Yield curve and predicted GDP growth, February 2012.

Overview of the Latest Yield Curve Figures

Over the past month, the yield curve has flattened somewhat, as short rates moved up while longer rates barely budged. The three-month Treasury bill rose to 0.11 percent (for the week ending February 17), up from January's 0.04 percent and December's 0.01 percent. The ten-year rate stayed below two percent, but not by much, coming in at 1.97 percent, just up from January's 1.96 percent and December's 1.94 percent. The twist dropped the slope a bit, to 186 basis points, down six points from January s 192 bp and also below December s 193bp.

The lower slope was not enough to have an appreciable change in projected future growth, however. Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 0.7 percent rate over the next year, equal to the past two months. The strong influence of the recent recession is leading towards relatively low growth rates. Although the time horizons do not match exactly, the forecast comes in on the more pessimistic side of other predictions but like them, it does show moderate growth for the year.

Likewise, there was little change in the probability of recession. Using the yield curve to predict whether or not the economy will be in recession in the future, we estimate that the expected chance of the economy being in a recession next February at 6.9 percent, a bit above January s at 6.4 percent, and Decembers at 6.5 percent. So although our approach is somewhat pessimistic as regards the level of growth over the next year, it is quite optimistic about the recovery continuing.

The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Growth

The slope of the yield curve--the difference between the yields on short-and long-term maturity bonds--has achieved some notoriety as a simple forecaster of economic growth. The rule of thumb is that an inverted yield curve (short rates above long rates) indicates a recession in about a year, and yield curve inversions have preceded each of the last seven recessions (as defined by the NBER). One of the recessions predicted by the yield curve was the most recent one. The yield curve inverted in August 2006, a bit more than a year before the current recession started in December 2007. There have been two notable false positives: an inversion in late 1966 and a very flat curve in late 1998.

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More generally, a flat curve indicates weak growth, and conversely, a steep curve indicates strong growth. One measure of slope, the spread between ten-year Treasury bonds and three-month Treasury bills, bears out this relation, particularly when real GDP growth is lagged a year to line up growth with the spread that predicts it.

Predicting GDP Growth

We use past values of the yield spread and GDP growth to project what real GDP will be in the future. We typically calculate and post the prediction for real GDP growth one year forward.

Predicting the Probability of Recession

While we can use the yield curve to predict whether future GDP growth will be above or below average, it does not do so well in predicting an actual number, especially in the case of recessions. Alternatively, we can employ features of the yield curve to predict whether or not the economy will be in a recession at a given point in the future. Typically, we calculate and post the probability of recession one year forward.

Of course, it might not be advisable to take these numbers quite so literally, for two reasons. First, this probability is itself subject to error, as is the case with all statistical estimates. Second, other researchers have postulated that the underlying determinants of the yield spread today are materially different from the determinants that generated yield spreads during prior decades. Differences could arise from changes in international capital flows and inflation expectations, for example. The bottom line is that yield curves contain important information for business cycle analysis, but, like other indicators, should be interpreted with caution. For more detail on these and other issues related to using the yield curve to predict recessions, see the Commentary "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recession?" Our friends at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York also maintain a website with much useful information on the topic, including their own estimate of recession probabilities.

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Highlights

              February  January  December

3-month           0.11     0.04      0.01
Treasury
bill rate
(percent)
10-year           1.97     1.96      1.94
Treasury
bond rate
(percent)
Yield curve        186      192       193
slope (basis
points)
Prediction         0.7      0.7       0.7
for GDP
growth
(percent)
Probability        6.9      6.4       6.5
of recession
in 1 year
(percent)

Covering January 21, 2012-February 24, 2012