A New Energy Paradigm for the 21st Century.
At the close of the 20th century, however, a new energy paradigm, forged by technological advances, resource and environmental constraints and socioeconomic demands, has begun to emerge. This paradigm is based not on a finite stock of fossil fuels, but on a virtually limitless flow of renewable energy--sun, wind, water, wood, the earth s heat--and on the most abundant element in the universe: hydrogen. Whereas today's dominant energy model is centralized, large-scale and focused on increasing supply, its successor will be decentralized, downsized and directed toward meeting demand.(4) The energy system, in other words, is undergoing a sort of glasnost and perestroika similar to that seen in the economic and political systems of the Soviet Union a decade ago. Now as then, the broader implications of this upheaval are likely to be nothing less than revolutionary.
This energy paradigm shift may have particularly dramatic repercussions for today's international system. The new model has the potential to mitigate security threats that are both familiar and new, such as dependence on imported oil and climate destabilization. Such a model may be especially welcome in the developing world, where 4 billion people have been underserved or entirely bypassed by the conventional energy system.(5) The structure will create new economic and political rewards, transforming the roles of government and industry in the energy sector. It is likely to broaden the geopolitics of energy, which traditionally has been preoccupied with resource conflict, to include the new dynamic of environmental cooperation.
Radical as this worldview may seem relative to traditional views on energy, it has found its way into the speeches of major oil company leaders. In a remarkable message delivered in Houston, the capital of the American petroleum industry, Michael Bowlin, then chairman and chief executive officer of ARCO, announced to fellow executives in February 1999, "We've embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil.... Conditions are converging for another sea change in the energy use mix--along the spectrum away from carbon and headed toward hydrogen and other forms of energy." Bowlin concluded with a challenge to fellow oil executives that applies equally to nation-states: "Embrace the future and recognize the growing demand for a wide array of fuels; or ignore reality and slowly but surely be left behind."(6)
Like the hydrocarbon era that preceded it, the dawning solar-hydrogen age carries its own set of risks and opportunities, as well as its own set of winners and losers. Nations that anticipate and position themselves for the transition are likely to reap an array of social, economic and environmental benefits. Those who remain mired in the status quo will only prolong the fossil-fuel legacy of ecological instability and political insecurity, leaving them less prepared to face the challenges of the new millennium.
FUELING THE TRANSITION
Technological change alone cannot account for the emergence of the new energy paradigm. Past transitions--from wood to coal, from coal to oil--have also been influenced by a volatile mix of forces, including resource limitations and environmental and socioeconomic issues. America's oil-based economy developed from new technologies, the discovery of plentiful oil, the desire for cleaner alternatives to horse-drawn carriages and the popularity of gas-lighting. Similar forces exist today, though their relative importance has changed in significant ways.
The Limits to Cheap Oil
Resource limits could help push the world away from fossil fuels in coming decades. Oil is the leading energy source today, with a 34 percent share of commercial use; natural gas has emerged as an environmentally-preferred alternative for many uses, and accounts for 23 percent; and coal, retaining a grip on power generation, holds a 22 percent share.(7) While reserves of natural gas and coal are believed sufficient to last past the 21st century, those of oil are not. In much the same way that 17th century Britain ran out of cheap wood, today's concerns center on the possibility of running out of inexpensive petroleum.
While the size of the remaining oil resource is hardly a new issue, the latest wave of worry has been led by geologists from the oil industry itself. Geologists Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere estimate that roughly 1 trillion barrels of oil--little more than half the original resource--remain to be extracted.(8) Extrapolating their figures results in a projected peak (and subsequent reduction) in world production by the year 2010; applying more optimistic resource estimates from other oil experts prolongs the peak by only a decade.
A peak in world oil production early in the next century raises issues for prospective new consumers. The problem is less the large amount of oil currently used--67 million barrels daily(9)--than the intent of many developing countries, most lacking sizable indigenous supplies, to increase their use of oil for automobiles and trucks. Even if industrial-country oil use were to plateau, meeting the growing needs of China, India and the rest of the developing world via the petroleum-heavy path of the industrial world would require a tripling of world oil production by 2020--a point at which production may well be declining.(10)
Hitting Environmental Limits
Ecological constraints, however, are likely to influence the evolution of the new system more than resource limits. The burning of fossil-fuels is a leading source of air pollution and a leading cause of water and land degradation. Combustion of coal and oil produces carbon monoxide and tiny particles that are associated with lung cancer and other respiratory problems. Nitrogen and sulfur oxides form urban smog, bringing acid rain that damages forests, bodies of water and historic buildings. Water quality is further degraded by the toxins released in oil spills, refinery operations and coal mining. More and more, oil exploration disrupts fragile ecosystems and coal mining removes entire mountains. Although in recent decades modern pollution controls have improved the air quality in most industrial countries, the deadly experiences of London's 1952 "fog" that killed 4,000 risks being repeated in Mexico City Sao Paulo, New Delhi, Bangkok and many other cities in the developing world.(11) Each year, coal burning contributes to an estimated 178,000 premature deaths in China's cities.(12)
Beyond these local and regional problems lie the cumulative global environmental threats that undermine the long-term sustainability of the current energy system. More than 200 years after people began burning the sequestered sunlight of fossilized plants that took millions of years to accumulate, scientists have discovered that the carbon that those fuels produce is disrupting the earth's energy balance, causing the planet to warm. Fossil fuel combustion has increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide ([CO.sub.2]) by more than 32 percent since pre-industrial times. [CO.sub.2] levels are now at their highest point in 160,000 years, and global temperatures at their highest in at least 1,200 years.(13) Climatologists have determined that these human activities have ended the period of relative stability in the atmosphere that has endured over 10,000 years, and which has permitted the rise of agricultural and industrial society.(14)
In 1995 the 2,500 members of the United Nations-appointed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reached, for the first time, consensus on the existence of anthropogenic warming: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate."(15) The IPCC also agreed that the planet has warmed between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century. Should current emission trends continue, global temperatures will increase by another 1.0 to 3.5 degrees during the 21st century.
