Annual growth would be 2% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017 (BCT).
(TAP) -The pace of quarterly GDP growth (2010 constant prices) should remain in the range of 0.6% - 1.2% until the last quarter of 2017, reported the Executive Board of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT). The annual growth rate would be 2.0% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017.
Excluding agriculture, GDP growth could reach 2.6% in 2016 and 3.4% the year after, against only 0.3% in 2015.
- Gradual return to growth driven by EMI and TCL
The central forecast scenario of the BCT favours a gradual return to the growth rates of before-2015. This return would be driven by the recovery in production of export industries (EMI and TCL), in line with the expected increase in demand from key partners, in particular the Euro Zone.
The Central Bank expects a positive and significant contribution of the gradual recovery of production in some sectors that have experienced disturbance and a near shutdown of production in 2015, especially the chemical, mining, phosphate and energy industries.
Moreover, the pace of recovery of tourist activity should be very slow, which would imply a negative contribution to economic growth in 2016, and a slightly positive one in 2017.
- Agriculture: negative contribution to GDP growth
As for agriculture, it should suffer the impact of rainfall deficiency, by negatively contributing to GDP growth in 2016, before returning to growth the year after.
Maintaining growth on an upward trend and higher than potential growth promote a gradual closure of the production gap by 2017.
The outlook for the Tunisian economy should improve. However, It is subject to specific risks that would weigh on growth (slowdown in foreign demand, significant rise in oil prices and intensification of geo-political crises).
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