Xcel Associates Announces Investment Opinion on INSCI Corp.HAZLET, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 15, 1999-- The Following is a Research Report Issued by Xcel Associates on INSCI Corp.: -0-
Initial Report June 15, 1999
STRONG BUY RECOMMENDATION William N. Walling, Jr., CFA
INSCI CORP
(Nasdaq-INSI-$4 3/4)
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KEY STOCK DATA
Price (6/15/99): $4 3/4
52-week High/Low: $ 5 - $ 9/16
Common Shares Outstanding: 7.54 million
Common Shares Float: 5 million (approx.)
Market Capitalization: $35.8 million
Daily Trading Volume: 115,000 shares
Long-term Debt (12/31/98): Nil
Shareholders' Equity (12/31/98): $4.8 million
Long-term Debt/Equity (12/31/98): Nil
Dividend: Nil
Book Value (12/31/98)/Share: $0.64
Revenue (FY1998)/Share: $1.30
Revenue (FY1999E)/Share: $1.62
Period Rev. Net Inc. EPS
------ ---- ------- ----
(3/31 FY) (Mil.) (Mil.)
3/31/96A $7.9 $(1.5) $(0.53)
3/31/97A 11.4 (0.9) (0.62)
3/31/98A 9.8 (2.5) (0.73)
3/31/99E 12.2 (0.8) (0.19)
3/31/00E 18.0 1.6 0.20
3/31/01E 25.0 2.6 0.35
Price/Earnings (FY2000E): 23.8x
Price/Earnings (FY2001E): 13.6x
Dividend Yield: Nil
Price/Book Value (12/31/98): 7.4x
Market Cap./Revenue (FY1999E): 2.9x
(FY1999E)
Market Cap./Revenue (FY2000E): 2.0x
(FY2000E)
A - Actual E - Estimate (by XCEL Associates)
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION INSCI Corp ("INSI INSI Initial Nuclear Safety Inspection " or the "Company") is a small--though already leading--provider of an integrated suite of software products. These focus on electronic document archiving and retrieval and related management applications for large-volume, high-value documents at the user enterprise level. We strongly recommend purchase of INSI common shares for their outstanding capital appreciation potential, both near term and long term. Our one-year Target Price for INSI is $10 per share -- more than a double from $4 3/4 currently. INSI enjoys technological leadership in its niche, including the ability to store and retrieve high volumes of printed documents, a capability presently shared only with IBM (International Business Machines Corporation, Armonk, NY, www.ibm.com) The world's largest computer company. IBM's product lines include the S/390 mainframes (zSeries), AS/400 midrange business systems (iSeries), RS/6000 workstations and servers (pSeries), Intel-based servers (xSeries) (IBM-$115 1/2). Its flagship product A primary product of a company, which is typically why the company was founded and/or what made it well known. For example, MS-DOS, Windows and the Microsoft Office suite have been flagship products of Microsoft. CorelDRAW is a flagship product of Corel Corporation. , COINSERV, is based on open client-server architecture client-server architecture Architecture of a computer network in which many clients (remote processors) request and receive service from a centralized server (host computer). that is scaleable with other leading platforms, most notably Windows NT (Windows New Technology) A 32-bit operating system from Microsoft for Intel x86 CPUs. NT is the core technology in Windows 2000 and Windows XP (see Windows). Available in separate client and server versions, it includes built-in networking and preemptive multitasking. . In fact, its COINSERV for Windows NT was selected as "Product of the Year" in its category by Imaging and Document Solutions Magazine in its January 1999 issue. More important, INSI enjoys strategic marketing relationships with several important corporate partners. These include: Unisys (UIS-$37 7/16), Xerox (XRX-$58 3/16), and Moore (MCL-$8 5/8)-- which together account for over one-third of INSI'S revenues. Further, in April 1999, XEROX selected INSI to be part of its integrated financial services The examples and perspective in this article or section may not represent a worldwide view of the subject. Please [ improve this article] or discuss the issue on the talk page. solution suite for e-commerce-Internet presentment and payment. The Company has over 500 clients, including other blue ribbon blue ribbon denotes highest honor. [Western Folklore: Brewer Dictionary, 127] See : Prize users in many industries, but primarily in financial services and telecommunications. It appears to us that INSI's core products have reached an important maturation point in both their development and market acceptance: sales in the first three quarters of FY3/31/99 soared 43% and a profit was earned in the last quarter. We expect strong revenue momentum to be sustained over the next few years, which seems likely to move earnings solidly into the black in FY2000/FY2001. Besides augmenting an already respectable balance sheet, the advent of earnings would herald a new era--after previous years of substantial losses during product development and a critical transition to Windows NT. Nevertheless, our primary investment thesis about INSI is its technological prowess and the fundamental implications thereof, not the $.20/$.35 of EPS (Encapsulated PostScript) A PostScript file format used to transfer a graphic image between applications and platforms. EPS files contain PostScript code as well as an optional preview image in TIFF, WMF, PICT or EPSI, the latter being an ASCII-only format. we forecast for FY2000/2001. XCEL's Strong Buy Recommendation of INSI is principally based on three investment considerations: 1. INSI, though small, has a leading technology position in a product market apparently destined des·tine tr.v. des·tined, des·tin·ing, des·tines 1. To determine beforehand; preordain: a foolish scheme destined to fail; a film destined to become a classic. 2. to increase many-fold over the next decade. We attribute this to a combination of management's vision, persistence, and execution at the micro level in concert with the exploding presence of the Web, the Internet, and on line. Paper and microfiche Pronounced "micro-feesh." A 4x6" sheet of film that holds several hundred miniaturized document pages. See micrographics. were already going to digital storage, which is dramatically cheaper and much faster and more convenient; but, the Web is accelerating this. Meanwhile, both on line and the Web are new driving forces in retail sales. INSCI's COINSERV is the necessary "digital back office" tie-in to the Internet, which supports E-commerce. Thus, INSI is an investment play on converging industry developments of mammoth proportions. 