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10 Year Trends: Masaka winner Nasij can carry a penalty to victory.

Byline: Craig Thake

Swettenham Stud Fillies' Trial

2.20 Newbury

Key trends

lRaced as a juvenile, ten winners in ten runnings

lFrom first four in the betting, 10/10

lLost maiden tag, 9/10

lAdjusted Postmark of at least 111, 9/10

lRated within 5lb of Postmark top-rated, 8/10

lRan earlier in season, 8/10

lContested Pattern race last time out, 7/10

Other factors

Horses carrying penalties have fared quite well, finishing 6712623412.

Verdict

A good mix of proven performers and

unexposed fillies on show here. Geoff Wragg's two

previous runners both won, so Miss Ivanhoe may prove the pick of the lightly raced fillies, but

Nasij, winner of the Masaka Stakes, sets a good standard, and with penalised runners having gone well in the main, she is the one to beat.

Cantor Sport Carnarvon Stakes

1.45 Newbury

Key trends

lFigured in the top five in the market, 10/10

lAdjusted Postmark of at least 106, 10/10

lDistance winner, 9/10

lWon at a Class C or higher level, 8/10

Other factors

Despite the good record of fancied horses no favourite has obliged since 1992. However, seven favourites have finished second in the past ten years.

The four horses who had won that season had landed a six-furlong conditions event.

Only one filly has triumphed in the past decade.

Verdict

A tight contest with preference for Striking Ambition, who beat two of today's rivals in a similar event at Ascot.
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Article Details
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Title Annotation:Sports
Publication:The Racing Post (London, England)
Date:May 16, 2003
Words:245
Previous Article:Newbury: Hamilton's first Listed race draws a field of seven.
Next Article:Trading Bureau: Parisien primed to be the star turn.


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