Zimbabwe: come rain or shine, elections will be in March.

One month to Zimbabwe's March elections, Morgan Tsvangirai's faction of the divided MDC opposition appears to be backing out of the deals reached at the inter-party talks mediated by South Africa, and even threatening to boycott the elections if certain conditions are not met. Mabasa Sasa reports from Harare.

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The ruling Zanu PF party and the two MDC opposition camps are increasingly bickering over who is to blame over the stymied progress of inter-party talks. A few months ago, the nation was expectant that an internal political settlement that would effectively end the eight-year war of attrition was as good as reached, but events over the past two months point towards a descent back to the extreme polarisation that has characterised the political landscape since 1999.

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From agreeing to co-sponsor a constitutional amendment that paved the way for the harmonisation of presidential, legislative and civic elections in March 2008, Zanu PF and the two MDC formations have of late been involved in some serious mudslinging that has virtually eroded the goodwill, painstakingly built over the past year.

At its summit in Tanzania last March, the SADC mandated the South African president, Thabo Mbeki, to facilitate dialogue between President Robert Mugabe's Zanu PF and the two MDC factions led by Morgan Tsvangirai and Prof Arthur Mutambara, after a spate of running battles between opposition supporters and police officers.

But since the co-sponsorship of a constitutional amendment, there has been little to write home about regarding the talks. Conflicting statements have been emanating from the Tsvangirai group pertaining to their commitment to dialogue.

Since late last year, Tsvangirai has been calling for a postponement of the March 2008 harmonised elections--even though his secretary-general Tendai Biti appended his signature to the agreement for polls to be held in March. But Tsvangirai's inner circle has been threatening to boycott the elections if certain conditions are not met.

These include the re-registration of all voters, a re-constitution of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, re-delimination of constituency boundaries and, more importantly, the introduction of a brand new Constitution.

Nelson Chamisa, the Tsvangirai faction spokesperson, has told New African that while they were "prepared for elections anytime", they were not happy with the electoral environment. Interestingly though, the Mutambara faction of the MDC appears satisfied with the manner in which things have progressed and their spokesperson, Gabriel Chaibva, is in fact adamant that elections should be held in March as constitutionally mandated and as agreed in the talks.

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And this dissonance in policy co-ordination also puts a dent in the hopes that the two factions will reunite any time soon.

Says Chaibva: "Way back in February 2007, we said that we want elections held in March [2008] as provided for by the constitution. Our position remains the same and we are saying 'let's get on with this'.

"We want the elections held on time and Zimbabwe cannot stand another disputed poll. The legislative environment has been dealt with and of course we still have concerns with some other electoral issues. But if we look at them and believe that there has been positive progress, then by all means we should go ahead with the elections."

In line with this thinking, the two MDC formations have said they will hold a total of over 300 rallies countrywide over the next month, a strategy which analysts say points to the opposition's willingness to participate in the elections. Unconfirmed reports also say that hundreds of vehicles have been bought for the opposition by its foreign allies to be used for campaign purposes.

However, in mid-January, the opposition said it was going to organise a series of demonstrations aimed at getting the elections postponed and a new constitution put in place immediately. All this seems to indicate that, though the Tsvangirai faction does not want an election yet, it is trying to gear up for what appears to be the only outcome after all--a March election.

On their part, government sources close to the inter-party negotiations say Tsvangirai wants the elections postponed because he is simply not prepared. Apparently, all the reforms that have to date been instituted by the government regarding elections have been endorsed by Tsvangirai and he is now trying to shift the goalposts. The sources said Tsvangirai and Mutambara had agreed with Zanu PF on a draft constitution which will be subject to scrutiny by the general public after the March elections.

"What people don't know is that Zanu PF and the MDC were talking about a draft constitution before the formal talks even started. When the talks began, that document was refined and it was agreed within the aegis of the talks that the draft constitution would only be presented to the public after the elections," the sources said.

"This is because we all agreed that there was no way in which it could be implemented with such a tight deadline. In addition to this, there is need for a referendum or some sort of wide consultative process that is all-inclusive, but Tsvangirai wants this constitution imposed on the people without their input.

