang of Guangdong, Li Keqiang of Liaoning, Xi Jinping of Zhejiang and Yu Zhengsheng of Hubei. Of course, not all of them will stay on as provincial leaders; some of them might be transferred to the Centre after the 17th National Party Congress.

Though elections for provincial governors and vice governors in China will not be held until 2007 and will not be completed until early 2008, it is possible to speculate on who the new governors will be because they will emerge as a result of provincial Party committee elections. Since these future governors will be Deputy Secretaries of their respective provincial units and likely enter the 17th Central Committee as full members, their appointments will also be significant for the line-up of a new leadership at the 17th National Congress of the CCP.

Although political changes in the next year or so may alter some of these predictions, the above analysis has sketched out a new provincial leadership as a whole. Clearly, provincial leaders with CYL background will continue to be prominent in the provincial leadership as nine may become provincial Party Secretaries and 12 provincial governors, taking 29 per cent and 39 per cent of the total provincial units, respectively. Moreover, the other newly appointed provincial leaders are also likely to demonstrate their institutional (and thus personal) loyalty towards General Secretary Hu Jintao.

Through these appointments, Hu Jintao will further consolidate his power in China's provinces in order that his economic, social and political policies will be better implemented. (71)

The author would like to thank Professor John Wong of the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore for his helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article.

(1) "Provincial units" refer to administrative units at the provincial level, including 4 centrally administered municipalities (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing), 23 provinces (including Taiwan), 5 autonomous regions, and 2 special administrative regions. Taiwan is under the leadership of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a Taiwan-based political party. The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Macao Special Administrative Region do not have an overseeing CCP committee because of the "one country, two systems". The remaining 31 provincial units have provincial-level Party committees.

(2) For a methodical study of the political mobility of Chinese provincial leaders, see Zhiyue Bo, Chinese Provincial Leaders: Economic Performance and Political Mobility since 1949 (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2002). For an overview of Chinese provincial leaders moving on to become national leaders after the 16th Party Congress, see Zhiyue Bo, "The Provinces: Training Ground for National Leaders or a Power in Their Own Right?" in China's Leadership in the 21st Century: the Rise of the Fourth Generation, ed. David M. Finkelstein and Maryanne Kivlehan (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2003), pp. 66-117.

(3) For a systematic assessment of the political power of the different institutions, including Chinese provinces, in the 16th Central Committee of the CCP, see Zhiyue Bo, "The 16th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party: Formal Institutions and Factional Groups", Journal of Contemporary China 13, no. 39 (May 2004): 223-56.

(4) Constitution of the CCP, Item 3, Article 10, Chapter 2. See Xinhuanet at <http:// news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-11/18/content_633225_3.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(5) For Zhang's Lichang bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/21/content_284409.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(6) For Cao Bochun's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/26/content_290396.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(7) For Liu Qi's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/21/content_284282.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(8) For Wang Yunkun's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/21/content_285219.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(9) "Dangzheng lingdao ganbu xuanba renyong gongzuo tiaoli" (Regulations on Selecting and Appointing Leading Party and Government Cadres), in Shiwuda yilai zhongyao wenxian xuanbian (Selections of Important Documents since the 15th Party Congress), vol. 3 (Beijing: Renmin chubanshe, 2003), p. 2461.

(10) For Wang Lequan's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-03/05/content_301890.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(11) For Li Jianguo's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-03/05/content_300918. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(12) Elite provincial units refer to provincial units with a seat in the Politburo. For a detailed explanation, see Bo, Chinese Provincial Leaders, Chapter 2.

(13) For Wang Qishan's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-03/05/content_300439.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(14) "Princelings" refers to the sons and daughters of former high-ranking officials of the CCP, as well as their spouses. For a systematic treatment of the princelings of the 16th Central Committee, see Bo, "The 16th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party", pp. 243-45. For a detailed study of princeling generals, see Bo Zhiyue, "Princeling Generals in China: Breaking the Two Career Barriers?" Issues & Studies 42, no. 1 (March 2006): 195-232.

(15) It is not clear whether he is still married to Yao's daughter. It has been rumoured that he has already divorced Yao's daughter.

(16) For Dai Xianglong's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-03/01/content_295750.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(17) Zong Hairen, Aimei de quanli jiaojie (Ambiguous Transition) (Carle Place, NY: Mirror Books, 2003), p. 181.

