An integrated decision support system (DSS) for the management of sustainable mariculture in Indonesia.
As the stocks of wild fish decline worldwide and the human population increases, aquaculture is becoming one of the quickest increasing food production sectors and also important as protein food supplier to the world population [1,2,3]. On the other hand as a result of the increase in fish production and seafood mariculture, there is a growing concern about the impacts of such activities on the environment. Therefore, it is vital to improve aquaculture technology and to develop management tools that address the need for an eco-friendly production process and the concerns regarding food safety .
In 2010, an ecosystem approach to aquaculture (EAA) was introduced by FAO to promote sustainable development, equity, and the resilience of interlinked socio-ecological systems. Farhan and Lim recommended the use of Decision Support Systems (DSSs) to meet the flexibility of dynamic environments.In this paper the application of a DSS under development at the Research and Technology Centre Westcoast of the University of Kiel for the sustainable environmental and socio- economic management of floating net cage (SYSMAR) is assessed. The DSS utilizes high resolution hydrodynamic information concerning water depth, current velocities and wave heights obtained from hydrodynamic models. Through GIS as spatial planning tools, SYSMAR DSS is able to assist in estimating site selection, determine different types of carrying capacities (CC) such as production CC, as well as ecological CC to guarantee sustainable environmental development. Furthermore, a method for the economic analysis of mariculture investment is proposed. Financial indicators to enable an adequate economic assessment were identified [6,7,4].
The investigations were carried out at three priority sites in Indonesia namely Talise Island located in the northern most tip of Sulawesi; Galang Island which is part of the Riau Archipelago located opposite of Singapore and Ekas Bay located south of the Lombok Island(see Figure 1). The development focuses on the most common high value finfish species nurtured in FNC in Indonesia [8,9,10,11]. Thus, Tiger grouper (Epinephelus fuscoguttatus), Humpback grouper (Cromoliptes altivelis), and Leopard Coral grouper (Plectropomeus leopardus) are considered.
MATERIAL AND METHOD
Hydrodynamic and wave models:
In order to provide flow and wave information, hydrodynamic models for the three selected regions were set up using the open source Delft3D modeling suite. Curvilinear grids covered the region with increasing resolutions of up to 40 meters in the areas of interest as indicated in Figure 1. Bathymetric information was taken from the GEBCO database . Additional bathymetric information for the near shore was provided by the national surveying agency . Tidal driving forces were specified along the open model boundaries in the form of astronomical constituents . Wave models were set up using maximum wind magnitudes and directions for the period 2005 to 2009 from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database .
A comprehensive site suitability and capability map which integrates all of the selected criteria was edited using thirty two parameters identified in Table 1. In order to assess the relative impacts of each category of parameters (e.g. physical, chemical, and ICZM) on the DSS result, the suitability maps of the three applied categories are presented. The parameters considered in SYSMAR were taken from FAO, Cross and Kingzett, Kapetsky and Agullar-Manjarrez and Szuster and Albasri [16,17,18,19].
Production Carrying Capacity:
Production carrying capacities have been defined by the emission of particulate carbon governed by the amount of waste and physical characteristics, and deposited beneath FNC farms . A simplified footprint approach considers particle settling velocities, carbon flux, current velocities, water depth and dispersion constants to provide an approximation of the carbon deposition footprint and derived deposition rates around the farm as described in Gilibrand and Van der Wulp [21,6]. Gilibrand  identified a breakdown rate of 0.7 kg C [m.sup.-2] [y.sup.-1], which is equivalent to 1.9 g C [m.sup.-2] [d.sup.-1] and adopted by Rachmansyah , while Krost  proposed a slightly more conservative threshold value of about 0.5 to 2 g C [m.sup.-2] [d.sup.-1] on the basis of measurements carried out in fish farms in Indonesia. Thus in order to ensure practical sustainability in Indonesia, we adopt the threshold value criteria of 1-2 g C [m.sup.-2] [d.sup.-1] for determining local/production carrying capacity.
