Abbey Dore ready to resume winning habit; TRADING POSTDaily betting insight with Paul Kealy.
Abbey Dore began his successful run off a lowly mark of 64 in March, went in again before the season was out and then returned this term to make it three on the spin.
He was scuppered in his four-timer bid last month when Marias Rock saw him off by a length at Plumpton, but he could well have put up an improved performance in defeat as, despite the low grade, the race appears to be working out well.
The front four that day pulled nicely clear and none has run since, but the fifth won at Folkestone on Sunday, while those finishing seventh, eighth and ninth have come out and produced form figures of 322, each improving dramatically on their Plumpton form.
Abbey Dore has been put up another 3lb, which means he's 22lb higher than when his winning run started, but he's still in here off a low weight in sticky ground that clearly suits.
Lay of the day (for a place) Coach Lane 3.30 Fontwell In good nick and definite form claims on his second start for Nick Mitchell, but has never really convinced when going 2m4f-plus and is opposable given the trip is going to take some getting on heavy ground.
Although the form book says he won over 2m4f - at Towcester, of all places - two years ago, that was over hurdles on a good to firm surface and off a handicap mark 25lb lower than he was then rated over fences.
The ten-year-old chaser's form figures at 2m4f or further over fences read 489566PP2667, with the '2' coming in a five-runner race that saw two of his rivals fail to reach four from home, while his average beaten distance for his completions is 44 lengths.
His last-time-out head second to Rimini at Newbury is a decent piece of form in the context of this race and his 4lb rise means Mitchell has got him going in the right direction again, but that was at 2m21/2f on good ground and today's test will be very different, especially after all the rain that was around yesterday.
There's no doubt he'll like the ground and he may handle it better than most, but his profile says he won't get home.
Today's pointers Topless (2.30 Fontwell) is best remembered for throwing away a winning lead when unseating on the run-in at Taunton (1.01) a couple of years ago, but she's become a reliable mare to trade since then.
Although she has won only one of her 27 starts (in 2007), on seven of her last nine she has traded in running at between 1.51 and 2.66. If you count only those runs on ground described as soft or worse, it's six out of six, so everything should be in place for her to dip under her forecast odds of 7-2. She usually makes the running but has traded short when held up as well, so race tactics are not an issue.
It will be interesting to see if there is any money for Weet A Surprise in the opening claimer at Wolverhampton (4.10).
This time last year he was in terrific form and signed off in April with a handicap rating of 78, 5lb higher than any of his rivals who are due to give him weight here. A five-time course winner (three times over today's 5f), the six-year-old has excuses for his two below-par runs this term, with fitness an issue on his first run and the distance too far next time.
The market tends to call Nicky Henderson's odds-on shots pretty well - he has two possibles at Bangor today in Skint (2.20) and Line Freedom (2.50). However, following his odds-on shots blind would have been a waste of time. Since 2003 he's has 154 winners from 253 such runners, with a level-stakes loss of pounds 5.78. His last three have won, but he did have a 1-5 loser on Wednesday.
BANKERS OR BLOWOUTS? Luck Of The Draw 1.40 Lingfield SP forecast 6-4 Typical Sir Mark Prescott gelding who showed little as a two-year-old but has started to progress since being upped in distance - although he needed plenty of time before finding his feet and didn't score until his fourth birthday on Saturday. He Lord Lansing 5.10 Wolverhampton SP forecast 6-4 Carries a 6lb penalty for a shock win in a five-runner claimer against much higher-rated rivals over a similar trip at Lingfield last time and will have 10lb more in future handicaps, so little doubt he's lobbed in if that wasn't a fluke. He has run only six times, so there's a chance it wasn't, but he was clearly not fancied then (started 50-1) and faces a different task here as they went no pace last time but should do in a much bigger field.
made it two from two at Southwell three days later and now goes for a quickfire hat-trick. The extra distance will suit again and he will clearly take the beating in a poor race if acting as well on Polytrack. Conclusion Sire's progeny are 19-116 (16 per cent) on Fibresand since 2003, but only 32-393 on Polytrack (eight per cent). I'll oppose if he's much shorter, which is fairly likely.
Conclusion Take his last run away and he would be 33-1. Could you back him at 6-4 based on one run in a slow time, the form of which is questionable? Neither could I. Lay.