(18) For the report and Liu Qibao's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-06/29/content_4767428.htm> [10 Oct. 2006]. Cao Bochun was transferred to the National People's Congress as Vice Chairman of the Committee on Environmental Protection and Resource Conservation.

(19) See Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-06/02/content_4635448.htm> [2 June 2006].

(20) For Yuan Chungqing's bio, see <http://www.xatvs.com/ycq/jianli.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(21) See Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-06/02/content_4635448.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(22) For Nie Weiguos's bio, see <http://www.xj.xinhuanet.com/2005-08/08/content_4831602.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(23) See Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/2005-03/30/content_2763499.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(24) For Wang Min's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2004-12/14/content_2331052.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(25) The "Shanghai Gang" refers to central leaders who have previous work experience in Shanghai and who are currently working in Shanghai as municipal Party or government leaders. For a detailed description of the Shanghai Gang, see Bo, "The 16th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party", pp. 240-3.

(26) For Chen Liangyu's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/22/content_285938.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(27) For details, see Zhiyue Bo, "The Central-Provincial Relations Under Hu Jintao", Journal of Social Sciences 12, no. 12 (Dec. 2004): 1-19.

(28) For details, see Ji Suoming, "Shanghai nuoyong sanshiyi da'an zhendong Beijing" (The 3-billion Corruption Case in Shanghai Shocked Beijing) Yazhou zhoukan (Asia Weekly) 20, no. 31 (6 Aug. 2006): 34-5.

(29) "Zhongguo Zhongyang jueding dui Cheng Liangyu tongzhi yanzhong weiji wenti li'an jiancha" (The Party Centre Decided to Investigate the Case of Comrade Chen Liangyu's Serious Violations of Party Discipline) Xinhuanet, 25 Sept. 2006 at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-09/25/content_5134888.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(30) For discussion of the appointment, see Xinhuanet, 25 Sept. 2006 at <http://news. xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-09/25/content_5134894.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(31) For Han Zheng's bio, see <http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/shizheng/252/9667/968 4/3247226.html> [10 Oct. 2006].

(32) Over the past three years, Liu Yandong has been rumoured to be Chen's replacement. The new rumours point to He Guoqiang, Director of the Central Organisation Department and a member of the Politburo and the Secretariat, as a possible candidate. For the latter, see "Chuanwen He Guoqiang jiang kongjiang Shanghai, Ling Jihua ren Zhongyang zuzhi buzhang" (It is Rumoured that He Guoqiang Will be Airlifted to Shanghai and that Ling Jihua Will be Appointed as Director of the Central Organisation Department). See Chinesenesnet at <http://www2.chinesenewsnet.com/ gb/MainNews/SinoNews/Mainland/2006_10_4_11_52_7_881.html> [11 Oct. 2006].

(33) For details, see Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/2004-10/28/ content_2147270_1.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(34) For Huang Zhiquan's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/25/content_288752.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(35) For Zhang Zhongwei's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-03/04/content_299228.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(36) For Xu Rongkai's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-03/04/content_299602.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(37) For Shi Xiushi's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-03/04/content_299411. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(38) For Ma Qizhi's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-03/05/content_301767. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(39) See Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-07/03/content_4789142. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(40) See Sina.com at <http://news.sina.com.cn/z/heiljwater/index.shtml> [10 Oct. 2006]. Other reports estimated the number of children who died in the accident to be at least 280. See <http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/china/2005/06/200506131302.shtml> [10 Oct. 2006].

(41) For Zhai Hongxiang's bio, see <http://www.beijing.gov.cn/zw/sld/sz.d/fsz/t40043.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(42) For Liu Jingmin's bio, see <http://www.beijing.gov.cn/zw/sld/sz.d/fsz/t40044.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(43) For Huang Xingguo's bio, see <http://www.tianjin.gov.cn/html/city/2004-8/5/ 200485181453.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(44) See Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/2003-12/12/content_1228386. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(45) For Lin Yanzhi's bio, see <http://www.china.org.cn/chinese/zhuanti/226752.htm> and <http://ics.nccu.edu.tw/frame.php?address=polsum&id=1047> [10 Oct. 2006].

(46) For Tian Xueren's bio, see <http://ics.nccu.edu.tw/frame.php?address=polsum&id=2109> [10 Oct. 2006].