Ecological Carrying Capacity:
In this paper, the ecological carrying capacity for FNC finfish farms within a domain is set to be equivalent to the production rates of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) which do not contribute more than 1% of the TDN flux of the domain [24,25,6].
Economic Analysis of Mariculture Investments:
Economic decision tools in mariculture aim to assist farmers, potential investors, and decision makers (stakeholders) in understanding the economic requirements, costs and benefits, and risks involved in production. Economic sustainability is maintained when environmentally sustainable production rates remain profitable . In this paper, the discount cash flow analysis methodologies facilitate the justification of an investment in cases in which the net present value (NPV) is greater than 0, the benefit cost ratio (BCR) greater than 1 and the internal rate of return (IRR) greater than each benefit cost value [27,28]. Required information of the main economic properties of grouper at Galang Island was collected from various institutions in 2012 and 2013 as shown in Table 2 (1 [euro] = 12.500 IDR).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
After classifying, the physical information from hydrodynamic and wave numerical models give an insight into the spatial distribution of areas which are suited for the development of floating net cage mariculture. The first location for the application of SYSMAR DSS site selection is in the vicinity of Talise Island. The concluding outcome of the wave parameter analysis showed that all the area is defined as unsuitable (see Figure 3a). As can be seen in Figure 3b, the final result of site selection in Ekas Bay shows no potentially suitable area for development of floating net cages (FNC) grouper culture. It is affected by incopatible wave height parameter, current and flushing which are considered too weak or low for FNC activities. Conditions are more feasible in Galang Island. The final result of the suitability map from all parameters in the vicinity of the Galang Island can be seen in Figure 3c. It shows about 12,940 Ha (40.3%) of the seawater area in Galang Island are interpreted as suited area. The areas are spread over the vicinity of the Galang Island. Regarding the results of site selection carried out on three areas, we conclude that Galang Island is a suitable location for further development of FNC grouper culture in Indonesia.
Production Carrying Capacity:
There is a large area available for the development of FNC grouper culture in Galang Island. The SYSMAR DSS is applied to recognize the best locations for a limited number of farms. The selection is carried out for all potential farms based on the production carrying capacity. Thus, suitable and potential locations for all farms with a minimum distance of 500 meters between individual farms were selected for each of the locations as shown in Figure 3d. We consider large scale farms (over 100 cages) made up of cages with the size of 3m x 3m x 3m, with a distance between cages of 1 m [33,34].
In Galang Island, prediction based on maximum deposition and feeding with trash fish indicated that about 51-125 tons/year/farm can be produced, but when feeding with mixed trash fish and pellet or feeding just pellet about 73 to 196 tons/year/farm and 115 to 366 tons/year/farm, respectively can be sustained (see Table 3). Discrepancies of the production carrying capacity are obtained by feeding type and also physical models which are influenced by currents and maximum water depth parameters as dominant factors and responsible for the indicated ranges.
Ecological Carrying Capacity:
The ecological carrying capacity for FNC finfish farms within a domain is proposed to be equivalent to emission rates of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) not exceeding 1% of the TDN flux of the suitable domain. The maximum daily TDN load is calculated with respect to the flushing rate and TDN background concentration of the suited region, which is recorded in the order of 0.31 mg N [l.sup.-1] . As can be seen in Table 3, the ecological carrying capacities are in the range of 18,393-21,727 tons per year in the vicinity of Galang Island.
Since the estimation of the total maximum production CC does not exceed the ecological carrying capacity , the estimation of the maximum allowable production in the vicinity of Galang Island is 21,727 t/a. Regarding the estimation of production carrying capacity in the vicinity of Galang Island, this total production is achieved by 206 fish farms with an estimated production CC in the range of 32.5 t/a/f to 366 t/a/f.
