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ADVANCE ECONOMIC BAROMETER SLIPS IN MARCH

 DETROIT, April 22 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. business activity may slow in the second half of 1993 as indicated by a March decline for the Advance Economic Barometer compiled by Comerica Bank. In March, the Barometer dropped to a value of 3.0, compared to February's revised mark of 3.6.
 The Advance Economic Barometer has now dropped for three straight months from a value of 4.4 achieved in December 1992.
 Together, the variables which comprise the Advance Economic Barometer are projecting U.S. real GDP growth of 3.0 percent in the second half of 1993, approximately a full percentage point lower than current growth rates for U.S. real GDP.
 The recent declines for the Barometer are primarily due to weaker monetary growth rates. Both the monetary base and M3 money supply measurements slowed in the first quarter with inflation-adjusted M3 growth remaining negative and


the monetary base slowing from its very strong pace at year-end 1992. The two other components of the Barometer -- the yield curve spread and the government's index of leading indicators -- experienced modest declines in March.
 The Advance Economic Barometer combines three series into a single, balanced and comprehensive leading indicator: inflation-adjusted money growth, yield curve spread, and the Commerce Department's Index of Leading Indicators.
 -0- 4/22/93
 /CONTACT: David G. Sowerby, Vice President & Economist, Comerica Incorporated, 313-222-4829/
 (CMA)


CO: Comerica Incorporated ST: Michigan IN: FIN SU: ECO

ML -- DE013 -- 9245 04/22/93 09:36 EDT
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Apr 22, 1993
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