Y2K Guru Says Not to Worry.

If you're a bit anxious about how much havoc the millennium bug will wreak, take heart: Y2K guru Peter deJager, who once predicted a doomsday scenario, told ASSOCIATION MANAGEMENT he's "much more optimistic that we can come through this OK" because organizations and businesses worldwide have been working diligently. In fact, deJager's so confident, he'll be on United Airlines's Flight 928 on his way to London when New Year's Day 2000 dawns.

Widely credited with focusing worldwide attention on Y2K, deJager, whose Web site is www.year2000.com, says forecasting gloom and doom was the only option several years ago to alert people to the looming crisis. He says his new role is "gloomslayer," which he depicts in a new book of cartoons and pithy sayings, The Bug Stops Here!!! (1999, Petrus and Associates, Inc.).

The author does not mean to suggest glitches won't happen, because they undoubtedly will; just don't panic or become too complacent. (See also "Are You Y2K OK?" page 67.)

If an executive has been diligent about working to fix Y2K-related problems but is still concerned he or she might have missed something, "that's a rational and appropriate concern because the reality is you will have overlooked something," says deJager.

Reasonable concern is healthy because it fosters just-in-case planning. "Putting contingency plans in place is not a bad idea," says deJager.

Some post-Y2K predictions from deJager:

* Chief executive officers will need to have a minimum level of technological knowledge. "You don't need to know all the details," says deJager, "but you do need to know if you're being sold a bill of goods if someone tells you there is a problem."

* There will be a greater push toward sharing of information for mutual benefit in the wake of successful collaborative efforts on Y2K solutions.

* A backlash against technology will generate increased demand for certification of information technology professionals, giving associations an opportunity to be the leaders in setting such standards.

* The year 2100 will be Y2K all over again. "We didn't fix the year 2000 problem," says deJager. "We used the No. 1 method of solving the problem: We fudged it."

Instead of pioneering a permanent solution, organizations resorted to a strategy known as "windowing" that continues to designate years using two digits, the practice that created Y2K in the first place. According to deJager, organizations have selected a pivot date, such as 50. Numbers greater than or equal to 50 indicate a year in the 1900s; numbers less than 50 indicate a year in the 2000s.

"We don't learn," says deJager. "That's human nature."