2. INSI has distinct takeover investment appeal, in our opinion, presumably pre·sum·a·ble adj. That can be presumed or taken for granted; reasonable as a supposition: presumable causes of the disaster. at a substantially higher price. INSI's combination of technology leadership and early-to-market presence is the ingredient of probable success as an independent company. But, these same virtues offer appeal to a larger acquirer, who could bring deeper pockets and greater distribution strengths to promote INSI's exciting technology. As a generalization, the merger and acquisition boom of the 1990s has emphasized such strategic synergies (unlike the LBOs of the 1980s). More specifically, INSI has already been cited in the computer industry press for its vital technology and, therefore, takeover attraction. Further, INSI already has several strategic marketing partnerships, including those with Unisys, Xerox, and Moore. And, other companies in the printing equipment, document management, and outsource printing fields could see a strategic fit with INSCI. So, clearly the conditions are present which often trigger a takeover attempt Noun 1. takeover attempt - an attempt to take control of a corporation bear hug - a takeover bid so attractive that the directors of the target company must approve it or risk shareholder protest . But, none of this necessarily foretells such an outcome and not all romances make it to the altar. Nonetheless, we believe that a takeover theme has merit and that it is not much reflected in the $4 3/4 price. However, we regard it as a complementary investment thesis that is secondary to that of INSCI's undervalued Undervalued A stock or other security that is trading below its true value. Notes: The difficulty is knowing what the "true" value actually is. Analysts will usually recommend an undervalued stock with a strong buy rating. technological position. 3. We believe INSI has the necessary attributes to gain broader investor recognition and a higher market valuation. In our opinion, INSI is "underfollowed/underowned/and undervalued." (These features often go together.) INSI's market cap is already up nine-fold from $.56 per share in summer 1998, which should attract attention, and its products are doing very well. There are few "sure things" in the stock market. Our two main risk issues are: 1. INSI's position could be leap-frogged over time. - This is always a risk in the modern technology era, when product cycles are shorter. - But INSI's technology is complex because it is interdisciplinary and integrative-- and not easily replicable. 2. INSI's share price is volatile. - As a microcap microcap 1. Of or relating to the common stock of a company with a small capitalization, usually between $50 million and $250 million. Microcap stocks tend to experience volatile price movements and are subject to investment fraud schemes. stock, it can be particularly susceptible to general market crunches or investors' evaluation of "tech stocks." - But, volatility also implies upside potential Upside potential The amount by which analysts or investors expect the price of a security may increase. upside potential The potential price or gain that may be expected in a security or in a security average, generally stated as the dollar . Further, INSI is an "event stock" whose future fortunes are usually far more tied to its microeconomics microeconomics Study of the economic behaviour of individual consumers, firms, and industries and the distribution of total production and income among them. It considers individuals both as suppliers of land, labour, and capital and as the ultimate consumers of the final than to broad stock market forces. We expect INSC INSC International Nuclear Safety Center INSC Interoperable Networks for Secure Communications INSC International Nuclear Society Council INSC Iver Nature Study Centre (UK) to "print" (digitally and otherwise) a lot of good news for its shareholders over time! William N. Walling, Jr., CFA (Computer Fraud and Abuse Act of 1986) Signed into law in 1986, the CFA was a significant step forward in criminalizing unauthorized access to computer systems and networks. The Act applies to "federal interest computers" that include any system used by the U.S. Director of Research William N. Walling, Jr., CFA, Consultant - About The Analyst Mr. William Walling, Jr., a Chartered Financial Analyst Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) An experienced financial analyst who has passed examinations in economics, financial accounting, portfolio management, security analysis, and standards of conduct given by the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts. , has several decades of experience on the brokerage and fiduciary sides of the investment profession. These positions include Vice President at White, Weld and Shearson and former Trust Investment Officer at Empire Trust Company and Southeast Bank. He is a former four-time member of the "Institutional Investor Institutional Investor A non-bank person or organization that trades securities in large enough share quantities or dollar amounts that they qualify for preferential treatment and lower commissions. Magazine" All-America Research Team. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from the company covered in this report and from other sources believed to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to accuracy or completeness. Xcel Associates, Inc. or their officers, directors, analysts, employees or consultants have been compensated and may have positions in these securities. |
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