(47) See China.com at <http://news.china.com/zh_cn/focus/canker/guanggao/11010427/ 20041223/12029530.html> [10 Oct. 2006].

(48) See Chinajilin.com at <http://www.chinajilin.com.cn/2004zhengwen/2006-05-10/11976. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(49) For Li Zhanshu's bio, see <http://www.china.org.cn/chinese/zhuanti/676707.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(50) See Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/2004-10/11/content_2074699. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(51) For Wu Xinxiong's bio, see <http://leader.jxcn.cn/34/2005-7-8/30020@100523.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(52) For Jiang Jufeng's bio, see <http://www.sc.xinhuanet.com/service/zw/2006-03/08/ content_6506025.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(53) See Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-06/30/content_4771571. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(54) Another good candidate is Wang Zhengfu (1947-), currently Executive Vice Governor of Guizhou. Wang is also an alternate member of the 16th Central Committee and has been Vice Governor of Guizhou since February 1998. For Wang Zhengfu's bio, see <http://www.china.org.cn/chinese/zhuanti/276758.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(55) For Lin Shusen's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2006-07/20/content_4859895.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(56) For Qin Guangrong's bio, see <http://www.yn.xinhuanet.com/gov/2006-04/10/ content_6702481.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(57) For Zhao Zhengyong's bio, see <http://www1.shaanxi.gov.cn/govnet/z.d.asp> [10 Oct. 2006].

(58) For Wang Zhengwei's bio, see <http://ics.nccu.edu.tw/frame.php?address=polsum&id =2242> [10 Oct. 2006].

(59) Wang Zhengwei was an alternate member of the 16th Central Committee between November 2002 and September 2004. He was promoted to full membership at the Fourth Plenum of the 16th Central Committee. See Xinhuanet at <http://news. xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-10/29/content_629566.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(60) For Xu Shaosheng's bio, see <http://www.gs.gov.cn/SzzcResume.asp?ID=1> [10 Oct. 2006].

(61) See Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-09/28/content_5150109. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(62) See Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2003-04/01/content_809082.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(63) For the report, see Chinesenewsnet at <http://www2.chinesenewsnet.com/gb/MainNews/ SinoNews/Mainland/2006_9_27_14_34_38_546.html> [10 Oct. 2006]. Zhou's new appointment was confirmed by a report from Xinhua News Agency on 19 Oct. 2006. See <http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-10/19/content_5221448.htm> [19 Oct. 2006].

(64) See Xinhuanet at <http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-09/28/content_5150109. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(65) For Zhou Qiang's bio, see <http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2006-09-30/153711146609. shtml> [10 Oct. 2006].

(66) For discussion of Zhou Qiang's appointment, see <http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2006-09-30/153711146609.shtml> [10 Oct. 2006].

(67) For Ji Yunshi's bio, see <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/22/content_286042. htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(68) For Wan Xueyuan's rank in the position, see <http://gov.people.com.cn/ GB/56587/4896622.html> [10 Oct. 2006].

(69) Apparently, the Hebei leadership seems pleased to see his departure. Although Ji has yet to present his resignation as Governor of Hebei, his name has already been deleted from the Hebei government website. On 10 October 2006, his name disappeared from the list of Deputy Secretaries of Hebei and as Governor of Hebei. See <http://www. he.xinhuanet.com/zhengwu/lingdao/> [10 Oct. 2006].

(70) For Guo Gengmao's bio, see <http://www.he.xinhuanet.com/zhengwu/2006-04/17/ content_6933003.htm> [10 Oct. 2006].

(71) For a detailed analysis of the political transition from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao and Hu's subsequent power consolidation, see Zhiyue Bo, China's Elite Politics: Political Transition and Power Balancing (Singapore: World Scientific Publishers, 2007).

