Worldwide use of synthetic rubber to grow by 3.4%.

Worldwide synthetic rubber (SR) consumption will rise by 3.4% to 8.4 million metric tons in 2000, according to statistics released by the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IISRP).

Consumption in 1999 showed an increase of 1.5% with consumption of 8.1 mmt.

The Institute also forecasts that over the next five-year period -- 2000 through 2004 -- SR consumption should continue to average a moderate growth rate of 2.9% per annum for a total increase of 16% to 9.4 mmt by 2004.

It should be noted that the IISRP discontinued forecasting latex materials with this forecast. The use of prior forecasts should reflect this change in statistical base.

Of the world's major consuming regions, Asia and Oceania recorded the greatest SR growth in 1999, rising by 4.5% to 1,803 thousands of tons (kt), according to Britt D. Theismann, IISRP Director of Statistical Information. Further, Theismann noted, "the economic recover in Asia is clearly reflected in the rubber growth figures.

"In the lesser consuming regions," he added, "Central Europe continued to show healthy growth, increasing by 3.2% to 286 kt."

Other regions recorded moderate growth in SR use in 1999, Theismann said. Western Europe and North America both experienced flat growth in 1999 at 0.2% and 0.8% respectively.

"Use in China, where growth was uncharacteristically flat in 1998, increased by 3.0%," Theismann said.

In Latin America, where economic recovery is taking place in Brazil and Mexico, SR consumption increased by 1.8% in 1999. The growth rate in Mexico was strong at 6.5%.

In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), where the future remains uncertain, SR use dropped again in 1999, this time by another 5.0%.

In reporting growth by elastomer type in 1999, Theismann said polyisoprene (IR) increased the most, growing by 3.5% to 161 kt.

He reported consumption of other synthetic rubbers in 1999 as follows: Styrene butadiene (SBR), stable at 1.0% at 3,230 kt; polybutadiene (BR), increased by 2.9% to 1,953 kt; ethylene propylene rubber (EPR, both EPM and EPDM) also increased by 2.9% to 842 kt; acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR), increased by 1.8% to 322 kt; polychloropene (CR), which remained effected by substitution, was down by 1% to 291 kt; "other" rubbers, predominately butyl (IIR) and specialty elastomers, increasing by 2.9% to 933 kt.

Theismann said all geographic regions are expected to show gains in SR use over the coming five-year period. China is expected to resume its growth at an impressive 9.6% to nearly 1,080 kt in 2004. In Asia and Oceania, the forecast is for an annual growth rate of 3.2% to 2,110 kt in 2004.

The situation in the CIS remains uncertain. The forecast calls for consumption to remain stagnant at best. Growth in Central Europe is optimistic. It should average 4.4% to 354 kt by 2004. In Western Europe, consumption is expected to grow moderately over the next five years. It is forecast to rise at an annual rate of 1.8% to 1,948 kt in 2004. In the Middle East and Africa, predictions call for a growth rate of 2.8% annually to 216 kt in 2004.

In the Americas, Latin America SR use should increase at a more moderate rate of 1.6% to 631 kt in 2004 while in North America consumption should rise at an annual rate of 2.0% to 2,668 kt in 2004.

Theismann said use of all elastomer types should grow over the next five years as follows: EPR (EP(D)M) should rise 4% per annum to 1,022 kt in 2004; NBR should post annual average increases of 3% to 373 kt; SBR to record an annual growth rate of 3.3% to 3,803 kt; BR should climb an average of 2.9% to reach 2,257 kt; CR to increase at a 1.5% annual rate to 313 kt.

The IISRP also forecasts that consumption of natural rubber (NR) over the five-year term should rise 2.5% annually, although it is recognized that NR could sustain supply problems in the long run.

Pointing out that the IISRP views thermoplastic elastomers (TPEs) as a "below-the-line" item in its long-term forecast, Theismann said worldwide use of TPEs is expected to increase from 1,341 kt in 1999 to 1,699 kt in 2004, reflecting an average annual increase of 4.8%. In North America, TPE use should increase at an annual rate of 5.0% to 647 kt in 2004, while in Latin America consumption is expected to expand annually by 3.7% to 22 kt. In Western Europe, use should grow at an annual rate of 3.6% to 455 kt in 2004, and in Asia and Oceania, it should register an annual average increase of 4.1% to 220 kt by 2004. Consumption of TPEs in China should increase by 6.8% annually to 340 kt. in 2004.

