Worldwide SR consumption to reach 10.8 mmt.

By 1997, the world will consume nearly 17 million metric tons of synthetic and natural rubber, according to the five-year forecast by the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers. This reflects an overall average growth rate of 2.6% over the fiveyear term, and is the result of an SR consumption recovery that began in 1992 in North America and spread to Western Europe and Asia. SR alone will reach consumption levels of almost 11 million metric tons by '97.

A dramatic downturn in SR consumption by the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) of 240,000 metric tons in 1992 was primarily responsible for the overall flat growth rate of 0.1% experienced in 1992. SR consumption in the CIS, which has been historically high for geo-political reasons, represents more than 95% of total new rubber consumption. The trend in the CIS is toward more normal patterns of SR and NR consumption. Worldwide, a growth rate of 1.0% is anticipated for SR in 1993. SR consumption by region All geographic regions are expected to show gains in SR over the five-year period of 1992-1997. Leading in growth will be the Centrally Planned Economy countries of Asia with a total increase of 34%, followed by Latin America at 20%. These regions will see annual rates at 6.0% and 3.7% respectively. Overall, world consumption of SR will increase 12% over the forecast period, IISRP predicts.

Synthetic rubber growth in other geographic regions will reflect annual increases through 1997. Asia and Oceania will see 12% growth at an annual rate of 2.3%; North America will increase 10% at an annual rate of 2.0%; Western Europe will increase 7% at an annual rate of 1.4%; Middle East and Africa will see 16% growth at an annual rate of 3%; Central Europe will grow 9% at an annual rate of 1.7%; and the CIS will grow 15% at an annual rate of 2.8%. Annual rates are averaged over the five year term.

Consumption by type

Regarding the various types of SR, EPDM is expected to represent 6.6% of total SR in 1993 and experience a 5.8% increase in consumption. Carboxylated SBR latex will represent 13.4% of SR consumption and is expected to increase 2.7% in 1993. Gains are also expected for nitrile (solid and latex), polybutadiene, SBR solid (emulsion and solution) and polychloroprene. Tires and tire products, traditionally the top SR consumers, utilize

Consumption of natural rubber Overall, natural rubber growth is expected to level off in 1993 at the 2.1% level following strong growth in 1992 of 5.5%. Over the five-year term, NR is expected to increase at a 2.9% annual rate. NR represents around 36% of total new rubber consumption worldwide when including NR producing country consumption.

Thermoplastic elastomers

Worldwide use of TPEs is expected to increase from 726,000 metric tons in 1992 to 982,000 mt in 1997, reflecting an overall gain of more than 35% for an annual rate of 6.2%. In North America, TPEs are expected to expand annually by 7%, or 40% over the five year period. Demand in Asia and Oceania, and Western Europe, should register annual increases of 2.0% and 3.7% respectively. In Latin America, TPEs are expected to more than double to 16,600 metric tons by 1997.