A broad range of social, economic and environmental dislocations are projected to result from this warming. These include, but are not limited to, rising sea levels and reduced coastal areas; an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events; a greater incidence and range of infectious diseases; an overall reduction in the productivity of agriculture and forest systems and in freshwater availability; and the forced redistribution and loss of temperature-sensitive species.(16) Climate change is anticipated to become a major additional stress on a number of existing environmental pressures already confronting the human species--from water shortages to land degradation to air pollution. While developing countries--particularly sub-Saharan Africa and low-lying small island states--will by virtue of economic situation and geography be hit hardest, many regions in the industrial world, from the U.S. midwest to the United Kingdom to Australia, are also vulnerable to severe and potentially irreversible impacts.(17)
Signs of a warming world--retreating ice shelves, receding glaciers, dying coral reefs, migrating and disappearing plants and animals--are virtually ubiquitous.(18) Perhaps the most notable evidence has been erratic weather patterns. The extraordinarily high temperatures of 1998--the warmest since measurements were first recorded in 1866--were influenced by, but outlasted considerably, an unusually strong El Nino phenomenon.(19) This contributed to a string of climatic extremes: droughts and rare fires in tropical and subtropical forests from Indonesia to Mexico; historic floods in China and Bangladesh; severe storms and epidemics in Africa and North and South America; and killer heat waves in the United States, southern Europe and India. All told, weather-related disasters in 1998 resulted in $92 billion in economic losses, 53 percent more than the previous record of $60 billion in 1996 and more than the losses of the entire decade of the 1980s. These events also took at least 41,000 lives and resulted in the displacement of an estimated 300 million people, more than the entire population of the United States.(20)
As climate change accelerates, the unusual weather of 1998 can be expected to continue, with grave consequences for millions of people. A "business-as-usual" climate model by the British Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research predicts that by 2050 there will be a 90 million ton shortfall of food, placing an additional 30 million people--mostly in Africa--at risk of starvation. The model predicts that 66 million more people will face water stress and that 20 million more will be at risk of flooding. The proportion of world population at risk of malaria will also increase--mainly in areas currently free of the disease.(21)
The Hadley scenario also projects a significant decline in tropical forests and the desertification of tropical grasslands, creating a positive feedback as this vegetation loss releases additional carbon to the atmosphere. Accelerating climatic change increases the likelihood of surprises like these. Once thought to be "linear," the climate is now thought of as a chaotic system that can switch abruptly to another equilibrium after crossing a temperature threshold.(22) Previous dramatic changes in climate have coincided with the collapse of ancient civilizations in the Americas, Europe and Africa.(23) Past events for which scientists have evidence and that may recur in a rapidly changing climate include the shutdown of the ocean's heat-carrying conveyor belt,(24) a phenomenon which once gave Dublin the climate of chilly Spitsbergen, nearly 1,000 miles north of the Arctic Circle; and "megadroughts" in mid-continental North America that at one time dried up the region's agricultural breadbasket.(25) Debate also surrounds the potential instability of the West Antarctic ice sheet, whose collapse could raise sea levels by four to six meters, causing major flooding worldwide. While such an irreversible event may not take place during the next century, rising greenhouse gas concentrations over this period raise the odds of it occurring at a later date.(26)
The best scientific estimates suggest that stabilizing atmospheric [CO.sub.2] concentrations at safe levels will require a 60 to 80 percent cut in carbon emissions from current levels over the next century.(27) While the global energy system has been "decarbonizing" over the last 200 years, moving to less carbon-intensive fuels and improving energy efficiency,(28) the rate of change will need to accelerate significantly to meet this objective. Though a very small step on a long journey, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change may be moving us toward the end of the fossil fuel-based economy.(29)
Energy For Society
Another major driver of the new system will be the changing needs of societies, rich and poor alike. Some historians argue that coal overtook wood in industrializing nations mainly because these societies were changing from a rural, agrarian structure to an urban one.(30) Coal's abundance and its usefulness as a concentrated source of energy allowed massive growth in the new industries and booming cities of the early 19th century; while coal did not bring about this transition, it did facilitate it. Interestingly, the success of watermills and windmills in promoting early industrialization created an expanded energy demand that could only be met by the coal-fired steam engine.
The fast-growth sectors of the 20th century economy are no longer the production of food or automobiles, but instead software, telecommunications and services ranging from finance and news to education and entertainment. As with the Industrial Revolution that preceded it, the Information Revolution will have its own particular energy needs. Reliability is likely to be a top priority--since computer systems running many of the operations in heavy industry freeze up when power is cut off for a mere fraction of a second. Of course, vulnerability also characterizes the current energy system of machines and networks of above-ground wires and pipelines.(31)
The present system is also centralized, while much of the service economy today can be conducted from far-flung locations that are connected through the Internet and demand more localized, autonomous energy supplies than can be met by power grids or gas lines. As with the water wheel, so with oil: the growing demands of the new economy might not be met by the energy system that launched it.
The energy requirements of the developing world--where half or more of new investment are projected to take place(32)--could very well be the leading driver of energy markets. The demands of growing populations drove 18th century Great Britain to shift to coal, and the 20th century United States to move to oil. Analogous shifts can be expected as more than four billion people seek clean, affordable and reliable energy services in the coming years. A decentralized system based on renewables and hydrogen promises to provide such services sooner and more widely.
What exactly does this new energy economy look like? It is too soon to tell for certain. Energy systems often take time to take shape and to diffuse into broader use. The 20th century industrial model, for example, was based on devices such as the incandescent light bulb, electric dynamo and the internal combustion engine which were invented in the late 19th century but did not become widespread until decades later.(33) The same can be said of renewable energy and hydrogen. Long the province of visionaries, mad scientists and tinkering engineers, renewables and hydrogen are only now becoming formidable competitors with conventional fuels.
Silicon, Synthetics, Semiconductors
The coming of age of these technologies lies in the late 20th-century fields of electronics, synthetic materials, biotechnology and software.(34) The silicon semiconductor chip--promising to increase processing power and miniaturize electronic devices--is allowing energy use to be matched more closely to the actual location and amount needed. The wider use of these chips not only offers efficiency gains in appliances, buildings, industry and transport, but also makes it possible to control virtually all energy-using devices, turning them on and off as the situation demands.(35) Thanks in large part to electronic controls, small-scale, modular technologies have begun to challenge the large-scale energy devices of the 20th century.
