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ADVANCE ECONOMIC BAROMETER STABLE IN APRIL

 DETROIT, May 26 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. economy remains on a path for modest growth over the next two quarters, according to the Advance Economic Barometer compiled by Comerica Bank. In April, the Barometer was relatively unchanged from March, registering a value of 2.6. At its current mark, the Barometer is projecting U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3 percent over the next two quarters.
 Over the past four months, the Advance Economic Barometer has dropped nearly two points, signifying 3 percent inflation-adjusted economic growth compared to the 4 percent pace in the second half of 1992.
 The lower values for the Barometer are primarily due to weaker growth for the monetary components. Specifically, inflation-adjusted growth for both monetary components -- M3 and the monetary base -- have slipped since year end 1992. Of the two components, M3 has remained very weak, while the monetary base (defined as band reserves plus currency) has been strong. The likelihood of faster expected economic growth, placing greater emphasis on the monetary base money component, is strong.
 The other two variables of the Advance Economic Barometer -- the yield curve spread and the government's index of leading indicators -- continue to forecast real GDP growth rates of 4 percent or higher.
 Comerica Bank's economic forecast remains among the top quartile in the Blue Chip Economic Survey.
 The Advance Economic Barometer combines three series into a single, balanced and comprehensive leading indicator: inflation-adjusted money growth, yield curve spread, and the Commerce Department's Index of Leading Indicators.
 -0- 5/26/93
 /CONTACT: David G. Sowerby, Vice President and Economist, Comerica Incorporated, 313-222-4829/
 (CMA)


CO: Comerica Bank ST: Michigan IN: FIN SU: ECO

JG -- DE021 -- 2547 05/26/93 14:55 EDT
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:May 26, 1993
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