Worldwide use of synthetic rubber to grow by 2%.

Worldwide synthetic rubber (SR) consumption will rise by 2% to 10.7 million metric tons in 1999, according to statistics released by the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IISRP).

Consumption in 1998, however, will show only flat growth with consumption of 10.4 million metric tons.

The IISRP also forecasts that over the next five-year period - 1999 through 2003 - SR consumption should continue to average a moderate growth rate of 2.7% per annum for a total increase of 14% to 11.9 mmt by 2003.

Of the world's major consuming regions, Western Europe recorded the greatest growth in 1998, rising by 5.4% to 2,670 thousands of tons (kt), according to Britt D. Theismann, IISRP information and systems director.

"In the lesser consuming regions," he added, "Central Europe continued to show high growth, increasing by 8.4% to 375 kt."

Other regions also recorded significant growth in SR use in 1998, Theismann said. North America extended its economic expansion in 1998 with an increase of 3.1% to 3,293 kt.

The Asian economic crisis was evident in the Far East in 1998, with consumption decreasing by 8.3% in Asia and Oceania. "Use in China, where growth has consistently run between seven and ten percent, decreased by .8%," Theismann said.

In Latin America, the Brazilian economic crisis halted the high SR growth rates of recent years. Consumption fell by 4.0% last year.

In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), where the future is uncertain until political and economic stability are reestablished, SR use dropped again in 1998, this time by another 11.1%.

EP rubbers fastest growing

In reporting growth by elastomer type in 1998, Theismann said ethylene propylene rubber (EPR, both EPM and EPDM) increased the most, growing by 3.2% to 814 kt.

He reported consumption of other synthetic robbers in 1998 as follows:

* Styrene butadiene (SBR), stable at 0.8% at 3,300 kt;

* polybutadiene (BR), down by 3.4% to 1,905 kt mainly due to significant decreases in Asia and Oceania, China and Latin America (other regions saw increases in BR);

* Acrylonitrile butadiene (NBR), flat at -0.2% at 320 kt;

* polychloropene (CR), which remained affected by substitution, down by 4.7% to 294 kt;

* so-called "other" rubbers, predominately polyisoprene (IR) and butyl (IIR), increasing slightly by 0.8% to 1,131 kt.

All regions to grow

Theismann said all geographic regions are expected to show gains in SR use over the coming five-year period. "After a negative year of growth in 1998, China is expected to resume its growth at an impressive 9.0% to nearly 1,098 kt in 2003," he added. "In Asia and Oceania, we're forecasting an annual growth rate of 2.6% to 2,413 kt in 2003.

The situation in the CIS remains uncertain. "Our forecast calls for an annual average growth rate of 2.4%, but the rate will depend on economic stabilization in the region," Theismann said.

Growth in Central Europe is optimistic. It should average 4.6% to 470 kt by 2003.

In Western Europe, consumption is expected to grow more slowly over the next five years. It is forecast to rise at an annual rate of 1.9% to 2,940 kt in 2003. In the Middle East and Africa, predictions call for a growth rate of 2.4% annually to 250 kt in 2003.

In the Americas, Latin America should increase use at a more moderate rate of 2.4% to 743 kt in 2003, while in North America consumption should rise at an annual rate of 1.5% to 3,555 kt in 2003.

Theismann said use of all elastomer types should grow over the next five years as follows:

* EPR (EP(D)M) should rise 3.8% per annum to 980 kt in 2003;

* NBR to post annual average increases of 3.3% to 375 kt;

* SBR to record an annual growth rate of 2.9% to 3,813 kt;

* BRs to climb an average of 2.5% to reach 2,153 kt;

* CR to increase at a 1.7% annual rate to 321 kt.

The IISRP also forecasts that consumption of natural rubber (NR) over the five-year term should rise 2.4 percent annually, with higher than normal growth rates in Asia & Oceania, China, Central Europe and the CIS. In Western Europe and North America, NR use should increase moderately at around 1.2 and 1.3% annually to 1,150 and 1,300, respectively.