Credit is also due to breakthroughs in materials science--the application of chemistry to improve and create new fabrics--that have given rise to sophisticated, lightweight devices that operate without moving parts. Consequently, new energy technologies feature innovations already commonly used for other purposes. Modern wind turbines are made of the same carbon-fiber synthetic materials that are found in bullet-proof vests. The newest fuel cells are lined by Goretex synthetic membranes.(36)
The search for successors to Thomas Edison's incandescent bulb is one shining example of the diverse energy applications of recent scientific developments. Improvements in small-scale electronic ballasts have given rise to the compact fluorescent lamp (CFL), which requires just one-quarter the electricity of incandescent bulbs and last 10 times longer.(37) Manufacturers are now working on more advanced models with even smaller ballasts that work with any light socket and cost half as much as today's models. A quantum leap in efficiency promises to come from the light-emitting diode, a solid-state semiconductor device that emits a bright light and has twice the efficiency and ten times the lifetime of CFLs.
The Renewables: Wind, Sun, Water, Wood, Heat
Technological innovation has also transformed traditional renewable energy sources on which our species has predominantly relied for most of its existence.(38) Windmills, first used to grind grain in Persia more than 1,000 years ago, are now a viable option for generating electricity. The latest models, manufactured by companies based in Germany, India, Spain and the United States, boast variable-pitch fiberglass blades as long as 40 meters, electronic variable speed drives and sophisticated microprocessor controls.(39) As a result, the cost of generating wind power has fallen precipitously, from $2,600 per kilowatt in 1981 to $800 in 1998, making it economically competitive with coal-generated electricity. The wind-power market, valued at roughly $2 billion in 1998, has seen annual growth rates of more than 20 percent during the 1990s, making it the world's fastest-growing energy source.(40)
Solar energy, too, is benefiting from modern science. The photovoltaic (PV) cell, a wafer-thin semiconductor that converts solar radiation into electricity, has in recent decades reached off-grid applications as a power source for satellites and remote communications systems, and has appeared in consumer electronic devices like pocket calculators and watches. The average factory price of PV modules has dropped dramatically, from roughly $80 per watt in 1975 to $4 in 1998. Recent improvements in cell efficiency and materials are making these modules viable for building-based generation, where they can serve as shingles, tiles or window glass.(41) Shipments of solar PV cells have grown more than 16 percent annually during the 1990s, a close second place in the category of fastest-growing energy sources.(42)
Several additional renewable sources will play important roles in the emerging system. Modest growth is expected in hydroelectric power, though in smaller dams than the ones popular in the 1950s. Biomass energy, derived from agricultural and forest residues, already accounts for 14 percent of world energy. With modern conversion technologies, biomass energy may become a viable electricity or automotive fuel source.(43) The use of geothermal energy--heat from the center of the earth--is also likely to increase slowly but steadily; this source is less evenly distributed, and can contribute significantly only in some regions. While these sources face inherent economic and ecological constraints and slower growth rates than solar and wind power, they too represent essential ingredients in the energy mix of the future.(44)
Fuel Cells: From Space to Planet Earth
The technology that could most reshape the energy system--the fuel cell--was first discovered in 1829, five decades before the internal combustion engine.(45) Fuel cells rely on an electrochemical process that combines hydrogen and oxygen, producing water vapor and electricity. While the fuel cell received some interest at the turn of the 20th century, large efficiency improvements were needed before its first modern application in the U.S. space program in the 1960s.
Avoiding the inherent inefficiency that accompanies combustion, fuel cells are approximately twice as efficient as conventional engines, have no moving parts, require little maintenance, are almost silent and emit nothing but water vapor. Their modularity also makes the economies of scale that now dominate energy production less important than economies of production--they are almost as economical on a small scale as they are on a large one.
While most expect the first fuel cells to run on gasoline or natural gas, they may eventually be fueled by pure hydrogen that is separated from water by electrolysis. Researchers are now testing various catalysts that, when put in water and illuminated by sunlight, may someday produce inexpensive hydrogen. Chemists have recently developed a solar-powered "water splitter" that nearly doubles the efficiency of converting solar energy to hydrogen.(46) A growing number of experts believe that finding a cheap and efficient way to electrolyze water may make hydrogen as dominant an energy carrier in the 21st century as oil was during the 20th.(47)
With an Eye to the Future
Many of today's energy analysts contend that it will take a long time for the technologies of the new system to become competitive with fossil fuels. But to fixate on the current cost gap is to neglect a principle discovered earlier this century by Henry Ford. Through mass production, Ford witnessed a cost-reduction for the Model T automobile of 65 percent between 1909 and 1923.(48) As with the Model T, the costs of the new modular energy devices can be expected to fall significantly as their markets expand.
Historically, energy innovations have first gained a foothold in niches where they were, for a number of reasons, preferable to the conventional source. Indeed, petroleum's first market use was quite modest but important. It replaced the whale oil used in lighting kerosene lamps. The new technologies are likewise maturing to occupy small niches that spur greater investment and manufacturing. The upswing in shipments of solar PV cells is due to the expanding niche markets of highway signals, water pumps and a half-million homes that are not connected to the conventional power grid, for which solar cells are the cheapest source of electricity.(49) Fuel cells are showing up in buses, hospitals, residential houses, military bases and wastewater treatment plants. Possible future uses include cellular phones and laptop computers.
Downsized, Decentralized, Diversified
Information systems--in the midst of downsizing and decentralization--will also nurture the embryonic energy system, as they help to ensure the reliability of a distributed power system through instantaneous telecommunications and sophisticated electronic controls coordinating millions of individual generators. This is similar to how the Internet functions today.(50) Computer and telecommunication companies are developing "intelligent" power systems that can send signals over phone lines, cable television wires and electric lines, while providing price information to electronic appliances. In response to such price information, micro-generators and air conditioners can be programmed to provide power to the grid or to store it as demand fluctuates--such as in the form of hydrogen. Fine-tuning the balance between electricity supply and demand increases the efficiency of the new system, saving money and reducing pollution.
