Worst is over for Manhattan co-ops/condos.

Worst is over for Manhattan co-ops/condos

The worst is over!

At least that's the conclusion I've reached based on a year's worth of data along with a slew of sales patterns that have emerged in the New York luxury residential marketplace in recent months.

The data is very clear. In 1990, Manhattan co-op and condominium prices dipped by 17.3 percent, the biggest one-year swoon in the city's history. In 1991, prices were down by only 3.4 percent overall and two critical sectors of the market - the largest and smallest apartment units - were starting to firm.

Perhaps even more significant, a number of patterns are now in evidence that indicates a turnaround has almost assuredly begun. There is a dramatic shortage of large apartment listings, especially on the Upper East Side, and a growing demand and shortening supply of one-bedroom units.

Combine those trends with the current status of prices (low) and interest rates (very low) and you have the main catalysts for the sharp increase in sales activity in recent weeks and the promise of better days ahead.

Needless to say, this would not be the first instance when Manhattan was ahead of the nation in experiencing the beginning of a national downturn and the first to mark the start of a turnaround. Historically, we have been the country's real estate pacesetter and hopefully we will be again this time.

In terms of last year's market, we discovered some other interesting trends as follows:

*For the second time since we've been analyzing such data, Manhattan buyers actually spent less (-1.1 percent) than they had budgeted for their apartment purchase. In 1990, they spent 4.5 percent less *The Downtown loft market suffered smaller losses last year than in 1990, with larger units faring slightly better than smaller ones. Overall, loft prices were down by an average of 2.8 percent compared to 13 percent the previous year *New York co-op and condominium purchasers were able to successfully negotiate 20.5 percent off the original asking price of their apartments last year compared to 23.5 percent in 1990, while 5.8 percent of all purchases sold for the full asking price compared to 3.3 percent the previous year *The average initial offer made by a buyer in 1991 was 26.3 percent below the asking price compared to 29.5 percent a year earlier

*The average buyer actively looked for 3.9 months before purchasing and personally viewed an average of 27 apartments last year. In 1990, the average buyer looked for 5.3 months and saw 24 apartments

*The average listing period for an apartment in 1991 was 26 weeks compared to 30 weeks during the previous year *Last year, the average buyer had an annual income of $298,955 and a net worth of $1.77 million. In 1990, the average purchaser made $285,216 yearly and had a net worth of $1.86 million