Y2K SURVIVAL TACTICS.

Assuming civilization survives past January 1, 2000 (still an open question, according to Y2K extremists), it's likely that we'll still face a plague of nuisance problems--electronic devices that lock up, corrupted data, occasional phone or power outages, panicky customers, and the inevitable blizzard of liability lawsuits. None of this is truly apocalyptic, but the world is now so interconnected that the ripple effects of these Y2K glitches are bound to disrupt almost everyone's daily life.

For obvious reasons, software developers tend to see the Y2K problem in terms of their own products. But what about general business risks? We recently asked our subscribers about the impact of Y2K problems on their daily operations, sales channels, and relationships with customers and partners. Here are some of the areas of vulnerability they identified for us:

Legal overkill: "The biggest annoyance for us has been the 'C.Y.A.' letters we're getting from every IS department this side of Mars," says Eric Robichaud of Rhode Island Soft Systems, a developer of screen savers. "I can't tell you how many letters I've gotten that say, 'Please verify that your Hey Macaroni Screen Saver is Year 2000 compliant.' It's a huge hassle, a huge waste of time and money, and is just ridiculous with some of the lengthy documents they want us to fill out. They're not putting any thought behind what they're doing--they're just taking inventory of any software on their systems and contacting every vendor."

Eric Robichaud, president, Rhode Island Soft Systems, Box 748, Woonsocket, R.I. 02895; 401/767-3106. E-mail: [e-mail].

The retail channel: Tom Friedman, an expert on retail automation, points out that the retail industry relies heavily on date-sensitive internal systems--"order management, payroll, accounts payable, labor scheduling, time clocks, point-of-sale terminals, credit card devices, and other firmware devices." Although retailers are currently trying to update all of these systems, Friedman predicts that at least some chains and distributors will probably experience "major" Y2K disruptions.

Thomas Friedman, publisher, Retail Systems Alert, 77 Oak St., Newton Upper Falls, Mass. 02164; 617/527-4626. E-mail: tfriedman@retail systems.com.

Purchase order postponement: There's a distinct chance, says Art Marks of New Enterprise Associates, that software vendors could suffer a devastating "Y2K nuclear winter" in the next year. "That's what happens to software sales when every customer is suddenly consumed by either real or anticipated worries and postpones new software initiatives." Marks adds that he personally believes the Y2K impact on sales will be minimal, "but it's pretty tough to predict."

Art Marks, general partner, New Enterprise Associates, 11911 Freedom Dr., Reston, Va. 20190; 410/244-0115. E-mail: [e-mail].

Overseas partners: "The larger the company, the more likely its suppliers and partners will be located outside the U.S., which is where I expect the most awful troubles to develop," warns Fortune Magazine's David Kirkpatrick. "For instance, Brazil relies very heavily on old mainframe technology, and a Brazil-savvy Y2K expert I know says there is little evidence that the Brazilians, who tend to adopt a rather laissez-faire attitude about such matters, have prepared much."

David Kirkpatrick, Board of Editors, Fortune Magazine, Time-Life Bldg., New York, N.Y. 10020; 212/522-2559. E-mail: [e-mail].

Local community disruption: Consultant Sam Albert points out that software companies need to think about--and help resolve--potential Y2K problems outside the office. "If employees can't come to work, or if the community is severely disturbed, the organization won't operate normally even with fully compliant computer systems," he says. "A few careful words can spread a factual, non-alarmist message and help find people willing to work on local Y2K problems."

Sam Albert, Sam Albert Associates, 27 Kingwood Rd., Scarsdale, N.Y. 10583; 914/723-8296. E-mail: [e-mail].

Voice mail: Many phone systems date-stamp the messages they save, and often these systems aren't Y2K compliant. But even testing a phone system can be risky: Tim Reynolds of Tribute Inc. says a "young sprout" in his office "decided the best way to test the voice mail system was to change the PC system date and then reboot the machine." Result: The voice mail system worked perfectly--including a feature that erased all messages that the system thought had been stored for more than 14 days.

Tim Reynolds, president, Tribute Inc., 1696 Georgetown Rd., Hudson, Ohio 44236; 330/656-3006. E-mail: [e-mail].

Newly-purchased PCs: "Don't assume that because you have a new computer, it's ready for Y2K," says Beth Ubele of Navision Software. "We were really surprised when we found that new computers we bought during the last months of 1998 weren't Y2K compliant because of a time counter on the BIOS chip. Apparently there were so many of these chips produced that the manufacturers just continued to use them, even though they were aware of the problem."

Beth Ubele, manager of corporate communications, Navision Software US, 500 Pinnacle Court, Norcross, Ga. 30071; 800/552-8478. E-mail: [e-mail].

Off-site PCs and systems: With the proliferation of "virtual companies," many employees now work at home or in other remote locations. "Make sure you check all your telecommuters' home machines," warns Web Informant publisher David Strom. "They may be older machines that don't show up on the corporate PC inventories rolls."