While self-sufficient in energy for much of history, buildings in the last century have become dependent on increasingly distant sources of supply. A distributed energy system using rooftop solar systems, fuel cells and flywheels would allow buildings to once again meet most of their own energy needs, and even to become net energy generators that sell excess power back to the grid. Basement fuel cells could act like power plants and furnaces, providing electricity and heat during the day, while automobiles and electric bicycles might become home appliances to supply and be replenished with hydrogen or electricity at night. "Zero net energy" buildings can be tightly designed to rely on passive solar energy and the body heat of occupants. Buildings themselves could be constructed from mass-produced components and modules that can be shipped to a site and assembled.(51)
Automobiles will also be reshaped. The weight demands of competing successors to the internal-combustion engine--electric batteries, flywheels and fuel cells--are forcing engineers to make the rest of the vehicle as light as possible. The first "hybrid-electric" vehicle--one which combines an electric motor and internal combustion engine--to become commercially available, Toyota's Prius, is twice as fuel-efficient as the average U.S. car.(52) Trucks, locomotives and other heavy vehicles that can handle the relative size and weight of the early energy storage devices are expected to utilize and adapt to them in coming decades.
To operate a modular energy system using renewable resources requires that the system accommodate their intermittent nature. Solar power, for example, is strongest at midday--making it an ideal supplementary power source during peak demand but posing challenges for nighttime use. One short-term step might be to build backup generators using efficient gas turbines or pumped water storage; new technologies such as compressed air, plastic batteries, flywheels and other energy storage devices might also have roles to play. Ultimately, however, a reliable, diversified energy system based on renewable sources is likely to rely on the use of hydrogen as a major energy carrier and storage medium.
Here Comes Hydrogen
A central challenge in constructing the new energy economy is to develop a system for storing and transporting hydrogen. In the long run, materials that can store large amounts of hydrogen, such as carbon nanotubes, are being developed for use in electric vehicles and other applications.(53) But in the meantime, hydrogen for the first fuel cells can be derived from natural gas, thus taking advantage of the extensive natural gas pipelines and other related infrastructure already in place. Small-scale reforming units that convert natural gas into hydrogen could be placed in homes, office buildings and service stations. The carbon dioxide released from this conversion, which is less than from internal combustion engines, could be turned into plastics or sequestered in underground or undersea reservoirs. The cost-effectiveness and possible environmental effects of sequestration, however, remain largely unknown.(54)
The use of natural gas as a "bridge" to hydrogen could allow for a relatively seamless transition to a renewable hydrogen energy system.(55) Hydrogen can be mixed with natural gas and carried in existing pipelines. It can later be transported through rebuilt pipelines and compressors that are designed to carry pure hydrogen. Remote wind farms or solar power sites that generate large amounts of electricity could electrolyze hydrogen and store it underground. Similarly, homeowners might produce hydrogen from rooftop solar cells and store it in the basement. Meanwhile, another niche for hydrogen beckons: air transport, which still relies heavily on the same kerosene that once gave way to the rise of oil.
NEW POWERS, NEW PRIZES
A turning point for the hydrocarbon age came in 1911, when Lord Winston Churchill decided to convert the British war fleet from coal to oil. Many war experts deemed the move risky and expensive, but Churchill viewed the switch to oil as a strategic military imperative, necessary for providing the additional speed and power needed to challenge the German navy on the high seas. Within a matter of years, freighters and passenger ships had made the transition to oil.
The world history of energy appears to be coming full circle. In 1997 the prime minister of Iceland unveiled plans to convert his country to a "hydrogen economy" within 15 to 20 years.(56) Many energy experts still believe hydrogen too costly and dangerous a fuel, but the Icelandic government considers the switch to hydrogen a political necessity for meeting the nation's Kyoto commitment to fight climate change. Iceland has enlisted the aid of several private companies to shift its relatively large fishing fleet to hydrogen, and its transportation system to methanol and hydrogen. In February 1999 DaimlerChrysler, Shell and several Norwegian and Icelandic firms formed the Icelandic Hydrogen Fuel Cell Company, a joint venture to help shift the country away from fossil fuels--particularly gasoline and diesel fuel.(57) Iceland is also gearing up to become an energy exporter. In January 1999 Germany opened Europe's first public and commercial hydrogen gas station for cars and trucks, to be supplied by Icelandic hydrogen.(58)
The events unfolding in Iceland may be merely the tip of the iceberg. Around the world, the emergence of a renewables-hydrogen energy system is likely to have an enormous impact on the international system, creating new powers and prizes. Its effects can be expected to reverberate throughout nation-states, the energy business and society It may force us to reconsider issues such as resource endowments, the benefits of carbon-free development, the actions and interactions of governments and industries, as well as the underlying assumptions of energy geopolitics.
Reassessing Resource Endowments
The renewable-hydrogen economy could realign the international fault lines that have defined the geopolitical positions of recent decades. Unevenly distributed across the globe, oil offers disproportionate power to those with access to these concentrated stocks--particularly the United States, Russia and the Middle East. But should petroleum become less of a "prize" and more of a risky investment as the world turns toward renewables and hydrogen, Western economies might decide to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern supplies. This, in turn, might decrease the possibility of future crises, as more than half the world's oil is traded internationally in the global economy
The new energy economy will be based primarily on resources that are both more abundant and more evenly distributed than petroleum and other fossil fuels. Nonetheless, some countries are better endowed with renewable energy resources than others. Mexico, India and South Africa are particularly well positioned to deploy solar energy, while Canada, China and Russia have especially large wind resources. In fact, China's wind regime is large enough to double its current electricity use.(59) Still, while some nations could export electricity generated by renewables or hydrogen, few are likely to depend mainly on energy imports. One can envision the international energy balance becoming more like today's world food economy, where some countries are net exporters and others importers, but the majority produce most of their own food. That is, energy would become a more "normal" commodity, one rather than constantly on the verge of instigating an international crisis.
