Zimbabwe must look ahead.

Zimbabwe observed its 25th independence anniversary last month but celebrations--apart from the state organised public rallies--were muted. The guest list was also much shorter than is normal on such occasions. Only those who have 'proved their loyalty' to the Mugabe regime, in word or deed, were invited.

This is a far cry from a similar occasion 15 years ago when Zimbabwe celebrated its 10th independence anniversary. Almost everybody who was anybody in the whole world was in Harare and the public spirit was one of the most joyous I have ever seen in Africa.

Although Zimbabwe had been one of the last African countries to gain independence, it had already established itself, 10 years later, as sub-Saharan Africa's strongest economy (excluding South Africa).

Its social indicators, including education and health were the best on the continent. Within two years of gaining independence, Zimbabwe's food surplus was so large that it was actively seeking recipients to donate food aid to. There was a solid industrial and manufacturing foundation and it was rapidly becoming the most popular tourist destination in the continent. At that time, it seemed inevitable that Zimbabwe would go on to become the first truly modern, prosperous African state.

All this had been achieved under the Zanu PF party and the presidency of Robert Mugabe--the same Robert Mugabe who has now become such a vilified figure in the West. An African proverb says: "Success has a thousand fathers; failure is an orphan."

There is no doubt that the Zimbabwe of today bears little resemblance to the same country of a decade and a half ago. But the total economic collapse so eagerly prophesied by several economists over the past four years has not happened. The country is ticking over and the majority has continued to show its faith in the ruling party by voting it in again during the recent elections. Claims of vote rigging and intimidation have not been sufficiently substantiated.

Yet, despite the concerted communications campaign by the Zimbabwe authorities, few are convinced that things are back to normal in that country. On the flip side, one should also not pay much attention to the hostile propaganda mounted by those that Mugabe has termed his enemies: Britain and the US who have painted the country in the darkest colours imaginable.

The truth, as in all such matters, lies somewhere in between. The task for all those who have Zimbabwe and Africa's wellbeing truly at heart is to turn a deaf ear to the thunder of the propaganda war and seek to hear the faint voice of the truth.

The future is at stake

What is at stake is not how many points Mugabe scores against the British and the US and vice versa but the future of the country's young generation.

They have nowhere else to go. Those who thought they could follow their white country folk into voluntary exile in Britain and Australia had rude shocks waiting for them at immigration entry points.

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The West is very sympathetic to the plight of 'Mugabe's black victims' as long as they stay put in their own country and do not add to the already long queues of asylum seekers wishing to gain entry into European countries. While white Zimbabweans, most with dual nationalities, can slip in and out of the UK at will, black Zimbabweans can expect a frosty reception should they try to gain entry.

At this point, we should not be too preoccupied about what caused the Zimbabwean economy to begin its slide. Those who claim that the economy began to disintegrate the day a bunch of former freedom-fighters besieged a white farm are being childishly simplistic.

While the takeover of white-owned farms did cause disruption to agricultural production, cash-crop output came out virtually unscathed. Food output declined but this had more to do with the prevailing drought in the region than to farming practices.

There is also a strong argument that if indeed Zimbabwe's economy collapsed solely as a result of whites being forced off the land, then Mugabe's charge that the whites were holding the nation to ransom with their overwhelming control of the main factors of production must, inter alia, be well founded.

No single group in any country should be in a position of such productive power that their lack of participation in the process induces a collapse of the entire economy.

We at African Business have never bought this explanation for the decline in Zimbabwe's economic fortunes. Instead we have published several well thought-out and researched articles that point to a whole series of factors, some domestic, others international that precipitated the downturn.

Unfortunately, reason, logic and analysis have been drummed out by the deafening, high-octane trading of insults by both the West--particularly Britain--and Zimbabwe. This slugging match has been very entertaining to outside bystanders, many of whom have added their own fuel to the fire, but it had done little for the ordinary citizen.

We can argue till the end of time about the rights and wrongs of the land reform process but that will lead us nowhere. Whatever could have happened, did.

What is crucial now is to clear the fog of rhetoric that is clouding the future of Zimbabwe. The economy is in dire straits but the country's potential is still excellent. What we now require of Zimbabwe's leadership is less fire and brimstone speeches and more reasoned logic and practical policies to begin the process of rebuilding this country's once thriving economy.