Economic Analysis of the SYSMAR DSS:
The aim of the Indonesian government is to expand fish farming activities, especially through small family owned businesses. Therefore, it is necessary to consider small scale farms (10 cages or less) and large scale farms (100 cages or more).Table 4 presents a ranking of the 18 cases studied of 10 cages and 600 cages according to the indicators of financial viability of FNC grouper culture projects in Galang Island. The project ranking shows that the highest net present value (NPV) amounts to 9,961 million Euros that the highest internal rate of return (IRR) amounts to 590% and that the payback period is shorter than 1 year in the case of a large farm of 600 cages in which the variety Leopard Coral Grouper is fed trash fish. On the other hand, the lowest NPV is obtained from a small farm of 10 cages in which the variety Tiger Grouper is fed pellets (NPV: 34,089 [euro], IRR 107% and payback less than 1 year).
Surprisingly, the results for the 18 cases show strongly positive levels of NPV, very large values of internal rate of return, well above the discount rate value of 13% and an extremely short payback period below one year. It is apparent that the economic analysis for the sites in Galang Island clearly indicates the economic feasibility of FNC grouper culture projects.
The research shows that FNC finfish culture developments are economically viable as a whole, because after a 5-year projection period, positive cumulative cash flow and net present value, internal rate of return at rates above the bank rates, and a payback period far below the 5 year projected lifetime of the project are evident.
The use and implementation of a DSS for sustainable aquaculture development in Indonesia, with respect to the EAA concept of various carrying capacities which was introduced by FAO in 2010, is very complex and a number of concerns should be taken into account. We find that the dissimilarity of the definitions of carrying capacity in the different contexts, along with its development is a complex problem. On the other hand, this DSS is able to present the integration of all key components of detailed site selection, determination of carrying capacity along with an economic appraisal.
Received 12 February 2015
Accepted 1 March 2015
Available online 28 March 2015
I would like to show my gratitude to Rector of Lancang Kuning University Pekanbaru Indonesia.
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(1) Hermawan S. and (2) Syafrani
(1) Civil Engineering, Faculty of Technic, Lancang Kuning University, Pekanbaru Riau, Indonesia.
(2) Faculty of Agriculture, Lancang Kuning University, Pekanbaru Riau, Indonesia.
Corresponding Author: Hermawan S., Civil Engineering, Faculty of Technic, Lancang Kuning University, Pekanbaru Riau, Indonesia.
Table 1: Site selection of groupers grown in floating net cages. Description Parameters Indicators Units Physical Min. water depth water depth m Process Max. mooring water depth m Flushing mean current m/s Currents mean current m/s Exposure to waves significant m wave max wind Exposure to wind speed m/s Water temperature water [degrees]C Salinity temperature salinity ppm Dissolved oxygen dissolved mg[O.sub.2]/l oxygen Acid-base pH -log(H+) balance Water transparency Secchi depth m Turbidity suspended mg/l matter Ammonium Water ammonium mg N[H.sub.4]-N/l Quality Nitrate nitrate mg N[O.sub.3]-N/l Nitrite nitrite mg N[O.sub.2]-N/l Phosphate total phosphate mg P/l Villages thematic map m thematic map m Towns thematic map m Cities thematic map m Harbours thematic map m Industry thematic map m ICZM Tourism thematic map m Streams thematic map m Rivers thematic map m Erosive shoreline thematic map m Semi intensive hatcheries thematic map m