The more equitable distribution of renewable energy resources suggests that leadership in the new industries may go not to those who by fate of geography have access to them, but rather to those with the know-how, skilled labor, openness to innovation, efficient financial structures and strategic foresight to tap them. At the moment, the world's three leading technological powers--Germany, Japan and the United States--are ahead of the pack in developing many of the key devices. Germany's seven-year-old wind power industry is the world's leader, accounting for more than 1 percent of the nation's energy and 11 percent in the northernmost state of Schleswig-Holstein.(60) Japan is first in installations of solar PV cells, boasting two of the five leading world manufacturers.(61) The United States, which led the development of these technologies, is scrambling to catch up in commercializing them. Denmark, with its preeminence in wind power, has illustrated that a nation will not have to be large or powerful to gain an edge in this energy market; wind power accounts for 8 percent of the country's electricity and more than half the global wind power market is now supplied by Danish firms or licensees--an achievement brought about by a two-decade-long strategic partnership between government and industry.(62)
The conditions for implementing the new energy system are most fertile in developing countries, many of which are far better endowed with renewable energy sources than with fossil fuels. Often characterized by embryonic energy systems and massively underserved populations far from the electrical grid, they may be especially receptive to a decentralized, demand-based energy system that can meet burgeoning energy needs and stimulate new, job-creating industries. China and India, which share concerns of large populations and growing energy demands, are especially well-situated to become leading centers of this nascent energy system. This would suggest a reversal in the flow of initiative and innovation between East and West--and perhaps precipitate a broader shift in the world's economic and political center of gravity back to Asia, where it was a millennium ago. Brazil, with its vast supplies of renewable resources, might become a major player in the emerging energy economy in Latin America.
There are strong suggestions that developing nations will leapfrog over the relatively dirty, inefficient energy systems of today's industrial world. Brazil is home to the world's largest renewable energy program: sugarcane-derived ethanol is used in some four million cars, displacing half of the entire fleet's gasoline and providing rural employment. Costa Rica plans to phase out fossil fuel use for electricity generation by 2010 and has instituted a 15 percent carbon tax. The world's fourth-leading user of wind power is India. The largest energy efficient-lighting program can be found in Mexico and the biggest home solar PV cell program is in Indonesia. China's energy conservation program since 1980 has reduced carbon output to half of what it would be otherwise. Its existing use of wind, biogas, small hydropower and tidal energy already displaces 223 million tons of carbon--26 percent of its overall emissions that would otherwise come from coal-fired power plants.(63)
While these efforts will reduce developing countries' contribution to global warming, they were adopted for their myriad development benefits: increasing rural electrification, creating new jobs, reducing poverty, lightening the energy load of women and children, lessening local air pollution, lowering reliance on oil imports and tightening the government's fiscal belt. Even greater economic opportunities lie ahead. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), "Developing countries have the opportunity to become market leaders for various state-of-the-art and emerging sustainable energy technologies."(64) Research from the U.S. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory concurs, suggesting that China could become a market leader in manufacturing and commercializing energy-efficiency and renewable energy technologies, as it already has with CFL manufacturing.(65)
Making this new energy paradigm a reality should become over time a major strategic objective of governments. Nations have long held an interest in the energy industry for a variety of reasons: advancing national security, reducing oil import reliance and promoting technological innovations as a means of economic development. In the 21st century, the climate change battle could take on the kind of importance that wars--hot and cold alike--had in the 20th. Global climate change could, in fact, become the environmental equivalent of the Cold War, as a group of leading scientists recently argued.(66) War-related research and development, they observe, has produced such advances as commercial aviation, radar, computer chips and the Internet. The large-scale deployment of carbon-free energy technologies over the next 50 years, they conclude, may require an international effort conducted with the urgency of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo space program.
Both the public and private sectors could play crucial roles in the renewable-hydrogen economy. To be sure, many in the private sector were skeptical when British Petroleum (BP) chairman John Browne unexpectedly announced, as climate negotiations gathered momentum shortly before the historic Kyoto conference in 1997, that his company now took climate change seriously and would step up its deployment of solar energy. Like Churchill, Browne was at first ridiculed by oil-industry colleagues.(67) But since Kyoto there has been a stream of announcements from the energy, automobile and electric power industries on new partnerships, investments and breakthroughs in fuel cells, hydrogen and solar and wind power. The most surprising among them was the assertion of General Motors Chairman John Smith during the 1998 Detroit Auto Show that "no car company will be able to thrive in the 21 st century if it relies solely on internal-combustion engines."(68)
Governments are likely to struggle to redefine their roles in response to the climate challenge, employing a mix of market reforms and "command-and-control" regulation. Some European governments have set standards for connecting small-scale power generators to local electric systems, and determining the appropriate price--based on economic as well as environmental costs--to be paid for electricity. Other governments, from China to the United Kingdom, are streamlining their increasingly burdensome energy sectors by eliminating billions of dollars of subsidies to fossil fuels.(69) Denmark, Sweden and Italy have instituted carbon taxes as a step toward internalizing the energy system's pervasive social and environmental "externalities" that market prices traditionally ignore. Global climate change and globalization-induced unemployment increase the need to make labor less expensive relative to energy. Others may follow the path of Germany, whose Social Democrat-Green coalition agreed in late 1998 to an "ecological tax reform" package intended to finance reductions in labor costs by raising taxes on gasoline, heating oil, natural gas and electricity.(70)
An Industry Revolution
A renewables-hydrogen economy implies an industrial logic that is quite different than that of its predecessor. The behemoth size of the oil, automobile and electric power companies of the 20th century--epitomized by John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil(71)--was justified as a means to the end of exploiting economies of scale. High-volume, low-cost production required guaranteed markets, which in turn led to vertical integration and limited competition.
But in an echo of the chaotic early days of the oil industry, the energy business is again opening up to a new generation of entrepreneurs selling new devices, such as fuel cells, and services, such as the combined use of heat and power known as "cogeneration." National oil companies are being privatized, fuel prices are being decontrolled and the electric power industry--a government-owned or regulated monopoly in virtually every country--is being restructured worldwide.(72) The result is an ongoing proliferation of hundreds of start-up power producers, fuel cell companies and renewable energy firms, all ready to challenge the primacy of today's titans.
