YEMEN - Liberalisation In The Middle East - Part 21.

After spending the first half of the 1990s in serious domestic turmoil, involving re-unification of the northern and southern sectors in 1990 and a civil war in 1994, Yemen is now gradually moving towards stability and prosperity. To ensure that this trend is not threatened from outside or inside, President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been careful to take moderate and conciliatory positions in both domestic and foreign policy. As such, Yemen has been spared destabilising internal dissent in recent years while on the external front Sanaa has improved relations dramatically with the US and Saudi Arabia, the two countries which are most important from the Yemeni geo-political perspective.

Domestically, President Saleh has managed to consolidate his political position, and the ruling General People's Congress (GPC) leadership looks likely to remain in power for the foreseeable future. He has managed to do this through a relatively fair democratic process, which has been praised by the US.

However, there are signals that Saleh, too, may eventually move towards the "republican dynasty" type of government which may become common in the Arab World - with Bashar Al Assad having taken over in Syria and the sons of Libyan leader Col. Qadhafi, Egyptian President Mubarak, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein all regarded as potential successors to their fathers (see following pages and News Service No. 2).

Following the election victory of Saleh in September 1999, Yemen now appears set on a path of reform, positive diplomacy and overall stability. Reform and positive diplomacy started well before the presidential election. Indeed, in recent years, the country has been trying to get its economy in line with the prevailing trend of globalisation through cautious liberalisation, guided by the IMF and World Bank, despite objections from the Islamic Al Islah movement which is the most important opposition grouping in the country. Simultaneously, it has embarked on a political course that seeks to mix democracy and authoritarian rule in a way that suits the local temperament. In both cases it has met with some success.

Thus, most observers agree that Yemen is moving into a more stable era, economically and politically. Regional and domestic developments are likely to move in favour of Yemen provided Sanaa sticks to pragmatic options that are based on its own interests, rather than ideological motivations - i.e. in order to avoid the sort of mistake it made in August 1990, i.e. by appearing to support Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait.

Saleh has drawn the appropriate lessons from the experience of the Gulf crisis and its aftermath. He has moved rapidly in recent years to improve relations with the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states as well as with the US. In early April 2000, while on a visit to the US, President Clinton praised Saleh for democratic advances in Yemen and promised to help boost American investment in the country. He particularly commended Yemen for its commitment to ensuring full rights for women, within its constitution. On June 12, during a visit by Saleh to Saudi Arabia, the two countries signed an agreement to settle their long-running border dispute, which had brought them to the brink of war on several occasions. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Yemen have improved as a result (see News Service of this week).

Yemen is thus gradually becoming an entrenched member of the group of US allies in the Middle East. Saleh has judged that this approach is the best way to guarantee both his leadership as well as the economic prospects of Yemen. Indeed, there have been repeated rumours that the US is to have special military access arrangements with Yemen, bringing the country under the umbrella of Pax Americana. Sanaa has denied these reports.