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Antihypertensive sales expected to take hit.

NEW YORK -- Multiple major drug patent expirations will cause the value of the global antihypertensive market to decline from $40 billion in 2013 to $37.6 billion by 2020, a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.9%, says business intelligence provider GBI Research.

The company's report states that although the antihypertensive market value is initially expected to increase to $44.5 billion by 2017, representing a CAGR of 2.6%, it will then fall at a negative CAGR of 5.4% through to 2020.

Arti Singh, an analyst for GBI Research, says: "The initial expansion of this market will result from the increased penetration of fixed-dose combination drugs, such as Amturnide, Exforge, Tribenzor, Azor, Tekamlo and Valturna. A rise in the prevalence of hypertension, from a population of 181 million to 190 million, combined with the anticipated launches of azilsartan with amlodipine and AHU377 with valsartan, will also contribute."

But the hypertension market growth will be countered by significant drug patent expirations both prior to and during the forecast period, including those of Cozaar in 2010, Diovan, Avapro and Atacand in 2012, Exforge in 2014, Benicar in 2016, and Tekturna and Tekturna HCT in 2018.

The report notes that a low diagnosis rate, teamed with a rise in generic penetration, will also drive the decline.

Singh continues: "Most of the drugs in the anti-hypertensives pipeline are generics, accounting for 77% of over 544 active molecules in development, while only 20% are novel drug candidates.

"The substantial number of active drug candidates, spread across the various stages of clinical development, demonstrates a strong overall pipeline. However, the novel approach is currently limited to a few targets, most notably nondihydropyridine dual L/T-type calcium channel blockers (ACT-280778), Rho-associated kinase inhibitors (AN-3485) and vitamin D receptor agonists (CARD-024)."

According to GBI Research, an increased uptake in combination therapies for treating hypertension will enable the antihypertensive market to survive despite the series of patent expiries.

Furthermore, the report states that an expected rise in the prescription of renin inhibitors (Tektuma/Rasilez) over the forecast period will also keep the market growth steady.

Another research firm, GlobalData, reaches similar conclusions about the major depressive disorder treatment market,

"The therapeutics market for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) will face a dynamic phase-up until the end of 2023, thanks to the potential launch of new treatments following the patent expirations of top-selling products," says GlobalData.

According to its report, the MDD treatment market achieved sales of approximately $9.3 billion in 2013 across the seven major markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan) and Australia. These sales will witness minimal growth by the end of 2023, reaching an estimated $9.7 billion, at a CAGR of 0.39%.

However, GlobalData forecasts that the market value will first undergo a decline until 2017, with sales dropping to $7.3 billion. This can be attributed mainly to the expirations of patents for Eli Lilly's Cymbalta, Otsuka Pharmaceutical/Bristol-Myers Squibb's Ability and AstraZeneca's Seroquel XR.

Toli Koutsokeras, GlobalData's senior analyst covering Neurology, says: "Additionally, there are a number of significant needs in the depression therapeutics market that are yet to be addressed. These include the requirement for products that demonstrate improved efficacy, more favorable safety profiles and a rapid onset of antidepressant effects. Ample opportunity therefore exists for players looking to develop and potentially introduce therapies which can address these unmet needs into this arena."

GlobalData states that there are already seven products in the late-stage pipeline that could enter the MDD market during the forecast period. These include adjunctive therapies, such as Otsuka/Lundbeck's brexpiprazole, Forest (Actavis)/Gedeon Richter/Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma's cariprazine, Alkermes's ALKS-5461 and Naurex's GLYX-13.
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Title Annotation:RX/Branded Drugs
Publication:Chain Drug Review
Date:Jul 7, 2014
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