Pointing out that the IISRP views thermoplastic elastomers (TPEs) as a "below-the-line" item in its long-term forecast, Theismann said worldwide use of TPEs is expected to increase from 1,310 kt in 1998 to 1,701 kt in 2003, reflecting an average annual increase of 5.4%. In North America, TPE use should increase at an annual rate of 5.0% to 614 kt in 2003, while in Latin America, consumption is expected to expand annually by 1.4% to 22 kt. In Western Europe, use should grow at an annual rate of 4.0% to 450 kt in 2003, and in Asia and Oceania, it should register an annual average increase of 3.7% to 206 kt by 2003. Consumption of TPEs in China (reported by the IISRP for the first time as a separate line item) should increase by 9.0% to 400 kt in 2003.

The IISRP is an international not-for-profit trade association with 50 corporate members domiciled in 20 countries who produce 90% of the world supply of synthetic rubber. The annual forecast is based on worldwide industry data compiled by the Institute's regional statistical committees.

Table 1 - SR consumption by region

Synthetic rubber (1)
Region                     1997      1998     1999     2000

North America              3,193    3,293    3,325    3,555
Western Europe             2,533    2,670    2,718    2,940
Asia & Oceania             2,314    2,123    2,160    2,413
Latin America                686      659      658      743
Middle East & Africa         214      222      226      250
Central Europe               346      375      396      470
Commonwealth of
Independent States           450      400      400      450
China/Asia CPEC (2)          719      713      783    1,098
Total                     10,455   10,454   10,664   11,918

(1) Excludes thermoplastic elastomers

(2) Centrally planned economy countries

(3) Excludes consumption by producing countries

Table 2 - NR consumption by region

Natural rubber(3)
Region                       1997      1998      1999      2000

North America               1,179     1,219     1,234     1,300
Western Europe              1,005     1,082     1,100     1,150
Asia & Oceania              2,386     2,601     2,714     3,093
Latin America                 294       301       308       333
Middle East & Africa          200       205       215       230
Central Europe                120       130       140       165
Commonwealth of                75        60        60        75
 Independent States
China/Asia CPEC (2)           870       900       920       980
Total                       6,129     6,498     6,691     7,326

(1) Excludes thermoplastic elastomers

(2) Centrally planned economy countries

(3) Excludes consumption by producing countries

Table 3 - new rubber consumption by region (000 metric tons)

Total rubber
Region                   1997     1998     1999     2000

North America           4,372    4,512    4,559    4,855
Western Europe          3,538    3,752    3,818    4,090
Asia & Oceania          4,700    4,724    4,874    5,506
Latin America             981      960      966    1,077
Middle East & Africa      414      427      441      480
Central Europe            466      505      536      635
Commonwealth of           525      460      460      525
 Independent States
China/Asia CPEC         1,589    1,613    1,703    2,078
Total                  16,585   16,952   17,356   19,244
Table 4 - new rubber consumption by type worldwide

Product                    1997     1998     1999     2000

SBR solid                 3,275    3,300    3,379    3,813
SBR latex                   426      439      447      483
Carboxylated latex        1,755    1,814    1,846    2,029
Polybutadiene             1,972    1,905    1,957    2,153
Ethylene propylene          788      814      836      980
Polychloroprene             309      294      299      321
Nitrile solid               320      320      323      375
Nitrile latex                37       37       37       37
Other synthetics          1,123    1,131    1,141    1,277
China/Asia CPEC

Total SR                    450      400      400      450
Total synthetic rubber   10,455   10,454   10,664   11,918
Natural rubber            6,129    6,498    6,691    7,326
Total new rubber         16,585   16,952   17,356   19,244
Synthetic percent         63.0%    61.7%    61.4%    61.9%
TPEs                      1,236    1,310    1,395    1,701
Thousand metric tons