Bo Zhiyue (zbo@sjfc.edu) is Associate Professor and Chair of the International Studies Department at St. John Fisher College in Rochester, New York. He received his PhD in political science from the University of Chicago. His research interests include elite politics, provincial leaders and local governance in China.
Table 1. China's Provincial Party Secretaries (as of June 2006)

Provinces (a) Name Birth Age Home

Beijing# Liu Qi# 1942# 64# Jiangsu#
Tianjin# Zhang Lichang# 1939# 67# Hebei#
Hebei Bai Keming 1943 63 Shaanxi
Shanxi Zhang Baoshun 1950 56 Hebei
Inner Mongolia Chu Bo 1944 62 Anhui
Liaoning Li Kegiang 1955 51 Anhui
Jilin# Wang Yunkun# 1942# 64# Jiangsu#
Heilongjiang Qian Yunlu 1944 62 Hubei
Shanghai Chen Liangyu 1946 60 Zhejiang
Jiangsu Li Yuanchao 1950 56 Jiangsu
Zhejiang Xi Jinping 1953 53 Shaanxi
Anhui Guo Jinlong 1947 59 Jiangsu
Fujian Lu Zhangong 1952 54 Zhejiang
Jiangxi Meng Jianzhu 1947 59 Jiangsu
Shangdong Zhang Gaoli 1946 60 Fujian
Henan Xu Guangchun 1944 62 Zhejiang
Hubei Yu Zhengsheng 1945 61 Zhejiang
Hunan Zhang Chunxian 1953 53 Henan
Guangdong Zhang Dejiang 1946 60 Liaoning
Guangxi# Cao Baohun# 1941# 65# Hunan#
Hainan Wang Xiaofeng 1944 62 Hunan
Chongqing Wang Yang 1955 51 Anhui
Sichuan Zhang Xuezhong 1943 63 Gansu
Guizhou Shi Zongyuan 1946 60 Hebei
Yunnan Bai Enpei 1946 60 Shaanxi
Tibet Zhang Qingli 1951 55 Shandong
Shaanxi# LiJianguo# 1946# 60# Shandong#
Gansu Su Rong 1948 58 Jilin
Qinghai Zhao Leji 1957 49 Shaanxi
Ningxia Chen Jiangso 1945 61 Shandong
Xinjiang# Wang Lequan# 1944# 62# Shandong#
Hong Kong Gao Siren (b) 1944 62 Shandong
Macao Bai Zhijian (b) 1948 58 Hubei

Provinces (a) CCP 16th CC Since Faction

Beijing# 1975# Politburo# 10/02#
Tianjin# 1966# Politburo# 5/98#
Hebei 1975 Full 11/02 Princeling
Shanxi 1971 Alternate 7/05 CYL
Inner Mongolia 1969 Full 8/01
Liaoning 1976 Full 12/04 CYL
Jilin# 1966# Full# 9/98#
Heilongjiang 1965 Full 12/05 CYL
Shanghai 1980 Politburo 10/2 Shanghai
Jiangsu 1978 Alternate 12/02 CYL
Zhejiang 1974 Full 11/02 Princeling
Anhui 1979 Full 12/04
Fujian 1975 Full 2/04
Jiangxi 1971 Full 4/01 Shanghai
Shangdong 1973 Full 11/02
Henan 1973 Full 12/04 Shanghai
Hubei 1964 Politburo 11/01 Princeling
Hunan 1973 Full 12/05
Guangdong 1971 Politburo 11/02
Guangxi# 1966# Full# 7/97#
Hainan 1973 Full 4/03
Chongqing 1975 Alternate 12/05 CYL
Sichuan 1960 Full 12/02
Guizhou 1979 Full 12/05
Yunnan 1973 Full 10/01
Tibet 1973 Full 11/05 CYL
Shaanxi# 1971# Full# 8/97#
Gansu 1970 Full 8/03
Qinghai 1975 Full 8/03
Ningxia 1966 Full 3/02
Xinjiang# 1966# Politburo# 9/94# CYL#
Hong Kong 1972 Full 8/02
Macao 1976 Full 7/02

Notes:

(a) This refers to provinces, centrally administered cities,
autonomous regions and special administrative regions. Taiwan
is not included.

(b) They are not Party Secretaries. They are directors of the
Liaison Offices of their respective SARs.

Home = native province (jiguan)

CCP = the year the official joined the Chinese Communist Party

16th CC = 16th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party

Since = The year in which the Party Secretary assumed his current
position.

CYL = Communist Youth League

Names in bold font refer to those who are likely to step down.

Source: <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/20/content
476046.htm> [26 June 2006].

NOTE: Names in bold font are indicated by #.