Tire shipments set records

The Rubber Manufacturers Association reported that 1999 saw total of six records set for tire shipments lead by very strong growth in passenger, light truck and commercial truck in both original equipment (OE) and replacement segments. Future tire shipment gains are expected to continue but at a more moderate pace in line with anticipated gross domestic product (GDP) growth and low unemployment rates, for 2000 and beyond.

"1999's tire industry shipment statistics mark the second consecutive year that records were broken in almost all major categories," said RMA President and CEO Donald B. Shea. "We look forward to a third record-setting year as long as our robust domestic economy continues to provide the impetus for strong vehicle sales."

The RMA attributed 1999's record-setting year to several dominate factors including record light vehicle sales, strong GDP and industrial production indicators, record levels of employment, and low inflation. Key findings in the 1999 statistics and projections for 2000 include:

* Original equipment passenger tires which reached a record 61 million units in 1999, a growth of 6.8% over 1998 figures. No further growth is expected for 2000 as domestic passenger vehicle production nears its peak;

* original equipment light truck tires were 1999's largest growth category with a 20.7% increase, or a record 8.4 million units compared to 1998's figure of seven million units. No further gains are expected for 2000 as capacity for domestic light truck vehicle production also nears its limits;

* original equipment medium/widebase truck tires was second in growth to light truck OE with a record 6.9 million units or a 15% growth over 1998's record of six million units. Growth is expected to taper off by a half-million units in 2000 but rebound over the next two or three years to this level again;

* replacement passenger tires broke the 190 million tire barrier with a record 191.9 million tires shipped in 1999 or a 3.5% increase over 1998's level of 185.5. million units;

* replacement "p-metric" light truck (LT) tires (a subset of passenger re-placement tires with light truck appearance and tread characteristics usually found on sport utility vehicles) grew 13.5% in 1999 to 18.2 million units or nearly four million units more than 1998's record of 14.5 million units. The RMA projects that 198 million units will be shipped in 2000, or a 3.2% gain, for yet another record. P-metric tires will also probably establish another record as this subcategory is anticipated to exceed 21 million units or a 18.7% gain over 1999's levels;

* replacement light truck tires - tires with a "LT" designation - saw a record of 33.8 million units shipped in 1999, a 7.8% increase over 1998, and is projected to grow another 5.8% in 2000 to nearly 36 million units.

* replacement medium/wide-base truck tires, representing the sixth major category to set a record in 1999, posted a solid 6.8% growth over 1998's levels to reach a total of 14.6 million units shipped. More growth is expected in 2000 as more than 15 million are projected to be shipped for a 3.5% increase over 1999's levels.

Total tire shipments in 1999 exceeded 316 million units or a 5.3%, 16 million unit, increase over 1998's levels. The RMA projects that this total will be close to 325 million units at the end of 2000 for a annual growth of 2.2%. They also forecasts that this moderate growth percentage will be the approximate year-to-year growth average through 2005 primarily reflecting GDP growth as forecasted by leading economists. However, tire markets with higher than average growth rates between 2000 and 2005 will include the light truck LT designation and p-metric replacement sectors growing at 5.1% and 12.8% per year respectively, "H/V/Z" speed- rated passenger replacement tires growing at a 9.2% annual rate, and performance rated replacement tires growing at 6.5% annual rate.

The RMA said the need for further large increases in imported tires to fulfill domestic demand will come to an end as tire manufacturers increase their domestic production capacity.

Synthetic rubber consumption by region

Synthetic rubber(*)
Region                       1998    1999    2000    2004

North America               2,393   2,413   2,458   2,668
Western Europe              1,783   1,786   1,817   1,948
Asia & Oceania              1,726   1,803   1,871   2,110
Latin America                 571     582     590     631
Middle East & Africa          178     182     188     209
Central Europe                272     281     299     348
Commonwealth of
 Independent States           400     380     380     380
China                         663     683     779   1,080
Total                       7,986   8,110   8,382   9,374

(*) Excludes thermoplastic elastomers (TPES)

Natural rubber consumption by region

Natural rubber(*)
Region                       1998      1999      2000      2004

North America               1,325     1,241     1,253     1,309
Western Europe              1,140     1,175     1,185     1,250
Asia & Oceania              2,543     2,808     2,941     3,425
Latin America                 172       165       165       177
Middle East & Africa          205       215       215       230
Central Europe                132       129       135       157
Commonwealth of                                              55
  Independent States           60        55        55
China                         900       920       935     1,000
Total                       6,477     6,708     6,884     7,603

(*) Excludes consumption by producing countries