Algeria Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013 - New Market Study Published.
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* The Touat projects appear to be on schedule, with target start-up date for 2016. The field could at 4.5bcm of gas to the country's output at peak, contributing to our view that despite rapid depletion of major fields, the country could revive its gas production.
* Anadarko's El Merk oil project started production in line with planned scheduled throughout Q213. The project reached an output of 12, 000 barrels per day (b/d) in May, which is expected to peak at about 130,000b/d by the end of the year.
* There have been three other key developments in Algeria's hydrocarbons sector since the beginning of the year. Firstly, the attacks on the In Amenas plant and Ain Chikh pipeline. Secondly, the adoption of the 2013 Hydrocarbon law, revamping the production tax system, state ownership and exploration incentives. Finally, the start up of gas production at Eni-operated Menzel Ledjmet Est.
* The Algerian Parliament in January 2013 approved a new national hydrocarbons law that reforms some of the more unwelcome policies that were established in 2005. We believe that while it creates strong exploration incentives, the new production tax regime remains unclear and burdensome, and could deter some companies from entering the market. Additionally, increased state ownership, especially in downstream and midstream, is creating further uncertainty for investors.
* Terrorist attacks, in particular at BP's In Amenas gas plant, are creating security concerns for investors, further fuelled by the armed conflict in neighbouring Mali. Most likely, these events will push state hydrocarbons regulator ALNAFT to postpone the long-expected offshore licensing round in order to wait for improved investor sentiment.
* We forecast that oil production will rise from an estimated 1.847mn b/d in 2012 to 1.926mn b/d in 2016 as ambitious new projects, mostly located in the Berkine basin, come on stream. Production will steadily decline afterward to reach around 1.873mn b/d in 2020.
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|Date:||Oct 29, 2013|
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