US officials say that American troop levels in Iraq are likely to
remain well above 140,000 for the next few months, although they will
not confirm reports that the 3,500-strong First Armoured Division had
been ordered to remain in Iraq beyond its official tour of duty. Growing
sectarian conflict between Iraqi militias in the last few months and the
continuation of the mostly Sunni insurgency against US forces has
complicated the Bush administration's goal of "standing down
as the Iraqis stand up". The overall US troop presence in Iraq has
risen from 127,000 in July to 142,000 this week. Last week the US
commander in the region John Abizaid, said that US troop deployment in
Iraq was likely to remain at these levels well into 2007 in order to
wrest Baghdad and other provinces from the day-to-day control of
sectarian death squads and insurgent groups. In August, General Abizaid,
the most senior Arab-American in uniform who has a reputation for being
a straight talker, surprised many when he told the Senate armed services
committee that Iraq could be heading towards civil war. This
contradicted the Bush administration's view that the situation was
gradually improving. As many as 20,000 Iraqi civilians have been killed
in 2006 - although estimates vary drastically. "The Bush
administration has complicated its task in Iraq by talking up the
rhetoric at home of 'standing down as they stand up'",
said Tony Cordesmann, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington. "But in practice Bush has
responded to what the commanders are requesting on the ground, which is
more troops and, to a lesser extent, more equipment". However, the
increase in deployment comes amid growing complaints from senior
generals about the overstretch of US military units, some of which have
served more than one tour of duty in Iraq and also in Afghanistan, where
US troop levels have also risen this year from 15,800 to 20,000 owing to the resurgence of Taliban forces. There are also concerns about pressure
to send regular military and National Guard units back to Iraq within
the one-year pause that is customary. In addition, the army and National
Guard have both recently relaxed recruiting standards by raising the
maximum age and improving the one-off cash payment as an incentive for
new recruits. Worries about the Bush administration's handling of
the increasingly unpopular war in Iraq intensified when the New York Times and Washington Post leaked contents of a classified US National
Intelligence estimate from April that said America's invasion of
Iraq in 2003 had exacerbated the threat from Islamist terrorist groups.
The report, which was submitted to Bush in April, also said that the
overall threat from Islamist terror groups had grown since 9/11 attacks.
The disclosure comes just six weeks before critical mid-term elections,
where Bush's Republicans face the threat of losing control of the
House of Representatives. The opposition Democrats have fielded a number
of Iraq war veterans in order to bolster their credibility as patriotic
critics of the war in Iraq. Bush has ignored continuing calls by retired
US generals - most recently on Monday - to sack Def Sec Donald Rumsfeld,
over his handling of the war in Iraq.
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