David Strom, publisher, Web Informant, 938 Port Washington Blvd., Port Washington, N.Y. 11050; 516/944-3407. E-mail: [e-mail].

Software maintenance contracts: Bob Schnibbe of the Rights Exchange points out that support contracts are often tied to specific calendar years--so coverage may lapse just in time for a major meltdown. "It would be nice to know that your maintenance agreements with critical and essential vendors are in effect for at least 60-90 days," he advises.

Bob Schnibbe, senior vice president of operations, Rights Exchange, 325 Delaware Ave., Buffalo, N.Y. 14202; 716/845-7800.

Desktop application files: Large mission-critical systems are easy to identify, but Jacqueline Dundon of WRQ points out that it's much tougher to find and fix all the spreadsheets and database files that individuals use day-to-day for critical calculations. She's currently running a pilot project, tracking five people in her company's finance department to spot vulnerable files. But Dundon's preference is to have WRQ employees simply start from scratch with upgraded software and new files. "Make a clean break and move on," she says. "Otherwise the file issue would be too epic for us."

Jacqueline Dundon, help desk manager, WRQ, 1500 Dexter Ave., Seattle, Wash. 98109; 206/217-7100.

Lower-priority systems: Not surprisingly, mission-critical applications get plenty of Y2K attention--but Control Data System's Lyle Borton points out that the failure of non-critical systems can also cause a good deal of mischief. For example, Borton says his company's tech support validation database last year began deleting new contracts with post-2000 expiration dates. Similar problems are likely to crop up in older mail-enabled applications, which often handle mundane supply-chain tasks. "When someone can't order material and can't invoice, who is liable?"

Lyle Borton, general manager, Control Data Systems, 4201 Lexington Ave., Arden Hills, Minn. 55126; 612/415-4816. E-mail: [e-mail].

Office security systems: "The card reader to get in the front door of our office building is not Y2K compliant," says Tom Toperczer of Stac Software. "We have lots of jokes around here along the lines of 'Will we get locked in or locked out?'"

Tom Toperczer, director of marketing, Stac Software, 12636 High Bluff Dr., San Diego, Calif. 92130; 619/794-4317. E-mail: [e-mail].

Tech support spikes: "People are likely to assume that any electronic glitches (even ones that were happening to them before the year 2000, such as network errors, memory errors, corrupted file errors, etc.) are Y2K related," predicts consultant Sam Albert. The result could be a massive surge in tech support activity "to levels that many companies may not be able to handle without major delays." (The best solution, Albert adds, is to make sure Y2K solutions and patches are conspicuously available on the Web.)

Sam Albert, Sam Albert Associates, 27 Kingwood Rd., Scarsdale, N.Y. 10583; 914/723-8296. E-mail: [e-mail].

Downloadable patches: Like most software developers, says Richard Reiter of FTP Software, his company's Y2K testers "went back, code scanned, tested and certified previous products--but not our publicly posted patches!" Since checking and re-testing libraries of patches is a huge job, FTP plans to release a new version of its software that incorporates all earlier fixes "and then we'll decommission the older patches."

Richard Reiter, director of technical support, FTP Software, Two High St., N. Andover, Mass. 01845; 978/684-6706. E-mail: [e-mail].

Customer hardware: Industry analyst Amy Wohl points out that releasing new Y2K-tested software may not protect customers from problems that are the result of their own obsolete equipment. "How do you get customers to check the hardware they're running your software on?" she asks. "Some hardware can be upgraded, some can't be."

Amy Wohl, president, Wohl Associates, 915 Montgomery Ave., Narberth, Penn. 19072; 610/667-4842. E-mail: [e-mail].

Finger-pointing: It's going to be tough for customers to figure out exactly whose software is responsible for Y2K failures, says Judith Hurwitz of the Hurwitz Group, and many vendors will probably pass the buck rather than take responsibility for solving the problem. "If customers walk away in disgust at this finger-pointing, it will cost all software companies their credibility."

Judith Hurwitz, president, Hurwitz Group, 111 Speen St., Framingham, Mass. 01701; 508/872-3344. E-mail: [e-mail].

E-mail liability claims: Alison Harris of Service News points out that software companies need to be especially careful when they answer Y2K support questions by e-mail. "There's a written reply to a problem and a 'paper trail' right back to an agent or tech support rep," she says. "This is fine if the answer is right--but it creates a liability issue when the answer is wrong."

Alison Harris, publisher, Service News, 106 Lafayette St., Yarmouth, Me. 04096; 207/846-0600. E-mail: [e-mail].

Market share shifts: The good news is that smart software companies may be able to "profit from the misfortune of others," says Bob Johnson of the Information Technology Services Marketing Association (ITSMA). Since some vendors are bound to take a legalistic, unhelpful approach to Y2K problems, he says, their rivals will have a highly visible chance to be more customer-centric. "The result could be some of the biggest market share swings over the shortest period of time in IT history."

Bob Johnson, vice president, ITMSA, One Militia Dr., Lexington, Mass. 02173; 781/862-8500. E-mail: [e-mail].