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Afghan conundrum.

Byline: ZAHID ALI NAGRI-Nagar Gilgit-Baltistan

Against the backdrop of current looming and unpredictable situation in Afghanistan, world is going to be polarized into two factions post-US's ambiguous withdrawal-in the words of many expert analysts and political commentators, after a 'failure of US' in two decades of war.

First, US will woo India and possibly Japan to counter the Chinese influence in the region especially in regard to its (Chinese) Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Second, Moscow and Beijing will attempt to fill the vacuum created by a hasty and presumably a 'deliberate' mismanaged US withdrawal.

But, both China and Russia would never want a Deja vu of war and anarchy in Afghanistan simply because this will definitely have detrimental consequences for the entire region which can engulf both countries too.

Especially for China, Afghanistan, being an important region for completion of its billion dollar BRI project, any chaos and civil war can hamper, or even stop its ongoing work on the project.

Notably, from the very start of the announcement of BRI, US was much concerned about growing Chinese influence over the world.

Therefore, soon after BRI, US also announced same sort of worldwide mega project. It also wooed with India to counter China in region.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, a peaceful settlement of Afghan conundrum will be a sigh of relief to Pakistan for clear reasons.

Although, hawkish anti-Pakistan statements from some of officials and even President Ghani about its alleged involvement in supporting Afghan Taliban to collapse Ghani government were made recently.

But, irrespective of its past pro-TTA stance, this time around, Pakistan is clear about a peaceful Afghan-led and Afghan-owned political setup for vivid reasons.

First, Pakistan cannot afford further fallout of violence, militant extremism and terrorism from the neighbour.

It is evident from its border fencing that Pakistan is concerned about spillover of war, and thus, would want peace and stability in Afghanistan. Secondly, due to unaffordable refugee issue, Pakistan will never want civil war in Afghanistan.

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Author:ZAHID ALI NAGRI-Nagar Gilgit-Baltistan
Publication:Pakistan Observer (Islamabad, Pakistan)
Geographic Code:9PAKI
Date:Jul 27, 2021
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