Table 2. China's Provincial Party Secretaries in the 17th Central
Committee (2007)

Province (a) Name Birth Age Home

Beijing# Wang Qshan# 1948# 59# Shanxi#
Tianjin# Dai Xianglong# 1944# 63# Jiangsu#
Hebei Bai Keming 1943 64 Shaanxi
Shanxi Zhang Baoshun 1950 57 Hebei
Inner Mongolia Chu Bo 1944 63 Anhui
Liaoning Li Kegiang 1955 52 Anhui
Jilin# Wang Min# 1950# 57# Anhui#
Heilongjiang Qan Yunlu 1944 63 Hubei
Shanghai# Han Zheng# 1954# 53# Zhejiang#
Jiangsu Li Yuanchao 1950 57 Jiangsu
Zhejiang Xi Jinping 1953 54 Shaanxi
Anhui Guo Jinlong 1947 60 Jiangsu
Fujian Lu Zhangong 1952 55 Zhejiang
Jiangxi Meng Jianzhu 1947 60 Jiangsu
Shangdong Zhang Gaoli 1946 61 Fujian
Henan Xu Guangchun 1944 63 Zhejiang
Hubei Yu Zhengsheng 1945 62 Zhejiang
Hunan Zhang Chunxian 1953 54 Henan
Guangdong Zhang Dejiang 1946 61 Liaoning
Guangxi# Liu Qbao# 1953# 54# Anhui#
Hainan Wang Xiaofeng 1944 63 Hunan
Chongqing Wang Yang 1955 52 Anhui
Sichuan Zhang Xuezhong 1943 64 Gansu
Guizhou Shi Zongyuan 1946 61 Hebei
Yunnan Bai Enpei 1946 61 Shaanxi
Tibet Zhang Qngli 1951 56 Shandong
Shaanxi# Yuan Chunqing# 1951# 56# Hunan#
Gansu# Lu Hao# 1947# 60# Hebei#
Qnghai Zhao Leji 1957 50 Shaanxi
Ningxia Chen Jianguo 1945 62 Shandong
Xinjiang# Nie Weiguo# 1952# 55# Chongqing#
Hong Kong Gao Siren (b) 1944 63 Shandong
Macao Bai Zhijian (b) 1948 59 Hubei

Province (a) CCP 17th CC Faction

Beijing# 1983# Politburo# Princeling#
Tianjin# 1973# Politburo#
Hebei 1975 Full Princeling
Shanxi 1971 Full CYL
Inner Mongolia 1969 Full
Liaoning 1976 Politburo CYL
Jilin# 1985# Full#
Heilongjiang 1965 Full CYL
Shanghai# 1979# Politburo# CYL/Shanghai#
Jiangsu 1978 Full CYL
Zhejiang 1974 Politburo Princeling
Anhui 1979 Full
Fujian 1975 Full
Jiangxi 1971 Full Shanghai
Shangdong 1973 Full
Henan 1973 Full Shanghai
Hubei 1964 Politburo Princeling
Hunan 1973 Full
Guangdong 1971 Politburo
Guangxi# 1971# Full# CYL#
Hainan 1973 Full
Chongqing 1975 Politburo CYL
Sichuan 1960 Full
Guizhou 1979 Full
Yunnan 1973 Full
Tibet 1973 Full CYL
Shaanxi# 1971# Full# CYL#
Gansu# 1981# Full#
Qnghai 1975 Full
Ningxia 1966 Full
Xinjiang# 1978# Full#
Hong Kong 1972 Full
Macao 1976 Full

Notes:

(a) This refers to provinces, centrally administered cities,
autonomous regions and special administrative regions. Taiwan
is not included.

(b) They are not Party Secretaries. They are directors of the
Liaison Offices of their respective SARs Home = native province
(jiguan)

CCP = the year the official joined the Chinese Communist Party

17th CC = 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party

CYL = Communist Youth League

Names in bold font refer to those who are likely to be new
provincial Party bosses.

Source: <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/20/content
476046.htm> [26 June 2006].

NOTE: Names in bold font are indicated by #.

