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AAP HOPES TO MOP UP BSP SEATS.

A AM DMI Party has been positioned by pre- poll surveys as victor, vanquished or spoiler.

Some put P ahead of the Congress and the BJP, some position the party as a potential king- maker. But a possible clue of its potential lies in the symbolism of its election symbol, the broom.

A close analysis of 2008 election data reveals that of the 70 seats in the Delhi election, Kejriwal and his party could change the political equation in at least twenty. The numbers reveal that 24 seats saw a strong Bahujan Samaj Party ( BSP) vote, which was like the P was a new- comer to Delhi, without any of the buzz that surrounds P. Yet, though the party won only two the 70 seats it contested but in 24 seats it got more than 15 per cent of the vote and of these, in 20 seats it got more than 20 per cent of the vote. In some seats it was as high as 30 per cent ( see box).

It is this BSP vote that could benefit P, political analysts say. S. K. Sharma, former secretary, Delhi assembly and Lok Sabha said, " See the party symbol.

Broom, which is livelihood of the people of a community.

Respect

People living in resettlement colonies and slum areas have started thinking that Kejriwal has given respect to broom. It will not be a surprise if they go for P." P too has figured this out, if its campaigning pattern is analysed. People associated with P said that party's volunteers are focusing in such areas. They are reaching door to door and ask about their problems. M AIL T ODAY followed Kejriwal's campaigning in the colonies like resettlement colonies like Sangam Vihar and others, where he talked about issues that directly affect the locals, like water supply, sewage and roads -- all of which are in short supply in such areas.

" You see the mood of people.

Surveys are saying that P will become victorious on 15 or more seats. There must be something to it. This time anti- incumbency is going to work. People have become aware of the politics of this country and many of them want a true alternative. Nothing can be predicted before the polls, but, you can't ignore the mood of public," added Sharma.

With all these analysis and poll projections, it can be said that political fight is going to be neck and neck this time. Nothing can be said on P's winning seats in upcoming assembly polls on December 4, but, it is certain that it will cut into the voting share of both the parties making the fight tougher.

MAKING A MARK

There were 24 seats where the BSP had managed to register its presence in the 2008 Assembly elections. BSP candidates got 20% or more votes on those seats.

This time the P can replace the BSP. People from Balmiki community or residents of slums and resettlement colonies had voted for BSP. Now Kejriwal has given respect to the broom, which is their source of livelihood.

There were seven seats where the winning candidates did not get even 33% of votes as the vote share got divided among different contestants. The P can gain in these seats.

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Publication:Mail Today (New Delhi, India)
Date:Nov 3, 2013
Words:558
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