"On the issue of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, the world should now be made aware that the MDC has its own nominees sitting on that body. The political parties agreed to appoint their own nominees to the Commission when it was formed, and the MDC did so. They should not continue to malign ZEC as if it is a Zanu PF creation when in fact we formed it together and agreed during the talks that it should administer the March elections without any changes to its composition."

According to the sources: "The only reason why the MDC is saying elections should be postponed is not because they want a new constitution, but because they want more time to get their house in order. If the government were to postpone elections to June, September or even December 2008, it would still be impossible to put in place a new constitution and all the institutional structures that come with it."

It is now believed in government circles that Tsvangirai wants a poll postponement--and an actual collapse of the talks. At the recent Commonwealth meeting in Kampala, [the British Prime Minister Gordon] Brown was at pains to get Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, Zambia's Vice-President Rupiya Banda and President Mbeki to impress on President Mugabe to postpone the elections while a new constitution was put in place.

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"Evidently, the MDC is merely following instructions from outside. Ironically though, they are getting this instruction from Brown whose country does not have a constitution and who will hold elections when he feels like. Brown knows that it is the prerogative of the government of the day to set election dates and yet he is trying to get the opposition to set Zimbabwe's election dates. It is all rank hypocrisy."

As regards Tsvangirai's call for diasporans to vote, the sources again said Tsvangirai was being hypocritical and acting in bad faith because during the talks the parties agreed that non-residents, bar those on national duty abroad, would not vote. The matter was resolved simply. In a democratic poll, there must be equal access to voters. Zanu PF does not have that access because Tsvangirai's handlers in the West have barred senior ruling party members from visiting those countries and yet Tsvangirai is always there campaigning for his faction."

The sources said Zanu PF had actually fast-tracked some issues on the talks agenda "as a means of salving the consciences and easing the worries of the MDC". These issues include amendments to security and media laws. "We can tell you that the issue of AIPPA and BSA was catered for in the Draft Constitution but the MDC felt that these were urgent matters that had to be dealt with under the first track of the dialogue process. Zanu PF agreed to deal with these matters posthaste.

"But on the other hand, the MDC is not carrying out its side of the bargain. Pirate radio stations are still broadcasting their hate messages into Zimbabwe, and they have not asked their Western backers to lift the debilitating economic sanctions on the country. But Zanu PF has told the MDC that they recognise that these are processes rather than events, and hence no one should jump the gun.

While the MDC has repeatedly violated an agreement with President Mbeki to refrain from making public statements concerning confidential matters discussed in the talks, Zanu PF has been silent, creating the impression that the ruling party is indeed guilty of all the things the opposition accuses it of.

One of the Zanu PF negotiators, Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, has told New African that Zanu PF remained committed to the dialogue. "We are aware that there have been some outside pressures to undermine the process but I am glad to say that so far both sides have withstood this. Only time will tell if some of us will become weak-kneed and succumb to the pressure."

President Mugabe's spokesperson, George Charamba, has also said it was hypocritical for anyone to call for the postponement of the elections.

"You should remember," urges Charamba, "that following the 2006 Zanu PF annual people's conference in Goromonzi, Tsvangirai demanded that elections be held immediately. Interestingly, when the government agreed with the MDC and said elections should be held as scheduled in March 2008, Tsvangirai suddenly said this date was too soon and the polls should be pushed further forward.

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"First, they said the elections were too far away and now they are too near for comfort. They are just not prepared and they are trying to buy time. And you can see where this agenda is coming from when you find the House of Lords in the UK debating our poll scheduling as if Brown has held his own elections."

The economy

While things are not too bad on the political front, they are not too rosy economically. For the past two months, the country has been in the grip of a serious cash crunch that has seen people sleeping in queues in the hope of accessing money from banks the next day.

One of the solutions suggested is the introduction of a new currency, but late last year, the Central Bank governor, Dr Gideon Gono, put paid to such speculation by introducing a new set of higher denomination bearer cheques. But this has failed to offset the crisis. According to the Central Bank, money is in short supply because "cash barons" are holding onto large sums of Z$200,000 bearer cheques for illegal and speculative activities. Economists on the other hand have argued that money is in short supply simply because inflation continues to go up and people consequently need more money for day-to-day use.