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CVID, PVID, SVID and what else?

We hear the controversial security acronyms CVID, PVID, and SVID almost every day through mass media at home and abroad nowadays; similar to THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) a couple of years ago. Those initial letters are directly related to the watch-dog defensive posture against North Korea's nuclear warhead threats against South Korea and the United States, bonded together based on their forged 65-year-old military alliance.

CVID, standing for complete veritable irreversible denuclearization, has been asserted by John Bolton a the current U.S. national security advisor a even under the George Bush administration since 2002 for comprehensive disarmament of the North. Mike Pompeo, the new U.S. secretary of state, disclosed another expression, PVID, denoting permanent veritable irreversible dismantlement. Recently, a third acronym, SVID, representing sufficient veritable irreversible denuclearization, appeared as a somewhat-refined term upon the announcement of the unpredictable U.S.-Pyongyang summit in Singapore slated for June 12.

Even though South Korea's foreign ministry spokesman said there would be no big disparity among the three acronyms except different wordings, PVID is likely to have a much further-ranging connotation than CVID or SVID in its meaning, including North Korea's whole-coverage WMD (weapons of mass destruction): "permanent" sounds stronger than "complete" or "sufficient," while "dismantlement" seems to be upgraded from "denuclearization."

The first step in any meaningful agreement would be a declaration from North Korea about the scope of its nuclear program, an assertion that no one would believe. For Trump, getting the right monitoring and inspection process is critical, given his argument that a false declaration from Iran undercut the legitimacy of the 2015 nuclear accord.

North Korea has concealed programs on a far larger scale and built an arsenal of 20 to 60 nuclear warheads. Trump's courageous decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear agreement would be a lousy deal in place of the "American First" approach. It could be a variable for the upcoming Trump-Kim Jong-un summit.

North Korea is also believed to possess large stores of germ weapons and nerve gas. Ridding the North of its warheads would require military specialists from the Western nuclear states as well as possible agreements with China, Japan and Russia to take the weapons. The goal of nuclear dismantlement to North Korea is far more complex than anything the Trump administration is taking about, seemingly a vast maze largely unknown to the outside world.

Success with a relatively small force of inspectors in North Korea depends on the full cooperation of its leader in opening up the vast nuclear enterprise he inherited from his father and grandfather.

We have to watch whether the isolated, totalitarian and inherited "juche" ideology regime would eventually remove its nuclear facilities to a third-country spot outside North Korea. Only time will tell how to verify the end of a nuclear North Korea with a comprehensive listing of all its atomic sites, factories and weapons whether the big deal with respect to CVID, PVID or SVID mutually among the two top leaders would be satisfying or not.

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Publication:The Korea Times News (Seoul, Korea)
Date:May 22, 2018
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