Table 3. China's Governors (as of June 2006)

Province (a) Governor (b) Birth Age Home

Beijing# Wang Qishan# 1948# 58# Shanxi#
Tianjin# Dai Xianglong# 1944# 62# Jiangsu#
Hebei Ji Yunshi 1945 61 Jiangsu
Shanxi Yu Youjun 1953 53 Jiangsu
Inner Mongolia Yang Jing 1953 53 Inner Mongolia
Liaoning Zhang Wenyue 1944 62 Fujian
Jilin# Wang Min# 1950# 56# Anhui#
Hefongjiang# Zhang Zuoji# 1945# 61# Heilongjiang#
Shanghai# Han Zheng# 1954# 52# Zhejiang#
Jiangsu Liang Baohua 1945 61 Jiangxi
Zhejiang Lu Zushan 1946 60 Zhejiang
Anhui Wang Jinshan 1945 61 Jilin
Fujian Huang Xiaojing 1946 60 Fujian
Jiangxi# Huang Zhiquan# 1942# 64# Zhejiang#
Shangdong Han Yuqun 1943 63 Jiangsu
Henan Li Chengyu 1946 60 Ningxia
Hubei Lon Qngquan 1945 61 Hubei
Hunan# Zhou Bohua# 1948# 58# Hunan#
Guangdong Huang Huahua 1946 60 Guangdong
Guangxi Lu Bing 1944 62 Guangxi
Hainan Wei Liucheng 1946 60 Henan
Chongqing Wang Hongju 1945 61 Chongqing
Sichuan# Zhang Zhongwei# 1942# 64# Sichuan#
Guizhou# Shi Xiushi# 1942# 64# Henan#
Yunnan# Xu Rongkai# 1942# 64# Chongqing#
Tibet Qangba Puncog 1947 59 Tibet
Shaanxi# Yuan Chunqing# 1951# 55# Hunan#
Gansu# Lu Hao# 1947# 59# Hebei#
Qnghai Song Xiuyan 1955 51 Tianjin
Ningxia# Ma Qizhi# 1943# 63# Ningxia#
Xinjiang Ismail Tiliwaldi 1944 62 Xinjiang
Hong Kong Donald Tsang 1944 62 Hong Kong
Macao Edmund Ho Han Wah 1955 51 Guangdong

Province (a) CCP 16CC Since Faction

Beijing# 1983# Full# 4/03# P#
Tianjin# 1973# Full# 12/02#
Hebei 1975 Full 12/02 CYL
Shanxi 1976 Non-CC 7/05
Inner Mongolia 1976 Alternate 4/03 CYL
Liaoning 1965 Alternate 2/04
Jilin# 1985# Non-CC# 10/04#
Hefongjiang# 1972# Full# 4/03#
Shanghai# 1979# Full# 2/03# CYL/S#
Jiangsu 1965 Alternate 12/02
Zhejiang 1966 Alternate 1/03
Anhui 1971 Full 10/02
Fujian 1973 Non-CC 12/04 CYL
Jiangxi# 1979# Full# 5/01#
Shangdong 1975 Non-CC 1/03
Henan 1971 Full 1/03 CYL
Hubei 1975 Full 10/02
Hunan# 1970# Non-CC# 3/03#
Guangdong 1971 Full 1/03 CYL
Guangxi 1976 Non-CC 4/03
Hainan 1973 Alternate 10/03
Chongqing 1979 Full 10/02
Sichuan# 1960# Full# 6/99#
Guizhou# 1978# Full# 1/01#
Yunnan# 1960# Full# 1/02#
Tibet 1974 Alternate 5/03
Shaanxi# 1971# Alternate# 6/06# CYL#
Gansu# 1981 Full# 1/01#
Qnghai 1978 Alternate 12/04 CYL
Ningxia# 1972 Full# 12/97# CYL#
Xinjiang 1973 Alternate 1/03
Hong Kong non-CCP 3/05
Macao non-CCP 5/99

Notes:

(a) This refers to provinces, centrally administered cities,
autonomous regions and special administrative regions. Taiwan
is not included.

(b) They are not Party Secretaries. They are directors of the
Liaison Offices of their respective SARs

Home = native province (jiguan)

CCP = the year the official joined the Chinese Communist Party

16th CC = 16th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party

Since = The year in which the Party Secretary assumed his current
position.

P = Princelings; S = Shanghai Gang; CYL = Communist Youth League Group

Names in bold font refer to those who are likely to step down.

Source: <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/20/content
476046.htm> [26 June 2006].

NOTE: Names in bold font are indicated by #.

