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CHINA LIKELY TO COLLAPSE WITHIN FIVE YEARS

 RIDGEFIELD, Conn., July 6 /PRNewswire/ -- Perception International, a worldwide forecasting group that predicted the fall of European Communism three years before it happened in 1989, has begun advising clients that China will break up into a dozen or more autonomous regions within five years.
 The corporate consulting organization believes that U.S. business in China should remain "nimble," and focus on selling services rather than installing new plants or equipment.
 In a June 25 report to clients, PI said that its intelligence network is reporting new signs of unrest and lawlessness among Chinese peasants and government officials.
 "Among the many lines of division perceptible in Chinese society, the split between the rural poor and the urban middle class has dramatically widened in recent months, leading to open rebellion," the report states.
 What the international press first reported as a demonstration over taxes by 10,000 farmers in Sichuan province on June 3, "was actually one incident in a rolling protest that started back in January and was covered up," the report says. The Sichuan riot was quelled June 6 by special forces.
 China's dissolution will likely take place regionally, with several southern and western provinces, as well as two port cities, going their own way.
 Contrary to popular belief, China has been a series of warring states for most of its history.
 The break-up will be triggered by the death of Deng Xiao Ping, the central government's paramount leader who is in his 80s. It will be driven by:
 -- "The Rise of the South," especially the growing financial empires that are tied to capitalist Hong Kong and Taiwan.
 -- An assertive Chinese diaspora, which has accumulated wealth and wants to see its homeland free of communism.
 -- A divided military whose units are more loyal to certain families than the central government.
 -- An angry peasant class, 800 million strong, which has been kept on the farm and ruthlessly taxed.
 The report says the peasants have been watching industry grow 20 percent annually while agriculture creeps along at a 3 percent growth rate. Meanwhile, their income remains pitifully low.
 Perception International is composed of inferential analysts and information gatherers who provide business intelligence to financial service companies, corporations and banks.
 -0- 7/6/93
 /CONTACT: Andre W. Alkiewicz, managing director, 203-431-6000; Charles A. Riley II, associate director, 212-447-3353; David Giguere, communications director, 413-532-6953, all of Perception International/


CO: Perception International ST: Connecticut IN: SU:

DJ -- NE006 -- 8652 07/06/93 13:30 EDT
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Date:Jul 6, 1993
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