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BIS REMARKS ON RECENT PDA ANNOUNCEMENTS

 APPLE GOES FROM GUI TO STICI:
 The Newton Heralds The Next-generation of Computer Interface
 NORWELL, Mass., July 26 /PRNewswire/ -- In 1983, Apple released the Lisa computer and became the first hardware vendor to commercialize the GUI (pronounced "gooey" and standing for Graphical User Interface). Ten years later, GUIs account for 39 percent of the installed base of personal computers. Now, Apple has again heralded the future of computing with its Newton MessagePad, which becomes the first computer to incorporate the next wave of user interface -- the STICI (pronounced "sticky" and standing for Self-Teaching Interpretive Communicating Interface).
 PDAs might be a small market (BIS expects unit sales to reach 65,000 by year-end 1993), but they will have influence far beyond their dollar sales. PDAs will change the way people use their PCs and will change the client-server model into the satellite-hub-server model. The client, the PC, is going to become a hub that the PDA user accesses to communicate to the network. When a user brings her PDA from a meeting into the office, the PDA will automatically log on to her PC, download any e-mail, exchange new files, and automatically update any modified files.
 PDAs will change the desktop PC in another way. Looking ahead to the future of the pen PC market, it is appropriate to ask what role the pen will have on the desktop. Desktop PCs will not have simple styluses, because users do not want to write with the stylus and then look up to the screen to see what is being written. Instead, the PDA will be used as electronic paper, providing much more responsiveness. The user will write on the PDA, quickly make sketches or corrections, and press a button to transmit this data to the PC. The PDA will become another input device for the PC.
 Finally, the PDA is going to change the PC in an even more dramatic fashion. Looking out a little further, the desktop GUI is going to give way to the STICI. The STICI is the Self-Teaching Interpretive Communicating Interface, and it arrives first with Go's PenPoint, then the Newton Intelligence and other successors to the pen-PC operating systems. Eventually, BIS will see this functionality integrated into desktop versions of Windows and into the Macintosh system.


PDA MARKET OFFICIALLY BEGINS AS FIRST PRODUCTS HIT THE STREET
 The PDA market is about to be born, with AT&T EO Personal Communicators reaching the first retailers and Apple Newton MessagePads not far behind. While the total market in 1993 will be relatively modest, the long term sales potential is enormous. BIS Strategic Decisions estimates that in six years annual PDA sales will top 4 million units.
 The road to mass market sales could prove challenging. BIS analyst Raymond Boggs noted that suppliers are setting expectations too high for the new product: "It's like the New Hampshire Presidential primary. If you do better than people expect, you're a winner, but if you don't reach your stated goal, you're a bum. The key is to define success appropriately." The Norwell, Mass., market research firm expects 1995 PDA sales in the 300,000-400,000 range. While lower than some manufacturer estimates for unit sales, this still represents faster growth than that of any other advanced technology product, including cellular phones.
 BIS expects initial PDA products will appeal most to advanced corporate users with a strong interest in communications. Boggs noted that Apple shifted product emphasis in response to the communications opportunity. "The corporate mobile worker represents a growing potential market, with very real technology needs and very real money to spend," he said.
 Richard Siber, who directs BIS' Mobile and Wireless Communications Market Advisory Service, added that communications services will provide the greatest profits over time: "Hardware will eventually become commodity-like, with the inevitable squeeze on margins. The serious money will come from recurring service revenues. That's where you'll find the billion dollar baby."
 PDA products will assume a variety of shapes and capabilities in the years ahead, although communications will continue to be critical. BIS estimates that 70 percent of new PDAs will have wired or wireless communications capability by 1999.
 -0- 7/26/93 R
 /CONTACT: Martha Popoloski of BIS Strategic Decisions, 617-982-0500/


CO: Apple Computer Corporation ST: Massachusetts IN: CPR SU:

673 07-26-93 09:02 EDT DJ -- NE005R -- 5556 07/26/93 09:24 EDT
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Date:Jul 26, 1993
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