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'THE DECADE OF ECONOMIC DISAPPOINTMENT' -- AWARD WINNING ECONOMIST SAYS U.S. BUSINESS MUST PLAN FOR SLOW RECOVERY

'THE DECADE OF ECONOMIC DISAPPOINTMENT' -- AWARD WINNING ECONOMIST SAYS
 U.S. BUSINESS MUST PLAN FOR SLOW RECOVERY
 NEW YORK, March 19 /PRNewswire/ -- Richard D. Karfunkle, 11th winner of Sterling National Bank & Trust Company's Annual Economic Forecasting Award (AEFA), told a gathering of top executives at the bank's headquarters, "that the time for rugged individualism succeeding, despite general economic trends, has passed."
 Karfunkle explained that "with few exceptions, those executives who do not synchronize their individual businesses to long-range factors will inevitably suffer losses and financial set-backs. The time to plan is not just when your salesmen report bad reports but, as part of everyday business." Karfunkle is president of Econoviews International, Inc., Kennett Square, Pa.
 Describing the "Now or Never Nineties" as the "Decade of Disappointment," Karfunkle said, "that even the smallest local business can be impacted by a general fall-off of consumer demand."
 Karfunkle cited the need to boost U.S. savings and investment and the decline of consumption by the youth and the elderly because of constrained income as two serious problems. Extensive layoffs have closed the door to employment for the young while continuing interest rate reductions on CDs and other investments has considerably diminished the disposable income of all retirees." He stressed that only limited vigor is expected in the early stages of the business recovery.
 At the Sterling National Bank Seminar he summed up his economic outlook by stating:
 1. The U.S. economy must become much more competitive internationally and in global marketing;
 2. More jobs must be created with appropriate incentives in federal, state and municipal tax structures;
 3. Business planning must factor in longer term economic conditions and be replaced by adjustments geared to broader economic trends;
 4. U.S. industry can only prevail by increasing capital spending, allocating more money for research and development and improving education and jobs.
 The seminar was conducted under the auspices of Theodore H. Silbert, chairman, and John C. Millman, president, of Sterling National Bank & Trust Company of New York. Silbert has long been a proponent of greater accuracy and the use of professional, timely economic and financial predictions for future business planning. Karfunkle is the winner of the 11th Annual Economic Forecasting Award given to the economist for the most accurate economic forecast and was chosen from among the over 50 prominent, professional economists who participate in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators panel, edited by Robert J. Eggert. Sterling Bank sponsors the award as a public service.
 -0- 3/19/92
 /CONTACT: Theodore H. Silbert, chairman; or Louis J. Cappelli, senior executive VP, of Sterling National Bank, 212-826-8000/
 (STL) CO: Sterling National Bank & Trust Company ST: New York IN: FIN SU: ECO


AH-KD -- NY090 -- 9856 03/19/92 16:56 EST
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Date:Mar 19, 1992
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