The electricity industry in particular is in flux. Independent power producers, a breed of essentially unregulated power suppliers, now number more than 300 worldwide and are growing especially quickly in Latin America and Asia.(73) Electric companies previously limited to specific regions have gone global, building power plants using natural gas-fired turbines--now the technology of choice--around the world. "Virtual utilities" are sprouting up as middlemen, matching up electricity supplies with customers, without owning any physical assets and having no previous investments to protect.(74) A handful of "green power marketers," offering customers electricity products derived from renewable sources in the United States, have braved the competitive frontier in California, Pennsylvania and parts of New England.(75) Where monopolies still prevail, utilities across the United States, Australia, Sweden and the United Kingdom--responding to surveys that suggest a strong consumer willingness to pay for a cleaner environment--are rushing to offer green pricing programs under which consumers support green-energy investments at the cost of small increases in their bills.
Oil companies are also trying to transform themselves into general energy companies. British Petroleum's solar subsidiary accounts for some 20 percent of the global photovoltaic market; the company plans to reach $1 billion in sales over the next decade.(76) Royal Dutch Shell appears even more ambitious. In 1997, it created a fifth core business in renewable energy, launching a five-year, $500 million investment--a small but significant start. In 1998, Shell established Shell Hydrogen, a subsidiary dedicated to finding new energy solutions. In signing its pioneering partnership with Iceland in February 1999, Jan Smeele, acting CEO of Shell Hydrogen, claimed that hydrogen and fuel cells "could possibly revolutionise the world's energy picture."(77)
It is not yet clear which kinds of companies will win the contracts for building the new energy system, surviving the competition to provide cleaner, more efficient and smaller-scale energy services. Similar to the shift from the mainframe to the personal computer in the early 1980s, the move to a decentralized energy system may make the market dominance of large players like Exxon and General Motors an item of purely historical interest, as smaller, more versatile players attract more business--much as Microsoft and Apple weakened IBM's dominance of the computer industry. Just as Rockefeller's Standard Oil created the paradigm of today's sprawling multinational corporation, tomorrow's small, nimble energy entrepreneurs--including innovative subsidiaries of large multinationals dedicated to alternative energy--could well set the standard for the next century's business model.
The Public-Private Interplay
New energy systems are constructed not by either governments or industries in isolation, but rather at their intersection. Governments focus primarily on the strategic, social and environmental dimensions of energy that the market alone cannot address, while industries seek, first and foremost, economic profit by harnessing supplies and providing services at the lowest possible cost. But their motives often overlap. Throughout the century, many governments have endeavored to give their domestic oil companies an edge.
While many have pointed out the growing privatization of the energy sector, there will remain a critical role for governments. Just as financial regulators are required in order to have a functioning stock market, so will a degree of regulation be essential for achieving a sustainable energy market. Governments will continue to be held responsible for setting emission limits, creating rules for grid interconnection of generators, supervising pricesetting on monopoly power lines, ensuring adequate disclosure of the source and emissions associated with the power being sold--along with, if necessary, "making sure the lights stay on."(78)
The most critical role for governments in creating the new energy economy may be to encourage long-term innovation. The influence of government policy on energy market competition is perhaps keenest in the automobile industry So far, German and Japanese automakers have been fastest to respond. Daimler Chrysler plans to be the first to market a fuel-cell vehicle in 2004, and Honda and Toyota are racing to bring their "hybrid-electric" vehicles to California by 1999 or 2000.(79) Decisions by the California state legislature in 1992 to mandate "zero-emission" vehicles, and by the U.S. government in 1993 to form a coalition with the "Big Three" automakers to design a new generation of technologies, have spurred the most innovation in the car business since the days of the Model T.
Rethinking the Geopolitics of Energy
Despite these impending changes, discussion of the international politics of energy still oozes oil, shaped more by the crises of the 1970s and 1980s than by the developments of the 1990s or future challenges.(80) Conflicts over the Caspian Sea, the Middle East and other oil hot spots predominate the literature of energy politics. Over time, however, this emphasis is more likely to shift with the rising influence of climate change on energy policies. Ultimately, the renewable-hydrogen system will likely force us to fundamentally rethink the geopolitics of energy.
In 20th-century energy geopolitics, petroleum has been the "prize," a resource to be obtained at the expense of conflict, overdependence and even lives lost in war. While the supply of oil may continue to play a part in international relations in the near term, during the last decade environmental pressures have begun to assume an increasingly important role. Under the calculus of the new energy system, the new "geopolitical imperatives" are decarbonizing the world economy and delivering energy services to the developing world. While there undoubtedly will be serious competition to reap the economic and environmental benefits of tapping carbon-free energy and lighting up rural villages, these overriding objectives cannot be achieved without extensive international cooperation. In fact, they are two sides of the same coin. Rich nations need the involvement of the poor to stabilize the climate. Poor nations need the support of the rich to leapfrog to the new system.
Cooperation may need to replace conflict as energy's dominant political philosophy if the new system is to be put in place in time to avoid serious climate disruptions and meet the burgeoning energy needs of the developing world without major political instability. In the future, the evolution of a renewables-hydrogen system is likely to be determined less by cartels such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and struggles over oil leases than by international climate change negotiations and bilateral energy technology cooperation agreements. Nations that take part in such cooperative efforts will profit from a range of social, economic and environmental benefits that accompany the transition to the new energy economy. Those that remain fixated on oil conflicts may find themselves the equivalent of military generals fighting the last war, unaware that the definition of the energy prize--and the method of winning it--has changed.
A diverse cast of characters--activists protesting air pollution, consumers seeking lower energy bills, villagers demanding power, governments and companies pursuing power and profits--has already begun to put this new energy model into place, and its numbers are growing with each passing day. While one might expect few traditional energy analysts or scenario planners to see such a far-reaching transformation on the horizon, an energy paradigm shift is undoubtedly underway, and its evolution will revolutionize international affairs during the next millennium.
(1) Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of The Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Vintage Books, 1987) pp. 151-158.
