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BOEING RELEASES 1993 WORLD AIR CARGO FORECAST

 SEATTLE, Aug. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing forecasters estimate that air cargo traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 6.8 percent between 1993 and the year 2010, the Boeing Commercial Airplane Group announced today.
 The Boeing Commercial Airplane Group predicts this in its just-released annual outlook for the global air cargo market. The 1993 World Air Cargo Forecast notes that worldwide air cargo shipments grew by 3.7 percent in 1992. This growth rate, while an improvement over the decline of nearly two percent for 1991, remains less than half of the average growth rate seen in the 1970-1992 time period.
 The forecast projects that air cargo traffic will continue to grow, increasing from 80 billion revenue tonne kilometers in 1992 to about 250 billion revenue tonne kilometers in the year 2010. (One "revenue tonne kilometer," an industry standard, is the equivalent of one metric tonne of cargo transported one kilometer.) That would represent an average annual growth rate of 6.8 percent for the forecast period -- 1 percent less than the 7.8 percent average rate in the 1970-1992 period.
 Asian markets, including Europe-Orient, North America-Orient and intra-Orient routes, are expected to experience the highest growth rates. These markets are projected to account for about 50 percent of the air freight market by the year 2010.
 In contrast to the turnaround seen in cargo traffic volume, the average revenue yielded by each tonne kilometer declined by 7 percent in 1992 and is expected to decline still further in 1993. Yield declines are projected to moderate over the long term, declining by an average of 1 percent a year during the 1993-2010 forecast period.
 The World Air Cargo Forecast foresees that large freighters, those with capacities greater than 50 metric tonnes will become an increasingly dominant portion of the world fleet of all-cargo airplanes. Large freighters currently represent 56 percent of the capacity of the world all-cargo fleet; that share is projected to grow to 70 percent by the year 2010. New freighters are expected to provide approximately one quarter of that additional capacity, while the remainder will be created through the conversion of existing passenger airplanes into freighters. The great capacity of such large airplanes as the 747-400 Freighter, coupled with their low operating costs per tonne kilometer, are seen as best fitting the needs of a market characterized by steadily growing volume and declining yields.
 NOTE: 80 b. revenue tonne km. = 55 b. revenue ton miles; 250 b. r.t.km. = 170 b. revenue ton miles; 1 metric tonne = 0.9842 U.S. long ton; 50 metric tonnes = 110,230 U.S. pounds.
 -0- 8/4/93
 /CONTACT: Klaus Brauer of Boeing Commercial Airplane Group, 206-234-9331/
 (BA)


CO: Boeing Commercial Airplane Group ST: Washington IN: AIR SU:

SB -- SE005 -- 9355 08/04/93 12:00 EDT
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Aug 4, 1993
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