Intensive hatcheries thematic map m Ponds thematic map m Sewage discharges thematic map m Traffic lanes thematic map m Coastal usage thematic map m Environmentally protected area Description Parameters Unsuitable Allowable Physical Min. water depth < 6 [greater Process Max. mooring than or equal to] 6 > 25 [less than Flushing or equal to] 25 <0.01 [greater Currents than or equal to]0.01 > 1 [less Exposure to waves than or equal to]1 > 1 [less than or equal to]1 Exposure to wind > 15 [less Water temperature than or equal to]15 <20 or >35 20-35 Salinity <15 or >35 15-35 Dissolved oxygen < 4 [greater than or equal to]6 Acid-base <6 or >8.5 6-7.8 balance Water transparency < 2 [greater than or equal to]2 Turbidity > 10 [less than or equal to]10 Ammonium Water > 1 [less Quality than or equal to]1 Nitrate > 200 [less than or equal to]200 Nitrite > 4 [less than or equal to]4 Phosphate > 70 [less than or equal to]70 Villages < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Towns < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Cities < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Harbours < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Industry < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 ICZM Tourism < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Streams < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Rivers < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Erosive shoreline < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Semi intensive hatcheries < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Intensive hatcheries < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Ponds < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Sewage discharges < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Traffic lanes < 200 [greater than or equal to]200 Coastal usage < 200 [greater Environmentally than or protected area equal to]200 Description Parameters Optimal Physical Min. water depth > 8 Process Max. mooring < 20 Flushing 0.2-0.5 Currents 0.2-0.5 Exposure to waves < 0.6 Exposure to wind < 10 Water temperature 27-31 Salinity 26-31 Dissolved oxygen > 5 Acid-base 7.8-8.5 balance Water transparency > 4 Turbidity < 5 Ammonium Water < 0.5 Quality Nitrate < 200 Nitrite < 4 Phosphate < 70 Villages > 500 > 500 Towns > 500 Cities > 500 Harbours > 500 Industry > 500 ICZM Tourism > 500 Streams > 500 Rivers > 500 Erosive shoreline > 500 Semi intensive hatcheries > 500 Intensive hatcheries > 500 Ponds > 500 Sewage discharges > 500 Traffic lanes > 500 Coastal usage > 500 Environmentally protected area Table 2: Economic properties of grouper cultures at Galang Island Economic Properties 10 FNC 600 FNC Investment, including Floating net 11,908 504,000 home base, guard cages 3x3 x3m [euro] [euro] house, storage, FNC, operational Lifespan (years) 5 equipment, electric, contingency, etc Indonesian Bank, 2012 Discount rate (%) 13 Progressive Tax, Law Tax rate (%) 25 No.17, 2010  Food convertion ratio Trash fish 7.78 [30,6] Pellets 2.64 Grow out period Tiger Grouper 300 (day)  Humpback Grouper 500 Leopard Coral Grouper 180 Seed price Tiger Grouper 0.6 ([euro]/kg)  Humpback Grouper 0.96 Leopard Coral Grouper 2.72 Feed price Trash fish 0,32 ([euro]/kg)  Pellets 1.04 Production (kg) Tiger Grouper 3,285 197,100 Humpback Grouper 1,380 87,782 Leopard Coral Grouper 5,475 328,500 Commodity Value Tiger Grouper 11.20 [euro] ([euro]/kg) [31,32] Humpback Grouper 28.00 [euro] Leopard Coral Grouper 21.60 [euro] Wages ([euro]/year) Total wages 4,612 44,688 [euro] [euro] Table 3: Results of the estimation of site selection and carrying capacity, A) Site Selection, B) Production CC based on the dissipation of particulate organic matter in the vicinity of a particular farm, C) Ecological CC based on the maximum POM load and TDN surplus. Type of Carrying Feedstock Grouper species Capacity TG HG Site Selection Ha 12,940 Production Carrying Capacity: Deposition threshold 1g C [m.sup.