(2) ibid., pp. 210-215.
(3) Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1991) p. 778.
(4) See Christopher Flavin and Nicholas Lenssen, Power Surge: Guide to the Coming Revolution (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1994).
(5) Amulya K.N. Reddy, Robert H. Williams and Thomas B. Johansson, Energy After Rio: Prospects and Challenges (New York: United Nations Development Programme, 1997) p. 1.
(6) Mike R. Bowlin, "Clean Energy: Preparing Today for Tomorrow's Challenges," Speech before the Cambridge Energy Research Associates 18th Annual Executive Conference, Globality and Energy: Strategies for the New Millennium (Houston: 9 February 1999).
(7) Worldwatch estimate based on British Petroleum (BP), BP Statistical Review of World Energy 1998 (London: Group Media & Publications, June 1998) p. 38; and David O. Hall et al., "Biomass for Energy: Supply Prospects," in Renewable Energy: Sources for Fuels and Electricity, ed. Thomas B. Johansson et al. (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1993) p. 593.
(9) British Petroleum, p. 10.
(10) Richard A. Kerr, "The Next Oil Crisis Looms Large--and Perhaps Close," Science, 281, no. 21 (August 1998) pp. 1128-1131.
(11) World Resources Institute, World Resources 1998-99 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1998) p. 63.
(12) World Bank, Clear Water, Blue Skies: China in 2020 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1997) p. 19.
(13) Joby Warrick, "Earth at its Warmest in 12 Centuries," Washington Post, 8 December 1998, p. A4.
(14) J.T. Houghton et al., eds., "Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change," Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996) p. 3.
(15) ibid., p. 4.
(16) Robert T. Watson, Marufu C. Zinyowera and Richard H. Moss, eds., "Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses," Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996) pp. 3-18.
(17) See Robert T. Watson, Marufu C. Zinyowera and Richard H. Moss, eds., "The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability," A Special Report of Working Group II to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997).
(18) Molly O'Meara, "The Risks of Climate Change," World Watch, 10, no. 6 (November/ December 1997) pp. 10-24.
(19) William K. Stevens, "Earth Temperature In 1998 Is Reported At Record High," New York Times, 18 December 1998, p. A1.
(20) Seth Dunn, "Weather-Related Losses Hit New High," in Lester R. Brown, Michael Renner and Brian Halweil, Vital Signs 1999: The Environmental Trends That Are Shaping Our Future (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1999) pp. 74-75.
(21) See Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, Climate Change and its Impacts (London: November 1998).
(22) Houghton et al., eds., p. 7.
(23) Richard B. Alley and Peter B. de Menocal, "Abrupt Climate Changes Revisited: How Serious and How Likely?" Paper presented at U.S. Global Change Seminar Series (Washington, DC: 23 February 1998).
(24) William H. Calvin, "The Great Climate Flip-Flop," The Atlantic Monthly, 282, no. 1 (January 1998) pp. 47-64.
(25) Wallace S. Broecker, "Chaotic Climate," Scientific American, 276, no. 11 (November 1995) pp. 62-68; and Connie A. Woodhouse and Jonathan T. Overpeck, "2000 Years of Drought Variability in the Central United States," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, no. 12 (December 1998) p. 2693-2714.
(26) Michael Oppenheimer, "Global Warming and the Stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet," Nature, 393 (28 May 1998) pp. 325-332.
(27) Houghton et al., eds., p. 25.
(28) Nebojsa Nakicenovic, "Freeing Energy From Carbon," in Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, ed. Jesse H. Ausubel and H. Dale Langford (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1997) pp. 74-88.
(29) Bert Bolin, "The Kyoto Negotiations on Climate Change: A Science Perspective," Science, 279 (16 January 1998) pp. 330-331.
(30) Martin V. Melosi, "Energy Transitions in the Nineteenth-Century Economy," in Enery and Transport: Historical Perspectives on Policy Issues, ed. George H. Daniels and Mark H. Rose (London: Sage Publications, 1982) pp. 55-67.
(31) Anne Goodman, "Bringing Down the Power Lines," Tomorrow, 8, no. 5 (September/ October 1998) p. 35.
(32) Reddy, Williams and Johansson, p. 52.
(33) Melosi, pp. 55-67.
(34) See John P. Holdren et. al., Federal Energy Research and Development for the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century, Report of the Energy Research and Development Panel of the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology (Washington, DC: November 1997).
(35) World Resources Institute, Taking A Byte Out of Carbon (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 1998).
(36) See U.S. Department of Energy, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy Technologies by 2010 and Beyond (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, 1997).
(37) Nils Borg, "New Ballast May Start CFL Revolution," International Association for Energy-Efficient Lighting Newsletter (January 1998) pp. 1-3.
(38) See Vaclav Smil, Energy in World History (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994).
(39) Electric Power Research Institute, Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations (Palo Alto, CA: December 1997).
(40) Christopher Flavin, "Wind Power Sets Records," in Vital Signs 1998: The Environmental Trends That Are Shaping Our Future, ed. Lester R. Brown, Michael Renner and Christopher Flavin (Washington, DC: W.W. Norton & Co., 1998) pp. 58-59.
(41) Christopher Flavin and Molly O'Meara, "Solar Power Markets Boom," World Watch, 11, no. 5 (September/October 1998) pp. 23-27.
(42) Molly O'Meara, "Solar Cell Shipments Hit New High," in Brown, Renner and Flavin, pp. 60-61.
(43) Some proponents argue that new biocatalysts will make it possible to convert cellulosic biomass into cheap ethanol fuel. See Richard G. Lugar and R. James Woolsey, "The New Petroleum," Foreign Affairs, 78, no. 1 (January/February 1999) pp. 88-102.
(44) See Johansson et al., "Renewable Fuels and Electricity for a Growing World Economy," pp. 1-72.
(45) See Peter Hoffmann, The Forever Fuel: The Story of Hydrogen (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1981).
(46) Robert F. Service, "A Record in Converting Photons to Fuel," Science, 280, no. 17 (April 1998) p. 382; Oscar Khaselev and John A. Turner, "A Monolithic Photovoltaic-Photelectrochemical Device for Hydrogen Production via Water Splitting," Science, 280, no. 17 (April 1998) pp. 425-427.