Table 4. China's Governors in the 17th Central Committee (2007)

Provinces (a) Governor (b) Birth Age Home

Beijing# Liu Jingmin# 1952# 55# Hebei#
Tianjin# Huang Xingguo# 1954# 53# Zhejiang#
Hebei# Goo Gengmao# 1950# 57# Hebei#
Shanxi Yu Youjun 1953 54 Jiangsu
Inner Mongolia Yang Jing 1953 54 Inner Mongolia
Liaoning Zhang Wenyue 1944 63 Fujian
Jilin# Tian Xueren# 1947# 60# Liaoning#
Heilongjiang# Li Zhanshu# 1950# 57# Hebei#
Shanghai# Han Zheng# 1954# 53# Zhejiang#
Jiangsu Liang Baohua 1945 62 Jiangxi
Zhejiang Lu Zushan 1946 61 Zhejiang
Anhui Wang Jinshan 1945 62 Jilin
Fujian Huang Xiaojing 1946 61 Fujian
Jiangxi# Wu Xinxiong# 1949# 58# Jiangsu#
Shangdong Han Yuqun 1943 64 Jiangsu
Henan Li Chengyu 1946 61 Ningxia
Hubei Lon Qngquan 1945 62 Hubei
Hunan# Zhou Qiang# 1960# 47# Hubei#
Guangdong Huang Huahua 1946 61 Guangdong
Guangxi Lu Bing 1944 63 Guangxi
Hainan Wei Liucheng 1946 61 Henan
Chongqing Wang Hongju 1945 62 Chongqing
Sichuan# Jiang Jufeng# 1948# 59# Zhejiang#
Guizhou# Lin Shusen# 1946# 61# Guangdong#
Yunnan# Qin Guangdong# 1950# 57# Hunan#
Tibet Qangba Puncog 1947 60 Tibet
Shaanxi# Zhao Zhengyong# 1951# 56# Anhui#
Gansu# Xu Shousheng# 1953# 54# Jiangsu#
Qnghai Song Xiuyan 1955 52 Tianjin
Ningxia# Wang Zhengwei# 1957# 50# Ningxia#
Xinjiang Ismail Tiliwaldi 1944 63 Xinjiang
Hong Kong Donald Tsang 1944 63 Hong Kong
Macao Edmund Ho Han Wah 1955 52 Guangdong

Provinces (a) CCP 17CC Faction

Beijing# 1972# Full# CYL#
Tianjin# 1973# Full#
Hebei# 1972# Full#
Shanxi 1976 Full
Inner Mongolia 1976 Full CYL
Liaoning 1965 Full
Jilin# 1971# Full# CYL#
Heilongjiang# 1975# Full# CYL#
Shanghai# 1979# Full# CYL/S#
Jiangsu 1965 Full
Zhejiang 1966 Full
Anhui 1971 Full
Fujian 1973 Full CYL
Jiangxi# 1979 Full#
Shangdong 1975 Full
Henan 1971 Full CYL
Hubei 1975 Full
Hunan# Full# CYL#
Guangdong 1971 Full CYL
Guangxi 1976 Full
Hainan 1973 Full
Chongqing 1979 Full
Sichuan# 1982# Full#
Guizhou# 1981# Full#
Yunnan# 1972# Full# CYL#
Tibet 1974 Full
Shaanxi# 1973# Full# CYL#
Gansu# 1973# Full#
Qnghai 1978 Full CYL
Ningxia# 1981# Full#
Xinjiang 1973 Full
Hong Kong non-CCP
Macao non-CCP

Notes:

(a) This refers to provinces, centrally administered cities,
autonomous regions and special administrative regions. Taiwan
is not included.

(b) They are not Party Secretaries. They are directors of the Liaison
Offices of their respective SARs.

Home = native province (jiguan)

CCP = the year the official joined the Chinese Communist Party

17th CC = 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party

S = Shanghai Gang; CYL = Communist Youth League Group

Names in bold font refer to those who are likely to be new
provincial governors.

Source: <http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/20/content
476046.htm> [26 June 2006].

NOTE: Names in bold font are indicated by #.
COPYRIGHT 2007 East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2007 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Article Details
Printer friendly Cite/link Email Feedback
Author:Zhiyue, Bo
Publication:China: An International Journal
Geographic Code:9CHIN
Date:Mar 1, 2007
Words:10548
Previous Article:Zhang Jikang (1959-2006).
Next Article:China's "quiet diplomacy": the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party.
Topics:

Terms of use | Privacy policy | Copyright © 2020 Farlex, Inc. | Feedback | For webmasters