-2] [d.sup.-1] t/a/fish farm TF (a) 0.5-59 0.5-85 P (b) 0.5-158 2-400 M (c) 0.5-90 0.5-153 Deposition threshold 2g C [m.sup.-2] [d.sup.-1] t/a/fish farm TF 0.5-155.5 1-277 P 3-624 20-1000 M 1-268 2.5-650 Ecological Carrying Capacity (d) based on a limitation by particulate organic matter: t/a/entire domain TF 3,959-9,972 5,371-15,503 P 10,478-35,993 22,162-128,071 M 6,014-16,729 9,152-33,467 based on a limitation by Total Dissolved Nitrogen: t/a/entire domain TF 18,393 18,393 P 21,727 21,727 M 20,116 20,116 Type of Carrying Feedstock Grouper species Capacity LG Site Selection Ha Production Carrying Capacity: Deposition threshold 1g C [m.sup.-2] [d.sup.-1] t/a/fish farm TF (a) 0.5-51 P (b) 0.5-115.5 M (c) 0.5-73.5 Deposition threshold 2g C [m.sup.-2] [d.sup.-1] t/a/fish farm TF 0.5-125.5 P 2-366 M 1-196 Ecological Carrying Capacity (d) based on a limitation by particulate organic matter: t/a/entire domain TF 3,493-8,410 P 7,942-23,795 M 5,308-13,050 based on a limitation by Total Dissolved Nitrogen: t/a/entire domain TF 18,393 P 21,727 M 20,166 Remarks: (a) trash fish, (b) Pellet, (c) Mix 70% trash fish and 30% pellet (d) The calculation considers an acceptable bed load of 1-2g organic carbon [m.sup.-2] [d.sup.-1] Table 4: Rankins of economic analysis of the FNC finfish culture. No. Type of Floating NPV IRR (%) Net Cages Grouper (1.000 [euro]) 600 Cages 1 Leopard Coral Grouper 9,961 590 feed with trash fishes 2 Leopard Coral Grouper feed with 9,837 583 trash fishes and pellets 3 Leopard Coral Grouper feed with pellets 9,739 577 4 Humpback Grouper feed with pellets 4,062 257 5 Humpback Grouper feed with trash fishes 4,025 255 6 Humpback Grouper feed with 3,994 253 trash fishes and pellets 7 Tiger Grouper feed with trash fishes 3,159 204 8 Tiger Grouper feed with 3,054 200 trash fishes and pellets 9 Tiger Grouper 600 cases 2,996 197 feed with pellets 10 cages 10 Leopard Coral Grouper 150 387 feed with trash fishes 11 Leopard Coral Grouper feed 148 382 with trash fishes and pellets 12 Leopard Coral Grouper feed with pellets 146 378 13 Humpback Grouper feed with trash fishes 51 149 14 Humpback Grouper feed with 51 148 trash fishes and pellets 15 Humpback Grouper feed with pellets 50 147 16 Tiger Grouper feed with trash fishes 36 112 17 Tiger Grouper feed with 35 109 trash fishes and pellets 18 Tiger Grouper feed with pellets 34 107 No. Type of Floating PP year Net Cages Grouper 600 Cages 1 Leopard Coral Grouper 0.19 feed with trash fishes 2 Leopard Coral Grouper feed with 0.17 trash fishes and pellets 3 Leopard Coral Grouper feed with pellets 0.17 4 Humpback Grouper feed with pellets 0.39 5 Humpback Grouper feed with trash fishes 0.39 6 Humpback Grouper feed with 0.39 trash fishes and pellets 7 Tiger Grouper feed with trash fishes 0.49 8 Tiger Grouper feed with 0.50 trash fishes and pellets 9 Tiger Grouper 600 cases 0.51 feed with pellets 10 cages 10 Leopard Coral Grouper 0.26 feed with trash fishes 11 Leopard Coral Grouper feed 0.26 with trash fishes and pellets 12 Leopard Coral Grouper feed with pellets 0.26 13 Humpback Grouper feed with trash fishes 0.66 14 Humpback Grouper feed with 0.67 trash fishes and pellets 15 Humpback Grouper feed with pellets 0.67 16 Tiger Grouper feed with trash fishes 0.87 17 Tiger Grouper feed with 0.89 trash fishes and pellets 18 Tiger Grouper feed with pellets 0.91
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|Author:||Hermawan, S.; Syafrani|
|Publication:||Advances in Environmental Biology|
|Date:||Apr 1, 2015|
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