(47) Holdren et al., ch. 6 and p. 34.
(48) Flavin and Lenssen, pp. 304-305.
(49) O'Meara in Brown, Renner and Flavin, pp. 60-61.
(50) Communication technologies, for example, permit the exchange of two-way, "real-time" information on voltage, power and energy flows, while control technologies provide automated responses to this information. See Walt Patterson, Transforming Electricity (London: Earthscan Publications Ltd., 1999) p. 100.
(51) See U.S. Department of Energy.
(52) "Toyota Plans Gas/Electric Hybrid for North America, Europe by 2000," Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition, 14 July 1998, p. A5.
(53) A.C. Dillon et al., "Storage of Hydrogen in Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes," Nature, 386, no. 27 (March 1997) pp. 377-379.
(54) David Schneider, "Burying the Problem," Scientific American, 278, no. 1 (January 1998) pp. 21-22; and E.A. Parson and D.W. Keith, "Fossil Fuels Without [CO.sub.2] Emissions," Science, 282, no. 5391 (6 November 1998) pp. 1053-1054.
(55) See Adam Serchuk and Rober Means, "Natural Gas: Bridge to a Renewable Energy Future," Issue Brief no. 8 (Washington, DC: Renewable Energy Policy Project, May 1997) pp. 1-25.
(56) Peter Hoffmann, "Iceland and Daimler-Benz/Ballard Start Plans for Hydrogen Economy," Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Letter, 13, no. 6 (June 1998).
(57) Miguel Llanos, "Iceland Heads to `Hydrogen Economy,'" MSNBC Nears, at http:// www.msnbc.com (18 February 1999).
(58) "Europe's First Hydrogen Fuel Station Opens, Renewable [H.sub.2] to Come from Iceland," Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Letter, 14, no. 2 (February 1999) pp. 1-3.
(59) Christopher Flavin, "Wind Power Blows to New Record," in Brown, Renner, and Halweil, pp. 52-53.
(61) Flavin and O'Meara, pp. 23-27.
(62) Flavin, "Wind Power Blows to New Record," pp. 52-53.
(63) Seth Dunn, "Can the North and South Get In Step?" World Watch, 11, no. 6 (November/December 1998) p. 24.
(64) Reddy, Williams and Johansson, p. 144.
(65) See William Chandler et al., China's Electric Power Options: An Analysis of Economic and Environmental Costs (Washington, DC: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 1998).
(66) Martin I. Hoffert et al., "Energy Implications of Future Stabilization of Atmospheric [CO.sub.2] Content," Nature, 35 (29 October 1998) pp. 881-884.
(67) John Browne, "International Relations: The New Agenda for Business," Speech before the 1998 Elliott Lecture (Oxford University: 4 June 1998).
(68) "Detroit Turns a Corner" (editorial), New York Times, 1 January 1998, p. A22.
(69) See David Malin Roodman, The Natural Wealth of Nations: Harnessing the Market for the Environment (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1998).
(70) Michael Renner, "Germany's New Green Agenda," World Watch, 12, no. 2 (March/ April 1999) p. 8.
(71) See Ron Chernow, Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller, Sr. (New York: Random House, 1998).
(72) Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle Between Government and the Marketplace that is Remaking the Modern World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1998) pp. 349-352.
(73) "The Balance of Power," Economist, 347, no. 8071 (6 June 1998) pp. 59-60.
(74) Karl R. Rabago, "Being Virtual: Beyond Restructuring and How We Get There," in The Virtual Utility: Accounting, Technology, and Competitive Aspects of the Emerging Industry, ed. Shimon Awerbuch and Alistair Preston (Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997) pp. 57-67.
(75) See Ryan H. Wiser et al., Green Power Marketing in Retail Competition: An Early Assessment (Boulder, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1999).
(76) "BP Amoco Completes Solarex Purchase From Enron--Forms World's Largest Photovoltaic Company," PV Nears, 8 April 1999, p. 1.
(77) Shell International Press Release, "Iceland: A Hydrogen-Based Economy" (17 February 1999).
(78) See Patterson.
(79) Stuart F. Brown, "The Automakers' Big-Time Bet on Fuel Cells," Fortune, 137, no. 7 (30 March 1998) p. 35; and Gregory L. White, "Honda Set to Sell Gas, Electric Car By Late Next Year," Wall Street Journal, 22 December 1998, p. B1.
(80) For an extended version of this argument, see John V. Mitchell, The New Geopolitics of Energy (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1996).
Christopher Flavin is senior vice president at the Worldwatch Institute, where he directs the Institute's research programs and heads its climate and energy team. Mr. Flavin has published articles in over 50 popular and scholarly periodicals, including Challenge, Environment, The Harvard International Review, New York Times, Technology Review and Time magazine. Each year he co-edits State of the World. In addition, Mr. Flavin has written five books on energy and environmental subjects, most recently Power Surge: Guide to the Coming Energy Revolution, published in 1994. Mr. Flavin graduated cum laude from Williams College in Massachusetts, where he studied economics and biology. In 1992 he helped found the Washington-based Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Seth Dunn is a research associate with the Worldwatch Institute, where he studies climate and energy issues. He is the co-author of "Rising Sun, Gathering Winds: Policies to Stabilize the Climate and Strengthen Economies," "Responding to the Threat of Climate Change," in State of the World 1998 and "Reinventing the Energy System," in State of the World 1999. He also contributes to the Institute's annual report Vital Signs and its bimonthly magazine, World Watch. Mr. Dunn's articles and op-eds have appeared in a number of publications, including The Amicus Journal, Christian Science Monitor, International Herald Tribune, Earth Times and Nature. Prior to joining the Worldwatch Institute, Mr. Dunn served as a consultant to the Natural Resources Defense Council, interned with the U.S. Climate Action Network and was a research assistant with the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy. He holds a B.A. in history and studies in the environment from Yale University.
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|Author:||Flavin, Christopher; Dunn, Seth|
|Publication:||Journal of International Affairs|
|Date:||Sep 22, 1999|
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